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On May 12 2011 13:30 orgolove wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2011 13:26 Mig wrote:
You have a ridiculous attitude orglove considering you didn't post for more than an entire day. Then you could have made the deciding vote but instead you let your vote not count and then post bashing the town 30 min later.
You talk about all the work you put in but you didn't post for what like 40 hours? And you are surprised no one went with your ideas after you completely disappear? Uh, I have lives like anyone else. I think I spent enough time on Day 2 of this game given it took like 6 hours to take the data, think of reasonable factors, apply the patterns, write up a convincing summary. And yet you guys would rather listen to ineffective and at best circumstantial evidence without looking at hard data. I can't change your behaviors. But you guys also can't force me to put in all that effort again, when I know it'll go to waste.
Mafia is about more than just statistical analysis, especially when you're taking such a small sample of data into consideration. And, yes, 2 days is a small sample.
We now have a 3rd day of data. As such, any analysis you do on this data has the potential to be even better. And now that you've already done the majority of the work setting it up (yes, I did read it all), it should be much, much quicker to add the new data to it.
chaoser left us a list of likely scum. He proved to be pretty damn good at identifying scum in this game, so his opinion holds a lot of weight. chaoser's list of sinani, ilovejohn, GGQ, and EternalMisfit so far contained 1 mafia, and he pegged one himself already. There's 2 we haven't checked. I suspect we'll find one more mafia between those two remaining people.
Technically, my only vote in this game has been against a town player, so I also fall under that suspicious category. I'm sure I've raised higher on your list of players that are suspicious (I remember I had something like ~10 pts already, right?).
The type of statistics you took look at the actions of people. It will not be exact, but it is a useful tool to pick out potential scum. It is also pretty easy to fake, given the right circumstances. I know that I've seen it done before. It's especially dangerous for a GF to act really, really pro-town, and even lynch his own mafia members to give them a better shot at winning down the line.
At the same time, substance is also a useful tool to identify scum. And, so far, we've been looking at the substance of what people have been posting to determine how pro-town or pro-scum they are. It is incredibly useful early in the game to hit scum, because there's not enough information for a statistical approach yet.
I know you're probably pissed that we didn't follow your list of players. That shit happens. And it sucks. But your approach will be very, very useful to us by the time day 5 or 6 hits. If you don't want to keep updating the spreadsheet, I can understand that. At least make it available for other townies to work on.
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I don't think orgo is GF. He's clearly upset that he took a lot of time to analyse the data and noone really took it into consideration.
@orgolove You effort on gathering the data sure is apreciated, but I don't think you wheighed the factors right. First of all there's a lot of hidden data when switching vote because you can't be sure of everyone's aligment. Second, scum likes to avoid suspicion so switching votes is not actually a scumtell. It's extremelly circumstantial. Third a vote on a mafia player when he clearly is in no danger of getting lynched is a null tell.
Most players on your list I have a town read on. DropBear claimed Vanilla Townie before anyone else said it. Varpulis might be scum, but I have a pretty good town read on him. AO might be scum, but irish started a bandwagon on him on day1, so the chances are thin.
ilovejonn is more resonable, but I'm still not sure.
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@Mig Can you point me to the post you found out Sinani206 was on 8th grade? I can't find it.
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United States4714 Posts
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Ok, since there's not much point in bringing up lynch targets right now, lets talk about something else?
I mentioned it earlier, but nobody really caught on (except sandroba), and I think it may be relevant for catching at least one of the scum.
The question was: Why KillerSOS and Jackal on night 1?
They seem like weird targets imo. Does anyone with more experience also find it weird? Because, if so, analyzing those night kills may provide us with some useful info.
It's just a thought.
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KillerSOS let it slip that he was blue, and jackal was tunneling Cthsazsa. They wanted to eliminate a blue and put suspicion on Cthsazsa. Fairly simple, imo.
By the way, I apologize if some of my comments earlier came off as arrogant. That was not my intent.
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I thought it was aidnai that basically let it slip he was blue? I don't remember seeing the same from KillerSOS..... Anyone remember where that was?
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Vatican City State1650 Posts
Hi. I had already made the spreadsheet available for download in the main post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=74#1473
Unfortunately, as we have no further revealed reds, addition of the latest votes will only give a small amount of new information, beyond just universally adding a small amount of points to everyone that voted for the revealed green.
Anyway, we see that ilovejonn keeps popping up in many lists, including chaoser's. I voted for him yesterday, and I'm voting on him again. I doubt someone who has turned up in our radar so many times is not a red.
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It's true, we won't get as much info from this lynch. But we'll also get some info based on who the mafia kill tonight as well, and if we get another red, we'll probably have a very, very strong case vs a couple of people.
Also, I didn't notice the DL link in the original post..... My bad.
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@ Impervious Killer slipped blue here and Jaminz noticed it here.
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Is there anything to discuss for the night, or do we just wait to see who bites the dust?
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I hesitate to post any analysis during the middle of the night, when it can effect the mafia's hit. Right before the day post, I'll post my general thoughts/scumreads/townreads in case i get night killed.
Other than that, there isn't much to say.
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Guys, do not forget about Sinani.
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He didn't get lynched, and EM was town. Since it was a close lynch, it's possible that sinani is scum, and the mafia tipped the balance towards EM. We won't know for sure unless he dies, or a 2nd DT checks him.
Although, I'm not sure if we even have a 2nd DT anymore. I've been assuming it, but we may need to actually play with the assumption that there is no 2nd DT.....
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On May 13 2011 06:55 Forumite wrote:
What about sinani206?
+ Show Spoiler +On May 12 2011 12:07 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2011 12:03 Varpulis wrote:
FoS ilovejonn and Sinani206. Throw in Jaminz for good measure. I´ve no idea about ilj, but Jaminz's save of sinani make them both almost 100% confirmed scum.
How did you so quickly forget about him.
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Yes, but I assumed that sinani206 and jaminz were more or less confirmed scum. We don´t need a DT to know they are high candidates for a lynch.
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Alright, I've read all jaminz post and they are pretty pro-town. He went out of his way analysing Amber and placing his vote on him. He cast suspicion over irish day1. He's definitively not lynch priority.
ilovejonn overreaction to 2 votes on him is a bit fishy. all his post except for the out-of-place EM analysis are completely irrelevant.
sinani might be mafia, but he could be newbie town aswell. He's TOO supicious and that makes me wonder if mafia could be so dumb.
elmizzt is pretty suspicious and was voting sinani so there's that. As I've said before he's been posting like a madman all over TL, but is mysteriously avoiding this thread. I've seen absolutely no content from him at all.
Forumite is a possibility, but it's not priority. He's pretty engaged, but without sinani's flip it's hard to tell. If sinani is town, forumite is a possibility.
If somehow ilovejonn is town, my money is on kita being GF.
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On May 13 2011 06:14 Varpulis wrote:@ Impervious Killer slipped blue here and Jaminz noticed it here.
Fuck. I missed that. Nvm about KillerSOS then.
But, why Jackal?
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Jackal was probably used so Cthsazsa could be an easy lynch day 2 and also to cast suspicion over me. That's all there is to it probably.
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EPT
