EPTTL Mafia XXXIV: Pokemafia
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
On December 10 2010 10:47 LSB wrote: Although lynching inactives is always a start, we shouldn't discount the power of day one analysis I've seen it many times actually. Kenpachi/Coagulation (Almost, but we switched)- Deconduo's Don't lose your village game Me/Pyrr- TLMMM 2 Masq- Haunted Mafia Bill Murray (Almost, but Ace made us switch x.x)- Penalty Mafia And many others... I don't like lynching inactives Day 1 because we run the risk of lynching someone that is going to be modkilled. Unless I am mistaken, DocH is running a rather strict modkill policy: miss a vote = modkill. So if we lynch someone that wasn't going to vote anyway, it's rather redundant. I am a man that strives for efficiency. | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
I already have 3 votes. Do I smell or something? | ||
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On December 10 2010 11:06 LSB wrote: Some of us (me) carry friendly grudges (my first mafia game) ^^ Oh haha, I forgot about that. If anything that should be like a compliment of sorts. Or something. | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
On December 10 2010 11:11 LSB wrote: Oh. By Inactive, I mean someone who is lurking, maybe making one token post in the thread that isn't anything new and doesn't attempt to contribute anything at all, but still votes every day. These are the uninterested townies, the lurkers, and the people studying for finals. Oh i see, we were kinda using different contextual definitions. Yeah by inactive i was thinking of the people that just never show up, not the 1 post 1 vote lurkers. In my experience most modkills happen during Day 1 or Day 2, a period during which it is difficult to distinguish true inactives from lurkers since they both exhibit similar behavior (i.e. very little). Lynching an 'inactive' Day 1 is always a nice neutral ground, but I feel that many people offer it as an excuse since they don't know what else to do (the same reason RNG always comes up, which is IMO worse than lynching inactives). | ||
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Infundibulum
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On December 10 2010 11:25 Gabriel wrote: Is it really efficient at this point lynch an active player over the inactive that is going to die anyways?? Really? I mean mafia is not going to die because he doesnt vote, blues are not going to die because they dont vote. Meh i want to flip infundibulum badly. It is stupid to lynch someone that is going to be modkilled because that is like not lynching anybody at all. That is what my first post was trying to say. | ||
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On December 10 2010 11:35 Gabriel wrote: Well now that you have started posting it is not "lynching anybody" to lynch you. And the big fallacy there is that we just dont know who is going to be modkilled because it is enough for a guy to vote or even abstain at the last minute. So your argument is: we shouldnt vote inactives because they are going to be modkilled, except that the ones that we want to get sniped are those that are actually not modkilled (whatever the definition of inactive you may have). Im still voting Infundibulum. Kenpachi is still missing? There is no fallacy. It is hard to distinguish active lurkers from genuinely inactive players during Day 1 to Day 2. In the interest of not running the risk wasting a town lynch I am of the opinion that we can start to eliminate active lurkers around Day 3 or probably even 2 if things go well. If you disagree with me that is fine, but I'm not sure how your logic is leading you to think that I'm red. | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=JEEP's_Tells_for_Finding_the_Cop i would ignore the numbers part. there are some interesting articles on the mafia scum wiki, but do not take them as gospel. i gather that the playstyle over there is somewhat different. | ||
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Infundibulum
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And because the medic wants to find the cop so he can protect him. | ||
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On December 10 2010 13:09 Hesmyrr wrote: ...What? (More specifically, encouraging Cop to hide his cop-tells while encouraging Medic to protect the people who are showing cop-tells.) i know it's contradictory. but it is true that medics want to protect dts and mafia want to kill dts. i think the real point is that it does not at all hurt town to read that article, which seemed to me was what LSB was implying. | ||
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In a larger game like this medics are probably better off focusing on protecting people that are actively protown and the detective is better off not being found out. Hence me posting the ways that people tend to find the detective, so he can catch himself from falling into any common tells. | ||
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Infundibulum
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On December 11 2010 03:20 LSB wrote: For the DocH, + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2010 10:48 DoctorHelvetica wrote: and BrownBear in salem! i started that wagon ;o That didn't count, as far as I know it was Ghrur who switched the vote for you guys! If Kenpachi was scum on the other hand... Gabriel. The key thing we have to look at Gabriel is why he decided to Accuse Kenpachi. Is this because he is honestly trying to scumhunt, or is he pressured and wants to redirect the lynch The Kenpachi push looks like he is seeing someone that is lurking and wants to figure out what he is. The key point that points me is that he wants to DT check, not lynch Kenpachi (Whoops I gtg brb) Yeah i think it's obvious from Gabe's tone that he was feeling pressured. He's still picking at specific people which is more than many of us have done. Though, I don't see how are you going to determine who is lurking when players still haven't posted and it's just several hours into the game? Kenpachi hasn't done a whole lot besides defend himself either, which is something we should be picking up on. If he doesn't contribute besides defending himself then that's suspicious IMO. There's still the rest of the Day 1 though. Anyway, i don't really think Gabe is red right now. The problem though is that pretty much all the town discussion ended up focused on him which is bad because it lets other people get away with not contributing. | ||
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2. nbtnbt5 6. DarthThienAn 7. StormTemplar 12. ghrur 22. Shockeyy 25. tree.hugger | ||
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On December 11 2010 04:28 LSB wrote: The problem isn't that his post came early. 5 hours is a lot of time and enough to get a feel for how people act I disagree with this, especially considering the wide range of time zones people are in on TL. | ||
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On December 11 2010 04:15 Hesmyrr wrote: There is one possible reason why I am willing to give Gabriel null-read for now, but I am going to wait for him to come and explain himself first to see if his argument agrees with mine. Am i the only one that thinks this is a rather pointless post? | ||
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Infundibulum
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i think i'm going to put my vote on zeks. this isn't a retaliatory vote, but mostly i don't want to see the votes spread out around like 5 targets, but rather 2-3 because that makes voting analysis much easier later on. as for zeks' play, let me just say that he is almost always like this no matter what color he is. the short posts and lack of activity make him harder to read whether he is town or mafia and i've seen a few games where he actively lurks (both green and red) and tends to get away with it. i don't know how much i think he is red but i think him or kenpachi are both fine choices (at least right now, so much changes in 12 hours that everything is gonna be different more than likely because they will come and make their cases etc). that is all the time i really have to post. just try not to get spread out on several targets because this lets the mafia tip the vote to a town player. | ||
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On December 13 2010 05:33 DarthThienAn wrote: Brocket playing the newbie card quite a bit, which I don't like. But herpdederp.. This is the kind of useless post that you should look out for. What does it say? What does it do for the town? Absolutely nothing, except give Brocket an easy way out. Can easily be interpreted as a "I might need to switch my vote later on to save my scumbuddy." What does this post even mean? How do you know someone picking him is mafia? Other than the fact that you're mafia and you noticed that one of you is voting for Gabriel? Yet another wishy-washy, non-committal post. Especially the bolded part. Cool, so you've told us that Kenpachi more likely mafia than Gabriel. What about zeks? You read the analysis. You "took it with a grain of salt." "Massive sigh." Good acting  How do you know it was the mafia that framed Kenpachi? Why are you disappoint? A townie died. tbh, I don't see what all the rage is about Gabriel's posting. It's somewhat hard to understand sometimes but it's not as terrible/lacking as some others in the thread, and he's made several good points during the first day. Start contributing your own thoughts to the thread. kthxbye. -- I don't feel like explaining anymore~ the names on the list are just people who I've noticed after day 1. Let's watch who the mafia hit because it's always in their best interest to snipe people who are hot on their tails. Also in their best interest to kill off the active members, more so than blues I'd say. For example, I'd rather target a townie Qatol than a Again, these are just suspicious people. Looking back at that voting list, I think I'd throw deconduo onto my list as well. Haven't looked at his posts thoroughly, but I feel like he just came in, voted, and left. I actually think Brocket might be a smurf and he's playing the newbie card to cover that up. Some of the questions are downright silly ("the mafia know who's on their team, right?") | ||
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On December 14 2010 10:05 Node wrote: That's an interesting claim. I'm inclined to believe it -- Hesmyrr has been fairly active, has been stating clear positions on who should be lynched, and in general seems like a town-aligned player willing to put himself out there to risk hits (veteran-style play). In fact, after re-reading his posts I'm not entirely sure where the suspicions of Hesmyrr being scum have come from, and I'll be taking a closer look at those who were putting a lot of pressure on him. I think he's telling the truth, but i dunno why Hesmyrr had to tell us his role. I mean all that does is give the mafia extra information - they know now that 1 vet is down a life and whoever replaces Hesmyrr can be hit and killed (barring medic of course). All he had to say was "I took the bomb hit," and it tells us what we need to know. I'm really puzzled by the roleclaim part of it. | ||
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On December 15 2010 04:01 dinmsab wrote: My vote is on Gabriel, for now. I'm not exactly convinced he's scummy but our discussions so far are pretty unconvincing and in the middle of this shitstorm is Gabriel. Imo, I think people should start to discuss on other things rather than random bs finger pointing. People could give advice to blues on what to do etc etc, that would be much more helpful than what we're currently doing. .. and no, i'm not a blue asking for advice. If mafia wants to kill me off then do so, I don't mind taking one for the team. I don't understand why you would vote for someone you don't think is Scummy. This is also the same thing you did day 1. "Someone should really make a list of inactives" "Someone should really start giving advice to blues" If you want to do it, why not you? Some blue advice: Medics: based on day 1, it looks like mafia could be targeting active townies who are contributing to discussion. Keep this in mind for your protections. Think like "if i was a mafia, who would i hit?" that is who you protect. Detectives: people I would check if i was a detective zeks Gabriel infundibulum amber[light] ghrur With 4 hours left in the day, I think it's more important to come up with a lynch candidate. People I think are actively lurking ghrur seraph Oceanic With that said let me read the thread because I haven't read all the pages yet. | ||
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Shockeyy: voted kenpachi, but so did half the town and i can't blame any of them for doing that. LSB and amber say he is obvious scum, but they haven't said why. His defense is "why am i picked out when there are so many others?" is shitty, so Shockeyy maybe you should step up so you don't have to be picked out. Personally, i think he might be a lurking blue that was trying to avoid the spotlight and now got dragged into it. The fact that he thought kenpachi's soft blue claim was fake adds some weight to this possibility, imo. Gabriel: The man at the center of attention. He is a polarizing figure so it's understandable that he attracts votes. But look what happened today: almost immediately, people like Brocket and zeks start calling for his head. I think this is because Gabriel is an easy target: he kinda fucked up Day 1, and it's easy to push a lynch on him because of that. Look at how his behavior changed from Day 1 to Day 2, he is now much less confrontational and less active. it's hard to say if this is because he's scum trying to cover his tracks, or town who realized he went too far and tried to ease up a little. I think he is an easy choice to pick at so there are going to be both townies and mafia pushing for his lynch. If Gabriel is red, then it's a good move by them to bus him since he is so suspicious to many people. If he's town, then they can get away with it by saying "well he was playing really bad." What seals it for me is this post by Brocket, specifically the bold part" On December 15 2010 05:57 Brocket wrote: Out from left field. I didn't see GGQ coming. I agree zeks would have been voted out day 1 because of kenpachi. Honestly if Gabriel wasn't here I'd vote him too. But I've already said kenpachi and jcarl lynched and dead as townies and gabriel's strong motive to FoS zeks to survive confound the zeks-is-scum argument. I want to see gabriel's identity, since he's failed to convince me from day 1 and the only recourse is by lynch. I am set on voting gabriel because I think he's mafia. I appreciate the people so far who voted with me for day 2 because that means they've read my posts and thought 'hey that Brocket dude is pretty handsome and makes a lot of sense'. If for some outlandish reason I am delirious and Gabe turns out to be townie, I invite suspicion upon myself and throw myself onto the sword. I will vote myself day 3 because I would know that nothing I said was productive at all and I would feel guilty that I got Gabe the 'helpful' townie lynched. But until that happens, it's vote 1 gabe. Vote him dead. I have seen several times a red post something like that part and then get away with it after a townie is lynched. I am 95% sure Gabriel is being set up right now. Zeks: I think GGQ made a huge catch here and I almost want to vote zeks because of that alone. Combined with zeks going after the easy target in Gabriel, I am more suspicious of him than I was Day 1, when zeks narrowly evaded the noose. | ||
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