EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XIII - Page 7
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 11 2012 00:23 Crossfire99 wrote: He posted less than an hour into the day and he makes a reference to a previous game. I don't know what happened in the previous game, but it seems like dahdum was mafia and Firmtofu wasn't and that the town lost (I infer this from his little >< face). It seems like he is complimenting dahdum's play and hopes they are on the same side. What's bad about that? As for his lynching lurkers stance, he was like one of the first posts, so no one really posted and it seems he was stating that we should wait to judge people until they posted. If people still lurked after a while then he seems to support lynching the lurkers. This isn't a terrible stance if I am interpreting him correctly, so I want clarification from him on this, though. Crossfire put it best. dahdum was in a game before this and I just commented on how I hope he isn't scum again because he played well last game. I didn't think I was acting suspicious at all, but apparently it was? Regardless, we should switch up our votes onto some more scummy targets. There are certain people that are playing very pro-town right now, but may be doing so just to gain the town's trust. It's extremely hard to tell from just Day 1 behavior, so I think our best for a lynch would be to hunt those people who are genuinely acting scummy or playing poorly. Anacletus seems like the perfect target to start. On May 10 2012 23:26 Anacletus wrote: I am only voting because I don't have much to add. I would also like to point out that *if* we hang tofu for his suspicious behavior and he is mafia then we can rule out those voting as being mafia, no? But if he's town, shit. This quote is suspicious, for reasons mentioned previously my numerous people. However, there is an interesting phrasing of words I find rather intriguing. See bold. What motive would anyone have to say that sentence. Is it not already a statement of fact? Why did he feel the need to reiterate something that is quite obvious to everyone that is playing: If we lynch Tofu and he's town, then we are in trouble. Well, no shit Sherlock. Generally when town people die, the mafia gets farther ahead. Here's my theory. Anacletus knows I am town, because I'm not on his mafia team. Therefore, he knows if and when I get lynched, I will flip town. That statement is guilt insurance and a scum tell because of it. He is trying to insure himself now so that later, he can say "Aw crap, well I was wrong, but look at my previous post where I admitted I might be wrong!" When town members vote people, they don't know whether they are right or wrong. When mafia vote people they know the exact alignment of the person they are voting. I believe this knowledge just leaked from Anacletus the mafia. ##vote:Anacletus | ||
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
On May 11 2012 03:56 FirmTofu wrote: What... I said that purely in jest, teasing him about the newbie game that just completed. I didn't think you guys would go batshit insane over it. Crossfire put it best. dahdum was in a game before this and I just commented on how I hope he isn't scum again because he played well last game. I didn't think I was acting suspicious at all, but apparently it was? Regardless, we should switch up our votes onto some more scummy targets. There are certain people that are playing very pro-town right now, but may be doing so just to gain the town's trust. It's extremely hard to tell from just Day 1 behavior, so I think our best for a lynch would be to hunt those people who are genuinely acting scummy or playing poorly. Anacletus seems like the perfect target to start. This quote is suspicious, for reasons mentioned previously my numerous people. However, there is an interesting phrasing of words I find rather intriguing. See bold. What motive would anyone have to say that sentence. Is it not already a statement of fact? Why did he feel the need to reiterate something that is quite obvious to everyone that is playing: If we lynch Tofu and he's town, then we are in trouble. Well, no shit Sherlock. Generally when town people die, the mafia gets farther ahead. Here's my theory. Anacletus knows I am town, because I'm not on his mafia team. Therefore, he knows if and when I get lynched, I will flip town. That statement is guilt insurance and a scum tell because of it. He is trying to insure himself now so that later, he can say "Aw crap, well I was wrong, but look at my previous post where I admitted I might be wrong!" When town members vote people, they don't know whether they are right or wrong. When mafia vote people they know the exact alignment of the person they are voting. I believe this knowledge just leaked from Anacletus the mafia. ##vote:Anacletus This post makes sense, Anacletus' play has been pretty wierd. I need to hear a response from him before I vote though. | ||
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
##vote Anacletus Please forgive my terrible punctuation and sentence structure in my previous post. I only got 3 hours of sleep last night. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
I think it already made clear my suspicions but just for the record I'll do it again: The below excerpts are all from Anacletus' filter: Before gamestart we have these posts: + Show Spoiler + Can't wait  Oh man, did this just became even more pertinent  ?Taking these I would assume that he is somebody who is eager to play this game. But as soon as the game starts there are no posts of him. Kind of odd if he was really that psyched to begin playing. Between day1-post and Anacletus first post are about 15 hours of time in which he did nothing. Even if we take different timezones and other committments (such as school/job/college) this seems to me as a long period of time in which a eager player did absolutely nothing. Continuing the analysis with his first post: ##Vote FirmTofu It is basically a naked vote-post without any reasoning behind it. Now adding his second post to it: + Show Spoiler + I am only voting because I don't have much to add. I would also like to point out that *if* we hang tofu for his suspicious behavior and he is mafia then we can rule out those voting as being mafia, no? But if he's town, shit. His reasoning is basically that he likes to jump onto the first slowly emerging bandwagon in the thread. Although there are "only" 2 votes on FirmTofu at the moment, it could easily turn into a quick and easy lynch-target if more people changed their minds about him (My thoughts on tofu are in my previous post) The second part of his post is a conclusion that all people who vote for FirmTofu are Town if FirmTofu flips Mafia. This conclusion is utter nonsense (at least in my opinion). There is nothing that prevents Mafia from voting each other if they believe it to be necessary. Furthermore the logic is flawed as going with it, everybody who votes in a mislynch on a townie must be mafia according to Anacletus. The point is simply that nobody is a confirmed townie until he flips. Anacletus' next post is a weird contradiction of his own logic. He states that he believes the following: + Show Spoiler + I doubt that the mafia would try to be hyper-aggressive day 1. I think that the people who aren't voting are suspicious. I think it makes more sense for the mafia to try and be passive in voting yet vocal in chat to try and rule who otherw vote for and keep their hands clean. In his opinion the following things are characteristic of scum: vocal, not voting and directing the discussion in a way they see fit. Now compare these to the filter of FirmTofu, which consists of exactly one post. He is neither vocal nor directing, the only fitting one is "not-voting". But considering it was one of the very first posts after the gamestart that is not all too surprising. His until now last post were a few sentences about metagaming, which are in no relation to the mounting pressure we have put on him. So he is actively avoiding to answer us, glaringly obvious by the fact that he has not tried to defend himself. This is really fishy. If he is a townie, he should defend himself, explain his thoughprocess and state his reasons why he believes FirmTofu to be a good Day1-Lynch instead of disappearing into lurker-state again as the pressure adds up. Concluding from these points I believe it to be really clear that Anacletus is contradicting himself as his actions are not following his words. This strikes me as a really scummy behaviour, especially if we also consider his sudden inactiveness after gamestart and after the accusations and suspicions on him started to add up. To me Anacletus is scum, who tried to push the developing pressure on FirmTofu into an unstoppable bandwagon for an easy mislynch on day1. Now that I have firmly established my point of view: ##Vote: Anacletus Anacletus seems to be clearly scum, which is helping us a lot. If we look at the setup of 13 players I would take the guess that we probably have 3 mafia (considering that the last newbie mafia game had 9 players with a 7/2-split). So who might be the other members? I had suspected Hyaach first and he remains hard to read. His later posts are better than his first as they are actually related to the current discussion. His vote on Anacletus seems reasonable as well given my argumentation above. Although it seems obvious why he is pressuring Anacletus a little bit of explanation of your reasoning would in my eyes go a long way to gain more credibility as a townie. His posts still lack analysis, length and depth, which makes him still kind of fishy. After my initial suspects Anacletus and Hyaach let's just go through the players as they are listed in the OP. BroodkingEXE: -Replied on a middleground on the matter of lynching lurkers, which is fine with me -First one to pressure FirmTofu -Unvoted Tofu as soon as he read the defense -Suspicious of Anacletus He seems to be pro-town as his play seems solid. Utilizing pressure to gain more information, but no one is confirmed town until he flips. So yeah, I am inclined to place him as townie but in Mafia you can never be certain. Mufaa: -Not a single post..... Guess he is either a hardcore-lurker, which makes him a scum-candidate, or just lost interest and will be modkilled at night/end of day1. Nothing more to say I guess. austinmcc: -Defends Tofu a bit -Pressures Anacletus He seems to be reasonable to me. Although he does not have too many posts, they seem well thought out and transparent. I would tend to read him as a townie, but as I said before nobody is confirmed townie until they flip. Jailbreaker: -2 Posts which do not have a lot of content -Got defensive after dahdum pressured him a bit -waiting for everyone to post before voting Hard to tell to be honest, but I would count him as a possible scum. Low amount of posting with close to 0 information/usefullness in them. Got defensive as soon as somebody pressured him a bit and the withholding of his vote before "everybody" had a chance to post seems fishy to me. Keep your eyes on him. Dahdum: -Makes the first post of the game -Pressures Tofu, then Jailbreaker before voting on FirmTofu Generally aggressive pressure style with his posts, compared to his playstyle in Newbie Mafia XII, it seems like a complete switch. Not sure what to make out of him yet. Darkfirex5: -slight pressure in his first and only post on BioSC No clue, I need more posts to make something out of him. But inactiveness after putting out a suspicion does not help in making him a townie. Crossfire99: -2 posts and first one quite a bit after the start of the game -Defends Tofu -Pressures Anacletus Solid posts from him thus far. The number of posts are a bit disappointing but that could be due to time restraints. I am inclined to put him on the townie side, but remember, no one is confirmed townie until he flips. FirmTofu: -2 posts, first is some small talk with almost no content -2nd post seems like a good defense against the accusations and some well-written pressure on Anacletus Seems to be a townie, but a rather inactive one. And because I am sick of reiterating myself again and again, NOICTUHF (No one is confirmed townie until he flips) unforgiven_ve: -2 posts until now, which do not tell us a lot. -Slightly suspicious of Anacletus Cannnot say much about him, as his posts were short and not very informative. BisoSC: -Suspcious of FirmTofu (not sure if he was serious about it) -defends the view that people should be allowed to post before we lynch inactive/lurker Nothing more to say, strikes me as a townie for now, but NOICTUHF. So in closing remarks of this rather long post, what are my suspicions? Scumteam: Anacletus, Mufaa, ???? (Could be any of us, but I am inclined to believe him out of the group of: Jailbreaker, Dahdum, hyaach, darkfirex5) If Mufaa gets modkilled I will have to get two people out of aforementioned group obviously. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
now correctly formatted | ||
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
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Hyaach
Singapore1737 Posts
Firstly, i was against the vote on FirmTofu because suspicion over his 'imho' casual remark was pretty funny. To me, there was actually nothing suspicious over that post but it indeed generated some discussion. BKE was asking for convincing left and right. BioSC was sitting neutral the whole time. Dahdum was pretty aggressive from the get go. So while we waited for his response, i tried to generated some other chatter by pointing out lurkers/inactives who have not yet posted. The first response by austinmcc seemed not too shabby to me not because he agreed with my method, but he actually showed that he bothered to catch up with the thread and give his input. The second response was a direct vote without any reasoning. (its like my first post; ready to jump the gun) that was enough reason for me to vote and i believe people caught up with the train and are now starting to pressure Anacletus | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On May 11 2012 04:33 BroodKingEXE wrote: WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH!!!! ShiaoPi are you defending Hyaach? A null read? He has provided zero evidence for his vote. Your whole list is terrible, it provides nothing more than a bunch "I'm leaning town, but you can never be sure reads". I smell a scumwagon. Where was I defending hyaach? I merely gave him the benefit of doubt. If you read carefully I said he remains fishy and I put him onto the list of suspected scum. If that is defending to you I can't help you. considering that we only have day1, there is not a lot you can read into. I just did my best and thought it might be a good idea to share my list with you for more input/discussion. And I do give sure reads. I am pretty sure Anacletus is scum, reread that paragraph again if you do not see it. I also point out some suspicious things with several players. Again considering the number of posts we have to do reads and the information we have until now, I do think that my list is not that bad. You are invited to proof me wrong. | ||
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Anacletus
United States733 Posts
I'm not mafia TT | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
In reference to your read on dahdum in Newbie XII, I remembered this quote from the postgame there: Yay! I was very active in the QT thread....the idea was to be sketchy enough to get Tofu to check & clear me, while avoiding an outright lynch. I'd agree that his playstyle is different in XIII, but I don't really want to try and read anyone's meta off of one newbie game. He IS posting more, but that could be anything out of: (a) being more comfortable, (b) being town and keeping activity in the thread and not QT, (c) having a different strategy for his play as scum. Now that we've got some more posts and activity, I'll take a look through filters this evening and try and actually post some cases. Still suspicious of Anacletus, but we've created quite the wagon for him here, and so for now I'm just going to leave him be until he responds to our concerns. I do like that we've started discussing the field as a whole, good to make sure we don't tunnel too hard on Anacletus so that we've got more reads to work off of and more pressure to get everyone active. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On May 11 2012 04:43 Anacletus wrote: Well, shit, I guess opting to lynch someone because several others were voting for them was silly. I'm not mafia TT Is that your defense? Seriously? BroodkingEXE if you believe me scum and starting a scumwagon, I would like to know the reasons how you came to that assumption. | ||
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Anacletus
United States733 Posts
On May 11 2012 04:46 ShiaoPi wrote: Is that your defense? Seriously? BroodkingEXE if you believe me scum and starting a scumwagon, I would like to know the reasons how you came to that assumption. Well, the way I figure it, if I try to defend myself too much I'll just draw more attention to myself. There really isn't any evidence on the board so I think that just not voicing my opinion until there's more evidence would be better. I'd just like to point out though that if I am hung, you will see that I am not mafia and you will probably want to go after those gunning for me..... Your justification for wanting to hang me is lacking evidence just as my claim. | ||
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BioSC
United States636 Posts
On May 10 2012 13:10 Darkfirex5 wrote: Well, might as well get started first game :3 I'm questioning why do you speak about town in third person as if you are speaking as if town isnt including yourself, so im asking why are you not using "we" and refering to town as a "they." Also you are justifying killing town just because they arent active, a vote helps even if they are a lurker, its another person who can still vote and help kill off all of the mafia. If you are going to put pressure on me, at least make it substantial/useful. If you are going to quote me, quote the whole post, not half of it and take it out of context. "They" is referring to lurking players, which I am not, thus I didn't use "we". This suspicion about "misused" pronouns is silly, and only drives me to wonder about you. You have only made one post so far, and wasn't very helpful. So far, the only lurkers here are you and Mufaa, whom has yet to post ANYTHING. Not enough to drive my vote to you, but I'm sure to keep an eye on your posts. | ||
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BioSC
United States636 Posts
On May 11 2012 04:50 Anacletus wrote: Well, the way I figure it, if I try to defend myself too much I'll just draw more attention to myself. There really isn't any evidence on the board so I think that just not voicing my opinion until there's more evidence would be better. I'd just like to point out though that if I am hung, you will see that I am not mafia and you will probably want to go after those gunning for me..... Your justification for wanting to hang me is lacking evidence just as my claim. Still, saying "Don't lynch me because I'm town" isn't that solid of a defense. We want to know why you voted for Tofu with no reason, then when you DID post a reason, it wasn't solid. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
I presented you the reasons why I am suspicious of your behaviour, what about trying to explain your thought-process? And for what kind of "evidence" are you waiting? I do not really understand the logic behind waiting for something to happen before defending yourself. The only thing which will give us any kind of evidence is a lynch, since that is still a bit away, I don't get your logic here. | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
Also, what does scumwagon mean? I am unfamiliar with the term and don't know what it means. | ||
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