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Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 46

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 23 2012 16:53 GMT
#901
On December 24 2012 01:43 Kickstart wrote:
Eh nothing changed for me yet, going to go ahead and put my vote on SHZ since he is the scummiest to me.


Care to share your number 2 read?
OmniEulogy
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada6592 Posts
December 23 2012 17:11 GMT
#902
Cora I really hope you are scum, your posting is still terrible and your misinformation and lack of knowledge for your facts is amazing. First you call shz out on something about you when he wasn't referring to you and nowhere did I say I had a 100% read on spag. The fact he turned town is the only reason you became clear but my god everything you post sounds scummy. Please read posts more carefully. Please.

Anyway, Cake seems town to me. Aqua remains town. Chrom could be the only masquerading scum in active posters or scum has made it seem that way. I'll just assume Cora is town but more harmful to us than Threesr at this point. Shz either made a smart move defending me and calculated the way this vote would go as mafia so he would get out of suspicion or is also town. Lurkers remain forever hidden and will get another 72~ free hours to not contribute so scum can hide until D3 without worry if my lynch goes through.

##Vote: Orangeremi The only "active" lurker throughout the game who hasn't made a case on anybody in nearly 100 hours.
LiquidDota Staff
Orangeremi
Profile Joined July 2011
United States94 Posts
December 23 2012 17:37 GMT
#903
On December 24 2012 02:11 OmniEulogy wrote:
##Vote: Orangeremi The only "active" lurker throughout the game who hasn't made a case on anybody in nearly 100 hours.

I'd like to argue that I haven't made a case in over 100. All game, even.
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
December 23 2012 17:49 GMT
#904
On December 20 2012 09:29 OmniEulogy wrote:

##Vote: cDgCorazon He slipped up so badly I can't believe it was a mistake. He actually claimed mafia after an already terrible start while being defensive and being overly cautious of most of his posts. I think Theesr's constant back and forth with him made him slip up.



On December 20 2012 09:29 OmniEulogy wrote:
Either way we as town get an extremely large amount of information if we lynch Corazon at the moment. Unless proven otherwise Corazon's slips have made him 100% scum in my mind.


On December 20 2012 21:51 OmniEulogy wrote:
#Unvote
##Vote: Spaghetticus
##FoS: cDgCorazon

Congrats Corazon. I still think you are scum but I'm going to hunt your buddies for the rest of the day.



On December 20 2012 22:41 OmniEulogy wrote:
I was ready to tunnel Corazon until your horrid defense to Aqua's case. 100% believe he is scum. Doesn't mean I'm not going to look for other scum though.


On December 21 2012 19:48 OmniEulogy wrote:
Alright, so to get more conversation going I'm going to go over pretty much everything I believe we've learned from D1.

Reads

I'll start off with Corazon. After re-reading everything he's said a few times I believe I owe him an apology. As he defended Spag while the vote was on him I'm willing to say I believe he is town. He stuck with his vote on Theesr the entire time. I am willing to overlook every mistake up to this point in his posting and trust that what ever he says from now on is from the mouth of a townie.

TL:DR sorry Cora, I believe you are town along with Mocsta, Aqua, Chrom, and maybe shz/fc


On December 21 2012 19:48 OmniEulogy wrote:
Again I owe an apology to Corazon as I believe he might be right in thinking Theesr is Scum or possible SK.


On December 22 2012 22:40 OmniEulogy wrote:
4) Corazon did not get on this wagon at any point - made cases for why we should NOT lynch Spag but instead Threesr. - points to his innocence. quite loudly.


On December 24 2012 02:11 OmniEulogy wrote:
Cora I really hope you are scum, your posting is still terrible and your misinformation and lack of knowledge for your facts is amazing. First you call shz out on something about you when he wasn't referring to you and nowhere did I say I had a 100% read on spag. The fact he turned town is the only reason you became clear but my god everything you post sounds scummy. Please read posts more carefully. Please.


Which one is it? Am I scum or town?

Let us take a look the big things you have done so far:
-Made a case to lynch me while I was on the chopping block
-Made a case to lynch Spag when he was on the chopping block
-Claimed VT
-Backtracked about your feelings on me once your suspicions on Spag were proven wrong
-Defended yourself from multiple attacks
-Tried to pressure Threesr (an easy lynch target) right when people started to jump off of your case
-Backtracked your backtrack about your feelings on me

Your play has been the most inconsistent by far. You're the only one to have claimed a role, which in all honesty your claim holds no weight because anyone could come out and say they are this role and that role. All the cases you have made are just supporting the original cases on someone. You have come up with no new cases by yourself. You have been bandwagoning and choosing multiple targets and easy lynches when you have been put under pressure.

Why would you want to do this? It looks like you are contributing to the town, but it also looks like you are trying to make it so that if you lynch a townie, you won't get completely blamed for it. The only reason you took so much heat for Spag was that Aqua (original case against Spag) defended himself very well and very quickly.

Your push for Threesr to defend himself is also a scummy move. With the pressure right off of you, trying to direct the town away from the right lynch and making things chaotic is the perfect town atmosphere for you to slip out of the hot seat, and for scum to thrive.

Attacking someone with OMGUS just because they are leaning towards voting you is not a smart thing to do at all. You just seem to be too erratic in your behavior and views to possibly be someone that is town, or that the town wants to keep.

##unvote
##Vote: OmniEulogy
Grubby's #1 Fan
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
December 23 2012 17:54 GMT
#905
Why are you STILL bandwagoning onto someone else rather than voting on someone you think is scum?

At the very least, why are you not at least making a case on Cora rather than making these claims and leaving them be?
Your day 1 vote was apparently a pressure vote which turned into believing what people said., but now we're on Day 2 and been defending yourself against the pressure laid against you and Chrom - however unlikely the links were - but you never thought to bring up any more points against Cora, rather you just say that he is scum and vote for who everyone else is/was again?

##vote Omni
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
December 23 2012 17:55 GMT
#906
Seems like my delayed post was beaten to lol
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 23 2012 17:58 GMT
#907
Glad that people are voting; if you haven't already, put your vote on your top scumread. I'm pretty confident that both shz and Omni are scum, so I'll consolidate onto Omni later if shz isn't getting any votes.
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
December 23 2012 18:01 GMT
#908
On December 24 2012 02:58 Chromatically wrote:
Glad that people are voting; if you haven't already, put your vote on your top scumread. I'm pretty confident that both shz and Omni are scum, so I'll consolidate onto Omni later if shz isn't getting any votes.


I'm still concerned about the 3-4 people that have not voted yet. I would be really sad if the game went from 11 players to 5-6. That would not be as fun.
Grubby's #1 Fan
FatChunk
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada93 Posts
December 23 2012 18:03 GMT
#909
Well so far I'm going to have to vote for Omni tonight because lynching omni gives us the most amount of information. Also I pin him as someone trying to cover up a slip, especially because he puts the FoS on me when it was not only me who shares suspicion on him and chrom. I guess I am an easy lynch-target? Then he proceeds to vote orangeremi because he is the only alternative, and then posts 1 sentence on his justification for his vote.

I also did not like his defense of his scum slip. Cakepie in his case post on Omni identified that
As has already been pointed out, this VT claim is utterly ridiculous, and is atrocious ahead of N1 as it helps scum focus their PK onto blue roles. It is premature, since there is hardly a threat of him being lynched. He has tried to explain it as "pre-emptive" to protect himself -- but at what cost in terms of risk to our blues? This is a selfish play without any motive to help the town.

I strongly agree with this, as I have presented in earlier posts.

Regarding his FoS on me:
All I ever said was that I had a suspicion of chrom, something that needed to be examined after a lynch of omni, who is the most suspicious right now in my eyes. I also simply mentioned that Mocsta's case should be considered as we move forward.

+ Show Spoiler +
you are misunderstanding pretty badly. Or intentionally trying to twist what I am saying.
I did not say that I claimed to give more information. I said that it makes sense to claim VT even if I thought he was scum because if he isn't I would be put into this position one way or the other. You argued how I'd know he is town, I replied by saying I didn't, I was pretty confident AND when he flipped scum the information we would gain would be far greater than scum learning my role.

I'm not changing any story I'm just giving you more information behind my thought process because you've asked the same question in different ways about 3 times. I have to go into more detail.

Nowhere in there do I say I claim to give town information.

##FoS: Chromatically This is twice you've tried to either twist my words or intentionally misunderstand to try and get your own agenda out. In the first sentence again no less.


followed by:

I believe I should also add @Shz I still have a town read on Chroma. My FoS was defensive and meant as a way for him to stop misunderstanding my posts and read them again.


I think this could have been handled better. He places FoS too hastily on someone he has a town read on. I dont think his justification for FoS is valid. He is quite defensive as a general posting theme. All this seems to give me a scum vibe.

My stance on threesr is: vote him out on a day that we have weak scumreads, or have a vigilante take him out.

Orangeremi:
-Claims he has suspicions but no scum reads, is reluctant to accuse anyone. When he does vote, he votes to bandwagon and gives no justification for his choice other than that person X presented the case before me. Sounds like he's trying to free-ride.
-"take this with a grain of salt", "I'm not convinced of anyone being scum D1", "although I agree they [OR's arguments] are brief and weak" - quotes like these (not exact) make him appear to contribute without doing so. He is playing VERY safe and gives alot of uncertain reads, or reads that require more information before they can be justified.
-IMO: lazy bad town, or bad scum.

##Vote:OmniEulogy

FatChunk
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada93 Posts
December 23 2012 18:04 GMT
#910
##Vote: OmniEulogy
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 23 2012 18:44 GMT
#911
shz

His problematic D1 voting behavior has already been described by Kickstart:

+ Show Spoiler +
On December 22 2012 00:04 Kickstart wrote:
So I took a look through some filters and the person who stuck out most to me was SHZ. Just a quick lookthrough of his posts shows you that he been very wishy-washy on everything and committed to absolutely nothing. In my mind there are only 2 options for this sort of play, 1 is a timid towny who is unsure of themselves, 2 is scum trying to leave themselves options to try and work their way out of bad commitments. Since I believe this is SHZ's first game I am somewhat inclined to think that he is just a timid towny, but then I look at his voting and his justification behind them (read: NONE) and it seems he doesn't care at all about who gets lynched. Townys should worry very much about who gets lynched because they do not want to lynch town, even first time players know this and typically show that they care about who gets lynched.

His votes are a big issue with me and I read them as scummy right now because to me it seems SHZ does not care who gets lynched (it is typical of mafia to not care who gets lynched, as long as it is town getting lynched), look at his vote posts:
Show nested quote +
On December 19 2012 18:33 shz wrote:
So if we need another wagon to jump, or not, to jump on:

##Vote: Mocsta

Why?
He/She did start a discussion, but I don't think that was all that useful, other than proving him being active and establish an alibi. Questions like the seafood one waste time and distract from substantial discussion. Also he/she is quite fast on "reading" someone as Town. Additionally he/she asked repeatedly about Mafia strategies.

This is no way a waterproof case, but I think its a start and something we could work with.


Show nested quote +
On December 20 2012 13:17 shz wrote:
I would have done it tomorrow but I can do it now I guess.

##Unvote
##Vote cDgCorazon


Show nested quote +
On December 21 2012 07:25 shz wrote:
It seems like we have the strongest case against Spag at the moment. I will still keepmy eye on Cora, but for now:

##unvote
##Vote Spaghetticus



@Aqua:
If you did not argue that, then its all good. Of course rational not equals town, but its not equal mafia either. Its neutral.


He takes every chance to hop on whatever bandwagon is popular at the moment, providing no reason for being on any of them. Given this I think he is the person I am most suspicious of at the moment and want to see some real reads and commitment, not wishy-washy posts that don't commit himself to anything.

@SHZ
Why did you jump on every bandwagon without giving any reasons at all for why you think those players are scummy? Do you have any current scum reads that you would be willing to push instead of sheeping?



And elaborated upon by Chromatically:

+ Show Spoiler +
On December 23 2012 05:45 Chromatically wrote:
shz
shz has been playing like classic scum. Real stances are nonexistant, real contribution is nonexistant, yet he manages to blend in and look like a contributor very well.

Show nested quote +
On December 19 2012 18:19 shz wrote:
Could not sleep, so I can be at least productive here.

I think we pretty much made it clear that we don't accept lurking as a playstyle for Town, so I don't think this will be much of a problem. If it is, we also made the consequences clear for everyone.

Our focus should be to find null- & unconstructive posts which don't help us at all. That would be a pretty good starting point to pressure and get some more information.

Corazon did indeed more or less only reacted to direct questions and was not that talkative in general. I don't think that is a huge tell, but why not investigate further?

The interesting thing is that he/she kinda defended lurking and lying. I don't agree with the arguments at all, as they seem a bit weak and pointless.

His first "contribution" is here. This looks like a good post at first: it's fairly long, it covers a lot of topics. However, all this is is a summary of what's happened so far. He doesn't take any stances on any of the issues of the time: look at the wishy-washiness on Corazon. He's afraid to take an actual stand, so he says things like "they seem a bit weak" instead of taking a position on it himself.
This is merely the first in a long line of posts of this type, taking no stances while writing long posts anyway:
+ Show Spoiler +

On December 20 2012 02:57 shz wrote:
As I did not get any sleep tonight, I caught some of it up until now. This is getting somewhere. So I'll start with answering my questions and then stating my thoughts.

Show nested quote +
On December 19 2012 23:21 cakepie wrote:

shz: Tried to provide a case on mocsta as an alternative to cDgCorazon. However, the fast town read was first pointed out by spaghetticus, and OmniEulogy was the one who first pointed to the questions about scum startegy. Not sure the case is viable at this point, but I agree that Mocsta seems a bit too eager.

Q: Evaluate my play. Does it look town, or does it look scum? Why?


Your analysis is quite thought out and you point out three POIs and try to get something out of it by pressuring them. This is good. At the same time you still trying to get reads on most of the others by asking questions. I don't think these three are your only suspects. All in all I tend towards town as I don't see much evidence which would support you scumminess.

I don't agree with your vote for Orangeremi at the moment though. Yes, he did not contribute until now, but I would give him some more hours before lynching him for that.

@Mocsta

So I'm scum because I said that my case against you wasn't waterproof? What would have happened if I acted so sure about you, as you act about everyone who attacks you? You getting quite defensive and jumping to, rather fast, conclusions about who is mafia and who is not.
You changed your vote from me to threesr immediatly to countervote him and then spam a couple of posts saying "how easy it was", "he slipped", in big red bold latter. This is way over dramatized. To top that of you trying to martyr your way into town. I don't like that at all. I'm still not 100% conviced, but this is not helping you. For now my vote stands.

And I think threesr, however fishy and rare his posts are at the moment, has a point. You seem quite conviced and at the same you are saying you are not.

I don't have an opinion on FatChunk yet, as he did not contribute enough. If we don't find a conses by the lynch-deadline, we should lynch one of the lesser active players, for sure.

Answers a question directed to him, defends himself a little against Mocsta, and still takes no stands. Noncommittal reads on Mocsta ("For now my vote stands"), threesr (leaving his options open by throwing a little suspicion his way), and FatChunk (doesn't have an opinion).

On December 20 2012 08:45 shz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2012 04:36 cakepie wrote:
On December 20 2012 02:57 shz wrote:
I don't have an opinion on FatChunk yet, as he did not contribute enough. If we don't find a conses by the lynch-deadline, we should lynch one of the lesser active players, for sure.


Really? As opposed to Mocsta, who you have your vote on?
If you had to lynch for inactivity and/or lack of serious contribution, how would you order the 3-4 candidates?


Mocsta did contribute more than FatChunk before I voted him.

It seems some of the players have awaken and contributed to the discussion, but some are lurking too much.

1. I'm really getting tired of threesr. Even if he/she isn't mafia he/she is creating so much chaos, only commentates snarky and very brief. He/She is dangerous whethere scum or not.

2. Kickstarter stated that he/she thinks lurking is bad, but lurks him/herself.

3. Orangerem is lurking too much.

4. Sylencia too, but that was announced, so we have to see how the next couple of play-days go.

More noncommittal reads. Wants to lynch threesr even if he's not mafia and attacks Kickstart, Orange, and Sylencia for lurking (very easy for scum to do).

On December 22 2012 01:58 shz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 22 2012 00:04 Kickstart wrote:
@SHZ
Why did you jump on every bandwagon without giving any reasons at all for why you think those players are scummy? Do you have any current scum reads that you would be willing to push instead of sheeping?


"Whatever bandwagon is popular right now" is not true. My mocsta vote was to push for an discussion and I did explain my Corazone vote before. If you want to quote, don quote out of context.

+ Show Spoiler [Corazone reasons] +
On December 20 2012 11:19 shz wrote:
The question is, what information do we get if we lynch one of the current suspects.

Corazon

If Mafia:
- threesr most likely not scum.
- FatChunk unknown, but showing scummy tendencies as he/she did kinda defend Corazon and plans on voting to lynch threesr.


If Town:
- threesr not off the hook, but still not confirmed either.
- FatChunk unknown, but leaning towards town, for the same reason as stated before.


FatChunk

If Mafia:
- Corazone possible mafia, but not confirmed.
- threesr most likely not scum.

If Town:
- Corazone still possible mafia.
- threesr still possbile mafia.

threesr

If Mafia:
- Likely town: Mocsta, Corazon (Very likely town), and FatChunk

If Town:
- Corazone still possible mafia.
- FatChunk still possible mafia.

I'm starting to think that Corazon is indeed the best vote at the moment.


On December 20 2012 12:53 shz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2012 11:50 Chromatically wrote:
@shz
We should be lynching the player who is most likely to flip scum, not based on any information we might gain. We can look at association stuff after the flip, but we want to focus on lynching scum before. Based solely on who will flip scum, who do you want to lynch and can you move your vote there?


Show nested quote +
On December 20 2012 12:48 Chromatically wrote:
@Spag
Our objective as town is to lynch mafia. What we should not be doing is lynching for information instead of lynching mafia. The information gained from a flip is not great enough that we should lynch a townier player. If you look at what shz's post actually says, there's very little actual conclusions that could be drawn. Most of it is just "x is possible scum". All of it is just worrying about the d2 lynch, which we should do on d2 instead of now.
I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty.


We we will never be able to be sure, so we have to single some guys out, discuss, search for tells, and lynch one. And I think it is to our benifit to also include possible information we can get from it in our decisions. We will most certainly lynch town too, so better make it worthwhile in terms of information. This is not me saying we should lynch town for information, it is saying we should always keep in mind that our lynch can flip as town, so better take the safe bet and at least get some information out of, if the worst case will happen. I think all three are good (for the amount of information we have) picks.

Show nested quote +
On December 20 2012 11:56 OmniEulogy wrote:
That is true but I think he's saying all three of them are the top scum picks and then based on information we gain from each of them the one we benefit the greatest from is Corazon from his list.


Excactly.



But after I read the reasons to vote for Spaghetti, it made sense. Of course it didn't matter anyway because he was dead at that point, but whatever.

At the moment I'm leaning forwards FatChunk. But not sure at all at the moment, and I'm busy as fuck so I don't think I can contribute more tonight, I am working on a post with my thoughs on anyone but I have to go now~~. Sorry for the lack of contributions. I will look into FatChunk and see if my suspicion holds true. And I still have the feeling that out of the big mass contributors, there is a scum somewhere.Chroma, Mocsta, etc.

Do whatever you think of it.

Leans toward FatChunk, but is not sure. Also points the finger at "the big mass contributors", which says nothing at all.



Next, let's examine his voting patterns:
Show nested quote +
On December 19 2012 18:33 shz wrote:
So if we need another wagon to jump, or not, to jump on:

##Vote: Mocsta

Why?
He/She did start a discussion, but I don't think that was all that useful, other than proving him being active and establish an alibi. Questions like the seafood one waste time and distract from substantial discussion. Also he/she is quite fast on "reading" someone as Town. Additionally he/she asked repeatedly about Mafia strategies.

This is no way a waterproof case, but I think its a start and something we could work with.

The first vote on Mocsta for some fairly lackluster reasons. I'm not going to say much about this, it could have town or scum motivation behind it, really no way to tell. I could see the scum motivation of discrediting an active townie and possibly pushing that as their mislynch if a mafia was in danger.

Show nested quote +
On December 20 2012 11:19 shz wrote:
The question is, what information do we get if we lynch one of the current suspects.

Corazon

If Mafia:
- threesr most likely not scum.
- FatChunk unknown, but showing scummy tendencies as he/she did kinda defend Corazon and plans on voting to lynch threesr.


If Town:
- threesr not off the hook, but still not confirmed either.
- FatChunk unknown, but leaning towards town, for the same reason as stated before.


FatChunk

If Mafia:
- Corazone possible mafia, but not confirmed.
- threesr most likely not scum.

If Town:
- Corazone still possible mafia.
- threesr still possbile mafia.

threesr

If Mafia:
- Likely town: Mocsta, Corazon (Very likely town), and FatChunk

If Town:
- Corazone still possible mafia.
- FatChunk still possible mafia.

I'm starting to think that Corazon is indeed the best vote at the moment.

He votes Corazon shortly after this post, but with no other justification. He's blatantly lynching for information and is not even paying remote attention to whether Corazon is actually scummy or not. This is the first time he's actually mentioned Corazon since his first (non)read. This was also during the phase of the competing threesr/Corazon wagons, so this is obviously an extremely safe vote.

Show nested quote +
On December 21 2012 01:57 shz wrote:

Before I'm on the road for most of the day before the lynch:

1. We should not assume someone is playing bad or good because of information from sources outside this game. I don't think this is very worthy of discussion. For all we know everybody could be a smurf, played with a smurf before, or just played somewhere else. Don't assume anything, look at their actions in this game.

2. It is too early to discuss possible SK. We don't know if this role is even in this game. We should stick to looking for scum for now.

3. New development!
- So, Carazon is on the verge of getting lynched today and Spaghetticus comes out of nowhere to help. What does that mean?
Either Carazon is Scum, Spaghetti is not, both are or neither is. If Spaghetti is scum, Carazon is too. Otherwise it does not make sense to help him/her out. But this does not help us very much. So the question is if we should change from Carazon to someone else?

What are the argument for not voting Corazon Spaghetti provided:

- Statistics: This does not matter at all. If there is a 75% propability for the wrong lynch in day it stays the same whether we Lynch Cora or anyonw else.

- Votes arent locked, wie can always change Thema before the deadline.

- There is still discussion going on. Cora defended, people analyized. We are not just stopping to post just because Cora is the target at the moment.

I'm not convinced by Spaghettis arguments. Art the Moment I can see him as scum too. I'm not ruling out voting him out.


- Aquanim changes his vote from Corazon to make a case against Spaghetti.

While I agree that Spaghetti is possible scum, the argument that rational posts = scum is dumb.
If anything overly emotional argumemts are Moore scum.

Here's his next big post, as the Spag case has been made, but before the wagon has really taken off. This is another post which looks informative at first, but actually has no content. There's literally no positions taken in this post at all. He has a paragraph about Corazon/Spag associations, but doesn't reach a conclusion. He shoots down a little of Spag's defense, but that's very easy for scum to do.
Note that he doesn't actually vote Spag at this time, even though the case was posted already.

Show nested quote +
On December 21 2012 07:25 shz wrote:
It seems like we have the strongest case against Spag at the moment. I will still keepmy eye on Cora, but for now:

##unvote
##Vote Spaghetticus



@Aqua:
If you did not argue that, then its all good. Of course rational not equals town, but its not equal mafia either. Its neutral.

Blatant sheep onto the wagon when it's finally clear that Spag is the lynch for today (6 on Spag v 3 on Cora). Zero justification is given at all for this vote, ever. Note that he only votes Spag after the wagon has taken off and it's clearly a safe vote.


Apart from that, that's it. shz has:
- sheeped onto Cora and Spag with no reasoning when the wagons took off
- posted long posts that look good, but take no stances at all
- lynched solely for information
- done nothing else



I have the following to add.

Chromatically has also identified this post:
+ Show Spoiler +
On December 20 2012 11:19 shz wrote:
The question is, what information do we get if we lynch one of the current suspects.

Corazon

If Mafia:
- threesr most likely not scum.
- FatChunk unknown, but showing scummy tendencies as he/she did kinda defend Corazon and plans on voting to lynch threesr.


If Town:
- threesr not off the hook, but still not confirmed either.
- FatChunk unknown, but leaning towards town, for the same reason as stated before.


FatChunk

If Mafia:
- Corazone possible mafia, but not confirmed.
- threesr most likely not scum.

If Town:
- Corazone still possible mafia.
- threesr still possbile mafia.

threesr

If Mafia:
- Likely town: Mocsta, Corazon (Very likely town), and FatChunk

If Town:
- Corazone still possible mafia.
- FatChunk still possible mafia.

I'm starting to think that Corazon is indeed the best vote at the moment.



Chromatically already notes that it bad to lynch for information rather than trying to read if Corazon is scum or not.
I would add that this is nearly a full day to go before the lynch, with plenty of time left for positions to change, so presenting this information gain analysis as guidance for choosing how to vote is ridiculously premature.

It is also interesting to note that despite his conviction that Corazon is "the best vote at the moment", he does not change his vote yet, instead keeping it on Mocsta (it has already been brought up how that itself was a terribly bad and flippant "pressure vote")

Only when Chromatically prompts him here:
On December 20 2012 13:12 Chromatically wrote:
Yes, right now I want to lynch Corazon, with FC in a close second. Tomorrow I will examine them again to make sure that that really is my preference; hopefully at least one will have responded by then.
If you want to lynch Corazon, can you move your vote to him?

On December 20 2012 13:17 shz wrote:
I would have done it tomorrow but I can do it now I guess.

##Unvote
##Vote cDgCorazon


Does he change the vote... TWO HOURS LATER ... although he was around during much of that duration.
And the "best vote" could wait until tomorrow? This is irresponsible.
Why did he need to be prompted by Chromatically before he would change his vote? To lessen the amount of responsibility he would have to bear for it?

Omni is bigger fish for now, but you're next on my list.

##FOS: shz

-----

OrangeRemi

Recall that I assessed his D1 as follows:
On December 22 2012 08:50 cakepie wrote:
Held up patiently against my pressure vote in D1, choosing not to jump into anything in haste at all. Inspecting his filter in relation to the whole thread will reveal that he is present and paying attention, watching and waiting, and hopefully analyzing.


I continue to sense that he is present and lurking rather than completely absent, answering enough questions to seem active. The only time he came close to questioning anyone was when he asked what I thought about Mocsta's theory about me being scum with Omni and Chrom, and that is only in response to me asking thoughts from the present players in (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=766&topic_id=386911)

Hypothetically, for his play to be town, he would be have to be continuing an incredibly cautious playstyle of not singling out players on the basis of only weak suspicions, and completely avoiding points that have been brought up before so as not to be accused of sheeping.

The current state of affairs does mean that some of us may find ourselves with many weak scumreads, and he admits as much... but there is no initiative from him to question anyone further, not even people who are clearly available in the thread.

It is no longer acceptable to sit and wait and analyze passively. The quieter players have already been called on several times to step up and speak out.

In case it was forgotten, this still stands from before:
##FoS: OrangeRemi

-----

Kickstart

I voted him early D2 to prompt for more, but all I got was anger in response. He clearly took issue with my play, yet did not pursue the matter, even when I openly invited questioning. Then he states that he did not like my play when asked for his opinion by Aquanim. He has built a case against shz based on his tendency to vote and jump on wagons without justification. He has commented on threesr, but that is not very useful. No other case was forthcoming despite a request from Aquanim.

Somewhat more useful than OrangeRemi, but I was hoping for more from him. I regret backing off so quickly from pressing him for more -- part of it was due to shock at his reaction, and part due to the confusion of trying to figure out why and what I might have done wrong.

As it is, all we've got is a case and vote on shz and his remaining suspicions on me -- and it is not clear if that forms his next strongest case.
His thoughts about threesr do not really carry any new information since threesr has reverted to lurking, and many of us already agreed long ago that it is more worthwhile to pursue scum.

You can do better than that, Kickstart. If not a case, at least reveal some of your other suspicions to us, or explain why you have chosen not to do so.

##FoS: Kickstart


Promethelax
Profile Joined February 2012
Canada7089 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-23 18:55:22
December 23 2012 18:55 GMT
#912
Votecount:

Orangeremi (1): OmniEulogy
OmniEulogy (5): Orangeremi, cakepie, cDgCorazon, Sylencia, FatChunk
threesr (0):
shz (2): Chromatically, Kickstart

Not voting (3): threesr, shz, Aquanim,

Currently, OmniEulogy is set to be lynched! ~5 hours remaining in day 1.
Please PM any of your friendly neighborhood hosts if your vote is counted incorrectly.

Remember that you have to vote.

Full version:

+ Show Spoiler +
Orangeremi (1): cDgCorazon, Aqaunim, cDgCorazon, OmniEulogy
OmniEulogy (5): Chromatically, Orangeremi, cakepie, cDgCorazon, Sylencia, FatChunk
threesr (0): OmniEulogy
shz (2): Chromatically, cDgCorazon, Kickstart
FatChunk (0): Aquanim
Kickstart (0): cakepie,
No-Lynch (1) cDgCorazon


Not voting (3): threesr, Aquanim, shz


TL Mafia. Love it. Play it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 I find Kennigit really attractive. If anyone has a picture of him please feel free to PM it to me.
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 23 2012 19:02 GMT
#913
On December 24 2012 02:11 OmniEulogy wrote:
Anyway, Cake seems town to me. Aqua remains town.


1. Care to explain why you think I am town? Mocsta listed me at his #3 read, and Kickstart has his misgivings as well. Other players have put me at null or difficult to read. What makes you think otherwise?


2. Please elaborate on why you consider Aquanim to be town.
As far as I can tell, your assessment of Aquanim is given here:

On December 21 2012 19:48 OmniEulogy wrote:
If Aquanim were scum, he didn't need to try to get Spag lynched to save Corazon, as Corazon defended Spag and imo proved his innocence. If Aqua were scum he could have sat back and let us lynch Cora. - same thing happens N1 but his name isn't out there for starting the lynch. For this I believe Aqua is town.

Which is based on your change of heart about Corazon:
On December 21 2012 19:48 OmniEulogy wrote:
I'll start off with Corazon. After re-reading everything he's said a few times I believe I owe him an apology. As he defended Spag while the vote was on him I'm willing to say I believe he is town. He stuck with his vote on Theesr the entire time. I am willing to overlook every mistake up to this point in his posting and trust that what ever he says from now on is from the mouth of a townie.


This has already been pointed out as ludicrous. "100% scum" to "what ever he says from now on is from the mouth of a townie.", just for Corazon not joining the Spaghetticus wagon?

Care to elucidate beyond this reason?
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 23 2012 19:12 GMT
#914
EBWOP: clarification

On December 24 2012 04:02 cakepie wrote:

Care to elucidate beyond this reason [why you think aqua is town]?

shz
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Germany2687 Posts
December 23 2012 19:44 GMT
#915
I did, what I think is a good approach and sumarzied every (living) player. I think there is a lot to learn from this, now bundled, information. I commented sometime, but mostly it is just the information. I will draw my own conlusions from that after this post. I may have overlooked something, so you can of course correct me.


+ Show Spoiler [OmniEulogy] +
OmniEulogy:

Cases:
No real one.

Suspicions:
Corazon
FatChunk (FoS)
Mocsta (SK, not really though)
shz (SK, not really though)
Orangeremi (FoS)
Sylencia (Heavy suspicion)
Kickstart (later)

Votes:
Corazon
Spaghetti

Town Reads:
Chroma
Threesr
Mocsta
Later: Corazon
Aquanim
Chunk (maybe, after a couple of days)
shz (maybe, after a couple of days)
cakepie (null, then town)

Mentioned: (12/12)
Corazon
FatChunk
Mocsta
Orangeremi
Sylencia
Theesr (Devils Advocating for him)
Kickstart (Agreement, later null-read)
Corazon
shz (Agreemen, later null-read)
Cakepie
Aqua (Mentioning)
Chromatically

Notes:
Claimed VT



+ Show Spoiler [cakepie] +
Cakepie:

Votes:
Orangeremi
Spaghetticus
Kickstart

Cases:
Half cases on shz, Orange, Kickstart


Suspicions:
Corazon (FoS)
threesr (FoS)
Mocsta (because of the over-eagerness. Not a strong suspiciuon)
shz
Aqua
Chrom
FatChunk
Omni

Town Reads:
Sylencia

Mentioned: (12/12)
Aquanim (commending him, no real read)
Corazon (FoS, pressure)
Chromatically (Light commendment, looking forward for more)
FatChunk (null-read, should stept it up, later commend for threesr-case)
Kickstart (Not active enough, pressuring threesr, after its safe anyway)
Mocsta (over-eager, null-read, less policy, more cases)
OmniEulogy (Waiting for more contrb)
OrangeRemi (Vote)
shz (agreement, not really any read though)
Spaghetticus (Solid)
Sylencia (AFK)
threesr (FoS)

Notes:
Clamined RB
Lurkish: 2 pages of content



+ Show Spoiler [Kickstart] +
Kickstart:

Votes:
Spaghetti
shz

Cases:
shz

Suspicions:
FatChunk (no fan of the posting)
shz (wishy-washy, no commitment)
cakepie
threesr (defending lurking)

Town Reads:
None

Mentioned: (5/12)
FatChunk (explain theesr-vote)
shz
cakepie
Orangeremi (pretty much null-read)
threesr

Notes:
Lurker: 1 page of content



+ Show Spoiler [cDgCorazon] +
cDgCorazon:

Votes:
Aquanim
threesr
Orangeremi
shz (took it back right after)
No-Lynch (at two occasions)

Cases:
Orangeremi
OmniEulogy (somewhat)

Suspicions:
shz
Omni
Chromatically
Aquanim (town-read before)
Kickstart (lurking mafia)

Town Reads:
cakepie
Mocsta
Spaghetti (maybe good mafia)
FatChunk

Mentioned: (12/12)
FatChunk
threesr (No matter what, anti-town)
Sylencia (null-read
Aquanim
threesr
Orangeremi
shz
OmniEulogy
Chromatically
Mocsta
Spaghetti
Kickstart



+ Show Spoiler [Orangremie] +
Orangremie:

Votes:
No-Lynch
FatChunk
OmniEulogy


Cases:
None


Suspicions:
FatChunk
Threesr
Corazon
Kickstart
Spag
Sylencia (more in the beginning, less now)
Omni ("in no way he's town")

Town Reads:
Aquanim

Mentioned: (11/12)
Fat Chunk
OmniEulogy
Threesr
Corazon
Kickstart
Spaghetti
cakepie (Not really though)
Chromatically (not really, a bit on the positive side)
Sylencia

Hasn't mentioned me once.



+ Show Spoiler [FatChunk] +
FatChunk:

Votes:
threesr
OmniEulogy

Cases:
None

Suspicions:
threesr
Chroma
Aquanim
shz
Sylencia

Town Reads:
Mocsta
Spaghetti

Mentioned: (12/12)
shz
OmniEulogy
cakepie
Chroma
Mocsta
Corazon
Orangeremi
Spaghetti
threesr
Aquanim
Sylencia

Kickstart (only once, agreeing with him)

Notes:
Lurkish: 2 pages of content



+ Show Spoiler [threesr] +
threesr:

Votes:
Mocsta
FatChunk
Corazon


Cases:


Suspicions:
Orangeremi
cakepie

Town Reads:


Mentioned: (8/12)
Omni
cakepie
Chroma
Mocsta
Corazon
Orange
FatChunk
Aqua

Not: shz, kickstart, Sylencia, Spaghetti



+ Show Spoiler [Aquanim] +
Aquanim:

Votes:
Spaghetticus
FatChunk
Corazon
OrangeRemi


Cases:
Spaghetticus


Suspicions:
shz (I think?)
Omni (somewhat)
cakepie

Town Reads:

Mentioned: (12/12)
Spaghetticus
FatChunk
Corazoin
OrangeRemi
Spaghetticus
shz
OmniEulogy
cakepie
Kickstart
Chroma
threesr
Sylencia

Notes:
Lot of policy talk.
Very hard to read.



+ Show Spoiler [Sylencia] +
Sylencia:

Votes:
Corazone
Omni


Cases:
None

Suspicions:
threesr
shz ("Littly shady")
Chroma ("Still keeping my eye out, but isn't so bad.")

Town Reads:
Corazon

Mentioned: (12/12)
Corazone
Omni
threesr
shz
Chromatically
Kickstart
Mocsta
FatChunk
Aquanim
cakepie

Not really mentioned:
shz
OrangeRemi

Notes:
No idea what to think. He said himself, that he is like a ghost here. And that worries me. I don't get clear reads on anything from him. Just his two votes on the current flavors of the day.

Notes:
Lurkish: 2 pages of content



+ Show Spoiler [Chromatically] +
Chromatically:

Votes:
Corazon
FatChunk
Omni

Cases:
Corazon
FatChunk
OmniEulogy
shz

Suspicions:
Cases or nothing.

Town Reads:
Mocsta

Mentioned: (12/12)
Mocsta
Sylencia
shz
threesr
Omni
Kickstart
Orangeremi
theesr
Corazon
FatChunk
Spaghetti
Aquanim (rarely)
Sylencia
cakepie

Notes:
He did say, while playing mafia in another game, he did try not to mention his

scumbuddies. When we analyze his post with that in mind some things stick out.

He only mentions Sylencia twice:

Asks why Mocsta thinks syl would be suspicious and never mentions it again.

On December 19 2012 11:18 Chromatically wrote:
Is there a particular reason you find Syl more suspicious than others who have

only posted once?


And asks Syl (and others) to contribute more, while defending Kickstart and Syl

instantly.

On December 21 2012 10:08 Chromatically wrote:
Theses are the people that need to post more:
-Kickstart
-Orangeremi
-Sylencia
-threesr (during the second half of d1)
-

It's nearly impossible to get a read on you if you're all lurking. One day is

excuseable, more than that is not. There were many chances to comment on things

during the day that you didn't. I think it's very likely that at least one scum

is hardcore lurking and it's working because multiple town are also lurking.

Kickstart and Syl have said that they have time problems, I assume that you'll be

able to post more going in to d2. Orangeremi I see as particularly suspicious out

of this group for being lurky all day for no particular reason.
tl,dr; don't lurk so that we can find the scum.


cakepie, he only mentions once in all of his posts:

On December 22 2012 08:30 Chromatically wrote:
So who do you actually think is scum, cakepie?

He said himself, that he avoided mentioning his scumbuddies in his last game. And

here he avoids mentioning, let alone pressuring these two.



I am conviced we will find connections and answers in here.
Liquipedia
Kickstart
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States1941 Posts
December 23 2012 20:02 GMT
#916
Why the list post ;/. And why do that and say you are convinced we will find connections when you could look for them yourself and then post those? I was waiting for you to do something to convince me that you might be town but that post wasn't it.
OmniEulogy
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada6592 Posts
December 23 2012 20:18 GMT
#917
yeah no problem cake.

Basically it comes down to, Corazon defended Spag while Corazon was still #1 lynch. If he was scum he shouldn't try to save him. Aqua started the case, if Corazon is town and Aqua is scum, Aqua doesn't need to throw his name out there to get people to switch to Spag. The only way it makes sense is if both Aqua and Corazon are scum and Cora's consistent terrible play is intentional. I've just decided he's bad at reading though and he continues to support that.

Anyway as I seem to be on my way to the noose and you'll soon find everything I've said to be 100% true.

Chrom has distracted you all from getting any information from lurkers or what to do about them today.

Shz stepped up and as I've said before either made a really smooth play as mafia by defending me (knowing my alignment) or really did look through the posts and come to the right conclusions.

and cake I find your posts to be very well written and you've made real cases on people, you haven't defended them before they flip town.
LiquidDota Staff
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
December 23 2012 20:29 GMT
#918
On December 24 2012 05:18 OmniEulogy wrote:
yeah no problem cake.

Basically it comes down to, Corazon defended Spag while Corazon was still #1 lynch. If he was scum he shouldn't try to save him. Aqua started the case, if Corazon is town and Aqua is scum, Aqua doesn't need to throw his name out there to get people to switch to Spag. The only way it makes sense is if both Aqua and Corazon are scum and Cora's consistent terrible play is intentional. I've just decided he's bad at reading though and he continues to support that.



If you can't remember, Aqua (not you) was the first one to cast a vote on me. He cast a pressure vote on me to get me to speak up. Why would he do such a thing if we were both scum? Bussing that early before anyone else has suspicions is a stupid way to play Mafia.

Aqua switched off of me to Spag because Spag defended someone who was under fire ("100% scum", in your words), and Aqua felt like Spag had only asked others to contribute and had not contributed much himself. Aqua switched off of me as a gamble to get a good scum player lynched Day 1. However, the gamble did not pay off and Spag flipped town.

Your logic is bad. You've run out of real ways to defend yourself and are just trying to say a bunch of things to confuse town and hope they do not lynch you.

Try again.
Grubby's #1 Fan
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 23 2012 20:29 GMT
#919
Omni, if you vote shz, he might get enough votes to be lynched over you.
shz
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Germany2687 Posts
December 23 2012 20:33 GMT
#920
On December 24 2012 05:02 Kickstart wrote:
Why the list post ;/. And why do that and say you are convinced we will find connections when you could look for them yourself and then post those? I was waiting for you to do something to convince me that you might be town but that post wasn't it.


Because lists are less emotional and I rather look for patterns than typos and wording errors (which seems to make cases).

I will look for connections etc., but why not show the information I will base it upon? This is a group effort, so this is one more tool to use to expose scum.
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