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On September 09 2012 06:45 mkfuba07 wrote:
I'm here. I meant to be through the thread already, but I didn't sleep last night, and subsequently fell asleep today while I was making my way through the thread. I quickly scanned through the last few pages, but since I've still missed much of the discussion I can't informedly place my vote. I'm going to have to bandwagon today.
Better start scumhuntijng dude, youve been absent for a long time, since starting.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On September 09 2012 06:47 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 06:42 imallinson wrote:
I've been out all day and caught up with the thread on the bus home. The day is almost over so sorry if this is a bit hasty. I'm not buying BKE's watcher claim.
First a few assumptions I'm making:
1) Mafia has one vig thus had effectively three kp night one not including GK's bomb.
2) Mafia used all their kp. Someone suggested they saved some to out blues but that seems like it would only work if pressure was being put on that blue so I think it's unlikely.
3) Mafia did not shoot Ottox.
If BKE is watcher then GK must have bombed BM and shot BC without a double stack. Therefore we are missing two kp. The only way for this to happen is a combination of a medic/jailer getting a lucky save, a scum shot hit an assassin or the jailer rb'd a scum.
To me this seems very unlikely because BC seems like the better bomb target and barring a medic saving BKE he should be dead. Also missing two kp feels really fishy to me. One getting blocked I could understand but two seems a little far fetched given the information available at the time (that no one apart from the two dead people seemed that town). If BKE is a watcher then scum did not double stack. He only saw GK, and he wouldn't be lying if he were actually a watcher.
That's what I said: "GK must have bombed BM and shot BC without a double stack."
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Anything else town needs to know?
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On September 09 2012 05:13 austinmcc wrote:
EBWOP: by "easiest fakeclaim," I mean he could have claimed to vig ottoxlol, or protect some random person that didn't get killed. Instead he chose to claim something that directly interacted with a guy we know was a target last night, and that someone might have been on, and that causes us to do NK math. Any claim that ends in town doing NK math seems much more ... difficult, because then later stuff can prove/disprove you very easily.
This basically boils down to "if I were scum I'd do a better job" which is not a good reason. I mean we've seen Mattchew fakeclaim, and you could have defended him on the same basis "if I were scum I would have double checked that they were not self aware". The fact is there is no good claim to make because the NK were pretty straightforward.
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On September 09 2012 06:48 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 06:47 austinmcc wrote:On September 09 2012 06:42 imallinson wrote:
I've been out all day and caught up with the thread on the bus home. The day is almost over so sorry if this is a bit hasty. I'm not buying BKE's watcher claim.
First a few assumptions I'm making:
1) Mafia has one vig thus had effectively three kp night one not including GK's bomb.
2) Mafia used all their kp. Someone suggested they saved some to out blues but that seems like it would only work if pressure was being put on that blue so I think it's unlikely.
3) Mafia did not shoot Ottox.
If BKE is watcher then GK must have bombed BM and shot BC without a double stack. Therefore we are missing two kp. The only way for this to happen is a combination of a medic/jailer getting a lucky save, a scum shot hit an assassin or the jailer rb'd a scum.
To me this seems very unlikely because BC seems like the better bomb target and barring a medic saving BKE he should be dead. Also missing two kp feels really fishy to me. One getting blocked I could understand but two seems a little far fetched given the information available at the time (that no one apart from the two dead people seemed that town). If BKE is a watcher then scum did not double stack. He only saw GK, and he wouldn't be lying if he were actually a watcher. That's what I said: "GK must have bombed BM and shot BC without a double stack." I am dumb.
On September 09 2012 06:50 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 05:13 austinmcc wrote:
EBWOP: by "easiest fakeclaim," I mean he could have claimed to vig ottoxlol, or protect some random person that didn't get killed. Instead he chose to claim something that directly interacted with a guy we know was a target last night, and that someone might have been on, and that causes us to do NK math. Any claim that ends in town doing NK math seems much more ... difficult, because then later stuff can prove/disprove you very easily. This basically boils down to "if I were scum I'd do a better job" which is not a good reason. I mean we've seen Mattchew fakeclaim, and you could have defended him on the same basis "if I were scum I would have double checked that they were not self aware". The fact is there is no good claim to make because the NK were pretty straightforward. Yes, it does boil down to that, basically. I'm not going to claim to have the best reasons in the world here, but I don't like the BKE lynch, and I'd rather lynch folks I find scummier.
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@imallinson
I'm guessing they are just missing one shot.
Mafia have 2kp + vigi + bomber to kill with. I agree that ottox was probably a town vigi kill, so there is one kp missing, no?
gk - BC or BM
1 kp - BM or BC
1 kp - ???
It's most likely that the mafia vigi didn't waste his shot, no?
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On September 09 2012 06:56 Z-BosoN wrote:
@imallinson
I'm guessing they are just missing one shot.
Mafia have 2kp + vigi + bomber to kill with. I agree that ottox was probably a town vigi kill, so there is one kp missing, no?
gk - BC or BM
1 kp - BM or BC
1 kp - ???
It's most likely that the mafia vigi didn't waste his shot, no?
Why would vigi shot be a waste? I figure mafia wants to thin out the town as much as possible thus the vigi is basically an extra kp for the first two nights. I could be wrong but there is more scummy stuff about BKE that was said before he claimed.
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Night Falls![[image loading]](http://htmlgiant.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/hal-2001-a-space-odyssey1.jpg) BroodKingEXE the Town Watcher has been lynched you have 24 hours to send in your night actions. Enjoy!
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You've got to be fucking kidding me.
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Also an option that mafia pretty much KNOWS ottox is gonna get killed. Half the town calling for him to be vigi-d. So town may have put a watcher on him to see who came calling. Mafia vigi shooting ottox gives him a legitimate claim later on, can be backed up by watching.
Come to think of it...woulda been interesting if scum had suicided on Ottox last night, in hopes of catching blues on him.
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Great.
Final thought before I shut down until tomorrow: Bill Murray, get in here!
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I don't even.
So Scum decided 1KP on BC was a good idea? ...
GK probably bombed ... so ...
Gah I'm just gonna wait till tomorrow NK to figure it out. By then vigs should have used their second bullet and should claim.
Gonna go cool off first.
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Welp. Gotta grab a drink or something. My apologies to BKE.
I have no idea what happened with the NK's night one. They put a single stack on BC and presumably suicide-bombed DrH. Might have been a medic-save somewhere N1 - that's the only explanation I have.
Going to take a dive through some filters tonight.
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On September 09 2012 07:13 Hapahauli wrote:
Welp. Gotta grab a drink or something. My apologies to BKE.
I have no idea what happened with the NK's night one. They put a single stack on BC and presumably suicide-bombed DrH. Might have been a medic-save somewhere N1 - that's the only explanation I have.
Going to take a dive through some filters tonight.
Ok, gonna have to start asking a bit of question here to get into things. First, who is DrH? Cant find any name or role fitting that.
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On September 09 2012 07:19 Kreb wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 07:13 Hapahauli wrote:
Welp. Gotta grab a drink or something. My apologies to BKE.
I have no idea what happened with the NK's night one. They put a single stack on BC and presumably suicide-bombed DrH. Might have been a medic-save somewhere N1 - that's the only explanation I have.
Going to take a dive through some filters tonight. Ok, gonna have to start asking a bit of question here to get into things. First, who is DrH? Cant find any name or role fitting that.
BlackMamba24 = smurf for DrHelvetica (a.k.a DrH)
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Rewok
Since BKE flipped town, this caught my eye:
On September 08 2012 01:27 Rewok wrote:
TBH with you, I'm a little hesitant to lynch BKE. I'll vote for him because it's better to get some blood than no blood, but it wouldn't hurt to open our search up a little bit. Don't we have more than 24 hours left?
Personally, I've had Mav on my radar for awhile because of posts he had on both Mattchew and Ottox (will find them later - gotta run to work now.) And this recent ShaoPi thing seems rather fishy as well.
So here's my ##vote BKE, with the readiness to unvote it and switch it up if we find someone better.
First he's hesitant to lynch BKE. Then he wants to vote for him because "it's better to get some blood than no blood" - NOT because he thinks BKE is mafia.
He then points fingers at two people (Mav and ShiaoPi).
Vigi shot anyone?
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On September 09 2012 07:29 Hapahauli wrote:RewokSince BKE flipped town, this caught my eye: Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 01:27 Rewok wrote:
TBH with you, I'm a little hesitant to lynch BKE. I'll vote for him because it's better to get some blood than no blood, but it wouldn't hurt to open our search up a little bit. Don't we have more than 24 hours left?
Personally, I've had Mav on my radar for awhile because of posts he had on both Mattchew and Ottox (will find them later - gotta run to work now.) And this recent ShaoPi thing seems rather fishy as well.
So here's my ##vote BKE, with the readiness to unvote it and switch it up if we find someone better. First he's hesitant to lynch BKE. Then he wants to vote for him because "it's better to get some blood than no blood" - NOT because he thinks BKE is mafia. He then points fingers at two people (Mav and ShiaoPi). Vigi shot anyone? I noticed this one too, didn´t think more about it at the time. He´s wishy-washy and doesn´t seem to want to take responsibility for the vote, though he´s definetly not the only one going by the "lynch for info" style of thought.
I don´t want to call a vigishot, not right after failing my read on BKE.
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BKE played this awfully... I think two things could have absolved him (disregarding his poor choices of decisions toward the very end):
1) Him leaving a breadcrumb. This would make his claim seem more believable...
2) A vet confirming my question earlier on, a question in which I probably would have insisted in if I weren't unnecessarily pressured to having defending myself during the last hours of day two.
He's saying that he visited BC and got back GK, because GK was the only one who visited him, when he exploded over BC.
I'm not too comfortable lynching a watcher this early in the game, should he be telling the truth.
To the vets: how common is there for there to be a watcher in a game of this size? Because if he is lying right now, the real watcher will screw him over later in the game, no?
I'll think more about his claim, it seems way too convenient.
This makes me highly suspicious of the remaining vets. Because BKE would clearly be a scumtell later on once the real watcher showed himself and attacked BKE. The only information that was required was the likelihood of there actually being a watcher, in which case BKE's claim would have been stupid as hell, as we were certainly gonna peg him scum once the real watcher showed himself.
I don't like how none of the veterans helped out at all during all of this. I am strongly inclined to think that at least one of them is scum. I also expected hapa to consider this, because something similar happened in XXIV (thrawn's vigi claim would have been utterly stupid as scum, because the real vigi would simply unmask him later on.)
The situation here was a bit more delicate, because we don't know for certain if there HAS to be a watcher. If someone could confirm the likelihood of there being a watcher (as I think it is very high), then BKE might actually have been saved.
But I'm sure that if this were the case, then at least someone with more experience would manifest himself.
I myself should have just not bothered with the crappy case against me, because lynching a watcher is quite a loss, and I should have been more insistent of when I thought of this possibility.
We are still in a good position, and I will go over the vets' filter, probably tomorrow.
@austin
Now that you cannot possibly lynch me, save your case against me for day 3, should we both live. Discuss what I've discussed here, and see if you agree. If your case against me had come a little bit later, (it was 5 minutes after the quote referenced above), I would have interpreted this as scum-motivated attempt, because it could have been an intentional disruption.
Your attack on me couldn't have been more badly timed, and your reasoning for giving up on voting for BKE would have even gotten my support if I had a clearer head about my initial thought on how stupid it would be for a watcher fakeclaim, if the odds are there is always a watcher.
You are thick, but I'm confident that I can defend myself against your arguments if you can be more objective and less narrative/judgemental with your cases.
@Hapa: I don't like how you ignored/didn't see this possibility. Also, you hopped on austin's poor arguments needlessly, as it was clearly not going to get anything done, and even questioned a distant post I had made. His case against me seemed genuine (but stupid), your decision to hop on it + not even considering this point I made about a BKE fakeclaim out of the blue, after having said that you thought I was a "confirmed townie" did not.
After cooling off and having thought more carefully about this, I feel very strongly about this point. Now that I have basically called everyone out, someone please confirm, as I am confident there is at least a townie vet:
Can we, with bloodyc0bbler's 100% certainty, assume that there necessarily is one, and just one watcher?? If not 100%, how likely is it?
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EPT
