EPTHe can say to X: "Look I am pretty sure you are not mafia and you know it. As far as you are concerned, there is 50% chance Y being the scum. I also have 50% chance of being mafia. So it should be OK for you to pick between me and Y." But this would be flawed, because probability of Y being mafia is actually 25%. So this could possibly screw our plan.
Newbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 44
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
He can say to X: "Look I am pretty sure you are not mafia and you know it. As far as you are concerned, there is 50% chance Y being the scum. I also have 50% chance of being mafia. So it should be OK for you to pick between me and Y." But this would be flawed, because probability of Y being mafia is actually 25%. So this could possibly screw our plan. | ||
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 11 2012 12:50 BassInSpace wrote: On ky phone now, I must of course be the miller. If there atre Any cases against me I will respond to them when I get bavk as well as providing my thoughts on the current situation. Hehe. Too bad, you are either getting ignored until day 5 or you are getting lynched today  | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
@BassInSpace - While we wait for someone to post a case/defense against you: who do you believe is(are) the best lynch target(s) for Day 3? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
our chance of winning would go up to Situation 1, we lynch Bass D3. 50% chance of Bass flipping Mafia (50% chance of victory) 50% chance of bass flipping miller 1/3 chance of lynching correct D4 (1/3 of 50% = 16.7%) 2/3 chance of mislynching D4 ---> 1/2 chance of lynching correct D5 (1/2 of 2/3 of 50% = 16.7%) Chance of winning: 83.3% :D | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Cool! Mod kill Mod kill :D LOL Actually would this make things less interesting. But no more mod kill please. More than 1 mod kill = bad :D OK I should start posting some content. | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
Evul that was an idiotic move investigating Bass | ||
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The_Zen_Man
Sweden202 Posts
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
Anyway I was suspicious of Bass already as multiple times he's been hinting to lynch me. He'll be getting my vote anyways. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
Also: On July 11 2012 10:37 Evulrabbitz wrote: Oh man I asked that question like a jackass. It should have been vanilla townie or miller. Anyway, we got the answer. Building a case against BassInSpace is pointless. It will all come down to WIFOM. There is probably nothing that can stop us from lynching him. He will die either today or tomorrow. If it's because he is scum or he is very unlucky, that is what we are about to find out. Not lynching him now would be stupid. So what you are basically saying is, there is not enough evidence to actually lynch me other than WIFOM? I would then argue that if you can't find evidence against me, you should probably look for scummy behaviour somewhere else, since I'm still a town vote that you will lose should you lynch me. I am obviously going to side with Hapa here; whenever you choose to lynch me, you have a 50% chance of lynching mafia. However, by actually keeping me alive and looking for actual scummy behaviour from others, you are only increasing your chances of winning. I'm not gonna do the math, since others have already done it for me. As for who I think could me mafia? Mackin has been lurking. He could be taking everyone else's complacency as an excuse to not do anything. He is eager for my lynch simply because I've been "hinting" to lynch him. However, can anyone say that my pressure on Mackin was not justified (again, he himself admitted I had valid points against him)? I was not the only one who was suspicious of him, and I had to poke him a few times before he would finally clarify his position, since it seemed everyone else was focusing on other players while he was suspected but never prodded. The previous points made about YourHarry still stand (at least until he actually starts scum hunting again). His eagerness to jump on my lynch without considering alternatives also isn't a point in his favour. | ||
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
What we do know is that you are either miller or scum. | ||
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
I am obviously going to side with Hapa here; whenever you choose to lynch me, you have a 50% chance of lynching mafia. However, by actually keeping me alive and looking for actual scummy behaviour from others, you are only increasing your chances of winning. I take it you disagree with what I said above and still want to lynch me? What I am "basically saying" is that any case against you and any case for you will come down to WIFOM. There is no way to prove that you are townie without saying "He might be acting to seem townie" just as there is no way to prove you are scum. The whole point of mafia is to use logic to find scum. According to your logic then all of mafia is WIFOM. If you think the 50% chance of me flipping mafia when you don't even have anything against me other than a potential false positive is worth the risk, I'm not sure how I can change your mind. Lynch me and you will have given the mafia another day to live, and lost a town vote. | ||
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
The fact that you even think your votes is of more value to the town than a confirmed townies view is ridiculous. The town has such and advantage the vote doesn't really matter; What matters now is confirming people's roles so their words gain credibility. If you try to convince me to lynch someone other than you now (which is to some degree understandable) all I will see is potential misleading. If you make your cases against who you think is suspicious and, if lynched, flip green, they all know that the information you have provided is 100% town-aligned. I don't choose who to investigate by chance. I chose you because all trough this game you have been trying to make a case against Mackin but when the voting is due you jump onto the most voted person (granted you did have to chose between Lazer and Hopeless, but the concept still stands). I found that somewhat scummy and decided to investigate. | ||
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