[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 56

On January 24 2014 05:44 Foolishness wrote:

Right, and what I'm trying to say is that the timing does matter here. Sheeping a read with 10 minutes left in the day makes more sense because you're in a high pressure situation. I don't think WoS was in a high pressure situation even if he had to leave. Why not just vote for who he thinks is most scummy even if it's not Promethelax or myself? Would it seem odd to you if instead his last post was, "Foolishness lynch doesn't seem right, case on Promethelax is weak, I'm voting *insert random other player here* because he's not contributing, not active as usual, saying silly things, whatever"? No, that wouldn't be odd cause that would be a townie's mindset.

I'd have to go back and reread his filter to be sure, but from what I remember it seems like he was contributing a lot to the current lynch suspects but never bringing up suspects of his own.

On January 24 2014 05:48 Foolishness wrote:

If I'm mafia what is my game plan to win this game? That'd probably mean the other member was on the sandroba train and I'm hoping that he can cruise the next 4 lynches to victory. If my mafia buddy is in the pool of Toad, Kita, VE, WoS then we're pretty much screwed since they are already under suspicion and I can only survive so long and divert so many lynches before I get punished for it.

If one of you, austin, marvellosity, Promethelax, Hapa is mafia I'm pretty sure they will reveal themselves over time. Not tomorrow, maybe not even day three, but they will show it eventually. Off of long term behavior.

On January 24 2014 05:44 VisceraEyes wrote:

It's not complex, it's actually really really simple.

Foolishness, semi-lurker, is paired with sandroba, hard lurker and Promethelax, hard lurker. Foolish decides to try and get a wagon going on Promethelax, knowing that towns typically don't go for lurker lynches and crazy VE is voting for him too so meh. Town, unsurprisingly, votes for another lurker. Generally not a problem, but in this case it's the OTHER scum. So Promethelax has to come out of hard lurk and vote with town.

On January 24 2014 05:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
And it's just something I'm considering. All I know for sure is that I'm town and I THINK Prom scum. I could be convinced that scum actually wanted Foolishness lynched and abandoned ship.

On January 24 2014 05:58 gonzaw wrote:
So, are we all in the same page here that VE will only talk about Foo and Prome for the rest of the game?

Conspicuously absent is Holy, now hypnotoad a.k.a Toad, from his ramblings.

On January 24 2014 05:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
And it's just something I'm considering. All I know for sure is that I'm town and I THINK Prom scum. I could be convinced that scum actually wanted Foolishness lynched and abandoned ship.

On January 24 2014 06:01 kitaman27 wrote:


This is probably the best place to start with the voting analysis. With 50 minutes to go, the Foolishness vs Prom lynch is wide open. At this point, mafia has their choice of either player to flip.

In a town vs town scenario, mafia generally prefer to vote the player that is not going to flip. That gives them an excuse to push the same player the next cycle, rather than finding a new target to go after.

In town vs mafia, it can usually go two ways. A strong scum player will give their support to their scum buddy by voting the town candidate. From my experience, it is pretty rare to see a mafia player vote their own scum buddy in a close lynch early. A weaker scum player will generally wait until more town votes come in and there is a clearer picture of where the lynch is heading. They may decide to vote for their scum buddy later on if they think that is where the lynch is heading. If they can put their vote on an buddy that isn't going to flip, that's usually the preferred scenario.



Next, sandroba comes in with his vote on Prom. This actually makes me reconsider my red Prom read. If it's town vs town here, sandroba doesn't really care and Prom is town. If it's town Prom vs mafia Foolishness, then the vote makes sense. A mafia prom vs a town foolishness doesn't make much sense. It would be incredibly risky to tie the vote up at 3v3 and his little reward. Sure, Foolishness could flip and sandroba might look better, but at the expense of endangering his scum buddy when he could make it 4v2? If the bus is going on, then it must have been a last minute decision because there is little interaction between the two in the thread. Not much reward there either.

At this point, I also don't think the mafia team was thinking about a sandroba lynch. With 1/8 votes actually on Sandro, he knows he is going to get in trouble for showing up at the last minute, but I don't think mafia is in "lets bus sandroba" mode.



Prom returns to the thread and moves his vote over to Foolishness. I had an issue with this at the time, but on second thought I think it's fine as town or mafia. He has already shared suspicion of Foolishness earlier in the thread and his vote is going no where on myself. He doesn't seem to consider sandroba, but it's possible that he doesn't see that as an option yet.



Hapa joins Prom, Marv joins Foolishness. Not much to say here. Vote could still go either way.



I think this vote from Holy eliminates a Fool-Holy and Prom-Holy mafia team. As a player without any value for the mafia team due to replacement, unless a mafia Holy is 100% cut off from all communication with his scum team, I think he would vote to save a buddy, rather than abstain, even if he wasn't totally caught up.



At this point, it seems pretty likely that Foolishness is getting lynched with only 10 minutes left in the day.

The vote swap to sandroba comes in the following order: gonzaw, austin, marv, Hapa, Prom

I don't see this as a swap that was mafia driven. It's likely that they were caught off guard here. I have a strong town read on gonza/Hapa, and I'm thinking town Prom due to the reasoning above. marv I was suspicious of most of yesterday before the lynch, but he plays a strong role here and makes some good points throughout the later part of the cycle. Unless it's marv + foolishness (which seems unlikely), I'm leaning town on him as well.

I don't feel that I have a good grasp on austin. He does play a role in the lynch by getting on sandroba 2nd in the swap, but he seemed mostly willing to go with where the town lead him. If Hapa/marv went to Prom instead, it seems like he would have joined them. If there is a mafia in this group of 5, it seems like it would be him, but I need to think more about that.

Finally, we have Foolishness. Based on the way the votes went down, I'm struggling to see who the third scum buddy would be if he is mafia. I don't think he would be with Holy due to the reasons I mentioned earlier. Does VE or WoS really leave Foolishness out to dry by leaving the thread when he is in trouble? marv has too many interactions with him, unless they are trying to put on a show. Prom seems unlikely. gonzaw and Hapa look town, unless there is something I'm really overlooking. That really only lives Foolishness/sandroba/austin. I suppose that could be a possibility with austin being on the "anyone but Foolishness" side of things. It might also explain why austin was reluctant to vote prom when he seemed to be one of his preferred targets a bit before the swap since it would mean all three scum players would be on the same player, which could get ugly late game. I'm somewhat concerned with the fact that he doesn't seem to consider that I could be mafia at any point in the game. From my experience, I usually get called town by the mafia players, while town players are a bit more paranoid. sandroba and austin are also guilty of that this game. I'm probably still leaning town on him, though less so than others.

It seems to be that the individuals who were absent are the ones most likely to be mafia (VE, WoS, Holy), which seems to be where the town is leaning as well. I'm going to reread all three when I have the time.

On January 24 2014 06:08 kitaman27 wrote:


Maybe come back a bit later with a focus on who you would lynch, rather than defending yourself? Even if you can't avoid a lynch, if you flip green I'd think people would still look back and see who you made cases on.