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On January 24 2014 05:44 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 05:37 gonzaw wrote:@Foo: I'm not really going to put any attention on Prome or marv until way after some other dudes are dead. I just don't want to assume that kind of stuff in case I get paranoid later or something. Although meh fuck it I guess it doesn't hurt to consider those 4 "confirmed town", at least by the time D2 arrives.
About WOS:Well, I am the "direct" responsible for WOS's vote on D1, so I dunno if I can get anything meaningful out of it. Had I said "Vote sandro" he could have parked his vote on sandro. Then your story would be different Foo. I guess it's just something I'll likely ignore for now regarding WOS. For example: Then before voting for me says that my answers were "good enough" and that they "fit for a lack of a better term", and that it's my "early play that doesn't make sense to me". If my answers are fitting and good enough why are you voting for me? Couldn't you say this exact same thing about Prome's vote on sandro? Doesn't really think he's scum, but under pressure sheeps gonzaw into voting him. Couldn't WOS do the same thing? Not really think Foolishness is scum, but under pressure (he was apparently in a rush to leave), sheep gonzaw into voting him. The situations are so similar, that I don't know if I can critique one of them (WOS) without critiquing the other one (Prome). (of course not 100% similar, one was 5 minutes before lynch, but in the sense that I mentioned above they are kind of similar) Right, and what I'm trying to say is that the timing does matter here. Sheeping a read with 10 minutes left in the day makes more sense because you're in a high pressure situation. I don't think WoS was in a high pressure situation even if he had to leave. Why not just vote for who he thinks is most scummy even if it's not Promethelax or myself? Would it seem odd to you if instead his last post was, "Foolishness lynch doesn't seem right, case on Promethelax is weak, I'm voting *insert random other player here* because he's not contributing, not active as usual, saying silly things, whatever"? No, that wouldn't be odd cause that would be a townie's mindset. I'd have to go back and reread his filter to be sure, but from what I remember it seems like he was contributing a lot to the current lynch suspects but never bringing up suspects of his own.
Hmm, well Foo, I guess that may be a valid point you bring up, but it's not convincing, at least to me. Sure doesn't hurt to read his filter again, and hopefully get him to contribute over here (where he hasn't much since D1 ended).
I just think that specific thing isn't alignment-indicative. I've been in a similar situation before, swapping my vote between random dudes I didn't know if I wanted to lynch or not because I had to go somewhere else in 1 minute and wouldn't be back until deadline.
For instance, here, from Aperture Mafia 2 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174&user=gonzaw , particularly this post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=11#214 . I got called scum for it later in the game as well (I think). Time pressure can make you do scummy things.
Although perhaps his read on you kind of seemed weird. He did say "I feel comfortable leaving my vote here" before voting you, when it isn't really apparent how that comfort appeared.
On January 24 2014 05:48 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 05:42 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways, I don't really see scum Foo here just shutting down basically possibilities for his scumteam to win later. He straight up calls Prome and marv like confirmed town. He had every right in the world to keep tunneling them (like he did on D1), yet he makes sense and instantly backs off both of them, reducing the pool of suspects to 5 (Foo, Toad, VE, Kita, Holy), where there are 2 scum and we have 2 misslynches to spare.
That's scum suicide basically, unless he can be so sure he can win in that 5-people standoff.
And I mean, by "has every right in the world to keep tunneling them", I mean in the sense of what VE is doing here attacking Prome. I.e basically ignoring the fact Prome fluently participated in sandro's last-minute lynch and trying to nitpick other stuff and coming up with complex scenarios he's scum, etc.
Scum Foo would be all over that shit with both Prome and marv. Specially with marv.
I'll just assume he's town for now until we misslynch someone. If I'm mafia what is my game plan to win this game? That'd probably mean the other member was on the sandroba train and I'm hoping that he can cruise the next 4 lynches to victory. If my mafia buddy is in the pool of Toad, Kita, VE, WoS then we're pretty much screwed since they are already under suspicion and I can only survive so long and divert so many lynches before I get punished for it. If one of you, austin, marvellosity, Promethelax, Hapa is mafia I'm pretty sure they will reveal themselves over time. Not tomorrow, maybe not even day three, but they will show it eventually. Off of long term behavior.
Well, austin, marv, Prome and Hapa aren't scum. So definitely your scumbuddy would be in the Toad, Kita, VE, WOS pool. If you are scum, then yes, under those premises you just commited scum suicide. If you were scum, you'd act all aggressive scum Foo like you do and go all out against marv or even Prome. You'd ignore their sandro vote calling it "not alignment indicative, could be a bus" or some stuff, and keep pilling onto them.
And you would certainly not be so fucking calm like you are right now.
Anyways, so here's my proposal guys:
gonzaw
marv
Hapa
austin
Prome
Foolishness
These guys are untouchable for now. They only become touchable if we misslynch someone. If we keep lynching scum, then they keep being untouchable. If we do misslynch someone, it is proof we were wrong, thus we reconsider those guys (Foo in particular). But until then, talking shit about them and stuff will only clutter up the thread when we have other suspicious dudes to focus on.
Do people agree (bar VE)?
Can simplify things a lot. We could discuss leaving Foo in it or out of it if you want, but at least the other 5 do go.
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You're removing my opinion, but I'm town giving more power to scum. Just saying.
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So, are we all in the same page here that VE will only talk about Foo and Prome for the rest of the game?
Conspicuously absent is Holy, now hypnotoad a.k.a Toad, from his ramblings.
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On January 24 2014 05:44 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 05:28 Promethelax wrote:On January 24 2014 05:19 VisceraEyes wrote:On January 24 2014 05:18 gonzaw wrote:
I try not to be an asshole normally, but you are walking right into that shit VE I'm not walking into anything, I'm literally trying to have a conversation. You're being an asshole for no reason. I'm saying please stop. Now please stop. You are suggesting that the three leading votes candidates, all of whom strongly pushed each other are all scum together. And you are getting mad when people suggest that that assumption is anyone but silly. VE look, you aren't dumb, you aren't bad and you usually don't get caught up in conspiracy theories. What is it about this game. This time. That leads you to going for the most complex solution to the problem? Why is Kita off the table when a few minutes ago you said kita's use of the town pairs thing made him scum. Why are fool and I scum together? Why is either of us scum individually? I just don't understand what your thought process is at all this game dude. And generally I'm there with you but here I'm not at all. It's not complex, it's actually really really simple. Foolishness, semi-lurker, is paired with sandroba, hard lurker and Promethelax, hard lurker. Foolish decides to try and get a wagon going on Promethelax, knowing that towns typically don't go for lurker lynches and crazy VE is voting for him too so meh. Town, unsurprisingly, votes for another lurker. Generally not a problem, but in this case it's the OTHER scum. So Promethelax has to come out of hard lurk and vote with town.
I just don't see it. This is so not the reasonable conclusion to come to from this day one. I can't balance out VE being not dumb and ve believing this. I get that you'd consider it because paranoia happens to all of us and I've considered a lot of weird stuff this game, I just don't that this theory is the one you think is most likely and most worth pushing. You've been convinced since early day one that I am scum and haven't updated that read at all through the game, it isn't evolving instead you are working a crazy conspiracy theory to make sense of me still being scum after essentially being the hammer on a scum lynch,
So VE why is this the most likely situation for you? Why am I more scum than fool? Why was Kita mentioned but dropped?
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On January 24 2014 05:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
And it's just something I'm considering. All I know for sure is that I'm town and I THINK Prom scum. I could be convinced that scum actually wanted Foolishness lynched and abandoned ship.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Foolishness (3): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow
Promethelax (2): Foolishness, Kitaman27
Kitaman27 (1): Promethelax
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
This is probably the best place to start with the voting analysis. With 50 minutes to go, the Foolishness vs Prom lynch is wide open. At this point, mafia has their choice of either player to flip.
In a town vs town scenario, mafia generally prefer to vote the player that is not going to flip. That gives them an excuse to push the same player the next cycle, rather than finding a new target to go after.
In town vs mafia, it can usually go two ways. A strong scum player will give their support to their scum buddy by voting the town candidate. From my experience, it is pretty rare to see a mafia player vote their own scum buddy in a close lynch early. A weaker scum player will generally wait until more town votes come in and there is a clearer picture of where the lynch is heading. They may decide to vote for their scum buddy later on if they think that is where the lynch is heading. If they can put their vote on an buddy that isn't going to flip, that's usually the preferred scenario.
Foolishness (3): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow
Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba
Kitaman27 (1): Promethelax
Sandroba (1): marvellosity,
Next, sandroba comes in with his vote on Prom. This actually makes me reconsider my red Prom read. If it's town vs town here, sandroba doesn't really care and Prom is town. If it's town Prom vs mafia Foolishness, then the vote makes sense. A mafia prom vs a town foolishness doesn't make much sense. It would be incredibly risky to tie the vote up at 3v3 and his little reward. Sure, Foolishness could flip and sandroba might look better, but at the expense of endangering his scum buddy when he could make it 4v2? If the bus is going on, then it must have been a last minute decision because there is little interaction between the two in the thread. Not much reward there either.
At this point, I also don't think the mafia team was thinking about a sandroba lynch. With 1/8 votes actually on Sandro, he knows he is going to get in trouble for showing up at the last minute, but I don't think mafia is in "lets bus sandroba" mode.
Foolishness (4): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax
Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
Prom returns to the thread and moves his vote over to Foolishness. I had an issue with this at the time, but on second thought I think it's fine as town or mafia. He has already shared suspicion of Foolishness earlier in the thread and his vote is going no where on myself. He doesn't seem to consider sandroba, but it's possible that he doesn't see that as an option yet.
Foolishness (5): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity
Promethelax (4): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba, Hapahauli
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
Hapa joins Prom, Marv joins Foolishness. Not much to say here. Vote could still go either way.
Foolishness (5): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity
Promethelax (4): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba, Hapahauli
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
gonzaw (1): HolyFlare
I think this vote from Holy eliminates a Fool-Holy and Prom-Holy mafia team. As a player without any value for the mafia team due to replacement, unless a mafia Holy is 100% cut off from all communication with his scum team, I think he would vote to save a buddy, rather than abstain, even if he wasn't totally caught up.
Foolishness (6): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity, Hapahauli
Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
gonzaw (1): HolyFlare
At this point, it seems pretty likely that Foolishness is getting lynched with only 10 minutes left in the day.
The vote swap to sandroba comes in the following order: gonzaw, austin, marv, Hapa, Prom
I don't see this as a swap that was mafia driven. It's likely that they were caught off guard here. I have a strong town read on gonza/Hapa, and I'm thinking town Prom due to the reasoning above. marv I was suspicious of most of yesterday before the lynch, but he plays a strong role here and makes some good points throughout the later part of the cycle. Unless it's marv + foolishness (which seems unlikely), I'm leaning town on him as well.
I don't feel that I have a good grasp on austin. He does play a role in the lynch by getting on sandroba 2nd in the swap, but he seemed mostly willing to go with where the town lead him. If Hapa/marv went to Prom instead, it seems like he would have joined them. If there is a mafia in this group of 5, it seems like it would be him, but I need to think more about that.
Finally, we have Foolishness. Based on the way the votes went down, I'm struggling to see who the third scum buddy would be if he is mafia. I don't think he would be with Holy due to the reasons I mentioned earlier. Does VE or WoS really leave Foolishness out to dry by leaving the thread when he is in trouble? marv has too many interactions with him, unless they are trying to put on a show. Prom seems unlikely. gonzaw and Hapa look town, unless there is something I'm really overlooking. That really only lives Foolishness/sandroba/austin. I suppose that could be a possibility with austin being on the "anyone but Foolishness" side of things. It might also explain why austin was reluctant to vote prom when he seemed to be one of his preferred targets a bit before the swap since it would mean all three scum players would be on the same player, which could get ugly late game. I'm somewhat concerned with the fact that he doesn't seem to consider that I could be mafia at any point in the game. From my experience, I usually get called town by the mafia players, while town players are a bit more paranoid. sandroba and austin are also guilty of that this game. I'm probably still leaning town on him, though less so than others.
It seems to be that the individuals who were absent are the ones most likely to be mafia (VE, WoS, Holy), which seems to be where the town is leaning as well. I'm going to reread all three when I have the time.
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On January 24 2014 05:58 gonzaw wrote:
So, are we all in the same page here that VE will only talk about Foo and Prome for the rest of the game?
Conspicuously absent is Holy, now hypnotoad a.k.a Toad, from his ramblings.
No, I won't. That's just what's on the mind right now because we have been arguing about it, so it's what I've looked into most recently. Gonzaw this is getting really really irritating.
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On January 24 2014 06:00 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 05:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
And it's just something I'm considering. All I know for sure is that I'm town and I THINK Prom scum. I could be convinced that scum actually wanted Foolishness lynched and abandoned ship.
I saw that but it doesn't answer my question. I don't see how you are convinced that I'm scum still and I don't see what that post was supposed to clarify in regards to my post.
I'm talking to you as reasonably as I can but you just aren't listening or participating. Help me here.
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It's fine, I'm done with this game. Honestly people are too tunneled in and there's literally nothing I can do. When I try and participate it is shat on, when I try and have conversations with people it's scum claiming, I have literally no will left to play this game.
Sorry austin, you didn't make it.
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No VE, YOU've been arguing about it.
I completely ignored it in one post, yet you keep babbling and babbling about it.
On January 24 2014 05:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
And it's just something I'm considering. All I know for sure is that I'm town and I THINK Prom scum. I could be convinced that scum actually wanted Foolishness lynched and abandoned ship.
This phrase is weird as fuck as well. "All I know for sure is that I'm town and I THINK Prom scum", for what purpose do you post this? Seems so out of place.
"I could be convinced that scum actually wanted Foo lynched and abandoned ship". You "could be convinced". Again so out of place. You want us to convince you scum wanted Foo lynch?
Well, I can convince you Foo is town. You can just read those posts I made above which you keep ignoring (you seem to keep ignoring Foo's posts this N1).
This attempt of yours seems "too obvious" VE. But I guess I'll just have to assume it's a last attempt at misdirection and getting us to argue with you and stuff.
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Kita: do scum slips exist?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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So why aren't you a part of town?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 24 2014 06:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
It's fine, I'm done with this game. Honestly people are too tunneled in and there's literally nothing I can do. When I try and participate it is shat on, when I try and have conversations with people it's scum claiming, I have literally no will left to play this game.
Sorry austin, you didn't make it.
Maybe come back a bit later with a focus on who you would lynch, rather than defending yourself? Even if you can't avoid a lynch, if you flip green I'd think people would still look back and see who you made cases on.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 24 2014 06:07 Promethelax wrote:
So why aren't you a part of town?
Hmm?
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On January 24 2014 06:01 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +
Foolishness (3): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow
Promethelax (2): Foolishness, Kitaman27
Kitaman27 (1): Promethelax
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
This is probably the best place to start with the voting analysis. With 50 minutes to go, the Foolishness vs Prom lynch is wide open. At this point, mafia has their choice of either player to flip. In a town vs town scenario, mafia generally prefer to vote the player that is not going to flip. That gives them an excuse to push the same player the next cycle, rather than finding a new target to go after. In town vs mafia, it can usually go two ways. A strong scum player will give their support to their scum buddy by voting the town candidate. From my experience, it is pretty rare to see a mafia player vote their own scum buddy in a close lynch early. A weaker scum player will generally wait until more town votes come in and there is a clearer picture of where the lynch is heading. They may decide to vote for their scum buddy later on if they think that is where the lynch is heading. If they can put their vote on an buddy that isn't going to flip, that's usually the preferred scenario. Show nested quote +Foolishness (3): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow
Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba
Kitaman27 (1): Promethelax
Sandroba (1): marvellosity, Next, sandroba comes in with his vote on Prom. This actually makes me reconsider my red Prom read. If it's town vs town here, sandroba doesn't really care and Prom is town. If it's town Prom vs mafia Foolishness, then the vote makes sense. A mafia prom vs a town foolishness doesn't make much sense. It would be incredibly risky to tie the vote up at 3v3 and his little reward. Sure, Foolishness could flip and sandroba might look better, but at the expense of endangering his scum buddy when he could make it 4v2? If the bus is going on, then it must have been a last minute decision because there is little interaction between the two in the thread. Not much reward there either. At this point, I also don't think the mafia team was thinking about a sandroba lynch. With 1/8 votes actually on Sandro, he knows he is going to get in trouble for showing up at the last minute, but I don't think mafia is in "lets bus sandroba" mode. Show nested quote +Foolishness (4): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax
Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba
Sandroba (1): marvellosity Prom returns to the thread and moves his vote over to Foolishness. I had an issue with this at the time, but on second thought I think it's fine as town or mafia. He has already shared suspicion of Foolishness earlier in the thread and his vote is going no where on myself. He doesn't seem to consider sandroba, but it's possible that he doesn't see that as an option yet. Show nested quote +Foolishness (5): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity
Promethelax (4): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba, Hapahauli
Sandroba (1): marvellosity Hapa joins Prom, Marv joins Foolishness. Not much to say here. Vote could still go either way. Show nested quote +Foolishness (5): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity
Promethelax (4): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba, Hapahauli
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
gonzaw (1): HolyFlare I think this vote from Holy eliminates a Fool-Holy and Prom-Holy mafia team. As a player without any value for the mafia team due to replacement, unless a mafia Holy is 100% cut off from all communication with his scum team, I think he would vote to save a buddy, rather than abstain, even if he wasn't totally caught up. Show nested quote +Foolishness (6): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity, Hapahauli
Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
gonzaw (1): HolyFlare At this point, it seems pretty likely that Foolishness is getting lynched with only 10 minutes left in the day. The vote swap to sandroba comes in the following order: gonzaw, austin, marv, Hapa, Prom I don't see this as a swap that was mafia driven. It's likely that they were caught off guard here. I have a strong town read on gonza/Hapa, and I'm thinking town Prom due to the reasoning above. marv I was suspicious of most of yesterday before the lynch, but he plays a strong role here and makes some good points throughout the later part of the cycle. Unless it's marv + foolishness (which seems unlikely), I'm leaning town on him as well. I don't feel that I have a good grasp on austin. He does play a role in the lynch by getting on sandroba 2nd in the swap, but he seemed mostly willing to go with where the town lead him. If Hapa/marv went to Prom instead, it seems like he would have joined them. If there is a mafia in this group of 5, it seems like it would be him, but I need to think more about that. Finally, we have Foolishness. Based on the way the votes went down, I'm struggling to see who the third scum buddy would be if he is mafia. I don't think he would be with Holy due to the reasons I mentioned earlier. Does VE or WoS really leave Foolishness out to dry by leaving the thread when he is in trouble? marv has too many interactions with him, unless they are trying to put on a show. Prom seems unlikely. gonzaw and Hapa look town, unless there is something I'm really overlooking. That really only lives Foolishness/sandroba/austin. I suppose that could be a possibility with austin being on the "anyone but Foolishness" side of things. It might also explain why austin was reluctant to vote prom when he seemed to be one of his preferred targets a bit before the swap since it would mean all three scum players would be on the same player, which could get ugly late game. I'm somewhat concerned with the fact that he doesn't seem to consider that I could be mafia at any point in the game. From my experience, I usually get called town by the mafia players, while town players are a bit more paranoid. sandroba and austin are also guilty of that this game. I'm probably still leaning town on him, though less so than others. It seems to be that the individuals who were absent are the ones most likely to be mafia (VE, WoS, Holy), which seems to be where the town is leaning as well. I'm going to reread all three when I have the time.
Town is heading as well as Kita. That means Kita is not a member of town. No?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Heh suppose thread makes more sense there.
Scum slips exist, but that is not one of them 
Any thoughts on the actual post?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 24 2014 05:57 gonzaw wrote:
These guys are untouchable for now. They only become touchable if we misslynch someone. If we keep lynching scum, then they keep being untouchable. If we do misslynch someone, it is proof we were wrong, thus we reconsider those guys (Foo in particular). But until then, talking shit about them and stuff will only clutter up the thread when we have other suspicious dudes to focus on.
Do people agree (bar VE)?
Can simplify things a lot. We could discuss leaving Foo in it or out of it if you want, but at least the other 5 do go.
I probably wouldn't include the pair in the day 2 lynch discussion, but do you think Foolishness/austin is a viable pair or is there something that would eliminate these two as a team that makes sense?
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On January 24 2014 06:08 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 06:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
It's fine, I'm done with this game. Honestly people are too tunneled in and there's literally nothing I can do. When I try and participate it is shat on, when I try and have conversations with people it's scum claiming, I have literally no will left to play this game.
Sorry austin, you didn't make it. Maybe come back a bit later with a focus on who you would lynch, rather than defending yourself? Even if you can't avoid a lynch, if you flip green I'd think people would still look back and see who you made cases on.
If VE is town, then yes this is absolutely what he must do.
But VE, you MUST stop talking about that insane conspiracy theory of yours. You won't gain any friends by still talking about it and not addressing very important issues regarding the actual players you think are scum (Prome with his sandro vote, Foo with stuff lots of people have said, including me and kita above).
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Oh I generally like and agree with the analysis, I agree with Austin being the one on the lynch I'm not confident in (I mentioned this drunk last night, not sure if that was clear, Marv is less town than others for the lynch as well).
I agree that scum is probably within the non sand voters as the way that lynch went down was classic last minute town shennanies.
I hadn't thought about Austin being unwilling to switch due to all scum voting the same and I actually found that to be interesting and rather useful as an insight. In all that was a strong post which I found myself agreeing with and mostly found it made you townier.
If I was to lynch three players right now it would be WoS toad and VE. There is at least one if not two scum on that list. Holy did say something in the early game which looked really townie to me, can't think of what it was though, but besides that one moment he has seemed scummy as hell and his slot simply isn't helping anything.
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EPT
