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Aperture Mafia 2: Portal Edition - Page 52

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 01:59 GMT
#1021
On October 07 2012 10:48 Keirathi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2012 09:58 Drazerk wrote:
Sure Kei and then you lose because S+B was scum

If S&B is scum at this point, I'll fucking eat my hat. And post pictures of it.


Hmm, we can have a way of proving if he's scum I think

To S&B:

Hmm, I had an interesting thought: What if right before the deadline, you claim who you are targeting?

Because the paranoid thought of you being scum has crossed my head after what Keirathi said (that as scum you'd be convinced P-Body was town and would vouch for you), so I just want to make sure.

I'm proposing this for this reason:
If you are scum telling lies....you still don't know what the other scumteam will do. If you are BS the RS have factional KP, if you are RS you don't know if BS will use a KP that night or not. If you claim you save someone, and that person dies, you are certainly lying and are scum. If you are scum and didn't claim right before the deadline, after that person dies you can always claim you saved another one.

May work, may not work, but I don't see the harm in doing it.
Another way of doing this is having Keirathi claim who he's targeting right before the deadline. Same principle applies, if he claims he targeted someone and that player dies, then S&B was lying and didn't actually save that guy.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
October 07 2012 02:02 GMT
#1022
@keirathi: If you're refering to your posts that are trying to link me and XFire over me thinking he was buddying me, me deciding that he wasn't buddying me, and me responding sarcastically to that, yes I have, and I think it's kind of ridiculous to link me based on that.

Your theory based on me wanting to get S+B lynched over Nisani, assuming that I thought S+B was actually RS at the time is slightly better, from my point of view, but wrong. Town credit would be less useful than keeping the other scum faction alive in that scenario. At that point in the game, the town didn't know that there was a second scum faction. But eliminating the RS too fast, the BS would be at a disadvantage. Unless they had a lot of stored KP or something, and could just nuke the town to victory. It's a possibility, but unlikely. Given what's happened in the game, I would argue that as BS, it would be in my best interest to lynch town in that situation.

As far as reads, I'm not happy about it, but I think that you and S+B are town. If you both are scum, I'll give you guys the win for outing yourselves that way. My hat to you.

I buy Draz's claim for the time being. He's nuts, for sure, but his claim makes sense in a Draz-ish sort of way.

JH has been kind of worthless all game. I'm too lazy to really look into him at the moment, but he's giving off so BS vibes. I doubt anyone would listen, so I would rather focus my energies on the group that I will present next.

BELIEVING THIS TO BE TRUE, that means that there are two red scum and one black scum in the following group:
  • Mattchew
  • austinmcc
  • HiroPro
  • gonzaw

HiroPro has been pretty much useless all game long. I'll give him BS status for the time being.

Looking back at the voting patterns, mattchew was the primary mover behind the IMP lynch, which means that he has to be either BS or town. Since I think HP is BS, that means that mattchew has to be town, which only leaves austinmcc and mattchew remaining.

tl;dr
  • keirathi, s+b, drazerk, mattchew, ghost
  • jinglehell, hiropro
  • austinmcc, gonzaw
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 02:07 GMT
#1023
You think there are 3 scum from each faction? Any evidence towards that?
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
October 07 2012 02:09 GMT
#1024
Isn't that the same setup as liar game? And is that seriously the only thing that you took away from that post?
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
October 07 2012 02:10 GMT
#1025
rofl 6 mafia. try again ghost. try again.
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
October 07 2012 02:10 GMT
#1026
liar game had like 18 players.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 02:11 GMT
#1027
Yes because it's the greatest assumption you have there and everything falls apart if you take it away (except thinking Drazerk is town maybe)

Liar Game also had 12 townies. 12-3-3.
You are suggesting it's 6-3-3 in this game.
Keirathi
Profile Joined May 2012
United States4679 Posts
October 07 2012 02:13 GMT
#1028
@gonzaw:

That plan literally makes 0 sense whatsoever.

IF he is scum (god, how many times do I have to give reasons that he's not? maybe I should just get flipped...), then of course he's going to tell you he's targetting X, while in reality he's shooting Y. The chance of overlap is pretty small, especially considering we've only been having 1 KP each night. Your chance of catching him as scum with that plan is remarkably tiny.

And, assuming he's town (because he is town), what if there *IS* overlap and 2 KP go through to the person he targetted and therefor dies? You just "confirmed" scum on a townie (ironically at the same % chance of having caught him as scum if he is scum).
My dear friend if I have gone pants on head, you have gone socks on ears!!! -ShiaoPi
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
October 07 2012 02:13 GMT
#1029
Eights look like threes when you're hungry.

Still think Gonzaw is scum.

I'm going to finish up my analysis of Gonzaw's voting Day 1, then eat dinner. brb
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 02:16 GMT
#1030
I'd propose a role name massclaim to try and make sense of the Cave Johnson thing....but meh I'm not sure if it'd do any good (as far as I know, only the player list is important for scum/town roles, not role names).

If other people agree I can claim mine first. We can see irregularities in fake-claims that way
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 02:17 GMT
#1031
On October 07 2012 11:13 Keirathi wrote:
@gonzaw:

That plan literally makes 0 sense whatsoever.

IF he is scum (god, how many times do I have to give reasons that he's not? maybe I should just get flipped...), then of course he's going to tell you he's targetting X, while in reality he's shooting Y. The chance of overlap is pretty small, especially considering we've only been having 1 KP each night. Your chance of catching him as scum with that plan is remarkably tiny.

And, assuming he's town (because he is town), what if there *IS* overlap and 2 KP go through to the person he targetted and therefor dies? You just "confirmed" scum on a townie (ironically at the same % chance of having caught him as scum if he is scum).


If he's scum, he says he's targeting X but shoots Y, and the other scum shoots X....he's fucked.
If there is overlap and 2 KP go through and he dies...he flips town...so what's the problem?
Keirathi
Profile Joined May 2012
United States4679 Posts
October 07 2012 02:21 GMT
#1032
On October 07 2012 11:17 gonzaw wrote:
If he's scum, he says he's targeting X but shoots Y, and the other scum shoots X....he's fucked.

I'm saying there's a pretty small chance that he would say he was protecting an X that is going to be killed by the other scum team.

On October 07 2012 11:17 gonzaw wrote:
If there is overlap and 2 KP go through and he dies...he flips town...so what's the problem?

Wait, does S&B die? If so, I guess that makes sense. I was just thinking "Herp Derp I'm a 1KP medic and I just got lynched because scum double stacked KP on the target I called out and 'confirmed' me as lying."
My dear friend if I have gone pants on head, you have gone socks on ears!!! -ShiaoPi
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 02:27 GMT
#1033
I know the probabilities make it seem like it won't work (if he's scum). But if it doesn't hinder town in any way I don't see why we can't do it, it's just claiming a target right before the deadline instead of doing it the next day, you are going to do it anyways (well...he didn't claim his target today for some reason).

It's not worth it having an endless argument about it though.

Keirathi: You still convinced Draz is scum? Even after his Cave Johnson claim (which apparently happened on D2) and all that shit I said.
If you don't like setup speculation fine, just answer "yes".
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
October 07 2012 02:29 GMT
#1034
It's amazing how short our collective memories are as a town.

What's the important thing that happened the first day? We lynched scum. Not only did we lynch scum, we lynched the mafia godfather JOAT. That's a hell of a catch on our part: there's no reason for the scum to bandwagon such a powerful player on Day 1.

So what was the sequence of events that lead up to the lynching of our dearly departed friend iamperfection?



First person to vote IMP is gonzaw. Linky. Why?
+ Show Spoiler +
Anyways, the people that I'm actually interested in seemed to have disappeared. Oh well.
Anyways.....tomorrow I have a test, then I have to go to uni so I won't be home in nearly all day, so I don't know if I'll be around for the deadline (don't really know when it is).

Just in case I miss it I'll make a placeholder vote on iamperfection:

##Vote: iamperfection
No good reason. He's as good as any lynch, I guess.

Next guy to vote IMP is Mementoss. He comes into the thread, and does a quick analysis based on the meta of IMP, and decides to vote him accordingly. Linky

Next page, IMP posts, and gonzaw quickly rebuttals his post, kind of funny since gonzaw thinks he's scum.

Then, out of nowhere, Gonzaw retracts his vote. He gives as much reason for the retraction as he does for his first vote. Apparently, the fact that I remind IMP of Palmar from Rockband is enough of a reason for Gonzaw to know that he's not scum anymore, and push JH. linky

Then, mattchew rides in on his golden stallion: linky. He gives some actual analysis, and it's off to the races.

Of note: austinmcc explicitly says he's not voting IMP.

HiroPro comes in and makes it three votes on IMP. linky

Finally, XFire makes it four votes for the lynch of IMP. linky



Ghost, you're a blubbering mad man.

You're probably right, and I don't care. I think that Gonzaw pushed his scum buddy Day 1 when he made a crappy vote, pulled his vote after it started gaining traction, then abandoned thread when it started to look like his scum buddy going down. It makes sense, it's not a bad move to make as scum.

When you combine that with the fact that Gonzaw has spent most of the thread mudslinging and whining instead of scumhunting, and the fact that he's frequently and repeated suggested and pushed massclaims when we really don't know anything about the game setup, I think it all points to scum.

Unfortunately, I'm too lazy/hungry to post all of that stuff.

##vote gonzaw
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
October 07 2012 02:30 GMT
#1035
Oh, and there's that stuff with his new plan to tell scum who the medic is protecting right before the deadline. Yeah, that's a pro-town plan. If the medic targets town, scum can kill the confirmed town. If the medic targets the confirmed town, scum can have their way with whoever they think would look best dead. Great plan there, buddy.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
October 07 2012 02:31 GMT
#1036
Now, to the kitchen!
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
October 07 2012 03:09 GMT
#1037
On October 07 2012 11:30 ghost_403 wrote:
Oh, and there's that stuff with his new plan to tell scum who the medic is protecting right before the deadline. Yeah, that's a pro-town plan. If the medic targets town, scum can kill the confirmed town. If the medic targets the confirmed town, scum can have their way with whoever they think would look best dead. Great plan there, buddy.


who is confirmed town?

i don't think we have any
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 03:19 GMT
#1038
ghosty
You're probably right, and I don't care. I think that Gonzaw pushed his scum buddy Day 1 when he made a crappy vote, pulled his vote after it started gaining traction, then abandoned thread when it started to look like his scum buddy going down. It makes sense, it's not a bad move to make as scum.


Refer to these please:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174&currentpage=40#784
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174&currentpage=40#800

Specially the "momentum" part. Am I lying or not about that? Please read that part of the thread (it's less than 1 page anyways) and tell me if I'm wrong or not.

When you combine that with the fact that Gonzaw has spent most of the thread mudslinging and whining


This may be true at times, specially when I get frustrated, for instance about Jingle or about having wrong reads or not solid ones.

instead of scumhunting


Now this is baseless conjecture.
Prove I didn't scumhunt this game.

, and the fact that he's frequently and repeated suggested and pushed massclaims when we really don't know anything about the game setup.


That's the point of having people claim: understand the setup. Although I don't remember pushing massclaims but rather claims from specific people, like S&B, P-body, Drazerk and you (and the role names).


On October 07 2012 11:30 ghost_403 wrote:
Oh, and there's that stuff with his new plan to tell scum who the medic is protecting right before the deadline. Yeah, that's a pro-town plan. If the medic targets town, scum can kill the confirmed town. If the medic targets the confirmed town, scum can have their way with whoever they think would look best dead. Great plan there, buddy.


Do you know what "right before deadline" means?


Ghost...there's something you haven't answered yet:

On October 02 2012 05:36 ghost_403 wrote:
Something's off about austin's play this game. I dunno what. I can't put my finger on it, and I have no idea why. I think I'm going to read a few of his previous games.

I'm still happy trying to lynch Keirathi today. After his initial case on Mattchew, he's done more or less no analysis this game. If looking through austin's previous games doesn't yield anything interesting, I might spend a bit more time staring at Keirathi's filter and write up my thoughts on it.

IMP doesn't read like scum to me at a moment. I didn't see anything substantial in the cases presented in the thread to change my mind on that at the moment.


Okay, you mention IMP doesn't read like scum to you....but what about what IMP did? You know, voting you? Why did you ignore it nor acknowledged it nor defended yourself?

Also this:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174&currentpage=42#839

What was the purpose of this post? Why did you come out of hiding to just accuse that post of mine?
Not only that....why did you do it so poorly? Like really, it seems obvious. Here I'll spoiler it to you since I'm sure you'll ask why it's "poor":

+ Show Spoiler +
There are reasons why unclaimed shots might have been from someone in the town. For example, Lord Kanti's KP from Aperture Mafia. Based on the flips that have already occured this game, I don't think that it's irrational to assume that a role with KP doesn't have some other stuff associated with it. The fact that Draz didn't immediately claim his shot doesn't imply that he's scum.


Drazerk claimed that KP and nobody cc'ed, so it at least proves Drazerk shot him


Let's go about it logically:

P1)S&B got shot only once
P2)Drazerk claimed he shot S&B
P3)Nobody counterclaimed Drazerk
P4)If someone claims an unique action, and another townie did that action, then that townie cc's the original claimer.
P5)If someone claims an unique action, and no townie cc's him, then that player either did that unique action or he's scum and a scumbuddy of his did it.
P6)If a scumbuddy of yours shoots someone, it still counts as if you shot him (since you are part of that scum team).

T1)Because of (P1), shooting S&B is an unique action
T2)Because of (T1) and (P4): If someone claims he shot S&B, and another townie did so, that townie cc's the guy that claims he shot S&B
T3)Because of (T2) and (P2): If another townie shot S&B, that townie cc's Drazerk
T4)Because of (T3) and (P4): No townie shot S&B
T5)Because of (T1),(P2),(T4) and (P5): Drazerk either shot S&B or is scum and his scumbuddy did it
T)Because of (T5) and (P6): Drazerk shot S&B

This doesn't take into account maybe someone from another faction shooting S&B and Drazerk claiming the shot himself and the other faction scum not claiming; but that's unlikely as well...and we didn't know there was a 2nd scum faction at that time.

Also you may doubt (P1) but I can prove it to you:

(P0)S&B is town
(P'1)S&B got shot
(P'2)If someone is town and is shot, he claims all the times he's shot and all the details
(P'3)If S&B gets shot more than once he dies (optional)
(P'4)S&B was alive on D2
(P'5)S&B claimed he got shot once

(T'1)Because of (P0) and (P'1): S&B claimed all the times he's shot and all the details
(T'2)Because of (T'1) and (P'5): S&B got shot once.

(T'3)Because of (P'3) and (P'4): S&B didn't get shot more than once
(T'4)Because of (T'3) and (P'1): S&B got shot once

Damn syllogisms are fun

Also, your conclusion there is kind of irrelevant. My conclusion was that Drazerk shot S&B
You never mention that that conclusion is wrong, you just spout things like "unaccounted KP can be made from town" (I'll give it to you that that you may be right about that part of my post, but it was just a transitional thought I had) and "The fact that Draz didn't immediately claim his shot doesn't imply that he's scum." which again is irrelevant to the conclusion I made. I don't ever mention at all in that post that Draz is scum for not claiming his shot beforehand (that's something I pressure him about in other posts, previous ones I think).


In the event of a busdriver, 98% of the time, the person performing the action isn't notified of a bussing. Therefore, Draz would not know that he had bussed, and wouldn't have known to claim that he shot S+B


No townie claimed the shot, it's natural that if this happened he would have figured out he was bussed. After nobody claims the shot nor the bus after he claims, he's sure he was the one that shot him.

Also again, if he claims he shot S&B, and a town bus driver drove S&B and Draz' original target, the town driver would have known something is fishy since Draz' original target didn't claim the shot. Unless he drove Mementos. Even then he would know something is weird since it means someone shot Mementos. Even then the bus driver doesn't even matter since it means 1 guy shot S&B and 1 guy shot mementos.

And why on earth are you implying that there's a town busdriver to begin with? Why do you keep fishing for blues?


I'm not implying there's a town busdriver I'm only taking into account the possibility. Also that's not fishing for blues.

As town, you should know better than to spout off stuff like this. You would have taken a step back and realized that this post doesn't accomplish anything other than create more chaos while people discuss why you are completely wrong. Town gonzaw is better than this.


I'm logically proving Drazerk did shot S&B so people stop speculating about Drazerk not shooting him (Keirathi did at one point say that he didn't like speculating since maybe some weird thing happened or some shit).

That's the opposite of chaos cupcake. I'm giving people real, unaltered and trusty information.

Town gonzaw is better than this.


Now this is where I got weirded out. Everybody knows I do this as town; any townie that already played with me would know. You played with me several times when I was town, at least I remember the original Aperture (I think you were there).
Even if you don't know what I do as town, you can't assume that you do and be wrong about it. Specially when my post has a purpose (prove/decide what happened N1 with Drazerk/S&B)

What was the purpose of that post of yours ghost?



austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
October 07 2012 03:59 GMT
#1039
Caught up on the last couple pages.

Drazerk, when you say you've made it obvious, everyone seems to be latching onto the Cave Johnson bit. And you claimed one-shot vig which I still don't believe.

Are you hinting at being a DT? Hearing you say you've been obvious about it makes me think you're claiming DT with a red check on snb or keirathi.
Fe fi fo fum.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 04:00 GMT
#1040
@S&B and Matt: thoughts on shit please (ghost, Drazerk's claim, me, other shit).
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