On July 22 2012 08:23 calgar wrote: Alright townies, I’ll call it like I see it.
Sorry to see you go jingle, we'll bag the rest for ya.
@confirmed townies – I consider everyone besides iamperfection, tube, fulla, and speed to be more or less ‘confirmed’ as town. This is in varying degrees, of course, considering the fact that we're going on guesses based on our reasoning. I feel reasonably confident that there is enough info to make solid assumptions here in most of the cases.
@direction – It’s difficult to say where to go now because the remaining players are a mix of inactivity and suspicious activity which is helping the mafia hide. I think all four of them have been generally inactive, some moreso than others. I assessed what tiny bit of mufaa’s old filter was there and the vague feel I got based off of it was town. Going off of what little that is, I’m inclined to put him/speedbump on hold and go towards the other three for now.
IGMEOY iamperfection, tube, fulla
I'll kick things off with this vote since it seems to be where hopeless and hapa are leaning towards also. ##Vote iamperfection
[/gives calgar a cookie] I'm willing to get behind this vote, but calgar, I disagree with using the phrase 'confirmed' on most of us except YourHarry. Any one of us could be scum as far as I'm concerned. In the event that iamperfection flips town, I will consider you heavily implicated, despite the fact that you have played an active town role that has helped overall. You, me, Hapa, and speedbump are all candidates to be considered scum. I don't expect you to just believe me when I say I'M TOWN, I'M TOWN! I would have no trouble believing that you or Hapa were scum if you were to suddenly flip. I don't have a case because you've both exhibited very pro-town posting, but the possibility is always there, and you could be very good at looking pro-town. We're not confirmed yet, and I don't plan to forget it.
I hope speedbump improves the lurker situation despite the time gap. The odds are in favour of him being town; I was also reading mufaa as town before he went afk on us.
Again, as I've noted, I think tube is town. I'm also reading Fulla as town for now, despite his poor posting record. I don't find his voting particularly scummy. He thought he was securing a lynch day 1 instead of No-Lynching. He saw that wiggles was screwed day 2 and never moved his vote. I did a similar thing with voting day 1 that he did day 2.
The only read of scum I have right now is iamperfection. ##Vote: iamperfection
@Hapa My understanding of calgar's stance was that as long as Jingle is alive, iamperfection could be counted on to sheep him. The reluctance to wagon on Harry convinced calgar that this would be possible. Obviously that no longer applies, but I dont think his scum read of iamperfection ever went away, he was just ready and willing to lynch wiggles right then and there.
I decided to stop being lazy. I give you a meta case on iamperfection – XIX
He plays roleblocker this game. Apparently mafia ran circles around the town by hanging back and just letting the players kill themselves off. I’ve included relevant QT topic quotes below:
--I am at a lost at what to say --it looks like we dont have to do anything they will go after each other --i think if you push too hard on anacletus it will look suspicious hes digging his own grave let him do it we should just sit back and be more active the next day. --and prom i didnt really call you scum i just said through the text you look suscpicous while all my other posts say we cant really know who is scum on the first day --also i don't get all the complaining about the lack of activity on day 1. wtf are we supposed to talk about. --What are your thoughts on killing blindy he really hasen't done anything so we can kind of be in the same situation we are in now with them running around like their heads are cut off --jesus christ i know you want us to be more active but they are digging their own graves. --whats wifom? --I think if i just jupm on sciberbia's side it will look scummy. Im thinking of posting soemthing of the lines of agreeing with his views on intact but disagreeing with his blind rawr conclusion and voting for his other prime suspect bobthelob. Your guys thoughts?
I picked these quotes to try and show a summary of his overall mindset and methodology. Right away he says he doesn’t know what to say. His mafia strategy is to hang back and let the town go after each other. This quote in our game captures this belief PERFECTLY: + Show Spoiler +
Also, I haven't commented at all on your vote on Obvious.660. It could be seen as a bandwagon, but I don't find it suspicious in itself. As far as your posting goes, I suggest looking at the filters of Calgar and Mufaa, who've pointed suspicion at you.
So you want me to throw out fingers of suspicon that really would serve no purpose other than to be used against me later. What purpose would fos serve the game will change in a few hours and as town the very little information we get come from the result of the night actions. Why be pigenholed now during the night. Its the same reason calgar is upset that jinglehell is trying to make a final be all decesion on who vig should kill.
Also you didnt answer the question. my position on obvious was by far the worse i can do nothing to change on what i posted on day 1. Why wouldnt i just make a throwaway vote and semi bandwagon later on sombody else with less votes if i was a lurking mafia?
He is most comfortable lurking back and trying to avoid suspicion. He briefly mentioned this in some of his XXI posts. He says you can’t know who is mafia the first day. As a random observation, his capitalization is really spotty and that is consistent with his writing style here.
I included a few bits of his strategy to try and get an idea of who’s behind the posts. He is noob and lazy (not taking 3 seconds to look up WIFOM) but shows some awareness of what may or may not be suspicious. I thought the mention of killing a player who hadn’t done anything to be particularly interesting since this is what happened with evul in our game.
His post count from XIX was 42 for the whole course of the game, including post-game comments. This matches his post frequency to XXI pretty closely.
I felt that his intro posts were somewhat similar from XIX and XXI. + Show Spoiler +
From XIX:
On June 29 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote: My username hates any type of random or chaotic thinking. When we lynch someone it must be for a thought out reason. Only a logical well thought out reasoning will gain my vote.
From XXI:
On July 17 2012 00:42 iamperfection wrote:Our goal is to win............ I dont care if someone walks in with a t shirt with im scum plasterd on the front of it we lynch SCUM.
On July 19 2012 00:04 JingleHell wrote: I've actually been told in postgame that GGing someone who gets themselves mislynched looks like post-lynch guilt, and potentially scummy, as getting mislynched is frequently a sign of anything BUT a GG.
So yes, if a Townie gets themselves killed, I do think it's their own fault. This is not scummy, this is a fact.
i dont understand the first line? GGing talking about saying good game to someone after they get killed?
On July 19 2012 03:27 Hapahauli wrote: Oh forgot to clarify, I'm very suspicious of iamperfection's recent posts, and the only sentiment in his favor seems to be Jingle's "this is too easy" argument.
If you could elaborate on what was wrong with my recent posts. Explain to me how my position on obvious and my posting style served to help me in anyway.
This could potentially be a sign here. He’s trying to be less threatening and lower suspicion by showing confusion and noobness. I don't have specific posts from XIX to compare this to, but I talk more about it in my conclusion. Basically I feel that he demonstrated more skill, cognitive awareness, and grasp of strategy in the last game. He regresses here.
He enters both games with an attack on another player’s logic. Convenient way to shift focus elsewhere. + Show Spoiler +
On July 16 2012 10:26 tube wrote: in a game this small where everyone said "i will be active" i dont think lurking is a good idea for anyone, esp mafia
I found this post to be rather odd. It doesn't seem like you're putting any time or thought into your posts - just what randomly comes to mind. You said lurking isn't a good idea but that's what you've managed to do so far. I feel the same way about your intro post.
IGMEOY
idk what igmeoy means but i just didnt do any analysis
It means i got me eye on you google is kind of usefull.
Although calgar's premise is wrong. I think a mafia member is more likely to put much more thought into their posts then a non mafia member. From my 1 game of experience in which i played more of a lurker role as a mafia member the other 2 members put a ton of thought and effort into their posts. Even as going as far as having the coach review their posts before posting them to see what they thought.
In XIX:
On June 29 2012 11:49 iamperfection wrote: Im not understanding your logic just because some one said we should lynch someone means hes mafia? What else are we supposed to do at this point in the game we have zero information besides cryptic bantering. I dont think any value can be put into what someone says on the first day.
Here he tries to stall the town by discrediting any progress that could potentially be made D1.
On July 18 2012 22:50 iamperfection wrote:I also fully believe that at least one mafia member is probally talking a lot. When mafia have a good voice in town they can help steer the talk in a way that benfits them. My goal for the rest of the day is to find the mafia member that is being very active and talking a lot. If i find something i will post before the deadline.
He never gets back to us, of course.
XIX:
On June 29 2012 22:17 iamperfection wrote: Im torn between fencer and anceltus. I dont like the way fencer tried to bandwagon onto someone elses logic. On anceltus i dont really know i think he just posts a lot and he kind of clamed up when some of the suspicion came up. Im leaning more twoards fencer but im new at this so i will wait for more of discussion before casting my vote.
I happen to be damn suspicious of tube right now. But wiggles pointed fingers at him which has lead hopeless to believe that tube is town. iamperfection is also pointing fingers at tube. If perfection flips MAFIA then this gives us huge information on tube. It's extremely unlikely that two mafia would be attacking him. If we can get perfection then this goes a long way towards clearing tube in my eyes. This would leave the last mafia to be either fulla or mufaa/speedbump.
As an overall summary, I find many similarities between his play in both games. In XIX his arguments appeared to be more concise and logical – it seems like he’s tried to purposely ‘dumb himself down’. He actually accuses someone else of being bad in XIX!! + Show Spoiler +
On July 01 2012 05:32 iamperfection wrote: Since you asked i think you are a bad townie.
If he is aware of the concept then how does he not understand how he has exemplified it this game? It seems like he has displayed better situational/meta game awareness in his last game. How/why has he regressed from this point? If he wants us to believe he is a poor old noob helpless townie why did he show MORE skill LAST game? I didn't include specific quotes to show this because it's hard to capture in just one or two. I came to this conclusion just by reading through the two filters side by side. He just seems to make more concise and reasonable, logic-based arguments in XIX. Filters side by side for comparison: + Show Spoiler +
swear to god, if you ask if I want a cookie for this hopeless... !
What do you guys think?
@hapa
On July 22 2012 09:50 Hapahauli wrote: Poop. No medic. GG Jingle, great job this game
D2 started out on the wrong track, but fortunately we pulled a good lynch out of it at the end. Let's find us another scum D3.
@ Calgar - I'm on the same page with you on iamperfection, but I thought you mentioned before the D2 lynch that you were reading him as townie? Why the change in attitude?
I don't entirely know, to be honest. I'm having trouble parsing through these last 4 players because I think they are ALL guilty of suspicious moves and inactivity. I've been strong on iamperfection initially, and strong on him when I was under fire. When he sidled up to jingle I briefly had second thoughts. Now that I've read up on him I'm convinced again, though. It's also a factor of other people I trust also focusing him whereas others are still a question mark.
hopeless's explanation of the reasons are also a decent explanation.
I'm letting you all know that I'm still here. I only got my role PM last night, and I decided it would be better for me not to derail any discussion with me drinking and typing on my phone. After all, we all know what happened to Zephirdd
I've been trying to write about why I feel that iamperfection is my scummiest read for the last hour, but my phone died in the middle of writing that post I just have a feeling in my gut that with how iamperfection has played throughout this game that he's really wishy washy in his analysis, with mostly one-two line posts.
Reading through his filter, the only times he's lengthily discussed anything in this game is when he's been talking about how his personal mafia play style, attacking Obvious.660 of being non-committal when he was doing the same, talking about lurkers, and talking about the confirmed nature of JingleHell (all the while playing the 'What would I do as scum/mafia' card.)
I shall lay a FoS iamperfection for now, because I am struggling a little to jump into this game basically at the start of D3. Once I understand the situatuion from each day a little bit better, then I can post stronger analysis (with the potential of Post-by-Post analysis if it is demanded.) I also think that laying a vote on iamperfection would be a little rash of me because of this situation.
EBWODP: In addition to my post, I would like to state that I have not read the spoilers contained within calgar's post. Whenever I reply on my phone, clicking spoilers refreshes my page and removes what I could be posting.
I should have had my phone post on another tab. ^^;
Return from casino in great mood wons lots of money hit straight flush in 3 card poker. Return to accusations against the perfect one.. NoT cool. Hoever condition allows me to see things more clearly i see the end game i see the light i see what i have been looking. For.
Son of a bitch
On July 21 2012 04:46 Hopeless1der wrote:
In the event that YourHarry is lynched, I don't see a solid target to go after tomorrow no matter what he flips. If iamperfection is lynched and flips town, that's almost an autolynch on calgar. If drwiggl3s is lynched, I actually do think there is a good chance that he's scum based on the case you just made.
On July 22 2012 02:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
Overall you haven't done much for town. You're scummier to me than tube, or anyone else in the game right now. I don't think pursuing your lynch is a waste of time at all. It should generate some discussion and hopefully confirm some reads going into the next day, even if we end up lynching someone else
On July 22 2012 10:34 Hopeless1der wrote:
[/gives calgar a cookie] I'm willing to get behind this vote, but calgar, I disagree with using the phrase 'confirmed' on most of us except YourHarry. Any one of us could be scum as far as I'm concerned. In the event that iamperfection flips town, I will consider you heavily implicated, despite the fact that you have played an active town role that has helped overall. You, me, Hapa, and speedbump are all candidates to be considered scum.
@ Calgar - I'll be blunt - I think your meta-case does more to defend iamperfection than cast suspicion on him. I don't think you interpret his posting style correctly. My thoughts below:
"Intro Posts" - The sample intro posts you give, while similar in length, are far different in content. His mafia XIX post is policy bullshit and attempting to be diplomatic. His XXI post is pretty confrontationa.
"Asserting Noobiness" - He asks a legitimate question in your first quote, and then draws attention to himself (asking to clarify accusations against him) on his second. This is far from asserting "noobieness"
"Attacks on other player's logic" - Again, these are completely different attitudes. In mafia XIX, he directly attacks the person's logic and uses it against them. In Mafia XXI, he disagrees with your premise, but supports your conclusion.
"Showing Indecision" - Completely two different posts - he's indecisive and fingerpointing in XIX ("unsure between fencer and anceltus"), but in XXI, he is aggressive and decisive in his desire to persue "active mafia." Do I support his rationale? No. But is the tone completely different? Yeah.
"A promise to return to action" - I don't think these are scumtells on their own. Plus, he did come back from the casino and delivered some Admiral Ackbar. On that subject, I find it unlikely that mafia iamperfection would come home drunk from a casino and post admiral ackbar in his defense.
On July 23 2012 01:02 Hapahauli wrote: EBWOP: I'll dive through his game filters and look for other quotes, but as it stands, his meta supports his innocence.
@ SpeedBump - please elaborate your thoughts on iamperfection. I know you're catching up, but "gut feeling" isn't enough to get someone lynched.
Maybe you're right. The point that convinced me the most was that he seemed like a better player last game - let me know what you think about that.
On July 23 2012 01:02 Hapahauli wrote: EBWOP: I'll dive through his game filters and look for other quotes, but as it stands, his meta supports his innocence.
@ SpeedBump - please elaborate your thoughts on iamperfection. I know you're catching up, but "gut feeling" isn't enough to get someone lynched.
Maybe you're right. The point that convinced me the most was that he seemed like a better player last game - let me know what you think about that.
Playing better or worse isn't a scumtell as far as I'm concerned. In fact, playing worse could be viewed as reckless "townie" play.
On July 23 2012 02:37 Fulla wrote: It seems to have a went a bit dead...
@Iamperfection - who do you think is/are scum? What are your thoughts?
Well you don't seem to be helping in that regard. Why don't you try making a case instead of bulleting like 4 points and saying you don't have time but you're just relying on your gut?
On July 23 2012 02:37 Fulla wrote: It seems to have a went a bit dead...
@Iamperfection - who do you think is/are scum? What are your thoughts?
Ive been thinking that my biasis from the previous game have been clouding my judgement thinking that their must be an active member as scum. I think for right now my number one target would be tube. The votes tell more of a story to me and i agree with the assesment that tubes vot was an attempt to start a panic bandwagon when wiggles started to get some supsicion.
For the time being i would like hopeless to respond to my previous post by my alter ego from last night.
Both you and tube have been sitting back with the current situation with me being in the cross hairs. Why? What are your thoughts on me?
Why with me current suspicon tube and my new evidence against hopeless have you not even comented on it? You had made previous comments on both players. what now?
As for Hopeless, I don't think he's mafia. He's been posting some good analysis today, and him defending Tube against the entire town can be seen as a townie-trait. If Tube flips mafia, I'll have to look very carefully at Hopeless's filter, but other than that, I have no basis to suspect him of anything.
On July 23 2012 04:43 tube wrote: I said more than that.
You should be kind of freaking out right now. Your actions right now seem to me to be more scum motivated than to be town from my perspective. If you think just by sitting back you can just let me get lynched and just stall for one more. If we take your explanation for your vote at face value it even looks worse. You just voted for the heck of it and didnt read at all? Might as well just have let yourself get replaced if you dont care wether you win or not.
Did i look scummy on day one hell yeah. But ive been trying my hardest with the situation that i dealt myself to try and improve it. At least ill be able to look back the game and say i tried. Did i play the best no (even though the perfect one made 2 perfect reads on jingle and yourharry before anyone else) but im gonna at least im gonna go down swinging. If your town join in the conversation even if you dont agree with the other people are saying.
EPT
I just have a feeling in my gut that with how iamperfection has played throughout this game that he's really wishy washy in his analysis, with mostly one-two line posts.
