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TL Mafia XVIII

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 12 2010 17:32 GMT
#160
sent incognito a pm.. but posting here as well just in case. i'd like to participate if there's room plz!
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 14 2010 06:12 GMT
#448
Yaay I am lucky #51 in this game. Thanks to Incognito for letting me participate despite the 50 person cap!

There has been some debate about whether discussing clues this early on in the game is beneficial or detrimental to the health of the town, but I would just like to give my input.

As others have mentioned, in the passage there is quite a lot of imagery regarding darkness and light. A lot of players' profiles allude to this in some form or another. So in this regard, getting carried away and everybody jumping on the bandwagon and pointing fingers at individuals whose profiles have a vague connection to these clues may not be the best idea.

(That said though, I would not readily dismiss Ace as potential mafia as his quote is tightly linked to the dark/light imagery, but more importantly, his scathing post dismissed accusations against him only based on a "im smart and valuable, ur dumb" kind of thing..argumentum ad hominem?!)

However, I do think that there are more subtle clues in the Day 1 passage that may be beneficial to discuss, because they aren't such broad overarching themes like light vs. darkness/shadows.

Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman

dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.


These clues stood out to me.. They both concern reflection/illusion/mirror-images. I thought that such clues may be worthwhile to look at this early on in the game because they are subtly woven into the text but refer to imagery that is quite specific. I was under the impression that maybe there would be very few users with mirror/reflection/illusion references in their profiles, so I looked through all 50.

My findings:
+ Show Spoiler +

d3_crescentia
What is love? A simple reflection of the state of our condition; that which embraces the dialectical play between I-and-Thou - always immanent, but ever transcendent; always between but never entirely encompassed; always now, but also then and forever. Thus we find love in the here and now, as mirrors of our destinies, of our eternities.

Phrujbaz
The board is a mirror of the mind of the players as the moments pass. When a master studies the record of a game he can tell at what point greed overtook the pupil, when he became tired, when he fell into stupidity, and when the maid came by with tea.

789
I can see what you see not—
Vision milky, then eyes rot.
When you turn, they will be gone,
Whispering their hidden song.
Then you see what cannot be—
Shadows move where light should be.
Out of darkness, out of mind,
Cast down into the Halls of the Blind.


I'm going to have to admit though that my search was not as successful as I thought it'd be. Only three profiles had references to mirrors/reflections/illusions, which may be a good thing, but they're all kind of a stretch/only loosely connected (especially d3's and Phrujbaz's). I am only slightly more inclined to 789's because in addition his quote "Tell your assassin to aim for her head, because she has no heart." may relate to
dreamflower quickly walked back to her closet and retrieved the most accurate gun she could find, and parked near her window, waiting.
The phrase "most accurate gun" seems odd to me and I would think that it is a clue.

Disclaimer: I am definitely not accusing these 3 people at this point in time. As a newbie to this game, I am not familiar to how tightly Incognito constructs his clues/how closely they're linked, etc. Would appreciate any veterans' input.
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 14 2010 07:21 GMT
#482
On February 14 2010 15:38 Zato-1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2010 15:12 madnessman wrote:
As others have mentioned, in the passage there is quite a lot of imagery regarding darkness and light. A lot of players' profiles allude to this in some form or another. So in this regard, getting carried away and everybody jumping on the bandwagon and pointing fingers at individuals whose profiles have a vague connection to these clues may not be the best idea.

Well I'll be damned, someone actually made a compelling case for why the suspicion on Ace may be misplaced. Color me impressed.

The fact that darkness and light references not only have to do with the twin horsemen that killed Qatol, but go on with the burning house, the shadowy figure that killed Incognito and the radiant being that killed Kennigit... it does raise the possibility that while trying to portray one mafia family with imagery of darkness and the other with light, Incognito unwittingly placed Ace in the crossfire.

I am now prepared to admit that the evidence against Ace is insufficient. Well done, madnessman.


Haha I did also say this in the next paragraph though:
(That said though, I would not readily dismiss Ace as potential mafia as his quote is tightly linked to the dark/light imagery, but more importantly, his scathing post dismissed accusations against him only based on a "im smart and valuable, ur dumb" kind of thing..argumentum ad hominem?!)


In any case, I think we have to vote for the Mayor/Pardoner soon, so it would be useful to know who's running and other info.

Procrastinating from doing homework.. ergo a catch up for people lost in the sea of posts/just compiling what has been said so far.

Mayor Candidate | Reason to vote | Who they will lynch and why (info objective: as given in their platforms)
The Good | The Bad (info subjective: the general publics opinion)

BloodyC0bbler | The voice of unity and strength | ?
Very experienced | Platform has no substance, therefore suspicious when compared to prev. platforms

Chezinzu | N/A (lol) | ?
Fresh blood | Pointless spam

L | Excellent clue-analyzer (his name is L for gods sake people lol) | Ace I'm guessing? For strong clue-linkage? Also mentioned Chez or an inactive.
Very experienced, very successful in the past | Overly aggressive strategy towards Ace?

l10f | He has a blue star/is awesome | Mafia member who killed him off last game/Chezinu (joke answers i believe)
Fresh? | Has proposed no game plan or given any serious answers.

Bill Murray | Liberty, equality, power | Whoever the majority wants
Will listen to the public voice | Will just jump on the band-wagon

Meeple | Active, prev. experience as mayor turned out well | ?
Unbiased, impartial, observant | no criticism so far

DoctorHelevetica | He finds it nice to have a special role | Bloodyc0bbler for suspicious platform
Fair, will listen to public | no criticism so far

I'm personally leaning towards L for mayor but am wary of Ace being innocent and as a valuable asset being killed off so early in game.

As a note to quickstriker, out of say 6 people running, assume 1 from each family will be in the elections. Normally a family would put forth 1 possibly 2 members (this case not as safe as the other family is watching) so most likely 1 from each family, maybe one family put ahead 2.


So as BloodyC0bbler has said, we should expect at least two of these candidates to be mafia members? HMM D: SO MANY QUESTIONS SO FEW ANSWERS
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 14 2010 07:31 GMT
#485
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 14 2010 16:21 madnessman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2010 15:38 Zato-1 wrote:
On February 14 2010 15:12 madnessman wrote:
As others have mentioned, in the passage there is quite a lot of imagery regarding darkness and light. A lot of players' profiles allude to this in some form or another. So in this regard, getting carried away and everybody jumping on the bandwagon and pointing fingers at individuals whose profiles have a vague connection to these clues may not be the best idea.

Well I'll be damned, someone actually made a compelling case for why the suspicion on Ace may be misplaced. Color me impressed.

The fact that darkness and light references not only have to do with the twin horsemen that killed Qatol, but go on with the burning house, the shadowy figure that killed Incognito and the radiant being that killed Kennigit... it does raise the possibility that while trying to portray one mafia family with imagery of darkness and the other with light, Incognito unwittingly placed Ace in the crossfire.

I am now prepared to admit that the evidence against Ace is insufficient. Well done, madnessman.


Haha I did also say this in the next paragraph though:
Show nested quote +
(That said though, I would not readily dismiss Ace as potential mafia as his quote is tightly linked to the dark/light imagery, but more importantly, his scathing post dismissed accusations against him only based on a "im smart and valuable, ur dumb" kind of thing..argumentum ad hominem?!)


In any case, I think we have to vote for the Mayor/Pardoner soon, so it would be useful to know who's running and other info.

Procrastinating from doing homework.. ergo a catch up for people lost in the sea of posts/just compiling what has been said so far.

Mayor Candidate | Reason to vote | Who they will lynch and why (info objective: as given in their platforms)
The Good | The Bad (info subjective: the general publics opinion)

BloodyC0bbler | The voice of unity and strength | ?
Very experienced | Platform has no substance, therefore suspicious when compared to prev. platforms

Chezinzu | N/A (lol) | ?
Fresh blood | Pointless spam

L | Excellent clue-analyzer (his name is L for gods sake people lol) | Ace I'm guessing? For strong clue-linkage? Also mentioned Chez or an inactive.
Very experienced, very successful in the past | Overly aggressive strategy towards Ace?

l10f | He has a blue star/is awesome | Mafia member who killed him off last game/Chezinu (joke answers i believe)
Fresh? | Has proposed no game plan or given any serious answers.

Bill Murray | Liberty, equality, power | Whoever the majority wants
Will listen to the public voice | Will just jump on the band-wagon

Meeple | Active, prev. experience as mayor turned out well | ?
Unbiased, impartial, observant | no criticism so far

DoctorHelevetica | He finds it nice to have a special role | Bloodyc0bbler for suspicious platform
Fair, will listen to public | no criticism so far

I'm personally leaning towards L for mayor but am wary of Ace being innocent and as a valuable asset being killed off so early in game.

Show nested quote +
As a note to quickstriker, out of say 6 people running, assume 1 from each family will be in the elections. Normally a family would put forth 1 possibly 2 members (this case not as safe as the other family is watching) so most likely 1 from each family, maybe one family put ahead 2.


So as BloodyC0bbler has said, we should expect at least two of these candidates to be mafia members? HMM D: SO MANY QUESTIONS SO FEW ANSWERS


shit mb citi.zen is also running.

citi.zen | Qualified, viligante | ?
Experienced, will analyze clues | no criticism so far

and Chezinzu.. pointless spam.. or is it?! playing mental mind trix on us i say.
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 14 2010 07:52 GMT
#492
On February 14 2010 16:38 redtooth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2010 16:33 Chezinu wrote:
On February 14 2010 16:31 madnessman wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 14 2010 16:21 madnessman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2010 15:38 Zato-1 wrote:
On February 14 2010 15:12 madnessman wrote:
As others have mentioned, in the passage there is quite a lot of imagery regarding darkness and light. A lot of players' profiles allude to this in some form or another. So in this regard, getting carried away and everybody jumping on the bandwagon and pointing fingers at individuals whose profiles have a vague connection to these clues may not be the best idea.

Well I'll be damned, someone actually made a compelling case for why the suspicion on Ace may be misplaced. Color me impressed.

The fact that darkness and light references not only have to do with the twin horsemen that killed Qatol, but go on with the burning house, the shadowy figure that killed Incognito and the radiant being that killed Kennigit... it does raise the possibility that while trying to portray one mafia family with imagery of darkness and the other with light, Incognito unwittingly placed Ace in the crossfire.

I am now prepared to admit that the evidence against Ace is insufficient. Well done, madnessman.


Haha I did also say this in the next paragraph though:
Show nested quote +
(That said though, I would not readily dismiss Ace as potential mafia as his quote is tightly linked to the dark/light imagery, but more importantly, his scathing post dismissed accusations against him only based on a "im smart and valuable, ur dumb" kind of thing..argumentum ad hominem?!)


In any case, I think we have to vote for the Mayor/Pardoner soon, so it would be useful to know who's running and other info.

Procrastinating from doing homework.. ergo a catch up for people lost in the sea of posts/just compiling what has been said so far.

Mayor Candidate | Reason to vote | Who they will lynch and why (info objective: as given in their platforms)
The Good | The Bad (info subjective: the general publics opinion)

BloodyC0bbler | The voice of unity and strength | ?
Very experienced | Platform has no substance, therefore suspicious when compared to prev. platforms

Chezinzu | N/A (lol) | ?
Fresh blood | Pointless spam

L | Excellent clue-analyzer (his name is L for gods sake people lol) | Ace I'm guessing? For strong clue-linkage? Also mentioned Chez or an inactive.
Very experienced, very successful in the past | Overly aggressive strategy towards Ace?

l10f | He has a blue star/is awesome | Mafia member who killed him off last game/Chezinu (joke answers i believe)
Fresh? | Has proposed no game plan or given any serious answers.

Bill Murray | Liberty, equality, power | Whoever the majority wants
Will listen to the public voice | Will just jump on the band-wagon

Meeple | Active, prev. experience as mayor turned out well | ?
Unbiased, impartial, observant | no criticism so far

DoctorHelevetica | He finds it nice to have a special role | Bloodyc0bbler for suspicious platform
Fair, will listen to public | no criticism so far

I'm personally leaning towards L for mayor but am wary of Ace being innocent and as a valuable asset being killed off so early in game.

Show nested quote +
As a note to quickstriker, out of say 6 people running, assume 1 from each family will be in the elections. Normally a family would put forth 1 possibly 2 members (this case not as safe as the other family is watching) so most likely 1 from each family, maybe one family put ahead 2.


So as BloodyC0bbler has said, we should expect at least two of these candidates to be mafia members? HMM D: SO MANY QUESTIONS SO FEW ANSWERS


shit mb citi.zen is also running.

citi.zen | Qualified, viligante | ?
Experienced, will analyze clues | no criticism so far

and Chezinzu.. pointless spam.. or is it?! playing mental mind trix on us i say.

I'm a noob at this game.. I just wanted to try.. Being new is so hard... I just don't understand this game... Can you please help someone with fresh blood?
lol you're new blood and citi.zen is experienced. niiiiice.


oh my bad i just meant that chez hasn't been a mayor before while citi has. didn't mean to offend, sorry >_<
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 15 2010 03:57 GMT
#820
On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part.
Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything.


Clue Analysis: Day 1

Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice.

Mafia A – The horsemen
“Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.”

“he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.”

“Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.”

“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen”
“He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.”

Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant.
“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.”

“The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.”

“However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.”


Analysis

Mafia A

I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used.

The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective.

I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found
http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651

It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote.
I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked.

The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly.
This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is
Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture.

Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad.

The third one I have linked is

Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter.

Mafia B

Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it.
Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games.

The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link.


I'm going to this just because I don't want either one of the mafia teams to jump to the conclusion that I'm on their opposing team and kill me off

While I can't argue against there being clues against me in the text, I do think your analysis is a bit weak in that 1. with enough of a stretch, you can link clues to anybody and 2. the madness connection might be a bit too blatant.

With respect to 1, I think that trying to link me to the killer for running through a wall is a bit much, just because my desc. says "no pain no gain" and having guts. If anything, charging through a wall should indicate strength, force, power. But said walls are described as "thin," and probably wouldn't be very painful to charge through, so I think your point is moot either way. Maybe if the killer had charged through a brick wall, it'd be a different story. Finally, there is no indication that the guy who rips Incognito's head off with a laugh is the same one who charges through a wall.

With respect to 2, me being the mafia because of "crazed psychopathic noises" would be a terrible clue lol. It'd be equivalent to Incognito writing a clue trying to pinpoint you, and saying: "the horseman trotted across bloody cobbles." I doubt a clue would be so blatant and so not clever, if you get what I'm saying :/. Tying me to "crazed psychopathic noises" takes no work whatsoever--you don't even have to take the effort to look at my damn profile.

Also, what happened to:

On February 14 2010 12:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2010 11:56 Mystlord wrote:
On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote:
Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.

Such elitism.

Regardless, I'm still all for incorporating clues into Day 1 discussion. For instance, we now have a defense from you, which is good for building a profile, whether you're innocent or not.


They are interesting to look at mystlord, but however, day 1 clues almost always end up being red herrings, and random accusations, even backed by clues aren't too good for the person doing them unless they end up being right. I learned that the hardway.


Clues aside, I would say that my posting behavior hasn't been suspicious either. I haven't been trying to swing votes or sway public opinion, nor have I been lurking/hiding.

Finally, I noticed in your clue analysis that you tie random clues that are a bit of a stretch to two people in particular -- me and Scamp. Coincidentally, both of us are also voting L for mayor. Maybe this is a big insidious plan in which YOU'RE mafia, and you're secretly basing your clue analysis from analyzing the votes for mayoral candidates thinking they'll help you kill off opposing mafia members?!?!

Lol the whole Scamp and me thing is probably just a coincidence... I'm just being ridiculous.
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 15 2010 04:15 GMT
#838
On February 15 2010 13:07 Chezinu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2010 13:03 tree.hugger wrote:
I have a feeling that way to many of these posts, especially the ones from our veterans are tainted by personal feelings. Which is a little disappointing, because only unbiased, in-depth analysis is what is going to win us the game.

And activity of course.

I don't think my last stint as mayor would make me a good choice for the post, but I would suggest that the mayor be someone without the massive ego.


I totally suck at this game... Everyone is so much better than me... I had a plan and it was total fail... I'm a noob... I have fresh blood... I'm annoying... I can't get people to vote for me.. not even a pity vote... tip 5 is my weakness...

+ Show Spoiler +
Vote for me! because I don't have a massive ego! Or do it?


chezinu is back! i personally think chez was hired by one of the mafia teams to create distraction/confusion/disorder lol. also as i said previously, when i referred to u as 'fresh,' i only meant in the sense that u havent been mayor before! not in the sense that u r noob, because i think u have a hidden agenda and tricks up your sleeve, all under the guise of cluelessness and pointless spam. geez -_-;; what do u have to say to that!
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 15 2010 04:24 GMT
#848
On February 15 2010 13:11 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2010 13:07 Bill Murray wrote:
Ace at first seemed to be acting like he did in a game I read before I played my first mafia game... a game where Chezinu was detective. I've looked for the game, but I can't seem to find the correct one. Chezinu basically comes out and yells "WHOO IM THE BEST DIE MAFIA" and ace facepalms just like this (not literally). But, still, I would really like to find that game. It might just be how he acts, though, which is the reason i'm not certain that DoctorH is red just yet, and don't push for his lynching even regarding past discrepancies (flaming him in pms/my stupid comment that forced edit in the previous game that ruined the game[thanks for the second chance, btw.]/the fact that we aren't really on friendly terms because of my meanness.), but with 39.7777%(rofl my math rulez)of the game mafia, how can u really be sure?

Ace, would you agree to dying if DoctorH flips green?



Sure. Why not? Also I act like I'm above the law and don't really care in most Mafia games. In the past ~4 games I've tried to just chill, sit back and let others do the work but then people become sheepish so I have to step in. This game I was called out before I even posted and I'm accused of being Mafia because I'm defending myself. Seriously this is getting pretty sad.


but compare the way you defended yourself vs. the way i defended myself.
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 15 2010 12:57 madnessman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part.
Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything.


Clue Analysis: Day 1

Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice.

Mafia A – The horsemen
“Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.”

“he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.”

“Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.”

“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen”
“He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.”

Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant.
“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.”

“The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.”

“However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.”


Analysis

Mafia A

I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used.

The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective.

I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found
http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651

It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote.
I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked.

The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly.
This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is
Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture.

Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad.

The third one I have linked is

Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter.

Mafia B

Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it.
Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games.

The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link.


I'm going to this just because I don't want either one of the mafia teams to jump to the conclusion that I'm on their opposing team and kill me off

While I can't argue against there being clues against me in the text, I do think your analysis is a bit weak in that 1. with enough of a stretch, you can link clues to anybody and 2. the madness connection might be a bit too blatant.

With respect to 1, I think that trying to link me to the killer for running through a wall is a bit much, just because my desc. says "no pain no gain" and having guts. If anything, charging through a wall should indicate strength, force, power. But said walls are described as "thin," and probably wouldn't be very painful to charge through, so I think your point is moot either way. Maybe if the killer had charged through a brick wall, it'd be a different story. Finally, there is no indication that the guy who rips Incognito's head off with a laugh is the same one who charges through a wall.

With respect to 2, me being the mafia because of "crazed psychopathic noises" would be a terrible clue lol. It'd be equivalent to Incognito writing a clue trying to pinpoint you, and saying: "the horseman trotted across bloody cobbles." I doubt a clue would be so blatant and so not clever, if you get what I'm saying :/. Tying me to "crazed psychopathic noises" takes no work whatsoever--you don't even have to take the effort to look at my damn profile.

Also, what happened to:

Show nested quote +
On February 14 2010 12:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On February 14 2010 11:56 Mystlord wrote:
On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote:
Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.

Such elitism.

Regardless, I'm still all for incorporating clues into Day 1 discussion. For instance, we now have a defense from you, which is good for building a profile, whether you're innocent or not.


They are interesting to look at mystlord, but however, day 1 clues almost always end up being red herrings, and random accusations, even backed by clues aren't too good for the person doing them unless they end up being right. I learned that the hardway.


Clues aside, I would say that my posting behavior hasn't been suspicious either. I haven't been trying to swing votes or sway public opinion, nor have I been lurking/hiding.

Finally, I noticed in your clue analysis that you tie random clues that are a bit of a stretch to two people in particular -- me and Scamp. Coincidentally, both of us are also voting L for mayor. Maybe this is a big insidious plan in which YOU'RE mafia, and you're secretly basing your clue analysis from analyzing the votes for mayoral candidates thinking they'll help you kill off opposing mafia members?!?!

Lol the whole Scamp and me thing is probably just a coincidence... I'm just being ridiculous.

not trying to be obnoxious, nor am i saying that i had an amazing/flawless argument or anything, but laan is right. ur defense seemed to merely comprise of a "y'all dumb i rule!" kind of thing :/.
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 16 2010 00:03 GMT
#1197
What the fuck just happened here. redtooth claims to be medic. Sudden influx of votes for redtooth. If redtooth wins mayor he can't be rolechecked :/
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 16 2010 00:05 GMT
#1202
On February 16 2010 09:02 Bill Murray wrote:
I voted for redtooth because after thinking about it, we can make him prove he is a medic can't we?


Care to explain?
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 16 2010 00:07 GMT
#1211
On February 16 2010 09:04 sidesprang wrote:
He won major if the last count was correct


Oh yeah you're right. In that case..

On February 16 2010 09:03 madnessman wrote:
What the fuck just happened here. redtooth claims to be medic. Sudden influx of votes for redtooth. If redtooth wins mayor he can't be rolechecked :/


Correction: redtooth claims to be medic. Sudden influx of votes for redtooth. redtooth wins mayor. redtooth can't be rolechecked

lolol. what now pplz
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 16 2010 01:51 GMT
#1298
What are the chances that redtooth or L are mafia?

Even though I voted for L, I'm beginning to think that the chances are extremely high. Basically, in this Gambino vs. Sumiyoshi vs. Townies game, it looks to me like the chances that a mafia mayor/pardoner is elected are extremely high. Why? The Gambino team has unity. The Sumiyoshi team has unity. The rest of us townies are in complete utter chaos. It would be so much easier for both teams to put up a candidate and get said candidate elected when they are acting in unity, as a coherent team operating under the same will and the same goals. On the under hand, us townies are acting individually; as a scattered, broken community, we each base our votes on which we THINK seems the most sincere.. whose rhetoric best persuades us. Ergo, it seems to me like it would be exceedingly easy for the mafia to get one of their own elected, ESPECIALLY given the total tally/vote count. Which is: redtooth: 10. L: 9. Each mafia team is already 10 people. With such low vote counts, a mafia team could single-handedly win their candidate a mayoral spot by their own members' votes alone, without any of the townies help at all.

But of course the mafia teams would know better than to fully throw their weight behind their candidate of choice, as it would be extremely obvious -- both to the town and to the opposing mafia team - if voila! all of a sudden 10 people end up voting for one particular candidate. But at the same time they're not all going to sit back and let the elections past without their own say.

Thus what i am trying to say is that maybe it is worthwhile to look at the mayoral candidates and voters. One question I had was: for those who are running for mayor, why would they vote for another candidate? Have any of you guys seen the movie Election? + Show Spoiler +
Candidate #1 running for class president votes for herself. Candidate #2, deciding not to be egotistical, votes for candidate #1. Candidate #1 wins by one vote and wins the election.
I doubt any of these guys would be so stupid as to make such a mistake. Of course, this situation is different in that candidates can't vote for themselves, and votes are not anonymous. But it seems to me that the rational thing to do instead of voting for oneself is to abstain.

Given, this is a shallow interpretation, so I've tried to evaluate plausible reasons why one candidate would vote for another.

Candidate #1 is MAFIA
- Candidate #1 votes for candidate #2 because they are both on the same mafia team. Therefore, they have the same end goal --> get someone on their team to be mayor/pardoner, regardless of whether it is #1 or #2. Of course one being mayor one being pardoner is their most ideal situation.
- Candidate #1 knows that his mafia members will swing votes his way; therefore, his vote is irrelevant. Votes for candidate #2 so he looks like he is looking out for the general will.

Candidate #1 is TOWNIE
- Candidate #1 votes for candidate #2 because candidate #1 wants a good pardoner by his side. However, he must assume that at least 2-4 of the other candidates running against him are from mafia families! Therefore, voting for another candidate, especially if you are a townie, is taking a great leap of faith imo.
- Candidate #1 distrusts who is in line to be his pardoner/mayor. Therefore votes for candidate #2 who he thinks is most trustworthy.

What seems suspicious to me is redtooth's voting. He voted for L. Yet there were many times during voting when they were tied or nearly tied (7:8), (9: 9)... Why the hell was he voting for L when doing so jeopardized his own chances of winning? Maybe he and L are on the same team. Maybe he knew he had voters in reserve (mafia members who were abstaining) who would last-minute vote for him if needed to, and therefore his vote wouldn't matter? Maybe role declaration was a ploy/an excuse so that when votes swung his way in the last minute of voting, it wouldn't seem like mafia members coming out of hiding, but innocent townies trying to protect a medic. Thoughts?
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 16 2010 01:59 GMT
#1299
On February 16 2010 10:36 Zato-1 wrote:
Yes, there are probably a few mafia among high-profile posters. There are two people among them who I believe are NOT mafia at this point- L and redtooth. L because he's been the single most powerful voice of reason so far and has provided the Town with leadership that might actually get us somewhere. redtooth, because of the post he made when he announced he would vote for L. At any rate, the important part right now is: It's night time. I said at one point that mafia are the men of action, the Town can only hope to direct their guns at one another instead of having them shoot randomly. Well, it's that time folks. If you want to do the Town a real service, post the names of those you think are mafia, and why you think that. It's in our best interest to help the mafia families to get to know one another right now.


Yes, because...
On February 15 2010 14:43 redtooth wrote:
AND IF YOU THINK I AM TOWN ALIGNED YOU SHOULD OBVIOUSLY VOTE ME MAYOR. seriously you are electing citizen literally solely on the fact that "okay he was good in last game". he has said nothing this game. he has done nothing to show his town-alignment. why would you risk that? GUYS USE YOUR HEADS!

L is pretty safe too. as a matter of fact i'm heading to the voting thread right now to vote L.


...is so convincing.

Unless you were referring to a different post? If so, quote it for me please.
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 16 2010 02:13 GMT
#1305
On February 16 2010 11:04 Ace wrote:
@madnessman: If going with your post let's assume redtooth is Mafia:

Go back to when he claimed Medic. I switched my vote off. Then I switch back on, with Emp and BM both voting for him also. With EMP flipping green it's not 100% certain that it was a Mafia split that tipped him over. If that's the case that means looking at the entire vote list, more accurately Bill Murray who was the deciding vote would "solve" your scenario. It would actually look more suspicious if Redtooth and BM had loose ties, aka barely talking to each other in the thread as that's surely a common mafia tell when none of them are in danger.

However, I'm more interested in the early voters. With 2 Mafia families neither can wait around for swing votes unless they felt their candidates were strong enough to get those votes early on their own.


Good point re: emp flipping green. Funny how he votes for redtooth though knowing that redtooth will lynch him. Could be in response to L's hostile pm's to him perhaps? lol. Either way, the vote count for winning positions in this election is so low that imo it would definitely be worthwhile to evaluate votes somehow...using your proclaimed "behavioral analysis" haha.
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 16 2010 04:16 GMT
#1346
On February 16 2010 12:41 Malongo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2010 12:36 d3_crescentia wrote:
On February 16 2010 12:32 Malongo wrote:
On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote:
My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there.

Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway.

I disagree here Ace. From mafia pov its direct that knowing all the bgs-> confirmed townies or at least few chances of mafia from the other family + 3 votes is huge. Think about this: this game is more likely to go until 20 players remain unless one family is absolutely demolishing the other. In this case having a mafia having 3 votes and clearing up the targets with the bgs list is lot better than 2 pardons overall. Having a mafia mayor is a huge advantage against the other mafia, having a pardoner *may* save one of your foes but its not like the other mafia cant target him anyways next night. As you see pardoner <<<< mayor for a mafia player.

So the point is, what is redtooth going to do about his claim¿ The best way to set this up is : Redtooth self claimed medic declares his target for protection before the night. This way the other family /assuming redtooth is mafia/ has the chance to hit that target and unreveal redtooth. It is win for that family because then they force the town to lynch him if he turns nonmedic, and it is win for that family in case the target survives because they can play knowing that redtooth is not in the other mafia.

Thoughts¿

Problem with this is if the declared target is in the same family as those that'll be targeting him - unless they're willing to sacrifice him.

Ok. Then we force redtooth to protect a target from the town: me. As you see i cant not be in Redtooths family /if im mafia and so is him/ because that would be stupid. I cant be on the others family IM ASKING TO GET HIT and protected. What about that¿ if redtooth claims protection on me and he should be because that way he can prove himself then i will live. /unless there are stacked hits on me wish will be noted in the number of deaths/ If i die redtooth is mafia.

THOUGHTS¿¿¿¿


There are many many flaws to this plan. HOWEVER I do believe it will work *IF* the mafia team that does not have Malongo or redtooth on their roster were to hit Malongo tonight, and none of the medics (aside from redtooth obviously) protects him!

Reason why:

Let's say
1. redtooth is MAFIA A and Malongo is TOWNIE
- Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. Malongo dies. We know that redtooth is not actually a medic and a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for both Mafia B and the town, bad for Mafia A

2. redtooth is a MEDIC and Malongo is MAFIA A
- Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. redtooth saves Malongo. Mafia B now knows that redtooth is actually a medic and NOT a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for Mafia B (Town remains ignorant as it has no way of knowing for certain that a hit was placed on Malongo.)

3. redtooth is MAFIA A and Malongo are MAFIA A
- Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. Malongo dies. We now know redtooth is not actually a medic and a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for both Mafia B and the town, bad for Mafia A

4. redtooth is a MEDIC and Malongo is TOWNIE
- Mafia A hits Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. redtooth saves Malongo. But because he got 2 hits does he die???

Ok, so DISREGARDING SCENERIO 4 because I'm unsure what happens in that case, if you are on a mafia team and redtooth is NOT on your roster... placing a hit on Malongo will benefit you regardless of whether he dies/does not die. (you'll have info on whether the mayor is on the opposite mafia team or is an actual medic.) and 2/3 of the proposed scenarios will benefit the town as well.

Think about it mafia people ;D

On a sidenote, in the case of scenerio 4, let's say malongo were to be saved despite having 2 hits (1 from each mafia team). then it really wouldn't matter since both mafia teams will still be on equal ground since they both used a hit on malongo.
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 16 2010 04:24 GMT
#1353
actually i hit post without thinking the whole thing through thoroughly. after more thought there are a lot of other things to take into account that i didn't consider >_<. so scratch my post above.
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 16 2010 04:45 GMT
#1367
On February 16 2010 13:24 Iaaan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2010 13:16 madnessman wrote:
On February 16 2010 12:41 Malongo wrote:
On February 16 2010 12:36 d3_crescentia wrote:
On February 16 2010 12:32 Malongo wrote:
On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote:
My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there.

Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway.

I disagree here Ace. From mafia pov its direct that knowing all the bgs-> confirmed townies or at least few chances of mafia from the other family + 3 votes is huge. Think about this: this game is more likely to go until 20 players remain unless one family is absolutely demolishing the other. In this case having a mafia having 3 votes and clearing up the targets with the bgs list is lot better than 2 pardons overall. Having a mafia mayor is a huge advantage against the other mafia, having a pardoner *may* save one of your foes but its not like the other mafia cant target him anyways next night. As you see pardoner <<<< mayor for a mafia player.

So the point is, what is redtooth going to do about his claim¿ The best way to set this up is : Redtooth self claimed medic declares his target for protection before the night. This way the other family /assuming redtooth is mafia/ has the chance to hit that target and unreveal redtooth. It is win for that family because then they force the town to lynch him if he turns nonmedic, and it is win for that family in case the target survives because they can play knowing that redtooth is not in the other mafia.

Thoughts¿

Problem with this is if the declared target is in the same family as those that'll be targeting him - unless they're willing to sacrifice him.

Ok. Then we force redtooth to protect a target from the town: me. As you see i cant not be in Redtooths family /if im mafia and so is him/ because that would be stupid. I cant be on the others family IM ASKING TO GET HIT and protected. What about that¿ if redtooth claims protection on me and he should be because that way he can prove himself then i will live. /unless there are stacked hits on me wish will be noted in the number of deaths/ If i die redtooth is mafia.

THOUGHTS¿¿¿¿


There are many many flaws to this plan. HOWEVER I do believe it will work *IF* the mafia team that does not have Malongo or redtooth on their roster were to hit Malongo tonight, and none of the medics (aside from redtooth obviously) protects him!

Reason why:

Let's say
1. redtooth is MAFIA A and Malongo is TOWNIE
- Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. Malongo dies. We know that redtooth is not actually a medic and a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for both Mafia B and the town, bad for Mafia A

2. redtooth is a MEDIC and Malongo is MAFIA A
- Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. redtooth saves Malongo. Mafia B now knows that redtooth is actually a medic and NOT a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for Mafia B (Town remains ignorant as it has no way of knowing for certain that a hit was placed on Malongo.)

3. redtooth is MAFIA A and Malongo are MAFIA A
- Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. Malongo dies. We now know redtooth is not actually a medic and a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for both Mafia B and the town, bad for Mafia A

4. redtooth is a MEDIC and Malongo is TOWNIE
- Mafia A hits Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. redtooth saves Malongo. But because he got 2 hits does he die???

Ok, so DISREGARDING SCENERIO 4 because I'm unsure what happens in that case, if you are on a mafia team and redtooth is NOT on your roster... placing a hit on Malongo will benefit you regardless of whether he dies/does not die. (you'll have info on whether the mayor is on the opposite mafia team or is an actual medic.) and 2/3 of the proposed scenarios will benefit the town as well.

Think about it mafia people ;D

On a sidenote, in the case of scenerio 4, let's say malongo were to be saved despite having 2 hits (1 from each mafia team). then it really wouldn't matter since both mafia teams will still be on equal ground since they both used a hit on malongo.


5/6. Redtooth and Malongo are medic/townie, and either 1 mafia hits malongo, or neither mafia do.


That's scenario #4. These are outcomes of the scenario providing that the mafia team that does not have redtooth on their roster DEFINITELY places a hit on malongo.
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 16 2010 14:55 GMT
#1400
Could someone explain to me why everybody is so certain Chezinu is DT and not a mafia member?!
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 17 2010 00:32 GMT
#1502
i thought that it was against the rules to post pm's?
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 17 2010 00:48 GMT
#1521
On February 17 2010 09:43 Bill Murray wrote:
let's assume that last person was chezinu, and redtooth wasn't lying.


u have no basis on which to assume that. it's very possible that redtooth was lying and nobody wanted to hit chezinu. don't jump to baseless conclusions ;(
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