Wow after reading the thread I am thoroughly convinced we may have a mafia/vampire kill on day 1- Veldril. Nice work spotting him Bill
+ Show Spoiler [veldril's posts] +On October 11 2010 14:46 Veldril wrote:
Reporting in.
Many victims seems to die by a weapon, maybe most are killed by mafia? Or maybe the vampire mimic the mafia style? However, I'm not sure is this important or not.
Also, nice find Glasse. That's really helpful. But maybe we can get more clue from the first night post that make the mafia/vamp more visible.
On October 11 2010 15:03 Veldril wrote:
Hey, he's killed by a dagger not sword, lol. And if you buy enough knives then you can literally pierce a person at every spot. On October 11 2010 15:08 Veldril wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2010 15:04 Nemesis wrote:On October 11 2010 14:50 Lucktar wrote:On October 11 2010 14:46 oddo123 wrote:
Veldril's public profile:
My body is made out of swords.
I have a blood of Fire and a heart of Glass.
I have fought through countless battles.
Never once retreating.
Never once being victorious.
The bearer lies here alone, forging iron on the hill of swords.
But my life needs no meaning.
My whole life was made out of unlimited swords. Regarding Incognito's death: As he turned the corner around a bookshelf a dagger pierced his heart. As he died he could feel cold steel pierce his body from every direction, ending his life cruelly. Body made of swords is the only thing I've found so far that seems to relate to this bit. This is a quote from archer from FSN. Archer had the power to make a reality marble which twists the surrounding to recreate his mind. In that reality marble, he can make any sword and as much swords as he desire hence it being called Unlimited Blade Works. It can be interpreted that "he could feel cold steel peirce his body from every direction" as having thousands of swords pierce his body. Actually this is from his younger self one. But in this game I would like to be the one in my profile picture more, lol. On October 11 2010 15:11 Veldril wrote:
Another thing is that are we too readily to blame Masq for the kill? The evidence is quite obvious but it could be too obvious sometimes. We need to be a little bit more careful about voting. On October 11 2010 15:33 Veldril wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2010 15:14 Nemesis wrote:On October 11 2010 15:11 Veldril wrote:
Another thing is that are we too readily to blame Masq for the kill? The evidence is quite obvious but it could be too obvious sometimes. We need to be a little bit more careful about voting. Unless you have someone else in mind, then please enlighten us. Right now, it is the best lead we got. I don't have one specific in my mind right now (that's why I don't vote yet). But I have some idea... Firstly, because the Mafia and Vampire knows who are on the same team with them, they would want to deflect the blame if a person in his team is suspected. A person who rashly accuses other person could be a Mafia or a Vampire, especially on Day 1. Note that this is not about presenting suspicious players' profiles. But it's more about looking at only one profile and making an accusation without analysis or with an over-analysis. Secondly, I believe that there's old-school player here so we might be able to check their previous post first before making an accusation. Analyzing the old posts in previous games might become useful if you have time to do it. On October 11 2010 15:40 Veldril wrote:Oh and by Mafia/Vampire deflecting blame in the first point of my previous post is that if they are lucky, they could kill other side too. For Mafia/Vampire, I think they don't care much about who dies in the first couple of days/nights as long as it's not on their side. Townie dies mean they have less choice to make in the next cycle and if they can force townie to vote to kill the other side, then that would make them even have more profit. Oh and I don't say that Masq is surely not a killer. I just think we need to look further for other clues too before accusing him solely. But he's one of the suspects though. (Maybe I need a ghost in the first night  ). On October 12 2010 00:43 Veldril wrote:Oh well, I think I deserve to be suspected for protecting Masq. But let's be clear, I'm suspecting Masq too but I don't want to draw conclusion based solely on the story that the GM wrote. To quote what Dr.H written in the introduction: Show nested quote +Clues:
During the day, people die. When people die, clues are left behind by the dastardly mafia (or monsters) that killed them. Clues may refer to a persons profile, name, and signature. They can be taken from anywhere and won't always be so obvious. Keep a sharp and open mind when looking for clues. Remember, clues often times hurt the town more than they help. Analyze but don't go overboard in trying to use clues to your advantage, you may just run yourself in circles. Mafia is a game of deception, guesswork, and manipulation before it is a game of clue analysis. Keep that in mind. That means the clue might hurt townie like us too. Now let me response to Bill Murray's post: Show nested quote +On October 11 2010 15:39 Bill Murray wrote:On October 11 2010 14:46 Veldril wrote:
Reporting in.
Many victims seems to die by a weapon, maybe most are killed by mafia? Or maybe the vampire mimic the mafia style? However, I'm not sure is this important or not.
Also, nice find Glasse. That's really helpful. But maybe we can get more clue from the first night post that make the mafia/vamp more visible.
This seems very forced. Maybe this, maybe that. I'm voting this guy. Fuck all the clue speculation, let's lynch Veldril over this post. I like your post here. Yes, I was absolutely did a bad post and deserve to be suspected. But after reading Ver's guide, do you think I would make a same mistake that Misder made in the past? I think not. Show nested quote +On October 11 2010 15:48 Bill Murray wrote:On October 11 2010 15:33 Veldril wrote:On October 11 2010 15:14 Nemesis wrote:On October 11 2010 15:11 Veldril wrote:
Another thing is that are we too readily to blame Masq for the kill? The evidence is quite obvious but it could be too obvious sometimes. We need to be a little bit more careful about voting. Unless you have someone else in mind, then please enlighten us. Right now, it is the best lead we got. I don't have one specific in my mind right now (that's why I don't vote yet). But I have some idea... Firstly, because the Mafia and Vampire knows who are on the same team with them, they would want to deflect the blame if a person in his team is suspected. A person who rashly accuses other person could be a Mafia or a Vampire, especially on Day 1. Note that this is not about presenting suspicious players' profiles. But it's more about looking at only one profile and making an accusation without analysis or with an over-analysis. Secondly, I believe that there's old-school player here so we might be able to check their previous post first before making an accusation. Analyzing the old posts in previous games might become useful if you have time to do it. LOL. YOU JUST ADMITTED YOU'D BUDDY WHEN MAFIA, AND YOU'VE BEEN DOING IT WITH MASQ. I DON'T MEAN TO BE FUNNY WITH HALLOWEEN-REFERENCES, BUT THAT WAS REALLY THE NAIL IN YOUR COFFIN MR VAMPIRE LOL Could you please clarify how I admitted that I'm a mafia/vampire? Because I defended Masq? I guess your logic is something like this. If someone is a mafia/vampire then that person would defend blame on his team mate. If a person defend other person then those people are teammate. Veldril defend Masq Therefore,Veldril and Masq are team mate. Therefore, Veldril and Masq are vampire. If your logic is like above then I think you have made both formal fallacy and informal fallacy. With an experienced player like you, it is unlikely that you would make such fallacies, unless you ignore them to make an accusation on me with some agendas. Of course, I could be wrong but in that case, could you please clarify why do you think I team up with Masq please? On October 12 2010 00:46 Veldril wrote:
Oh and Bill, I concluded that you are experienced player because you participated in many Mafia game before. You even hosted a game. I checked your post history. On October 12 2010 02:12 Veldril wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2010 02:02 Flicky wrote:
My general opinion on the Whole Masq thing is that he's not doing a great job of defending himself despite it only being day 1.
While it's possible it's "too obvious" to some, as soon as I realised it can't have been a Jack O'Lantern framing, the more it seems that's the only lead.
Seems likely to me and that a possible miss-lynch wouldn't be too much of an issue. After spending time reading rules, I do agree that miss-lynch on the first day is not a big issue. We have 61 players here, with 22 reds. That we have 39 greens/blues. Considering that mafias and vampires each can kill up to 3 people (or have to kill three people I'm not sure, might need clarification on this), we can say that on the first day plus first night, there will be up to 7 people dead. If all dead are hit at townie, then townie will have 32 player left. And worst case would be 7 of either vampire or mafia are killed (only single side), which I believe is very unlikely. On October 12 2010 03:14 Veldril wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2010 03:09 CubEdIn wrote:On October 12 2010 02:12 Veldril wrote:On October 12 2010 02:02 Flicky wrote:
My general opinion on the Whole Masq thing is that he's not doing a great job of defending himself despite it only being day 1.
While it's possible it's "too obvious" to some, as soon as I realised it can't have been a Jack O'Lantern framing, the more it seems that's the only lead.
Seems likely to me and that a possible miss-lynch wouldn't be too much of an issue. After spending time reading rules, I do agree that miss-lynch on the first day is not a big issue. We have 61 players here, with 22 reds. That we have 39 greens/blues. Considering that mafias and vampires each can kill up to 3 people (or have to kill three people I'm not sure, might need clarification on this), we can say that on the first day plus first night, there will be up to 7 people dead. If all dead are hit at townie, then townie will have 32 player left. And worst case would be 7 of either vampire or mafia are killed (only single side), which I believe is very unlikely. Not that it's very relevant, but you couldn't get 7 kills on vampire or mafia since they know who they are and would not use their 3 kills on their own team. So tops would be 4 kills on one side and 3 kills on the other, which wouldn't be TOO bad. It would make the game fairly interesting, since all sides gain from killing the other sides, so it would still be fairly even in terms of Mafia vs Vampires, but the Townies would have the advantage. As for masq, as I said in the beginning, it may not be the smartest thing to go on with such an obvious clue, but then again what other options do we have? Really, no other clues come close to this in my opinion. If we find someone who's more likely, then I'd gladly change my vote. Oh yeah, I miscounted and forgot about that. Thanks for a reminder and correction. On October 12 2010 03:50 Veldril wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2010 03:38 Bill Murray wrote:On October 12 2010 02:47 Veldril wrote:
Vote on Bill Murray. This is pretty damning. This is called an OMGUS. He is voting me because I have made a very good case on him, and he is pussysore about it. OMGUS = Oh My God You Suck. Veldril is standing in the grave he's digging, and it's a two plotter. One is for himself, one is for masq. Masq is mostly harmless, though, so lets get Veldril out of the way first. I'd also like to point out these PMs I received and corresponded on with aztorisk:
aztorisk wrote:
I agree with you however, we won't be able to gather enough votes to eliminate veldril. If you can gather 2 more votes for veldril, I'll switch, if not, vote for masq so your vote does not go to waste.
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Original Message From Bill Murray:
all i'm saying is veldril has been both more obvious and more active. it is dangerous to leave him alive, whereas masq is mostly harmless and has 1-2 posts with no real substance.
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
I know, I don't want to vote for masq either but It wouldn't be fair for masq if we are biased because he is a SC2 pro.
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Original Message From Bill Murray:
i am more sure of veldril, plus iirc masq is good at sc2 so i'm biased
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
Theres already 4 guys on masq and 1 guy on vendril. We have a better chance of removing masq. You said that you don't care which one goes home.
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Original Message From Bill Murray:
vote with me on veldril then
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
hey can you vote for masq because we won't be able to gather enough votes for vendril. If it is masq, then we'll vote for vendril because he tried to save masq. However, if you keep your vote for vendril and he will probably not get enough votes to get lynched.:
The point of me posting this is that either two things will happen now: A) Aztorisk switches to Veldril, fulfilling his promise to me through PM. B) Aztorisk lies about what he said he would do. If A, he is helping the town. If B, he is breaking LAL, which is Lynch All Liars, and we should lynch him for not cooperating. You can accuse me as much as you like. That doesn't refute my point I made earlier about you. Oh and nice about forcing Aztorisk to vote me by publishing the PM. On October 12 2010 04:00 Veldril wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2010 03:58 NB wrote:
Talking about M or V... they will want to get rid of the most "reasonable" person who has the most "power posts" in the first night... So The ghost should be protecting the most influential person we having here.
hmm, how do you type in color? only mods can do that? type (blue) message (/blue) but replacing () with [] Example: blue green red On October 12 2010 04:07 Veldril wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2010 04:00 Bill Murray wrote:On October 12 2010 00:43 Veldril wrote:Oh well, I think I deserve to be suspected for protecting Masq. But let's be clear, I'm suspecting Masq too but I don't want to draw conclusion based solely on the story that the GM wrote. To quote what Dr.H written in the introduction: Clues:
During the day, people die. When people die, clues are left behind by the dastardly mafia (or monsters) that killed them. Clues may refer to a persons profile, name, and signature. They can be taken from anywhere and won't always be so obvious. Keep a sharp and open mind when looking for clues. Remember, clues often times hurt the town more than they help. Analyze but don't go overboard in trying to use clues to your advantage, you may just run yourself in circles. Mafia is a game of deception, guesswork, and manipulation before it is a game of clue analysis. Keep that in mind. That means the clue might hurt townie like us too. Now let me response to Bill Murray's post: On October 11 2010 15:39 Bill Murray wrote:On October 11 2010 14:46 Veldril wrote:
Reporting in.
Many victims seems to die by a weapon, maybe most are killed by mafia? Or maybe the vampire mimic the mafia style? However, I'm not sure is this important or not.
Also, nice find Glasse. That's really helpful. But maybe we can get more clue from the first night post that make the mafia/vamp more visible.
This seems very forced. Maybe this, maybe that. I'm voting this guy. Fuck all the clue speculation, let's lynch Veldril over this post. I like your post here. Yes, I was absolutely did a bad post and deserve to be suspected. But after reading Ver's guide, do you think I would make a same mistake that Misder made in the past? I think not. On October 11 2010 15:48 Bill Murray wrote:On October 11 2010 15:33 Veldril wrote:On October 11 2010 15:14 Nemesis wrote:On October 11 2010 15:11 Veldril wrote:
Another thing is that are we too readily to blame Masq for the kill? The evidence is quite obvious but it could be too obvious sometimes. We need to be a little bit more careful about voting. Unless you have someone else in mind, then please enlighten us. Right now, it is the best lead we got. I don't have one specific in my mind right now (that's why I don't vote yet). But I have some idea... Firstly, because the Mafia and Vampire knows who are on the same team with them, they would want to deflect the blame if a person in his team is suspected. A person who rashly accuses other person could be a Mafia or a Vampire, especially on Day 1. Note that this is not about presenting suspicious players' profiles. But it's more about looking at only one profile and making an accusation without analysis or with an over-analysis. Secondly, I believe that there's old-school player here so we might be able to check their previous post first before making an accusation. Analyzing the old posts in previous games might become useful if you have time to do it. LOL. YOU JUST ADMITTED YOU'D BUDDY WHEN MAFIA, AND YOU'VE BEEN DOING IT WITH MASQ. I DON'T MEAN TO BE FUNNY WITH HALLOWEEN-REFERENCES, BUT THAT WAS REALLY THE NAIL IN YOUR COFFIN MR VAMPIRE LOL Could you please clarify how I admitted that I'm a mafia/vampire? Because I defended Masq? I guess your logic is something like this. If someone is a mafia/vampire then that person would defend blame on his team mate. If a person defend other person then those people are teammate. Veldril defend Masq Therefore,Veldril and Masq are team mate. Therefore, Veldril and Masq are vampire. If your logic is like above then I think you have made both formal fallacy and informal fallacy. With an experienced player like you, it is unlikely that you would make such fallacies, unless you ignore them to make an accusation on me with some agendas. Of course, I could be wrong but in that case, could you please clarify why do you think I team up with Masq please? my logic is more like this: you said "as mafia, i would defend someone" you said so AFTER defending someone therefore, it is possible you are mafia with them the fact you are squirming and attacking my logic, while calling me an experienced player claiming I have a hidden agenda (which I don't and it's a fucking straight out lie), is making me really really want you to be lynched. You are pretty good for a newbie. Your logic is better than mine. My logic sucks. I don't give a fuck if my logic sucks, though, you have made many fucking mistakes. You are mafia. You are either mafia or a vampire, and I'm going to get you lynched. Sorry. Hmmm, fair enough. You have your points spoken and that's fine for me. Well, maybe I jumped my conclusion that "experienced player = player familiar with logic" so if that's not true then my argument would be unsound. But since we really don't know is it true or not, we could just left it for others to decide. On October 12 2010 04:21 Veldril wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2010 04:16 orgolove wrote:https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ap0Ejzlf165MdENWM3p1cHNOcDlnT0o4bjNUUFdVMlE&hl=en&output=htmlSo far we have a few people who have had several tells. These may not be conclusive, but just putting it out there: jodogohoo-"what is mafia" pretended to be noob, changed vote multiple times 1st day Masq-apart from profile matching the clue, immediately agreed with Veldril when defended aztrorisk-strongly accused shmotz, switched to masq when others started, defended glasse when his hammer profile pic was mentioned Bill Murray-happy to kill coagulation/masq, posted PMs with aztorisk (!!!) - untrustworthy? And we can see that most of the votes are against these few. Now, I don't understand the following votes: ShmotZ - 1 - KtheZ - (L-30) seRapH - 2 - NB, coagulation - (L-29) coagulation - 3 - seRapH, deconduo, jcarlsoniv - (L-28) These votes can't be explained by the newbie logic of "he voted for me, so I'm voting for him" What's interesting to note is, seraph accused coagulation, then NB and coagulation voted Seraph back. Also, I haven't seen jcarlsoniv or deconduo post in this thread, only in the voting thread. These might be from the same faction- I dunno... Deconduo has posted once. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=159453¤tpage=17#327 On October 12 2010 04:30 Veldril wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2010 04:28 deconduo wrote:On October 12 2010 04:21 Veldril wrote:On October 12 2010 04:16 orgolove wrote:https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ap0Ejzlf165MdENWM3p1cHNOcDlnT0o4bjNUUFdVMlE&hl=en&output=htmlSo far we have a few people who have had several tells. These may not be conclusive, but just putting it out there: jodogohoo-"what is mafia" pretended to be noob, changed vote multiple times 1st day Masq-apart from profile matching the clue, immediately agreed with Veldril when defended aztrorisk-strongly accused shmotz, switched to masq when others started, defended glasse when his hammer profile pic was mentioned Bill Murray-happy to kill coagulation/masq, posted PMs with aztorisk (!!!) - untrustworthy? And we can see that most of the votes are against these few. Now, I don't understand the following votes: ShmotZ - 1 - KtheZ - (L-30) seRapH - 2 - NB, coagulation - (L-29) coagulation - 3 - seRapH, deconduo, jcarlsoniv - (L-28) These votes can't be explained by the newbie logic of "he voted for me, so I'm voting for him" What's interesting to note is, seraph accused coagulation, then NB and coagulation voted Seraph back. Also, I haven't seen jcarlsoniv or deconduo post in this thread, only in the voting thread. These might be from the same faction- I dunno... Deconduo has posted once. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=159453¤tpage=17#327 Twice actually, and I will be picking up a bit if I can. Ah I see, seems to miss your post. Anyway, off to sleep now since it's night here in Asia. On October 12 2010 19:02 Veldril wrote:
It seems most people are out for my blood now.
I feel like now when I try to defend or propose something up, most people will come up with even more excuses to vote me. It seems I really made a grudge with Bill Murray, since he's the most vocal to get me killed. I don't really understand why you would want me to get lynched so badly. I would shift a vote off you if you have explain the reason why do you think "defending others" would mean "Red defends Red".
Also, I feel that either me or Masq get lynched, it would not be a good situation for Townie or me at all. If Masq get lynched and turn out to be red, people would still suspect me and that could hurt townie since they would spend their focus on me being red and I would still get fried. If Masq turn out to be green, I don't think some people will let me go free without discrediting me, therefore I could not make impact in the future day/night.
However, if I get lynched today, it would be a game over. It may seems cowardice but I will have to vote for Masq to save myself. I just wish that Masq indeed turns out to be green.
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On October 29 2010 10:44 annul wrote:and this conversation with aztrorisk is what started it all. first message is when he came out to me, and the last three messages (the ones at the top) crystallized my game strategy. funnily enough, not so sure i would have pulled the trigger so early if not to save quickstriker. + Show Spoiler +
From: aztrorisk [ 467 posts | Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: code
Date: 10/19/10 10:43
Ok, heres the deal
You can go around and ask for someone to claim blue. If you do get someone to claim blue, then I'll check him.
However, I'm just warning you that V/M will assume that your DT and you are very likely to die. That is my only concern.
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Original Message From annul:
i want to get blues confirmed, i think it is more powerful to form a confirmed circle than to go after suspicious people. this is why i want some blue to come out to me (without saying what they are) for you to check and bring them in
do you think it is too early to do this?
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
Oh,I guess you did.
BTW, I'ma check quicksilver. He looks very suspicious.
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Original Message From annul:
yes i did
i told you orgolove and glurio, scroll down its there
i know i can move glurio's, but what i am saying is if he dies by the town, then i have only 1 bomb at orgolove. if i move glurio's bomb onto someone, and then both myself and orgolove die at night, then i only bomb one target. that's why i try to not lynch who i got my bombs on, cuz the same logic will apply no matter what.
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
bTW, you never told me who do you have the bombs on.
If you have two bombs planted, you can move it tonight.
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Original Message From annul:
i think he is too, thats why i got my bomb on him
i am trying not to vote my bomb targets, just in case. i dont want him to be lynched in the day and then, say, i get hit at night and now i possibly can only bomb 1 person (if orgo is hit at night too)
i would much rather it have been artanis or heavon that the wagon rolled on. i think glurio dies today anyway though.
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
hey, can you change ur vote to Gurio? I think he has a good chance to be mafia because BM was a big advocate for vendril.
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Original Message From annul:
obviously im not going to tell them you are a DT
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
My code was wrong (however, it might still be right) but the reactions to the code is what leads me to consider these candidates. NO revealing my identity at all cost because it would mean that I would immediately die.
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Original Message From annul:
orgolove and glurio
as a side note, i am trying to not give away your secret in my defense from ghrur, but not so sure how to do this without just continuing to say "my code was right, stfu" and without discrediting you -- what should i do?
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
Hey, who are your 2 bombs currently located at?
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Original Message From annul:
alright
im going to sleep, when i wake up i will try to think of more that can be done
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
Basically, it was me being stupid and paranoid that I would die and I claimed JoL in order to reduce the chances of me getting targeted. I thought it ended up working. I still want to claim to be JoL.
I don't know if I believe glasse anymore because of what happened with glasse. If I stay alive, we'll have another member of target for our time circle every day.
Honestly, your the only person I completely trust.
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Original Message From annul:
can you explain to me the thought process behind the day 1 JOL claim? what info did you try to get from that? what info DID you get from it?
if you believe glasse is boogeyman (which i do), i wonder if we can get a town circle going. i dont want to pull a pandain though and draw attention to myself. JOL is a late game role more than anything.
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
yup. that is why I revealed myself to you. now we can work together. Man, everything I worked up to now has been sabotaged by the invisible man. Damn it!
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Original Message From annul:
finally, something concrete from you. =]
okay, we need to break this game open somehow. pandain was your night 1 (framed) and i was your night 2, right?
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Original Message From aztrorisk:
Your a JoL.
I'm a DT
don't tell anyone
Lol. that was smart
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EPT![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/0e/Insomnium_-_Since_the_Day_it_All_Came_Down.jpg)
Heavonearth was Mafia instead of Vampire. 
