EPTTL Mafia XXII
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I find the Caller bandwagon to be slightly weird. It seems that people have jumped on the caller bandwagon largely due to this post by Ace: + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2010 12:37 Ace wrote: STOP THE GAME! Rolecheck on Caller came back : Caller is Mafia Lets get this shit. ...although Caller really hasn't helped his cause much by being BM about it. However, the only real proof we have that Ace is his word, plus an (easily fakeable) pm from flamewheel. Of course, he still could easily be a detective, as he said, but then that begs the question: why did the Mafia not kill him on night 1, and go for Radfield instead? I have not seen any evidence that the Mafia knew somehow that Radfield was a detective - except, of course, for another post by Ace: + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2010 06:42 Ace wrote: wait my bad. This guy is. Don't let him die - only hope for the town to win. ...which doesnt exactly implicate Radfield as a detective, but... it's just very very strange to me. It's not really enough for me to stick my neck out for Caller, as he's pretty obviously today's pincushion, and honestly, people have been lynched in Mafia games for less that this. However, it does make me suspicious, so here's my recommendation: Lynch Caller today, and see what his role was. If he does turn out to be scum, then I hereby retract all the nasty horrible things I said about Ace in this post, with my most humble apologies. However, if he's innocent... I for one will be targeting the guy who seems most responsible for his death. Now to prepare to have my argument cut to shreds  | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Although you're dead anyway, so I guess you don't care at this point. However, I still find it hard to believe that if Ace were actually detective, he would flaunt himself so openly in the thread, and that if he were actually DT, he would still be alive after night 1. I would think DT would be a rather high-priority role for the Mafia. That said, since it's pretty clear you are dead, it all depends on what your role was. If you're mafia, I'll accept Ace as DT. If not... | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I hereby retract my statement that he's suspicious/call to lynch him tomorrow. Sorry bro. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On April 22 2010 04:17 Ace wrote: I don't know how you could read this thread and ask me why I did that. Somehow I'm still alive. Don't blame me. You are correct, I suppose that you're alive-ness is simply on the mafia's decision to not kill you for whatever reason. Unless... it's ALL part of your totally intricate secret master plan :D | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
SO. I'm still not ENTIRELY convinced Ace is a Legit DT, for the still-inexplicable reason that he's alive (again, he could die tonight, so that's a possibility). Unless the Mafia is not killing him on purpose because that makes him look suspicious as hell... God, I don't know, but being "right" on a prediction once (yeah, he was correct, Miller shows up to nightchecks as Mafia) isn't enough for me. Still, I'm not gonna lynch him tomorrow, partially because I can't even convince myself that Ace is suspicious, but also because the more I read tree.hugger's post, the more it makes sense to me. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On April 22 2010 10:36 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: And by the way... exactly HALF of the people on the list I just posted voted to lynch jpak, here they are... BloodyC0bbler Fishball KF91 Abenson RebirthOfLeGend BrownBear (aka zona before) madnessman Hey. Not entirely fair implicating me for something the dude before me did. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On April 22 2010 15:32 meeple wrote: Well... you have the same role, so his acting can still give hints into what you are. However it kinda sucks for you because you can't really defend his actions. Eh, so it goes. I'm not really going to try to pretend I knew what was going on in his head. So, having looked at the required reading, here goes in terms of analysis: BloodyC0bbler: Started the game offering a lot of advice to new players, and specifically telling medics NOT to protect him, Ace, or Caller. With Caller out, that leaves him and Ace that the medics are NOT supposed to protect. That, to me, is kinda suspect. If you analyze it on the surface, it's a totally selfless move that makes him look townie, but honestly, why even bother making that move? He could have just as easily said nothing about whether the medic protects him or not, and it wouldn't have been suspicious at all. Plus, now, with it having been pretty much established that Ace is DT, having medics not protect him is just silly. On the other side, to be fair, BC probaby had no clue Ace was a DT when he made that post, so it's not entirely damning evidence, it's just minorly suspect. Gives some more early game advice, drops into some oneliners, then starts a bandwagon on RoL, then jumps off immediately once it gets rolling. What? He claims its under the pretense that he's starting wagons on inactive players. As this is my first time playing, I don't know if this is actually a legitimate strategy, but, hey, y'know, whatever. He then follows up with some decent analysis of random people's posts, which all seem to end in confirming them red. Kind of odd that he yells at meeple for doing nothing but confirming people red, while at the same time pointing the FoS at many people himself - the only difference is he mixes it up by also adding advice to newbies/random oneline comments. So... I feel something's off here. I am pretty sure he's not Townie, based off the fact that he seems to have a clear agenda here, and he's picking people who I don't think are mafia, and accusing them to be red. But at the same time, he's also (so far) working by himself, and doesn't seem to be anti-town so much as he is anti-specific people. Thus, I'm going to call Assassin. RebirthOfLegenD Not nearly as active as BC, but that could mean anything, he claims he's been very busy. Most of his posts are 1-3 liners, with the exception of some longer defense posts. What I don't like is that ok, he has accused BC of mafia, but he presents NO evidence besides "rolecheck confirmed LOL". I fail to see anywhere where he claims to be a DT, or have any rolechecks whatsoever, so if someone could point me to that that would be greatly appreciated. Beyond that, he doesn't seem to be taking the game very seriously, his posts have little to no analysis, and he appears to have given up on the town. All this points to SCUM Bill Murray I will analyze Bill Murray in a little bit, as I have class now and there's a lot of reading to go through. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I don't really buy your rolechecking, as Ace is pretty much confirmed DT at this point, while another DT (Radfield) is dead. There are 30 town-aligned people, and 6 special roles, plus Assassins. Assuming we have 2 of each role (which is a fairly safe assumption, given we've seen 2 millers dead already), and, say, 3 or 4 assassins, that means that more than half the town is already a special role. Of course, different roles could have different numbers of players, but I highly doubt there would be more than 2 detectives, as if they don't die early, they could rolecheck enough people to win very very quickly. Thus, I'm following through with the assumption that you aren't DT, in which case there are a couple options: You are an Assassin, and you used your rolecheck on BC and found out he was Mafia You are lying, and therefore probably scum. I'm more inclined to believe option 2, because option 1 is a bad move for your own survival. Any other Assassins in the game (again, I think placing the number around 3 or 4 is accurate) would probably think you suspicious for saying "I rolechecked BC" for the same reasons I posted above - I really find it unlikely that there are more than 2 DTs in the game, and we know one is dead, and the other is most likely Ace. Even if there are 3, to say you have rolechecks makes it about an 80% chance that you're an assassin (3-4 assassins vs. 1 DT), so I'm sure at least one other Assassin would take that chance and bump you off. Just not smart play. Because I trust that you know how to play and are intelligent, you must be lying. Thus, you are scum. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Tonight might be a good time for vigilantes to perform some hits... or for Assassins to spend one of their nghtkills on people they know to be Mafia. Why? Because if you don't, the game might very well end before you have a chance to fulfill your objectives. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
This means that worst-case scenario after tonight, we could end up 15 town vs 7 mafia - meaning we essentially need the double lynch, and we need both lynchings to hit mafia, to survive. gogogo medics vigis and assassins. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On April 24 2010 03:32 Korynne wrote: Haha, nice analysis of JadeFist AcrossFiveJulys. xP I maintain that medics should only protect RoL/Ace, three people would be spreading it out too thin, especially if we only have 1 medic left. If we have 3 medics left that's a pretty good solid protection on Ace, if the mafia really wants to kill Ace they would have to put 4 hits on him, unlikely to happen given how many townies they could kill instead. I would go with protect Ace 2/3 and protect RoL 1/3 for all medics. The problem I have with saying that out loud is now the mafia might very well choose not to hit either RoL or Ace, but go for 4 other random people, which means we get shafted. It's better to trust the medics to be intelligent with who to protect, and to keep quiet about who they're protecting. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Unless we get very very lucky, we are not gonna win this. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
And I apologize for the lack of content recently, I have been very busy (as light designer/lightboard op for a show, these last couple of days have been hell). I will start adding some more content, because I am most definitely not scum, and to be taken as such would be kind of a failure on my part, and would really screw the town over. Also, btw, I no longer doubt Ace, he's definitely a detective. I said as much already too. So let's start analyzing people on Ace's list, because I like it (apart from myself being on there, obviously  ) But first, I still owe an analysis on Bill Murray, so I'm going to post it now, sorry for it being so late.So to begin, Bill Murray Early on, not really that much content. Accuses Zona (me) and RaGe of scumminess, Zona for relative inactivite, RaGe for saying "hey let's just bandwagon RoL day 1". Then BC, who is probably scum, jumps on saying "motbob is also red" and BM thinks he's blue. (correctly) labels tree.hugger as assassin (damn man you are good with the analysis). Claims himself to be green, laments he's never red. calls for a lynch on KF91 (who coincidentally, just wrote a list above fingering Bill Murray as potential mafia, as well as me again) Continued random posts with minor analysis until we get to the first "Ace is a detective" argument. Here it gets interesting. He provides analysis with all the options, then agrees, "you know what, ace is probably a detective." Turns out, he's right. Woo Bill Murray. After that, he's been very very quiet. A few one liners here and there. So I am inclined to think he's town. He's very very good with his analysis (2 correct so far, whereas I have 0), and he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game. Thus, I'm gonna say town. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On April 25 2010 04:26 Ace wrote: hmmmm so role check on Brown Bear might be a good idea? I've already noted the bunch of suspicions on meeple posts throughout the game but none of them even seem convincing. If meeple is scum and it's a gut read thats better than saying "Meeple is scummy" and leaving it at that. Please don't rolecheck me unless there starts to be a wave of "BrownBear is scum" sentiment, but if there is, please please do. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On April 25 2010 07:03 Fishball wrote: Deep down inside, the voice says Ace is Mafia and the cake is a lie. Ace has been right with his rolechecks twice now (at least from his perspective), and there are no Assassins left in the game, with RoL gone. Thus, I think it's pretty obvious that he's a detective, and pretty obvious that this is a scummy post. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
ONWARD WITH ANALYSIS! Fishball Well... there's actually not too much to analyze here, like KF said already, most of his posts have little to no substance. In fact, all of his posts have little to no substance. But, there's information to glean from that. He's pretty inactive in terms of actually helping the town - the most constructive post he posted was "I'm bored, analyze me" after which people actually started noticing how little he's contributed. After which, he had the option to be more active and assuage some of the suspicions cast on him, which he has so far failed to do. This is all pretty scummy, but he still could be a bored townie... until he started again questioning Ace's Detective-ness. Ace is, at this point, pretty much 100% Detective, two correct predictions in a row (we have to count the millers as correct because they do flip Mafia to rolechecks) is nearly impossible to pull off. Thus, I say, you good sir are SCUM, and i say we lynch him at sunrise, unless Ace flips someone else as Mafia for sure. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On April 26 2010 09:53 BrownBear wrote: I think it's safe to assume, for now at least, that all the millers are dead, because more than two would be really unfair to us (especially if we're out of Vigis). There's at least one Veteran left in the game though, because none have died yet, and the role wouldn't be up there if there were none. Hopefully the mafia decide to target him tonight, cause that would put us up 12-6 instead of 11-6, which isn't that much better, but at this point I'll take any advantage we can get ONWARD WITH ANALYSIS! Fishball Well... there's actually not too much to analyze here, like KF said already, most of his posts have little to no substance. In fact, all of his posts have little to no substance. But, there's information to glean from that. He's pretty inactive in terms of actually helping the town - the most constructive post he posted was "I'm bored, analyze me" after which people actually started noticing how little he's contributed. After which, he had the option to be more active and assuage some of the suspicions cast on him, which he has so far failed to do. This is all pretty scummy, but he still could be a bored townie... until he started again questioning Ace's Detective-ness. Ace is, at this point, pretty much 100% Detective, two correct predictions in a row (we have to count the millers as correct because they do flip Mafia to rolechecks) is nearly impossible to pull off. Thus, I say, you good sir are SCUM, and i say we lynch him at sunrise, unless Ace flips someone else as Mafia for sure. As an addendum, I would also say that even if my analysis is false and he isn't scum, he's done nothing helpful for the town at all (not even analysis), so... the only downside is one less Townie, I suppose. And that's a worst-case scenario. I'm still sticking to my guns that he's Mafia. | ||
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