EPTTL Mafia XXII
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On April 18 2010 11:51 Bill Murray wrote: and what do you all about us doing a collective roleclaim? it puts a lot of pressure on reds like in that game where all of the reds claimed green roles when there werent any. I think I'm losing confidence in your plan by the minute. | ||
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On April 20 2010 15:37 Bill Murray wrote: I feel like I am at a pretty high risk of dying. from lynch | ||
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
But here's why the "evenly distributed" strategy works best in this case. Let's say that RebirthOfLeGenD, IntoTheWow, and I are discovered to be mafia. Suddenly there are three names on the top list. Pattern recognition is a skill that every human possesses, so the rest of the people on the "voted for Caller" list will immediately be under suspicion, even though the rest of the mafia members are in the "didn't vote for Caller" list. Also, it's clear that Ace is a detective. | ||
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On April 24 2010 18:07 Incognito wrote: motbob: motbob is inconsistent. Besides his early useless posts, he posts this: But only two posts later, he says: So the town is on the right track, but then only two posts later we're doomed? What happened? I'm sure the night kills didn't change your mind that much...your posting is inconsistent, and you just seem to be stirring the pot and trying to avoid discussion when possible. Then, you pop up and say we're doomed, likely because you want to out all the power roles. Given that I still think there's at least 2 medics in there, that would help you a lot if you were mafia, right? Trying to push the boat in the direction you want? Seems like it to me. Your analysis on me is poor. In between those two posts, the mafia that Ace fingered turned out to be a miller. Three townies were modkilled before night one. Five non-mafia players were removed from the game during night one: two townies and three assassins. RoL's role check alone shows us that assassins can be helpful to town. Nine non-mafia players were eliminated, and zero mafia members were eliminated. After these events I make my second post. It is a massive misrepresentation of my posting to note that my posts came one after the other, but fail to mention that they were three days apart. | ||
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On April 27 2010 14:20 d3_crescentia wrote: Now, let's look at motbob below: Analysis of motbob: - Rejects the BM plan - Makes a useless post about how he doesn't think about saying anything - Contributes a post about how mafia votes are likely divided - Is a negative Nancy for saying we can't win at this point - Corrects/defends himself in regard to posting times Notes on the voting record: Day 1 vote on Bill Murray, Day 2 vote on Caller, Day 3 on both Inf and BC. Seems fairly in-line with the majority vote except for Day 1, but since he hasn't really been posting enough to explain himself it's more than a little suspicious. His position on the vote list is around the middle for Days 2 and 3, but he doesn't vote for double-lynch on Day 2. Given our discussion of shooting BC occurred during the night it's more than a little troubling to me that he'd miss out on the vote. Then there's this comment: Which suggests to me that he could have had an inkling that Caller actually *was* green (technically black). Of note here is that Scaramanga agrees with him, and Scara's also been MIA and on a number of suspicion lists. But, can we actually positively conclude anything from this information? Maybe not; he might just have an actual reason for being less active. The matter of the fact is that we're significantly short on information as it stands, so it does us better to actually accuse based on what hunches we have and analyze our responses... and it just so happens that I've got a hunch. The FoS is poking you, motbob. Your response better be damn convincing of your innocence. I am not entirely sure what I can say to be "damn convincing" of my innocence. Every day, we've had a DT come up with a mafia target. Votes have basically cast themselves. There has honestly been zero reason to be really active so far, and today is the first day where I see myself doing a lot of analysis and getting into a lot of arguments. It is absolutely true that the only analysis I've done was disparaging Bill Murray's plan (since no one else seemed to be able to articulate why it was so bad of a plan.) Anyway, the fact that I've been voting with the majority should not incriminate me or clear me of suspicion. I think that should be obvious. Why on earth should I need to explain my votes? In fact I DID explain my vote on Day 1 and you're using it as evidence against me lololol. Analysis later. | ||
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On April 22 2010 04:35 madnessman wrote: Idk about you guys, but this sounds like terrible wifom to me. It seems pretty clear to me from Ace's tone that he: A) Can't give a shit about this game anymore and wants to get killed off, and thus is faking DT hoping to get hit B) Is a vet and thus claims DT so he'll soak a hit "for the sake of the greater good" C) Is a legit DT D) Is mafia playing a risky strategy Of course there may be other scenarios where Ace is playing major mental mind trix on everyone, but these 4 seem most likely to me. Therefore, asking for your own role check does not seem so risky if you're mafia, considering the sense of impatience and disdain in Ace's posts, the chances that he is bluffing may be pretty high. The problem though is that if caller flips town-aligned, it doesn't give us a lot of info about Ace. Caller = red: yay we'll know Ace is legit Caller = green/blue: could be scenario A where Ace is goofing around and hoping to take Caller down with him, or could be scenario D... Like a lot of people, including me, madnessman brings up the possibility that Ace is lying and is actually mafia. I don't think this really casts much suspicion on him... but then again, I'm biased. On April 24 2010 16:45 madnessman wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2010 14:41 Ace wrote: Remaining players list
With 7 Mafia currently after these 2 are scraped off that leaves 5 scum in a 19 player game. That's pretty decent odds if we had enough useful players. Alas, we must do things the hard way. Jpak's voting list: The first 12 (remember jpak needed 20 to die) BloodyC0bbler Fishball Radfield KF91 CynanMachae d3_crescentia Osmoses [NyC]HoBbes Abenson RebirthOfLeGend meeple Zona The bandwagon was started by a scummy player with ridiculous logic all game. Next set of votes: Incognito Scamp madnessman Foolishness iNfuNdiBuLuM DarthThienAn TheLardyGooser Jugan So let's just step back and think for a second. We've got scum starting the wagon assuming RoL was right about his RC (and I think he is because BCs reaction was so scummy) and 2 confirmed Mafia at the end. Ok now lets combine both lists in order taking out dead players and replacing in subs. Keep in mind that the real meat of this is the votes coming after after RoL because the 3 votes before him were all non-scum. Don't worry about the guys in the beginning just yet. I'll take of that because I know most people are lazy so I'll collectively give everyone else one simple task. New list: BloodyC0bbler Fishball KF91 CynanMachae d3_crescentia Osmoses meeple BrownBear Incognito Scamp madnessman iNfuNdiBuLuM Looks so much simpler now huh? 10 players! With 2 about to be gone! So now we're down to these 8: Fishball KF91 CynanMachae d3_crescentia Osmoses meeple BrownBear Incognito Scamp madnessman ^_^. Sooo how does this all work? Simple. I want the town to go back and check out the posts->votes of Incognito, Scamp and madnessman right before the train on jpak was started by BC. Check all their posts around that time and then slightly right after the lynch. If you find anything scummy point it out. This is not meant to accuse them of being scum right off the bat. This is meant for tomorrow when the role claims come out  . As for the people in the beginning of that list I'll take care of it for now. If I don't die tonight I'll illustrate how we break that list apart even easier. I did take into account that in all the mafia games I've participated in, day one lynches have been unsuccessful at pinpointing mafia. But at the time I thought there seemed to be more to gain than to lose by not lynching him. Of course with all the modkills that are putting strain on the whole "numbers game," it's meh now. I'll be accessing le zbot archives and posting more in a bit. Posting this because it's one of the few posts he made that weren't one liner jokes or discussions on technical matters. On April 24 2010 17:00 madnessman wrote: I didn't even think of making a joke until you went along and suggested it. Now..must..resist... In response to your observation, I don't know whether being active on other areas in TL and not posting in mafia thread is indicative of being scum... I would think that if you were mafia, you would be paranoid of people noticing you lurking in the mafia thread when you're obviously around, and would therefore be careful not to post in other areas if you're not posting in the mafia thread. Just my opinion though.. I could be wrong; they could be mafia and just not be as paranoid a player as I was when I was mafia, or then again just town-aligned players feeling lazy and having nothing to contribute... Basically I'm saying that while it shouldn't clear them from suspicion, I don't think such actions should be the CAUSE of suspicion/basis of FoS. Posting this because he's supporting me  Also it's his last post in some time, made three days ago, on the 24th.I cannot draw a conclusion on madnessman. He's showing neither scum tells nor town tells. Well, that may not be entirely true. In my experience, someone who's only posts with content are on technical matters or general mafia game theory are usually scum. People like that are "contributing without contributing," pointing out indisputable facts instead of speculating about whether or not specific people are scum or not. If you look over madnessman's post history, not once, I think, has he said "this person looks town to me" or "this person looks mafia." The reason I don't think this is necessarily a scum tell this game is because I've been doing the same thing! I've already explained why, too: this game has had a lynch target confirmed by either a DT or an assassin on most days. No need to make leaps of logic if town is getting sure lynches. Anyway, I definitely would not recommend madnessman for a lynch today. Surely there are better targets. | ||
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
Pulling the rookie card does not mean you are scum! I pulled the rookie card in my first couple games, when I was town. Please do not rush to lynch a townie simply because he is an unproductive townie. | ||
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On April 29 2010 09:44 Bill Murray wrote: he is obviously scum, and has been detracting from and derailing the thread from the get go with his shitty one liners. not only that, but he is trying to wagon someone for being inactive/noob in a lylo situation. that's OBVIOUS scum. This is a dangerous generalization to make. You have to be able to distinguish between noob town and mafia. What you described could be either. That said, he's a waaaay better target than Scara. Here's hoping he flips red. | ||
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
GG | ||
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