[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 46

On January 23 2014 08:53 gonzaw wrote:
He did show up EXACTLY after sandro voted him, and did in fact just go against Foolishness instead of being suspicious of the super suspiciously sketchy vote on him by the lurker that was AFK the whole game which he bowed to policy lynch.

Meh. Makes a nice conspiracy theory lol

On January 23 2014 08:34 austinmcc wrote:
It's part paranoia, but I don't think we can quite read the entire game off of today's lynch. People here are hopefully decent enough not to ALL make scummy votes, or do super scummy stuff, and I know in recent games I've been bitten by assuming scum didn't want scum lynched or blah blah blah.

It wasn't D1 and D1 seems super different cuz you don't want to lose scumbuddies, but...there are enough crafty fellas in this game that I worry about shifting 7-8 reads based on the votes/lynch. Not because I don't agree, but because 1-2 of those shifts are probably scumbuddies and we'll be wrong later.

On January 23 2014 08:42 gonzaw wrote:
The only thing I'm kind of scared is if actually Prome is mafia with sandro and this was some weird gambit, in which they planned on actually getting Foolishness lynched instead.

I mean, you do remember Prome's "We policy lynch lurkers no matter what!" line at the beginning of the game, and he then not doing anything at all regarding sandro right?

Oh god....oh god oh man oh god oh man :O O:

...lol. But other than that, I think we are on good tracks

On January 23 2014 09:04 Foolishness wrote:

I don't think that's actually possible. Look at the order of events.

Starting at this point where there are 6 votes on me and 3 on Promethelax (keep in mind this is 12 minutes before the deadline):
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=41#820

The six votes on me are (in order of when they occurred): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, marvellosity, Hapahauli.

Now there is definitely some analysis to be done on how these votes accumulated on me but I will save that for later.

At this point gonzaw started the switch on sandroba. Austin immediately joined in. Now only gonzaw was voting on me so I'm still winning by a landslide. It's possible that they did this thinking there is no way a bandwagon on sandroba would start, but I highly doubt they would have that attitude. That is, entertain the thought for a second that gonzaw/Austin are actually mafia. They could just hammer the vote on me to ensure a town lynch (incredibly easy for gonzaw to do, Austin could just toss his vote on Promethelax or somewhere else). But that didn't happen.

Then marvellosity switches his vote as well. At this point I have 4 votes and Promethelax and sandroba both have 3.

Hapa and Promethelax also follow shortly after.

It's definitely clear that the switch to sandroba was started and enforced by towns. This was not mafia bussing each other. The big question to answer here is: what reason would mafia have for switching off of me onto sandroba? If I'm town, there's definitely no reason to. I'm hovering around 50% of votes (HolyFlare's vote isn't going to count), it'd be so easy to just ensure that I got voted. The only scenario where the mafia would have reason to switch is if I'm also mafia (which isn't true). But that scenario, however absurd, would be reasonable, thinking that I'm more valuable to the mafia than sandroba is at this point.

Thus I am in the belief that the votes on sandroba were mostly, if not 100%, town. Including my top suspect Promethelax. This seems to make a lot more sense given how that went down.

What does this all mean? Mafia could have ensured I was lynched if they were on the vote switch, so why bother vote switching in the first place? No, mafia did not vote switch. What's more likely is that the mafia were voting for me but not on the switch (VE, WoS) or the mafia were all voting for Promethelax (me, sandroba, kitaman). Note that kitaman was going against sandroba during day 1.

Remember that assuming Promethelax is town, mafia were in a great position at the end of the day. Town Foolishness has 6 votes and the runner up at 3 votes is also town. This is great for them cause they get to decide who's getting lynched. If I'm mafia why is there not more votes on Promethelax and where is my team to defend me? Sure I got kitaman pushing for Promethelax but I was in a desperate situation there. Things wouldn't have unfolded the way they did if that was the case.

So instead this means that mafia were likely already voting for me. But they wouldn't want to go with the vote switch since that was on a mafia. VE is the only person that fits this bill since he was strangely absent during lynch time (and he posted 15 minutes after the lynch). WoS would be gone but I did feel his vote on me was questionable (will look into that later don't worry). Mafia were voting for me and were sitting comfortably, and when a vote switch happened they weren't around for it.