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BloodyC0bblers's Mafia XVI
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On January 19 2010 14:56 QuickStriker wrote: And what do you mean by separate tab? I mean don't you still have to end up going to the forum index and then look thru? It's not like I'm going to have my laptop/PC on 24/7/365... Most newer browsers such as opera and firefox remember tabs. So if you keep an open tab of the mafia thread, shut your browser down and switch off your PC. The next time you start your browser it will load your tabs you had before. (although you need to configure firefox to not start from homepage to do this) | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
Firstly the method of picking the sheriff and mayor. + Show Spoiler + We have two real options here: one is to go for a random vote i.e. every person draws a random number from 1 to 34 and then another from the remainder and those are the votes. The second option is to support the candidatures of people who have expressed desire to be those roles. As far as the first method goes one can calculate that the probability of at least one from the sheriff or mayor being mafia is 0,374 or 37% basically. So the only reason we should go for the second choosing method is if we believe we can achieve a lower probability by it. Why I dont believe this is possible: the only reason a person will nominate himself is if that person has an incentive. These can be of two kinds: good or bad. Its trivial to see why bad incentives harm our chances (ie. the person is mafia). The good incentives can also be harmful mainly because such a person desires the role for: a) "protection" . This will adversely affect his playstile because he now does not have to put that much effort in argumentation. This line of thought is similar to the economics research done, whereby an increase in cycling helmets' safety actually lead to an increase in cycling related injuries. b) because " he wants to lead the town". Its a democracy and relying too much on the individual opinion of some person who happens to be elected for a responsible position, without any real arguments, will skew the towns analysis and judgment. Hence such positions should only be used to utilize their special "abilities" and not to add any analytical weighting. Therefore I propose the random pick method for our sheriff and mayor. The probability is reasonable and ensures we do not succumb to any adverse selection issues. Secondly no_re's fine analysis of the connection to Quick(Attack)Striker and his subsequent replies make me feel a bit suspicious. Let me put some additional stuff forward for consideration: Before no_re posted his analysis placing some suspicion on QuickStriker, he had made a total of 9 posts in the thread. Of those only 2 are edited. i.e. 2/9. However once the analysis was posted all of his subsequent posts, until some other member pointed this out to him, are edited, and one is edited more than once. Couple this with the fact that he is an old TL member, with around 1500 posts, and so should be familiar that Tl.net and other forums frown on post editing. Therefore his edited posts after the analysis by no_re could hint that he got a bit uneasy. Its hard to tell whether he got uneasy because he's mafia or because he's nervous for being called out so early, but the narration seems to point to the former. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On January 20 2010 21:23 d3_crescentia wrote: Days last for 48 hours... there's plenty of time to discuss. I don't like the idea of voting for people simply based on how hard they say they're going to try. I've just seen this but is it not strange how d3_crescentia posts that he does not like to vote for people who simply say they'll try hard, but afterwards posts his own candidature where he says basically the same thing he slated a few posts ago, except its sugar coated with some pointless characteristics listing, which can by no means be verified. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On January 21 2010 00:27 d3_crescentia wrote: I like to shower myself with compliments. If you took offense to that, then I apologize. Two things: I don't think QuickStriker is mafia, but I'm not 100% sure. His posting behavior is pretty similar to the last game he played in. I do think, though that he has the right idea - we should investigate and dissect whatever clues we have right now for the DTs to check at night. In one of my earlier posts I recommended checking the bodies, especially since there weren't two but THREE deaths. We don't know how the first person died, and that in itself might be a clue. Nah man I did not, dont get too defensive, I was merely posting my thoughts, with the idea to get more people commenting. Of course we do not have nearly enough information right now to make any 100% correct decisions but every theory, no matter how accurate still generates some sort of a discussion which helps the town have more to base decisions on. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
To my eyes we have references of docks and tide i.e. sea/ocean, which might be a clue pointing towards Fishball Also "Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide." There is a player called softer These may be a bit too straightforward, but surely they are worth some consideration? Also since both of these guys have yet to post; it will be good to hear their opinions on the matter. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On January 21 2010 04:01 d3_crescentia wrote: Thanks for the enlightening post. I didn't mean to say that the first murder contained zero clues, just that there was nothing as far as manner of death goes. At the same time, I simply wasn't picking up on things. As for water-related things, there's also drinking. What makes me doubt, though is that the section is written in segments of both prose and poetry. My thought is that the prose would indicate what the real clues were, so you might be right about the tender-softer connection. Of course, I could be completely off-base with the poetry/prose thing, so... Hm i dont know its hard to put your finger on anything this early, especially with only a handful of people posting. Also Im no writer but to me the "poetry" sections include rhyme in a very haphazard manner. I mean isn't there meant to be some sort of consistent structure to it ? | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
 I will be abstaining from voting for now but will do so when i wake up tomorrow, I now have a better idea of who to go for. However, despite all the possible clues so far we have discussed I must say I have a gut feeling that XeliN might in fact be the red scum going for mayor/sheriff : 1) On January 20 2010 17:19 XeliN wrote: Also I put myself forward to run for election. Considered not doing as I have a survival instinct and don't want to have too much attention drawn to myself at an early stage but in all honesty I think i would be a good choice for either of the roles. You are called out by a certain member whose name now escapes me, and you ignore this but go off on a tangent. Given that you have made your claim to mayordom about a dozen of posts ago it seems weird you bring this up now. 2) If you look at his posts you will notice a certain tendency. He basically commentates a lot: i.e. he likes to state things which are obvious. To me this seems like some attempt to subtly gain credibility by not saying anything too provocative but still going with the trend a lot, since by saying obvious things no one can disagree with him and hence when people read the posts they will be subconsciously be lead to believe he is credible and trustworthy. Even if he is not red this still is not good since we all can read for ourselves and he is not adding any analytical value so far. 3) His last point, does not respond to an accusation from another poster but simply explains his campaign. What strikes me is that he is the only candidate who is speaking in definite terms i.e. [QUOTE]On January 21 2010 10:53 XeliN wrote: My candidacy for Mayor. I strongly believe that some of the Mafia have already given themselves away at a very early stage in this and as such know preciciely what I plan on doing were i to be elected into either of the roles. This is subject to change and reconsideration but let me be frank, I would vote to lynch, kill or incarcerate Quickstriker and or crescentia. There are others that I have suspicions about but nothing as strong as my feeling that both of these posters (Most specifically Quickstriker) are being manipulative and acting in a fashion that i would expect the Mafia to act. Now why would he write this when it is clear that he has a very small chance of actually being correct, and he knows it? I think it is because he wants to further add some false credibility to himself (further putting emphasis on point 2). 4) He claims that he will be a top priority for the mafia and we should protect him because of the "openess" of his posts. Well this makes no sense at all, because a) So far he has not said anything significant (still keeping his master plan under wraps) and b) the mafia would be silly to kill him, since that actually gives us MORE information than letting him live. 5) [QUOTE]On January 21 2010 10:53 XeliN wrote: I am also slightly drunk as i was playing HoN with a friend on skype and drinking abit so i probably ought to wait untill putting forward a post like this but what did waiting ever acheieve! [/QUOTE] This paragraph makes me very suspicious. Firstly why bring up that you have been drinking at all? The most likely reason is that he can use that as an additional tool, to make people not read too much into his post. Again it seems he is trying to say obvious and genuine things to win our trust. Secondly and more worryingly look at the grammar of the quoted paragraph. Note that before the paragraph about the drinking, he has only committed 2 spelling mistakes in 350 words; yet in a single 37 word paragraph commits 3 spelling mistakes. I believe these are intentional and he is artificially supporting his drunken claim. 6) He keeps repeating that people who disagree with him are welcome to an open debate. Well this again is obvious. Anything posted here is obviously open for debate, and the fact that he keeps telling us this, coupled with the fact that he hasn't been called out so far again furthers his aim to gain our trust. Note how he has been far busier in making these types of posts rather than actually trying to analyze for clues. 7) In the last paragraph of his post he does what ? You guessed it, going for the "friend available" routine, which again serves to further the aforementioned goals. I do not think so many repetitions and emphasis placement on one concept is random. He seems to spend too much time on strategies to further his own aims rather than the towns'. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://img228.imageshack.us/i/day1m.jpg/) Sucks that nearly half the players are inactive at this point. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
In any case I have already put my reasoning up, because thats what I think. People are free to form their own opinion and seeing as how you ignored most of my points and misread the others I do not feel the need to return to that thread of argument. On another more pressing note i put my vote in the other thread for d3_crescentia for mayor. I will now post my reasoning for doing so here. The way I see it there are three main candidates - Fulgrim, tree.hugger and d3_crescentia. I did not vote for Fulgrim, although i tend to agree with a post he made on Quickstriker and Xelin before my analysis. He is the most popular candidate although he has listed the least number of arguments to support his campaign. This I find slightly suspicious. tree.hugger I find is a bit of an enigma right now, since he has only made a few long posts and attempted to impersonate a "sage of wisdom" in all of them. I have not yet formed an opinion of him but I am suspicious when people try to tell me how and what I should look out for. I voted for d3_crescentia because 1) He has made good analysis of the narration and I do not believe that any mafia would go in such details like separating prose from poetry etc. 2) He has a very neutral style of posting, i.e. he does not jump on bandwagons too quickly, and is taking the input of other posters very seriously, even when It is not completely in tune with his own. These I feel are good attributes for a mayor to have and he is the only candidate to actually sort of back up the attributes he claimed he possessed in his campaign with his subsequent posts. 3) He is one of the most active posters, and this will be good for us if he can continue in such fashion when we have more information. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On January 21 2010 23:37 d3_crescentia wrote: Mayoral vote occurs on Day 1 and ends at 9PM PST. Mayor decides who we lynch at the end of Day 1 (not entirely clear on how this works yet). We then move onto Night 1 for 24 hours where DTs/Medics and Mafia can put in their actions, though we can continue to debate/discuss and suggest potential actions to take. So are we allowed to write in this thread during night time? This is weird, in other games I have played people are not allowed to post during the night and get modkilled for it. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
 . I think the election turned out alright, but it sucks big time to lose the inactive DT. I only hope that the replacement player will be active and we dont get anymore players quitting.Now I firmly believe that all of the mafia are among the active posters and furthermore I think that at least one of tree.hugger, laan and fulgrim is mafia, being the people with the highest votes (after d3, who I dont think is mafia as I previously stated) and because it will be silly for the reds to not participate in the election as the expected payoff of such a strategy outweighs the risk of being found out. Therefore I will be looking forwards to the posts of these guys and any day 2 clues which might be pointing fingers at them. Also, Xelin, I dont know what issues you have with me but consistently misspelling my nick (a 5 letter word), as well as your recent lashing out against me is childish and unfounded. Think about it. You are angry because my posts possibly played a part in you not getting any success in the election; well does that not imply that most posters actually agree with me that your "big block counter" was indeed off the mark and hence it might well be? Lastly I want to second the people who posted the "DT forming a circle of trust" theory; i think this is a good idea, since as i stated above we have 3 possible people on who to hone in after the day 2 clues and the DT should be role checking others in the thread to maximize his usefulness. PS. Its annoying for people to constantly repeat "omgz the other mafia is much more active go guys post". Stop this IMO. Fact of the matter is, the other game is formed by the people who signed up earlier than us, so it is only natural they are more keen and will post more. In addition this constant repetitive urging of other players to vote is not achieving anything, since people like to and will play at their preferred pace no matter what. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
WARNING: the mother of all spoilers! + Show Spoiler + 1) + Show Spoiler + You are called out by a certain member whose name now escapes me, and you ignore this but go off on a tangent. Given that you have made your claim to mayordom about a dozen of posts ago it seems weird you bring this up now. Here is the post I am talking about in the bold bit: + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 10:00 ShoCkeyy wrote: This is why I have voted for you. I like that you're already trying to help us newcomers and win the game. If you were to be a mafia, you wouldn't be doing this. Back to lynching XeliN Notice he hasn't posted since I called him out! Note that before this post you have not posted for a page and a half, and after this post you do not respond to Shcokeyy but do an unrelated and weirdly timed campaign post. This leads me to the next part of the point. The remaining bit. The "claim to mayordom" is a short way of saying "your desire to step forward as a candidate for election". Initially you posted your candidature on page six + Show Spoiler + On January 20 2010 17:19 XeliN wrote: Also I put myself forward to run for election. Considered not doing as I have a survival instinct and don't want to have too much attention drawn to myself at an early stage but in all honesty I think i would be a good choice for either of the roles. 2) + Show Spoiler + If you look at his posts you will notice a certain tendency. He basically commentates a lot: i.e. he likes to state things which are obvious. To me this seems like some attempt to subtly gain credibility by not saying anything too provocative but still going with the trend a lot, since by saying obvious things no one can disagree with him and hence when people read the posts they will be subconsciously be lead to believe he is credible and trustworthy. Even if he is not red this still is not good since we all can read for ourselves and he is not adding any analytical value so far. After the very first piece of analysis you start a bandwagon claiming QS is mafia, going with the trend. + Show Spoiler + On January 20 2010 17:01 XeliN wrote: A quick attack? Well with a player named QuickStriker in the game this looks like a kind of obvious clue. Also he was the first to respond to the first Sheriff Candidacy anouncement of Fulgrim, drawing attention to himself being "amused" by Fulgrim's "I'm not a mafia" comment. Comment post + Show Spoiler + On January 20 2010 17:01 XeliN wrote: This however, as far as I can tell is an exceptionally bad strategy, the point of electing a mayor or sherrif is someone who seems active, discerning and importantly decisive, and your suggestion of sit and wait reeks to me on manipulation at an early stage. Another comment + Show Spoiler + On January 20 2010 22:02 XeliN wrote: Sure i am aware of that xD, but im also concious that it is certainly going to be an ambition of the mafia in general to have their members run in the election race and so anyone who puts themselves forward is simply by that action more suspicious that one who doesn't. Another + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 03:12 XeliN wrote: heh Sagaz interesting you raised that as I was just outside having a ciggarette thinking over the things in this thread and how there have already been claims made, suspcions cast e.t.c and was thinking it might be extremely intelligent for the mafia as a whole to simply not post much, rely on us creating so much confusion amongst ourselves that they do not need to try to provoke it or develop it. Following the trend: Initially: + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 03:12 XeliN wrote:I don't agree that we ought to lynch the person who has posted least in any way though and am also inclined to think that the mafia have not adopted this strategy of just letting the town fuck it up for themselves. On January 21 2010 07:46 XeliN wrote: Im starting to warm to the idea someone mentioned earlier about lynching those that post least, not because i think it relates to them being mafia or would be productive in any way just out of sheer annoyance. Yet another: + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 10:53 XeliN wrote:Furthermore anyone who wishes to question anything about My posts or has any suspicions at all I will respond with openly and what I will intend to be clear and rational. These are plenty examples. Note that the rest of the point is deductive analysis, which is based on such posts, yet you dismiss it completely in your reply. 3) + Show Spoiler + His last point, does not respond to an accusation from another poster but simply explains his campaign. ( I repeat myself here with point 1) What strikes me is that he is the only candidate who is speaking in definite terms i.e. On January 21 2010 10:53 XeliN wrote: My candidacy for Mayor. I strongly believe that some of the Mafia have already given themselves away at a very early stage in this and as such know preciciely what I plan on doing were i to be elected into either of the roles. This is subject to change and reconsideration but let me be frank, I would vote to lynch, kill or incarcerate Quickstriker and or crescentia. There are others that I have suspicions about but nothing as strong as my feeling that both of these posters (Most specifically Quickstriker) are being manipulative and acting in a fashion that i would expect the Mafia to act.[/QIOTE] Now why would he write this when it is clear that he has a very small chance of actually being correct, and he knows it? I think it is because he wants to further add some false credibility to himself (further putting emphasis on point 2). Compare this with the other candidates before him, who approach this in a more open-minded fashion. Again i stand by my conclusion. How can you be so sure that your theories are correct, that you consider them an important part of your campaign, when even you realize we do not have enough info for that level of certainness. 4) + Show Spoiler + He claims that he will be a top priority for the mafia and we should protect him because of the "openess" of his posts. Well this makes no sense at all, because a) So far he has not said anything significant (still keeping his master plan under wraps) and b) the mafia would be silly to kill him, since that actually gives us MORE information than letting him live. Your claim + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 10:53 XeliN wrote:I urge people to vote me in, I think i am likely to be a target for a mafia given the nature of my posts and openess of my suspicions and so on that basis only i would enjoy the protection. I still stand by my point. Your claim i have quoted above makes no sense because of the two points a) and b). 5) + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 10:53 XeliN wrote: I am also slightly drunk as i was playing HoN with a friend on skype and drinking abit so i probably ought to wait untill putting forward a post like this but what did waiting ever acheieve! This paragraph makes me very suspicious. Firstly why bring up that you have been drinking at all? The most likely reason is that he can use that as an additional tool, to make people not read too much into his post. Again it seems he is trying to say obvious and genuine things to win our trust. Secondly and more worryingly look at the grammar of the quoted paragraph. Note that before the paragraph about the drinking, he has only committed 2 spelling mistakes in 350 words; yet in a single 37 word paragraph commits 3 spelling mistakes. I believe these are intentional and he is artificially supporting his drunken claim. I think my points here are valid even though they are a bit far fetched, the variance of the errors in your writing is very large up to this point. Again this is what I felt at the time thinking about the game and put it in words. You completely ignore this paragraph in your retort. 6) + Show Spoiler + 6) He keeps repeating that people who disagree with him are welcome to an open debate. Well this again is obvious. Anything posted here is obviously open for debate, and the fact that he keeps telling us this, coupled with the fact that he hasn't been called out so far again furthers his aim to gain our trust. Note how he has been far busier in making these types of posts rather than actually trying to analyze for clues. Example + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 10:53 XeliN wrote:Furthermore anyone who wishes to question anything about My posts or has any suspicions at all I will respond with openly and what I will intend to be clear and rational. Another + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 02:49 XeliN wrote:Neither of those two assertions has any merit and i challenge you to make a clear and logical argument as to why. Another + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 02:49 XeliN wrote:Likewise please provide clear explanation for everyone to see and assess as for why you have named me, otherwise i suspect they may draw similar conclusions that i have. Given the above my reasoning is plausible. Also you have indeed only been involved in arguments with other players and only have 1 post on analyzing the clues (which is the only real concrete info we have so far). So my other point still stands. 7)+ Show Spoiler + 7) In the last paragraph of his post he does what ? You guessed it, going for the "friend available" routine, which again serves to further the aforementioned goals. This is self explanatory. As you can see from the above I have indeed based the analysis on your posts, and since 99% of the thread so far is speculation since we have little concrete info, it is laughable for you to begin PM'ing me and lunging at me in the thread simply because I have called you out. Before I conclude this mammoth of a post, let me draw attention to your posting style again. You write about everything with 100% certainty and you still sprinkle your arguments with certain things, which at this point are pointless to say as anyone will claim this when queried. e.g. + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2010 07:10 XeliN wrote:Another reason i suspect him and is I have the knowledge that I am innocent, Finally, I still stand by my original conclusions. Your posting style is still making me suspicious and I believe this may be down to one of the following reasons: - You're mafia and being a new player got freaked out, that you might be found out, given someone is putting so much effort in analyzing your posts (which is my default posting style anyway). - You have a blue role and dont want my posts to risk you getting lynched, but you jump to conclusions very quickly and dont think things through (further evidenced by your unprovoked flame PMs to me). Again read the very first sentences of my initial post on you. It is a gut feeling and my thoughts, why do you feel so threatened? | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
 Ill take a look at the clues and try to figure something out. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
1) Quickstriker + Show Spoiler + - The figure may refer to the chess piece in the picture of his profile, as in a chess figurine. - "Object in his hands" although the piece is not "long", it is being held in the hands of the character - Note how the guy in his picture is slightly tilted to one side and it could be said he is "looking over his shoulder". Also those large expressive , jap art eyes can easily be linked to the "gaze", "eyes gazing" 2) iplaythings+ Show Spoiler + - The murdered were playing a "late night game" 3) drinking + Show Spoiler + - Note he joined TL on the 31 of December. I would classify this as a pretty memorable night. 4) softer + Show Spoiler + - In his profile quote: "Visualize success, but dont believe your eyes. I think this matches up really well with the quote from the narration "They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong." 5) no_re + Show Spoiler + - They played a bowling game, but it was their last one since they got pwnt by the killers and therefore will never be able to regame. 6) shockeyy + Show Spoiler + - Look at his profile pic. He's got the red eye effect in the photo, which makes his eyes look very expressive due to the black background. I believe this could be a reference to the "hypnotized" gaze in the narration, as his eyes look very menacing and hypnosis is usually done with a strong eye contact. Out of the bolded ones I believe the clue towards drinking is the most believable, since it is not very obvious but it still is not too far fetched. However the clue towards softer is very strong since we have a match of a whole sentence. Given that both these have had clue references in day 1 (i.e. the water for drinking and "tenderly" for softer) i currently believe that these two are the most likely to be mafia. Therefore I will vote for softer to be lynched for now, unless i hear some convincing arguments in his defense, since he has not replied in his defense to my day1 post stating the "tenderness" clue and he generally is keeping a low profile, but people should keep an eye on drinking as well since his clue is very persuasive IMO. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On January 24 2010 10:17 Iaaan wrote: I've said before that I think clues should just be used to confirm other suspicions, not be the suspicion itself. But that said, I dont think any of these are significant/fit, except maybe the Shockeyy one and MAYBE just MAYBE the softer/quickstriker ones. but probably not. I disagree with you on this laaan. I think clues should be the primary factors which generate suspicion, since we have them black on white and we know they lead to the mafia. In contrast it is much harder to judge whether a post is a clue or giveaway since it is easy for people to obscure their roles. Therefore I believe it is better to create suspicion from the narration and then verify it with posts. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On January 24 2010 11:11 Iaaan wrote: Okay that's fine, but I just think that at this point clues are less reliable, because we don't know for sure what exactly are clues, and even if we do, we can still interpret them wrong. Fair enough, but thats what makes the game hard and interesting | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
I would not ask you to reconsider the posts or the clues, since I see nothing I say will change your viewpoint but keeping an open mind is a useful talent toi have in mafia games. The double vote is a good idea methinks, however shouldnt people put 2 lynch choices in the vote thread instead of 1? Choice 1 if a single lynch and choices 1 + 2 if a double. I am suspicious of softer and drinking as I have posted before and will therefore augment my vote. | ||
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