PvP is one of the most volatile matchups in Starcraft despite this fact not being spoken about much around the forums. It is a matchup where luck plays a large factor - for instance if one player decides to go for a Dark Templar opening the game is usually won or lost depending on how effective those Dark Templar are. Despite things being largely determined by build order, PvP miraculously manages to reach an equilibrium point where luck is no longer a factor and only skill can lead you to victory. Thus in considering this series there are two things to consider - how are they going to open, and who has the advantage if the game goes long?

Let's start off with the skill analysis. It was apparent from White-Ra's series with TT1 that his macro is perhaps not as solid as we would like to think. The one game which reached that equilibrium position I was talking about earlier was Game 5 where TT1 held a macro advantage, but White-Ra's superior tactics and decision making won through. On the other hand, JF opted for risky strategies last week to avoid long games but his macro and decision making looked up to speed. At this moment in time I don't think either are as strong as TT1 in macro. Thus I expect the games to be a war of tactics and control. I think White-Ra's experience is going to be of great help to him here, and thus I give him a slight edge. If the game reaches that fabled equilibrium, I expect White-Ra to narrowly be able to edge JF out.

So will those games get to this equilibrium? Game 1 is on Andromeda, a map known for macro based play. The mineral only expo tempts the player into skipping robo tech and getting a faster expansion. But let's look at the facts. Last week White-Ra went for a very standard Gate-Robo-Gate build - typical for big maps. I don't think White-Ra will bother to change things up on Andromeda since the build he's using is 100% safe against everything, except for 3-4 Gate goon. JF gets to sit down and think about how he wants to play this - he can take a risky route and get a fast Nexus at his mineral only by delaying robo tech, he could try and cheese with 3-4 Gate goon or he can take a safer route by playing the same Gate-Robo-Gate build. Given how JF played last week, my bet is that he tries to take an early lead with either a 3-4 Gate goon build or a 2 Gate/Reaver build to try to break White-Ra's expansion. As such, I think JF will take an early 1-0 lead.

White-Ra decided to play Tornado in the exact same way as Andromeda - Gate-Robo-Gate and TT1 tried to 3 Gate Goon him (and failed). Tornado isn't as big as Andromeda, so perhaps Gate-Gate-Robo might be a better build to exploit White-Ra's slower units. However, given that White-Ra defended TT1's 3 Gate, I don't think this is a map that JF should be trying to cheese. He should play Gate-Gate-Robo with an eye to expand as soon as he can. He won't come into the midgame with much of an advantage, but with some nice Reaver harass things might go his way. Ultimately though, I expect White-Ra to take this.

Outsider is a map where expanding quickly is standard. This means that players are likely to delay robo tech which opens the window for Dark Templar tech or 2 Gate/Reaver pushes. Despite these opportunities, I expect JF to get speed shuttles and Reavers and harass like crazy, since Outsider is a map where harass is particularly effective. White-Ra knowing this might try for a Dark Templar opening and catch JF off guard. Even if both player play mirror builds I like this map for Reaver harass and hence I'm going to give the edge to JF.

Destination is a great map for defence, and typically ends up with massive PvP stalemates. As such, this is a map where PvP equilibrium is reached more often than not. Since I give White-Ra a firm edge in these circumstances, I expect him to be able to take Destination. If I were JF I would be opening Dark Templar with a quick expansion to try and get a decent advantage going into the midgame and hopefully be able to overrun White-Ra. Nevertheless, I expect White-Ra to even things up here 2-2.

And then we come to Fighting Spirit - another very large map. With so much at stake, I expect both players to do what it comfortable to them - Gate-Robo-Gate all the way. I predict that White-Ra will play slightly more cautiously than he otherwise would (especially if JF harassed like crazy in Game 3) and be on the lookout for Reavers. It would be a mistake, in my opinion, for JF not to be using Reavers extensively on this map since harass can be quite effective (since there are a few blind spots on the map if you don't put scouting pylons there, or an obs over your natural). I actually expect White-Ra's cautious play to put him behind and give JF a decent lead, and thus, JF taking the series 3-2.

With all that said, I think this series is going to be particularly tight. Neither player has perfect macro and both somewhat rely on their experience and tactics to pull out wins. I look forward to seeing how JF is going to handle White-Ra's unambitious playstyle - in particular I'm eager to see how he's going to use his Reavers. JF said in his interview that isn't going to be able to practice too much this week, so I hope he's thinking a lot about this series while he's not playing SC. If he can devise a clever set of strategies against Gate-Robo-Gate he should be able to take this series.


After last week’s heart attack inducing series, ret looks to be in tip top shape to take on Sen. While there were a number of occasions where everyone had their hearts in their mouths as furious ling battles and stalwart extractors did their thing, ret's play looked pretty good. Couple this with the fact he's only had to play ZvZ for a long time, he's had the best preparation possible. Sen on the other hand is beasting it up. As the sole survivor of the Asian region, he has access to the Chinese community and as such a variety of possibly unconventional strategies - not that ZvZ is a matchup that needs those!

While ret supposedly has built his ZvZ off of his Mutalisk micro, the rest of his game also looks reasonably up to par. As such, I don't think Sen's superior experience in the matchup is going to help him very much. ZvZ is a matchup about your mechanics and control more than anything else so whoever is sharpest on the day is going to take this series.

Predicting what build the players are going to use is pretty difficult since if the players are trying to predict each other they could end up just running around in circles. Instead, let's review how ret approached these maps against Castro:

Fighting Spirit: 12 Hatch (vs 9 pool speed)
Destination: 12 Hatch (vs 12 pool speed)
Outsider 12 pool expand (vs 12 pool expand)
Tornado: 12 pool speed (vs 12 pool speed)

Ret's choices were all reasonably standard, and I don't think switching everything up is going to give him any advantage at all. Even if Sen reviews these games in detail, there's not much he can really gain from it other than finding areas where ret is weak. All I expect from this series is crisp clean play from both sides and *hopefully* another amazingly entertaining encounter like we had last week. This is a difficult series to predict, but I’m going to go with my gut feeling that ret will take this series 3-2.


Ah, the TSL Seeding match rematch. Both sides are very confident that they will be able to take this series - that means someone going home with a broken ego. Idra firmly believes that the only way Nony can beat him is by cheese whereas Nony believes that he has been able to shake off the rust and up his skill to a point where he can go toe to toe with Idra. Both of these players are huge heavyweights in the TSL and the winner of this match will be a heavy favourite to reach the final.

Both players like to play a very Korean style (for obvious reasons). As such, neither are much for cheesing. Nony is known for his meticulous preparation of his builds (which was somewhat lacking in their last encounter admittedly) while Idra is known for his beastly macro. Let's briefly review how each player approached the maps in their last encounter:

Outsider:
Nony: Gate-Robo-Nexus
Idra: 2fac push with siege (then mines)

Andromeda:
Nony: 12 Nexus into double Nexus with Reavers
Idra: Siege Expand into double CC

Destination:
Nony: 2 Base Carrier
Idra: Timing push w/ Goliaths (straight counter to Nony's build)

Tornado:
Nony: 1 base Reaver into expand
Idra: Siege expand

Now I know Nony will have gone over this series and analysed every little facet of Idra's play. Idra is probably right; Nony isn't going to be able to win this series without some cheese. Straight up standard play will probably be exactly what Idra wants and is hoping for - and what he is best prepared against. Idra tends to go siege expand, or at the very least siege mode first. This opens up a whole host of G5-esque shuttle tactics which Nony may want to explore. Anyway, let's have a look at each of these maps.

Andromeda is the one map where Nony was able to claim victory after some miraculous storming. I really like the build Nony used here last time - but I would use that first shuttle to expand to the island. That island can prove to be very very useful since it is immune from any timing pushes. Once Nony gets 4 bases up he should be progressing exactly as he did in the first game. If I were Idra, I would be looking to do some Brat_OK style Dropship play. Not only does this neutralise the island, but it also might be able to catch Nony sufficiently off guard that he gets a small edge - which he can then turn into a massive edge. I expect this map to yield a great game, as it did before, but I do hope that Nony is able to take the early lead here 1-0.

I feel that Tornado is a nice cheesy map. Being a big, but not so big map, it encourages macro oriented play yet allows for a number of cheesy strategies to be employed. Nony tried 1 base Reaver last time, which personally I'm not a fan of. I think that a Dark Templar drop strategy is much more effective on this map leading into 2~3 base Arbiter. Since Idra is likely going to open with Siege mode - mines will be somewhat delayed making this strategy even more effective. If Nony doesn't go for something cheesy (namely the DT drop), then I don't like his chances. Tornado tends to favour Terran and Idra macro will not let Nony breathe for a second. I'm hoping that Nony cheeses here, and thus goes 2-0 up in the series.

Outsider is a very misunderstood map I think. Rather than saying that T>P or P>T here, I would argue that the style that the players choose to play on this map completely determines the outcome. For instance, fantasy-esque Dropship play is really strong here, as is harass based Protoss play. Stylistically, Idra is expected to play a very conservative macro game - turtling to 4 bases then pushing out. However, last time he went for a super aggressive 3 tank push - which allowed him to set up a contain which led to his eventual victory. Nony's safe Protoss style I don't think is the optimal style to use on Outsider - and I hope he goes for something less standard like 12nex. After how Idra played on this map last time, I REALLY like his chances here. I think this is a very safe map for Idra - and I would be very shocked if Nony took this. Hence, Nony 2-1 Idra thus far!

Destination is a really really good PvT map. I don't care what Artosis says about it, Protoss against Terran here is easier than usual. As long as you are careful about keeping an eye out for drops and any other funny stuff, 2 base Arbiter (or 3 base Arbiter) is incredibly effective. What I hope to see out of Idra are some nice mine heavy pushes which cling to the edges of the map with a goal to break Nony's third. Nevertheless, this is a good map for Nony assuming he doesn't try to do any more of that 2 base carrier nonsense - 2 base Arbiter is so much better yo! Nony should take the series here.

If Nony replicates what he did last time on Andromeda (with an island expo), goes DT drop on Tornado and then rides the Arbiter imba on Destination I can see him taking this series 3-1. However, if something goes wrong and we end up on Fighting Spirit well... I don't think Nony has much of a chance. I think Fighting Spirit is a map which allows the better player to win. There is sufficient rush distance so that any funny stuff is going to get caught and the expansions are designed in such a way that they are easy to hold once taken. I think Idra is the better player, even though I'm calling 3-1 for Nony. As such, I expect him to take the FS game and so if it gets to game 5, Idra will take this series 3-2.


Now we have an interesting clash between an old school style and a new school style. And I'm giving full advantages to Mondragon in this series. There is a part of me that wants Fenix to win, so we can avoid having a ZvZ semifinal - but all the nostalgic memories of Mondragon destroying the foreign scene just makes me cheer emphatically for him. We saw last week that Fenix was able to take out Kolll by playing unconventional. Kolll's modern robot Zerg just could not adapt to Fenix and thus Fenix got a rather easy victory. Mondragon is the complete opposite of a robot. Last week we saw all kinds of interesting things out of him - including a proxy hatchery on Destination.

Fenix is going to have to show us that he is more than a robot Terran since I'm 100% sure Mondragon is going to be throwing all kinds of non-standard things at him. While these non-standard strategies may be the "inferior" way to go about playing the game, these strategies are only inferior if you know how to counter them precisely. This is part of the reason why Mech play was so effective for a while - Zerg had just forgotten how to play against it! I don't think Fenix is going to be able to come up with the right counters to Mondragon's strategies on the spot - and as such I expect him to lose. Furthermore, any deficits Mondragon has in the macro department he fully makes up for with lightening fast reflexes. But let's break this down map by map.

Fighting Spirit is a good way to start the series, since I expect the better player to win. I think we'll see this transition rather smoothly into a long game and from there we're going to see some fireworks. I eagerly wait to see how Mondragon's defiler control deals with a modern Terran like Fenix. What I'm interested to see is how Fenix is going to approach the late game - is he going to take the SK Terran route or the Flash Route (i.e. mass tanks). I have a feeling that the mass tanks route is going to be more effective against Mondragon on this map. If this does get to a long game, I think Fenix is going to have the edge since his mechanics are more refined than Mondragons at the moment and hence should be able to squeeze a victory out of him.

Destination is where I expect things to start getting bad for Fenix. Mondragon has already shown us his "$500 Proxy Hatch" strategy, and I am really interested to what he has prepared as his $1000 strategy. We know mech play is good here, so I expect Fenix to play mech. Furthermore, I think Mondragon is going to be well aware of Fenix wanting to play mech and thus we're going to be in for a treat once again. I think Mondragon is going to take Destination in convincing fashion.

Outsider is a fairly good ZvT map. I expect Mondragon to go for some Mutalisk opener into Guardians - since that seems to be the trendy thing to do here. Outsider is a very clever map and rewards intelligent players. If Fenix is just a robot, he's going to struggle against the intelligence of Mondragon. As such, I expect Fenix to fold under the pressure and Mondragon to go 2-1 up in the series.

I don't really know what to expect out of Tornado, I just have faith that Mondragon will be able to pull out something cool and impress everyone. I hope that he opens lurker with Queen support and lets the ensnare and infested party begin. However, that's probably me dreaming a little too much. On Andromeda it is possible that Fenix could win if the game goes long thanks to his superior mechanics. But ultimately, I feel that Mondragon's keen strategical sense and lightening fast reaction times will lead him to victory on one of these two maps. I'm calling 3-1 for Mondragon.