TL.net Ten Commandments - Page 519

On February 03 2013 12:10 32 wrote:
Now I have thought about it some more. This time I think I have it.
Monty System: starting location is 1, chosen location is 2
opponent spawns at 2:
scout 3, 4, 2: worst outcome at 1/6 probability
scout 4, 3, 2: worst outcome at 1/6 probability
opponent spawns at 3:
scout 3: best outcome at 1/6 probability
scout 4, 3: middle outcome at 1/6 probability
opponent spawns at 4:
scout 3, 4: middle outcome at 1/6 probability
scout 4: best outcome at 1/6 probability
So worst at 1/3 probability, middle at 1/3 probability, and best at 1/3 probability, the same as if you just chose to scout the unscouted mains clockwise around the map from your starting position.
Really this was simple, I'm just a stupid. the difference is that in the Monty Hall problem, there is no way to get the car on the first door opened, so you make sure to add that probability to the probability of getting the car on the second door opened. In starcraft you can get the correct "door" on your first try, so there is no indication of where the car may be for the second door. There was also a BW map I never understood called Monty Hall, so maybe someone figured out how to get this thing to work, or maybe it was just reminiscent of the 3 doors in the problem. I don't remember, and I doubt I could figure it out anyway if I took the time to try. BW maps are confusing but they look so nice.