BC and RoL: Salem Mafia

"The second mad hatter should claim to me. It's possible there are three mad hatters in this game, but it seems unlikely"

"A town circle is growing"

JimboSilvers

"Hey guys, sorry it seems I'm late to the party
DrH, is there anymore to that PM chain? Did your mysterious person ever respond?
Still though I dno't really feel like that's that safe to trust, especially since I'm confused as to how you could have a confirmed person so easily? It would really come down to all that you 'feel' about that person. Your reasoning kind of seems like you're WiFOMing yourself too..."

Discrediting PM circles/post analysis reasoning kinda early on. Townies will make posts like this as well, but it's important to note the goal of this post.

"Well I'm not saying that all analysis should be thought of as WiFOM. But right now with absolutely limited information it seems weird. Though I kind of do kind of agree it's risky for Mafia to try such things, so it does make your story more valid. Even so I think it's not a good idea for people to roleclaim (in general) yet since we have nothing to go off of :/

I agree with kitaman when he says we should be focusing on the lynch, since we have a day left now and not much to work off of. Te problem here is that there are many people who haven't posted yet, so one of them should be the target. For instance annul knows the game has started (he posted some spam post a few pages back?) but hasn't posted anything since. And off the top of my head looking at the player list I think these people haven't really posted:

Annul and Scaramanga both have posted Harry Potter-related stuff while not actually saying anything else?
Kenpachi just has one line and Amber doesn't really have any game-relevant posts either. Neither does youngminii.
Rocco, Georgeclooney, Pandain, node haven't posted at all.

I think I'm just gonna randomly pick a person to vote in a bit maybe... It's a lot harder to keep track of people online than it is in real life

There are more of course and I'm guilty of not posting much myself
But I've got some time since it's the weekend now and can post more, so let's get the show on the road "

Hey look, a big fucking post saing nothing at all. This is what people do, they come in say "hey everybody contribute, focus on the lynch, roleclaiming is bad, obvious point, obvious point, obvious point.

This isn't a game relevant post. He puts a minor attack on annul. mafia want to distance themselves from other mafia. I know for certain that one of annul's favorite scum strategies is faking disagreements and orchestrating fake accusations and disagreements among scum. I'm not convinced by this attack or future attacks.



Inconclusive. BB was the bandwagon the mafia chose however.

"Hmm looking back, I think Amber summarizes the game quite well in this post.

We've been discussing the DH issue for pages now, and haven't gotten anywhere. I don't think we'll reach any conclusion about this without some fresh information, so we might as well ignore it for now and see what happens later. As Amber says, people have been laying a lot of traps, all behind the scenes I suppose. And from what I've seen from DoctorHelvetica, these attempts are pretty bad. Unless the mafia are active behind the scenes, I don't think they're really posting in the thread as we're already not getting anywhere. The thing is, mafia are going to be active in PMs in a different way than town. They want to fish, and are not interested in analysis. I propose that we implement a policy to publicly announce people who are talking blue roles in PMs, and agree to only use PMs for analyzing/discussing who is suspicious. Other than that, talk about blue roles should be avoided. That way, it'll be easy to catch mafia trying to get blue information.

I really don't like the way DH is handling PMs right now. The fishing is getting us nowhere and is just confusing us. Its bad that people are lying in PMs, even if its purposeful and joking. This is getting us way off topic. "

"I don't think mafia are really posting in the thread" assuming he is scum he is trying to really press the idea of an inactive mafia to make people focus on inactives. Focusing on inactives is bad because the mafia will choose which inactives get focused down. You can't choose someones analysis of your posting.

"Talk about blue roles should be avoided" Hoo boy, I don't like the way he's phrasing this. "Publicly announce people who are talking blue roles", is a great way for mafia to push bandwagons onto innocent townies who are fishing for people to protect/investigate or simply trying to lead town like I am.

There isn't a lot positive about this post but there is a lot of negative.


I haven't played with you before, but it seems as if you did not "heavily defend attacks against" yourself in this game after Pandain posted one. Instead, you waited until Kenpachi brought it up again in order to defend? This sudden outburst makes me suspicious considering how it is contradictory.

This attack isn't very strong but I find it strange that JimboSilvers focuses so hard on annul in the thread yet never brings annul up when we're talking about mafia suspects in PM. He never mentioned annul once in PM and kept the focus on players like youngminii (who would be a clear blue suspect from his low-key play)

It doesn't make me think annul is scum. It makes me think jimbosilvers isn't actually committed to the idea that annul is scum. If JS was a townie interested in scumhunting and getting annul lynched, he would DEFINITELY mention it in our PMs which I will publish in a .txt file

"Hmm I was thinking Kenpachi was innocent at that point, but this makes me wonder again...I'll go through the vote list again to see what I can find."

Indecisiveness is normal for a townie and for a mafia. Inconclusive. mafia have a vested interest in qualification though.

Jimboslivers – BB
DrH -- BB
KtheZ--KP
Kenpachi -- BB
Pandain -- BB
Node -- KP
EsbenPM -- BB
Youngmini -- KP
Southrawrea -- BB
Deconduo -- KP(test)
Darth -- KP(test)

It is now 8 for KP, 7 for BB

Aeres -- switch from KP to BB
ghrur – BB


Ghrur flipping mafia definitely makes me think mafia were intervening here. If you look closely at the vote list, Ghrur already has a vote down for Pandain early in the game. He’s not under pressure for modkills. Yet he changes votes at the last minute. Why would he need to do this if he was mafia? I don’t think there’s no reason to do this if Kenpachi is town, because this puts more pressure on him for being the deciding and final vote for BrownBear. I don’t feel like Ghrur’s behavior fits if Kenpachi is town. Way too risky and for no reward.

Furthermore, if mafia were involved, youngminii and node are all on the right side of things. But…

On November 29 2010 11:10 Amber[LighT] wrote:
This I received from Ghrur... I don't know if he was trying to keep me away from others, but he did provide a "list" he was suspicious of:

Show nested quote +
Hey, nights about to end, and we're about to get some new information, but before that happens, can I ask you what you think about Town's reasoning on who's mafia? I understand that I draw suspicion because I basically cemented Brownbear's lynch, and if we look at him as a townie, it's like, yeah durrr people who voted BB. But the thing is, I don't think that's actually a totally fair assumption to make. I mean, did you see Protact's way of "fishing?" I think it's the scum's way of getting in touch with the chaos ensuant. Then, guess what, Protact just happened to vote FOR Kenpachi to maybe help save Brownbear?

Anyway, I think it makes sense that mafia DID get in contact with BB, and in that case, we shouldn't be focusing on who voted BB, but who voted Kenpachi. This includes:
Barunder
Protactinium
Node
KtheZ
Youngminii

I'd say Node and Youngminii are fairly quiet, which both makes me think they could be lurking mafia. However, I'd like to get your opinion on this because while it makes sense, the rest of the town seemed to have just glossed over it. =/


Thanks for not killing me though, Ghrur. ^____^


First off, I think its suspicious that Ghrur wants us to focus on the Kenpachi vote list. Ghrur suggests that we should assume mafia knew BB was mafia. But its clear BB was afk the whole game, so theres no reason for mafia to think BB is the CE. Ghrur’s statement makes no sense, so I think its safe to assume mafia did not know BB was traitor. Ghrur’s plea for us to look at Kenpachi’s votelist is nonsensical.

If Node and Youngminii are mafia, it doesn’t make sense for the vote to be that close, given that we know Ghrur is mafia. Ghrur’s deciding vote doesn’t make sense if mafia are on both sides of the vote and the vote is that close. I think this PM is just a red herring. Unless Kenpachi flips green, theres no indication why Node and Youngminii are mafia even if they’re lurking. A lot of people have been lurking this game, and one has already flipped blue.

So I doubt the mafia changed their bandwagon to "save" Kenpachi. This is an idea that would be supported by mafia in the case that Kenpachi is innocent which I feel is likely.

His conclusion is: there is no conclusion.

So another big post that looks like he's making a huge contribution but isn't saying anything.

"Mafia don't know BB was CE"

OH SHIT RLY TELL ME MORE

I'm trying to find the point here. See if you can.

"
Really I don't see how this helps us. DH is almost surely town because of the spotlight? Lets assume DH is mafia. If we lynch him, where does it lead us? Quite possibly nowhere, since at this point it seems like people actually are blindly claiming to him. If anyone wants to enlighten us as to why DH's being mafia will lead to a town victory, I'll listen. But as of now, I don't think there's any reason to believe DH's spotlighting makes him almost confirmed innocent. All I hear is bits an pieces of information that do nothing to help inform me of what to think because everything is going on behind the scenes. Furthremore, DH is making way too many unconditional and unsupported statements like "if the second medic claims to me, 2 mafia die". More unconditional orders that in no way holds DH accountable.

It's obvious that explanations that sort of thing is being withheld to protect the town. "Everything is going on behind the scenes." Then get involved?

If I'm mafia, the mafia have already won. If I'm mafia the mafia won on night 1. In the case that I'm godfather, it's really just a case of how long I'm willing to wait before I drop the bomb and kill all the blues.

I have received a message (from DH ) stating that DTA has been "scummy" in PMs, but this doesn't tell me anything. Then he asks for my thoughts. All I do know is that DTA answered my first PM coldly and didn't answer my second which I sent a few days ago. Does this make DTA scummy? I don't know. I don't have enough information to make a good decision. I'm sorry DH, but you can't ask for something in exchange for nothing. This is supposed to be town v. mafia, not you v. mafia. Asking for my opinion when all the information is hidden in PMs isn't exactly going to help me or you make informed decisions.

Ask for what you're thinking? Yes asking for your opinion is helpful, sharing your opinion is helpful. So far you've had zero opinions except:
people should be active
we don't know anything
drh is mafia maybe or maybe not
dta is scum maybe or maybe not

All I know is that the Kenpachi deal is awfully scummy. I can't see how mafia has a reason to jump ship to BB at the last minute if Kenpachi is clean. Unless theres more reason than some WIFOM "feeling" or equally unsupported targets, Kenpachi seems like the best target to me. Reasons like "oh mafia are letting this go too easily" are just WIFOM here. And from what I hear going on behind the scenes, it seems like quite a few people don't like the Kenpachi lynch at this point. As for Pandain's statement:

Supporting the kenpachi switch = mafia idea, a notion that at least 1 mafia is vocally supporting guaranteed.

Instead, there's quiet disagreements, but no outright attempt. This makes me think mafia is at least content to let him be lynched, as for some reason people have decided to lynch for really no reason.


I don't think mafia would want to make an outright attempt. Given the strong momentum against Kenpachi, I would think outright defense would be suicide. Subtle manipulation or sacrificing Kenpachi seems like better options for mafia.

Notice he repeats the original theme of "mafia are probably being quiet".

Also this statement:
by assuming ghrur's vote implies that he was saving him, you're implying he's mafia. So your evidence that kenpachi is "mafia" relies on the assumption that he IS mafia. Which is not very sound logic, btw .


doesn't match with this statement:
Also he voted for kenpachi which is something mafia would love to take the opportunity to bandwagon on.


Really both are the same type of argument. So I don't see why you endorse the second but not the first. "

Why did we let him get away with this shitty argument? they match up just fine. "Call kenpachi mafia because he IS mafia then vote for him" is something mafia WOULD love to do. He doesn't see this from a town perspective, his logic is wrong.

Sloppy defense.



Bad attack on Annul. None of the attacks on him were worth defending honestly.

Annul:
what better way to teach the game than to show them precisely what the "non-learning" games are all about?

but okay, sure. real analysis?

the only thing we need now is pandain to attempt to get people to claim to him in PMs and to start a circle and we have a standard TL mafia game. drh is already vying for day 1 leader so we are certainly off to the normal start.

thing of note is that the OP explicitly says not all roles may exist in the game. dont do analysis assuming all these roles are there, especially when trying to reverse engineer rolecounts through the guise of "well, THIS is balanced!" etc.

also if this is a "learning game" then i guess we should stick to the bread and butter playstyles and not go all out with crazy trickeries and gambits and stuff

pointless post of nothing, no one cares

ps i voted for darth because a random vote on drh is pretty frowntown given the daily circumstances

I agree :3

haunted and insane actually had a lot of content to discuss on day 1, surprisingly enough

because of elections and clues

wifom baby yeah <3

shut up


drh PMed me before day post even came up...

- Hide Spoiler -
From: DoctorHelvetica [ 9498 posts | Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: sup witch buddy
Date: 11/26/10 12:13
and by everybody i mean like 5 people becuase im too lazy to pm everyone

ghrur is dumb and thinks i am actually mafia who didn't get the pm with my teammates SIGH

-----------------------------------------
Original Message From annul:
what?

if youre claiming witch then i think you just broke the game, cuz i did not get sent a witch role =\

-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
lol so who else in our team?



so i mean drh seems to be messaging everybody with garbage like this; its not really surprising in a newbie game that maybe 1 person is going to bite. so of course i dont believe any PM claims.

i do think though that you can look at what is said in PM as evidence for day 1 lynches, but not in a "well he claimed so we believe him" way

Criticism on me, slight downtalk on the use of PMs

Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
maybe

i didnt like his response to my pm

Hide nested quote -
despite his defense of you, i like coagulation of this list. he has said a LOT of stuff and yet almost nothing at all at the same time.

-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
pandain, coagulation, georgecloony, kitaman27, youngminii, and node

you have to pick 1 to lynch, who would it be?

I remember this PM. Already annul is talking as though he doesn't trust me, yet he says "even though he defended you" as though he's "sure" I'm town. This is a common mafia slip because they know everyones alignment (except CE's)

RIGHT?

Wrong. Thinking about this more deeply it's hardly a mafia slip. Here is the more likely scenario. He's FoSing the guy who defended me the most, of course he'd point that out ot me since it would be in my direct interest to have someone survive that is on my side whether I'm mafia or not.

It's completely inconclusive. Later jimbosilvers comes out and says "oh thats scummy and suspicious" without explaining why. BS.

i heavily defend attacks against me no matter what, green blue or red. make a note of this.

i claimed this in haunted (red), followed it up in insane (blue), and continued the trend in sengoku (blue, though i guess that isn't "proven" yet). why stop now?

You didn't do that against the one pandain posted not too long ago before this one. And you didn't do it for anything else in this game annul.

i think he should random a green and give him the DT =\

DECISIVELY pro-town idea

dunno why'd a mafia suggest this unless to make themselves look more like a townie.

;D

... ;D

that said, the other, more probable alternative way this could fuck town over (other than him being godfather i mean) is that he is actually mafia and his "DT" is either another mafia player and/or doesnt exist. in a game like this with only 1 mafia team, sacrificing 1 member for completely fucking the town circle is a good play, especially if he can get a few other blues out of the deal.

this was bad in haunted because the red teams wanted to kill the other red team and NOT the town, but here with only 1 red team and their target the town, those blues will fall pretty quickly to a play like that.

That's actually a fair point. The more I read this the less convinced I am annul is mafia. Repetition can make you suspicious of somebody. Keep saying "hey annul is suspicious" and people will believe it eventually. Even I voted for him.

tbh this game is prematurely fucked for the town due to a DT suiciding so like i really have stopped paying much attention since then

if im still alive later on in the game im sure i will pay more attention to the stuff (and, specifically, look at individual posts of the ones still alive), but in the meanwhile ill give cursory skims and vote my gut and/or what people i think are town are voting. for some reason i just do not "feel" this game =(

id almost say "go and kill me" but i mean you really are better off just finding scum, not lynching a townie for not caring so much on day 2

not that i think i am in any danger whatsoever, mind you

Now this is suspicious. DT for a Mafia is a fair trade PLUS we got CE. Why would you be depressed about this? Night 1 was an overwhelming victory for town and town is still in the advantageous position. I have mafia by the balls (any action they make will be scrutinized heavily within both the inner and outer town circles which have multiple layers of confirmation (i feel smart for doing this just let me pat myself on the backand credit goes to the DT too) and mafia can now be pinpoined by their hit choices by so many people there is no way they can see it coming)

I can explain the layered town circle thing after the game ends, I think this is the best way to do town circles, I'll work on improving it for my next game as town.

He did martyr himself which is a shitty move but NOT a mafia one. No mafia says "lynch me im sick of this game", especially not a conscientous and careful mafia player such as annul.

btw, it goes against my mafia DNA to "give up" - i am only explaining why i am not so active in this one right now

when it gets deeper in the game if i am still here i will do my part, for sure.

Yeah, my point exactly.

jcarl the reason for that is because i feel it is usually better to say nothing if you have nothing to say. when i have stuff to say believe me i say it. this goes for whatever color i happen to be. notice in haunted i pretty much said nothing of significance for the first two days and then when i felt i had a chance to affect the game, i started making noise...

not claiming red by any stretch, but that is just how i play no matter what. and right now if i were to speak up on something or FOS someone, it wouldnt be strong. i dont feel it right now. when i do, i will, thats all im saying.

I think everyone has felt the same way. Why force a player to post when they have nothing to say?

My conclusion from this is that annul isn't mafia at all. That jimbosilvers is part of a mafia conspiracy to incriminate annul based on nothing but pure bullshit. Annul isn't playing like mafia he is playing like someone who has little to no town experience and doesn't know what to do.

Fact: people who are in a mafia team make LESS mistakes but more SIGNIFICANT mistakes
Townies: make many mistakes as they are unsure of their convictions and recieve information constantly from both sides of alignment, mafia have tunnel vision.

You have to exploit the fact that mafia have tunnel vision and have information town doesn't to find them. I think this is what I've done. Anyone else feel free to contribute their analysis of my analysis.

And don't go analysing everybody, that's a common mafia scam. Keep it focused. jimbosilvers and annul.

"I don't like how his play has been nothingness and critical of DH"

Really? How critical? Those 2 half assed warnings everyone made about roleclaiming and how I'm fishing? Yeah, very scathing.

Here are your PMs with me: http://www.mediafire.com/?mt2bit41xhb1pzm