EPTTL Mafia XXXV
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why
United States215 Posts
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why
United States215 Posts
It seems to me that the annul vs. LSB debate is distracting from the issue at hand, hunting inactives. This is clearly the way to avoid an apathetic town. The list that LunarDestiny suggested isn’t the best idea. If there are 10 people on the list, then no one will feel pressured to respond unless everyone else on the list is responding. They will just be lurking amongst the people on the list who aren’t responding on the list. The best way to pressure inactives is to vote for them and actually intend to lynch them unless they contribute something useful. As such, I'm going to pick someone that hasn't posted yet and put my vote on them. If they come to the thread and contribute then I'll move my vote off them. My pick is GeorgeClooney. | ||
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On December 28 2010 11:42 LSB wrote: Let's refocus on inactives. There are two lurkers/inactives that have voted so far. 6. TheMango- I consider him a lurker as he hasn't offered insight on anything. 30. ~OpZ~- Hasn't done much in thread. He has PMed me, but I don't know if he is actually active. If why/Brocket/GeorgeClooney gets around to voting/posting, we could switch the lynch. But currently we should push to lynch the people who actually aren't in danger of being modkilled. People probably with say that I have a conflict of interest with TheMango since he voted for me. So I'm find with voting off ~OpZ~ Lol, you posted exactly what I did. I didn't think about the modkill angle, and I'm going to move my vote to Opz so as to actually pressure someone instead of splintering the vote. | ||
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On December 28 2010 12:53 orgolove wrote: I hardly feel that focusing on inactives, especially on Day 1, is a good idea at this point. I highly doubt mafia will be inactive on day 1, exactly to deflect the kind of suspicions you are raising. It's much more likely, probability wise, for there to be mafia among the people who already posted, compared to the inactives. hell, I know I'd be more inclined to post and make time during the holidays if I was red 0.0 I'm getting really suspicious of the people who keep trying to refocus the town on lynching inactives instead of HUNTING REDS. i.e. why, LSB, ilovejonn. I'm especially looking at LSB right now, given his past track record and his current behavioral patterns. Part of the purpose of Day 1 is to foster a good town environment. One of the major ways a town environment can be bad is to have too much inactivity, as then there are tons of people who can just slip under the radar and it becomes a RNG as to picking the mafia out of them. If we set a precedent early for strongly suspecting and lynching inactives, then people are more likely to post and we'll have a better town environment. Of course, if there's a good case against someone, then we should by all means lynch them. | ||
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On December 28 2010 14:06 Insanious wrote: Alright, I went through and looked at posts and here's what I found: 1. Brocket (If replaced, let me know, might of missed it) 2. GeorgeClooney (If replaced, let me know, might of missed it) 3. Orgolove | 4. ~OpZ~ | 5. ShoCkeyy || 6. bumatlarge || 7. Tevo || 8. Soulfire || 9. why ||| 10. RebirthOfLeGenD ||| 11. tree.hugger ||| 12. Mr.Zergling |||| 13. deconduo |||| 14. Ryuu314 |||| 15. Insanious |||| This is in decending order for number of posts, the |'s represent 1 post. Anyone with over 4 posts I thought that they had posted enough to not be 100% lurking. As such, I think these 15 people (go go half of the game) need to start posting more (yes I realize I'm in the list too... but ya). I haven't looked at WHAT people have posted, just how many times. So ya... with a little more activity, scum hunting will be a lot easier. So here's goes my random vote, going to be on Shockeyy, you were a lurking mafia in Pokemafia, and your lurking now. Post more, and lets prove your innocence  .Since you chose a person at random, why not vote for Opz? There are already three people voting for him to pressure him (also, he semi-lurked in HP mafia and ended up being mafia then). A fourth vote makes it more likely that there will actually be a response to the pressure, as one vote is easy to just ignore. If Opz posts, then we can pressure Shockeyy next I promise. | ||
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That said, I still think backing off LSB is probably the best course of action as he HAS claimed that, and if he doesn't follow through then we have a confirmed lynch. But if what he claims is impossible then he might have just thrown it out there to confuse us and buy a day or two. | ||
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I also like RoL's analysis of Seraph, and I'm worried that Seraph hasn't responded to it yet. He may just be hoping to ride the suspicion out and hope we forget about it given that it's been several pages since the analysis was posted. | ||
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On December 29 2010 12:36 seRapH wrote: Just finished catching up -_-'' didn't expect to be out all day. I still don't see why LSB was scummy at all. I mean look at annul's "analysis": http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=7419308
Seriously the whole inactive thing was just a talking point, and now I'm just thoroughly convinced that you're almost certainly a very closed-minded townie or scum. Hopefully the blue actions will yield something good so we won't have to waste a lynch on you though. + Show Spoiler + Oh hey I just mentioned blues again, I'm probably blue/scum right? Honestly, this post comes off as very scummy to me. Seraph doesn't show up all day after he is FoSed by RoL and then comes in 30 minutes after the lynch to berate everyone on how they messed up. It feels like he is trying to take credit for being against the LSB lynch when he actually he just wasn't a part of it either way. Also, he doesn't say who he would have voted for (evidently he wouldn't have supported a Brocket lynch given that the inactive thing was just a talking point). | ||
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The only real way Insanious came off as scummy was by his choice of Brocket over Seraph. Since Brocket was totally inactive (and hadn't even posted an excuse at the time) this seemed like a pure inactivity lynch and, instead of doing it completely randomly, just used the fact that Brocket's posting activity was different than his past behavior as the deciding factor. Also, it's not like the "let's lynch an inactive" thing only started when it was obvious LSB was going to be lynched, he had stated very early that he wanted to follow that strategy. While Seraph may have been the better choice at the time, I thought that the fact that he was at least posting some gave him the opportunity to defend himself. Of course, as I and others have said, Seraph has continued to post scummily, and so I am going to vote for him now. | ||
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On December 29 2010 16:10 seRapH wrote: Responses in blue RoL your analysis really doesn't say too much about exactly why you think I'm mafia. A major point of the Seraph's defense is that he never would never actually want to lynch an inactive player. Instead, he just wants to put pressure on players so that they will be more likely to post more. Ok, fine, right? On December 31 2010 07:33 seRapH wrote: Soulfire Few points here: He’s new, he doesn’t want to out himself, and hands lurkers the excuse of not caring. First point isn’t incriminating, but the other two are pretty notable. Ok, fine, Pandain wagon was bullshit, I have no clue why anyone joined it at all, town or not. What I do find interesting is that apparantly Pandain is "pretty damn helpful" while LSB, evidently, has not been. I don’t really get this. I’m thinking that if we can get Soulfire lynched or nightkilled then annul can be cleared of most suspicions. Once again he pushes lynching lurkers too. Also, people don’t switch roles midway (or at least not in this setup), so a change in character indicates they’re either dodging an accusation or real life problems. Completely dodges the LSB/Annul situation by going for a new bandwagon on brocket. Also staying under the radar by following pandain quite closely: Conclusion: Very likely scum. Not too many posts at all, and none of them offering any original insight. imo this is a better lynch than anyone else so far, but Mr Wiggles earns second place. If Soulfire dodges the lynch then I’d at least like someone to DT check him. But wait! Then Seraph posts this analysis of soulfire who is as close to inactive as we have at this point. After saying that he never intended to lynch inactives, he then goes ahead and posts an analysis of one and pushes a lynch on him. But there is still one possibility left: that Seraph wants to pressure soulfire into posting more, like he said his original intention was back during day 1. On December 31 2010 14:44 seRapH wrote: Get yourself banned and you'll see the relevance ;D I keep forgetting that not everybody knows what they're doing. =\ I'll give Soulfire a pass for now but he really needs to show up and take some sides  I guess pressure wasn't really the goal either. The only conclusion seems to be that Seraph posted that analysis for no real reason except to seem like he was contributing. At this point, it would take a lot for me to move my vote off of Seraph. | ||
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Annul: I agree that the whole thing is extremely suspicious. I can't make heads or tails of the whole Day 1, I think he could be red or green based off of that. I'm very interested in his defense, which seems to be taking place as I am typing. I will make my decision to vote/not vote based on his defense (as for the first time he'll be talking about something not LSB or spam). Orgolove: I can definitely see him being red, but I would like to note that in HP mafia, as mafia, he threw a bunch of FoS's around on town, which he hasn't done this game. But, his defense has been horrible so far this game, and it seems like he is content to just sit around and let the votes shift around. This seems like a mafia move to me...I'd really like to see a better defense and perhaps some contributions from him. I'd be content to vote for orgolove if no one else wants to vote for Seraph and annul responds to pressure well. But again, I'd rather vote for Seraph or at least make him a lynch on day 3. Also, I'm going to vote for double lynch because of all the reasons everyone has said. | ||
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On January 02 2011 07:53 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: alright, after my hiatus from activity I will return. First off I know we only have 4 hours left for voting so I am going to say this. Everyone vote annul I will explain my reasoning in a post within the next hour but it is important that anyone on now starts voting for him. I will begin my analysis shortly. I will vote for annul when I am convinced he is red/has the best chance of being red among the people who it is possible to lynch. At the moment we still have 4 hours. I will definitely be back on after you post and before the deadline to make a final decision. | ||
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Anyway, orgolove could be mafia, but RoL makes a lot of really good points. | ||
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#1: Meapak - This guy seems very likely to be scum. a) Voting Debacle: Pretty self-explanatory. Gets off of annul when it looks like annul's actually under some pressure then gets back on him to seem like he's not avoiding the obvious lynch. Here is his explanation: On January 04 2011 00:31 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Ok to explain my last second voting drama. I was in irc with pandain, and everyone else who is cool enough to hang out there. Barundar and I are talking and then pandain just jumps all over me with questions about orgolove and annul (at this point I think pandain was still voting orgo). I'm like ok whatever so I answer but he wont respond when I ask him questions. Pandain was trying to get me to vote orgo through pm and irc but I thought orgo was innocent based on the fact that there was never a counterbandwago. Pandain didn't like this reason and he's getting pretty aggressive and then he switches his vote to annul saying something like "I wanna control this lynch" this sounded so scummy to me so I checked the votes and saw that this put annul one vote ahead of orgo. I didn't want pandain to have hammer power over the whole lynch so I switched to seraph because at this point I didn't want to be part of that mess. However after subsequent discussion with Barundar, a desire not to be left out of the action and a conviction that Orgo was town made me switch me vote back to annul. I don't think pandain is scummy anymore and I'm 100% sure barundar is legit so my vote is going on mango because I've always found him to be inexplicably scummy along with his vote for barundar. And mr. zergling who is probably the most obvious scum we have right now. I guess this makes sense until you get to his explanation about why he eventually decided to switch back to annul. He says that he "wanted to be a part of the action". Of course, his reason for switching off was that he "didn't want to be a part of the mess". One of these doesn't make sense, since the only actual difference between these two times was that annul was basically guaranteed to be lynched by the time Meapak switched back to annul. Yet his attitude inexplicably changed. Insanious' analysis in day 2 was also really good and I think the fact that it was largely ignored makes it more likely that Meapak is scum (since why wouldn't mafia have jumped on it???) b) Seraph! Here is a link to RoL's analysis and to mine. Since the last post, seraph has posted just once, a non-game-related goodbye to annul. Again, the post was a little over an hour after the lynch. So, basically, it goes like this: Day 1: Seraph gets called on looking scummy by RoL and he stops posting until right after the lynch. Day 2: Seraph gets called on looking scummy by me and then he stops posting until right after the lynch. Draw your own conclusions, but he's looks like scum to me. | ||
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On January 03 2011 22:21 Pandain wrote: Alright also, me and baruder have started a town circle, including those we know are confirmed townies. DT(s), if you have checked someone who was green, as long as it wasn't annul, they are confirmed town. Feel free to claim to them. Furthormore I am opening up an idea for the town to discuss, and before anyone does anything we should discuss it in thread. I have started a town circle with a few select individuals. I am willing to accept role claims. Now, there is a chance that I am not "confirmed" yet, despite the fact I have been roleblocked, and despite the fact I helped get annul lynched, and despite the fact that I have been one of the most active individuals in the thread. But I feel that for the reasons above, I am basically confirmed. Furthormore, unless a vigi claims whether to me or in thread that they shot node/RoL, opz is confirmed as well. Should we claim to him? Should we claim to me? I AM in a town circle with Opz, but this must be thought out before anything else. If I have medics with me, I can coordinate who to protect(so then not everyone protects me for instance, + Show Spoiler + or maybe they will, you can't tell mafia! In addition, I'd like to point out that if DT's feel uncomfortable claiming to me, we can also have people they checked claim to me, and we can work from there. So, what do you guys think? Blues, I don't think this is a good idea (at least not with Pandain at the center of it). The reason is simple: we haven't confirmed Pandain yet. At the moment, we are obviously ahead in this game with all DT's and medics alive and 2 mafia down. Pandain, despite all his pro-town actions (and I think it is very likely that he is town) is not 100% confirmed. He hasn't proved he is DT (he has only checked DrH who died before pandain claimed and then he got roleblocked but mafia could just not use their roleblock on a townie so no one could counterclaim). If he is red, then it would be a disaster so there's just no reason to have pandain lead this town circle when he isn't 100% confirmed. Now Opz, on the other hand, I can see claiming to if no one can think of a way he wouldn't be 100% confirmed. With no vig counterclaim, I can't think of a way for him not to be confirmed, so a town circle should form with Opz at the helm. Of course, the best way to do things would be to have a DT confirm people and then build a circle from the people he confirmed. But I guess there is no way to verify a DT is legit until he picks up a red and then we lynch the red, correct? So maybe the DTs are waiting until that happens so they can confirm themselves. | ||
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Now, onto lynch candidates: Here's the analysis I made of Seraph Day 3. On January 04 2011 08:26 why wrote: b) Seraph! Here is a link to RoL's analysis and to mine. Since the last post, seraph has posted just once, a non-game-related goodbye to annul. Again, the post was a little over an hour after the lynch. So, basically, it goes like this: Day 1: Seraph gets called on looking scummy by RoL and he stops posting until right after the lynch. Day 2: Seraph gets called on looking scummy by me and then he stops posting until right after the lynch. Draw your own conclusions, but he's looks like scum to me. I think it is still largely true. He also hasn't responded to the analysis. Since then Seraph has misunderstood exactly how roleblocking interacted with the Veteran ability and revealed that he believed that the number of remaining mafia is four and that he didn't realize that the information wasn't released. I don't think either of these facts are definitively town or mafia (I just keep coming up with wifom), but I thought I'd mention them for completeness. Anyway, I still think he's mafia, so my vote is still on him. | ||
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On January 08 2011 08:16 ShoCkeyy wrote: You don't get the point of this game... Reds to make themselves non noticable of course they can post like this... Lol. You don't get the point of this, do you. Even at this point, when we're so close the lynch, we've seen not a single counter bandwagon, nor a single post defending him. Is that not extremely suspicious? We've already seen ~OpZ~ make a mistake in hitting LSB. And we've also seen that following Pandain's lead flatly killed two townies outright, one of them being blue. And yet all the town is just sheeping along with their claims, without a single bit of hard evidence against them. [/QUOTE] Well, first I am going to point out the obvious and say that you are defending Seraph. Also, it would be useful for you to suggest an alternative (or at least justify your choice of Darth) if don't think Seraph is scum. I honestly still think that Seraph is mafia, I think he's been acting so scummy all game he isn't really in a position to defend himself at the moment because in the past all he's done is ignore any attack or respond to it extremely late (like after the current lynch). If he defends himself now, it will be such a departure from past behavior that he'll just end up seeming guilty and we will lynch him anyway. His best defense at the moment is to hope that the lack of defense is enough of a defense to keep him from being lynched. However, you are correct in that if things go as they are now we are going to get basically no information from this lynch, since it isn't really close at the moment and people aren't talking about why they are doing what they are doing. There are a lot of people who voted without any real explanation as to why. Mr. Wiggles, Jackel58, tree.hugger, themango, and ilovejohn have all voted without any explanation. Even if you don't have anything new to add, just say why you are voting for them over the other candidates in your own words (today the main ones are Seraph, Shockeyy and Darth). This is a prime way to generate some discussion and assess how good people's reasons are for voting. Everyone should be posting a reason for their vote in thread, and should even be defending it in thread if it gets attacked (as orgolove is doing right now to all Seraph voters). | ||
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On January 08 2011 08:19 orgolove wrote: Lol. You don't get the point of this, do you. Even at this point, when we're so close the lynch, we've seen not a single counter bandwagon, nor a single post defending him. Is that not extremely suspicious? We've already seen ~OpZ~ make a mistake in hitting LSB. And we've also seen that following Pandain's lead flatly killed two townies outright, one of them being blue. And yet all the town is just sheeping along with their claims, without a single bit of hard evidence against them. Well, first I am going to point out the obvious and say that you are defending Seraph. Also, it would be useful for you to suggest an alternative (or at least justify your choice of Darth) if don't think Seraph is scum. I honestly still think that Seraph is mafia, I think he's been acting so scummy all game he isn't really in a position to defend himself at the moment because in the past all he's done is ignore any attack or respond to it extremely late (like after the current lynch). If he defends himself now, it will be such a departure from past behavior that he'll just end up seeming guilty and we will lynch him anyway. His best defense at the moment is to hope that the lack of defense is enough of a defense to keep him from being lynched. However, you are correct in that if things go as they are now we are going to get basically no information from this lynch, since it isn't really close at the moment and people aren't talking about why they are doing what they are doing. There are a lot of people who voted without any real explanation as to why. Mr. Wiggles, Jackel58, tree.hugger, themango, and ilovejohn have all voted without any explanation. Even if you don't have anything new to add, just say why you are voting for them over the other candidates in your own words (today the main ones are Seraph, Shockeyy and Darth). This is a prime way to generate some discussion and assess how good people's reasons are for voting. Everyone should be posting a reason for their vote in thread, and should even be defending it in thread if it gets attacked (as orgolove is doing right now to all Seraph voters). | ||
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I also want to hear everyone's opinions on pandain. I think his Day 1 panic back to LSB off of Brocket is pretty bad, but of course he also led the charge on his own godfather. I honestly don't know what to think. Anyway, here is an analysis of ilovejohn. I chose him because he hasn't posted much of substance lately, so I was curious. First off, I'd like to say that ilovejohn hasn't posted his opinions all that much, and so its hard to get a solid read on him. On December 29 2010 13:02 ilovejonn wrote: No flaming. And orgolove sorry doesn't do anything. Town should think for themselves not just read someone elses analysis and be like oh he sounds right i'll vote for xxx. Come on, from the way LSB is putting himself out as a blue role willing to sacrifice himself to prove a day or 2 later that he is indeed blue, why would any mafia be so reckless? Read. Think. Vote. YOU all have control of who you can vote. Use your brains. Not even sure if this is allowed, but read this: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Antrax's_Guide_to_Being_a_Good_Townie This quote isn't scummy at all. But it does express a philosophy of mafia, which is basically to think for yourself and not to let other people's reasons guide your thinking. This feels like an honest post and I think that ilovejohn actually believes it. Now, let's see how ilovejohn has held to this philosophy so far. Keep in mind that you would expect him to post solid reasons for his votes. On January 02 2011 10:26 ilovejonn wrote: Got home just now. Read RoL's analysis + few pages back. Personally do not like annul's defense. Will post more in the future, need rest now. = = Two things about this. First of all, the fact that ilovejohn voted for annul makes it less likely that he is mafia. But he only voted for annul when it was too late, so it doesn't clear him completely. It is important is that he didn't post his reasons for voting, aside from the fact that he agreed with other people. It seems like it would be hard to fabricate reasons to vote as mafia. On January 02 2011 12:31 ilovejonn wrote: I loved RoL's analysis. Doesn't add anything other than calling attention to his vote for annul. If he was town, he wouldn't have needed to do this. Also, it goes away from his whole "think for yourself" philosophy. On January 03 2011 15:15 ilovejonn wrote: I'd say Brocket, he's the only one that voted for you. My votes for double lynch are going to be on Mr. Zergling based on Barundar's analysis + Meapak as of now. I do hope we at least get 1 scum out of this double lynch. Gonna have to review a lot of posts to find other lurking targets. Again, votes based solely on other people's opinions. But, of course, FoS's Brocket (but again, not a huge support either way since he never actually pushed him and brocket never really came close to being lynched). These are really most of the things that ilovejohn has done this game. Honestly, I don't think the support for or against him is overwhelming. It is a bit weird that he specifically said that you shouldn't just be like "oh he sounds right I'll pick xxx" and then proceeds to do that for the rest of the game, but he could be a townie who is having trouble reading people. Another possibility is that he is mafia who is deathly afraid of having an anti-town opinion (thus the votes for annul and FoSing of brocket). Overall, if I had to rank him on a scale of 1-10 where 1 is confirmed townie and 10 is definitely mafia, I would give ilovejohn a 6 for slightly more likely to be mafia than not. | ||
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