EPTSalem post game analysis thread - Page 2
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On December 11 2010 09:36 Ver wrote: I can do more if someone wants but judging by the poor level of interest this should be sufficient. Bootcamp is going to die a miserable death if this keeps happening. Hopefully a non-pm game where the players aren't all worshiping a leaky circle will produce more interest. But if you want to improve then say something, don't be shy. Otherwise I can't see the analysts caring too much either if few others do. The summary of this mafia was: good ideas, bad execution, and luck. No doubt they were crippled by Radfield sporadically having irl issues, but overall the mafia simply didn't have enough initiative and were too content to sit back. Basically you suffered from what plagues most mafias: complacency. After how easy day 1/2 were you didn't really have much to do so everyone pretty much got lazy until Dr H turned up the heat on day 3 and then the mafia were ill prepared. There's no easy solution here, just recognize that complacency has caused many mafia losses from superior positions. Day 1: The primary focus of day 1 should have been to either get Dr H lynched or make his position virtually untenable. Dr H's posts did absolutely no good for the town and he had no proof: he could very easily have been a mafia. There are good reasons why Dr H was town, but that really doesn't matter, but it would have been ever so easy to twist Dr H into appearing as mafia or CE. Mafia definitely let him off way too easily and gave him open room to dominate the town. THAT SHOULD NEVER HAPPEN. It is the mafia's job to instill doubt amongst the players and the game atmosphere. I have won a game as mafia once where 3-4 of our members were glaringly obvious to the town, but through a variety of means subtle and via brute force, we made the town doubt their conclusions just enough to influence the voting towards non-mafia. At the end of the game, the town didn't even realize how they failed to lynch the right people. Good mafia are almost always proactive and don't just sit back. The other good part about focusing on Dr H would be to misdirect the focus off of the lynch target, which is exactly what happened.  Radfield did a good job in the thread but he was without enough support. This should have been a doublesided campaign: ridicule Dr H in the thread, and subtly push suspicion on him in pms.As for the lynch, it was simply unlucky that brownbear didn't have internet so he couldn't defend himself. The town should have realized though that mafia simply don't get lynched that easily on day 1, but being good on day 1 requires its own unique skills. Night 1: Barundar- Was not necessarily a bad hit, though one giveaway was his posting style. If you looked through some of his other forum posts, it remained the exact same overall. He did have 1 questionable post agreeing with Dr H , but the mafia should have pm'ed him and tried to get more evidence as he didn't have sufficient evidence to warrant hit. Aidnai- From a thread perspective, there is zero reason to think he is blue. He posted thoughts openly and went about without any fear or hesitation. So now this has to be weighed against the pm radfield received. I can understand why the pm might make them lean that way, but it could also be interpreted as simply the normal town doubting process which I don't think the mafia considered, as mafia don't need to doubt someones innocence. It was a little suspicious, but his thread behavior pointed towards green, and thus mafia should have placed this on the backburner. Deconduo- This isn't really a bad hit from the mafia POV: you simply got unlucky, and deconduo made a great pick. His focus was not quite the same as when he was blue in haunted mafia, but I think(?) the mafia did pick up on his wishywashy, weak opinions and feel of hiding something. Blue Analysis: Scara: Check his post history if you are interested. Even though he didn't live till night, his post history shows quite obviously that he had a role. Coagulation: Ok, so mafia knows a medic claimed or Dr H. Obviously killing him makes Dr H look immensely guilty. Mafia did realize this but they somehow ignored it and didn't focus hard enough. He's basically spelling it out for the mafia right here. In addition, while he posts a fair amount, they are all low-content and give the appearance of hiding/shrinking back. Kenpachi: He claimed special townie in order to avoid dying lol. In addition, went into an absolute frenzy to avoid being lynched when normally he is more apathetic. Not much more needs to be said, though the mafia did keep him alive to use as bait in day 2. This worked splendidly. Artanis[xp]: 1) Abnormally few posts 2) Glaring contradiction in saying: then doesn't actually do what he says he does (helping town go forward). 3) His one useful post talks about DTs and circles. 4) No mention of blue roles. HMMMMMMMM something smells here. Day 2: Mafia made limited interference today but what they did was enough. It was really up to south to get Dr H looking in the wrong direction simply by prodding him to 'look at this guy for x reason' and let Dr H get overswamped and lack focus. iirc Pandain looked pretty guilty by the lynch swap to DTA and the mafia could have framed him pretty easily but nothing was done here. Day 3: Jimbosilvers finally stepped up to the plate and started delivering. However, he was supported by....nobody. Even still, his persistent defense almost reaped dividends when Dr H started publically doubting himself. However the mafia still didn't make a move, even a subtle one by pm's, and JS died instead of YM. However, the day ended with radfield looking in much better shape than he did before it started and the town now squarely focused on Youngminii. Night 4: Don't really know why Pandain was chosen over someone more dangerous like Kavdragon but it didn't seem to matter too much. Day 4: This was the ultimate complacent lynch. There was literally no opposition to Youngminii throughout the entire day. The case against Youngminii was paltry: 'he isn't playing like usual and claimed veteran, this doesn't mix.' Which is certainly all true, but none of it means he must be mafia. The town should have picked up on the absolute lack of defense for YM (I think someone did but was ignored), and the mafia should have staged a little more drama just to make it seem like things weren't so simple and possibly give someone a little cred for defending YM. Day 5: This day's proceedings was better run by the mafia. Mafia pretty much auto won unless SR died, and Radfield/SR staged a little debate while not making it take up much. In addition, Radfield started 'panicking', which made the lynch look a lot more real and, had the game went on long, would have left a mess for the town to sort through. This seems bang on to me. As far as the Barundar hit, I felt pretty sure he was Dr H's Medic, simply by process of elimination. I was looking for a newish player, who hadn't called out Dr H, who Dr H wasn't directly responding to in the thread. Barundar was the only player in the game who fit that bill(also, almost all his posts mentioned Dr H and his Circle). Unfortunatly, Dr H and Coag weren't quite that transparant. My day one blue list had 8 people on it, only 3 of whom were blue: "Aidnai - I think he may be the dt, he is really fishing for peoples reasonings on why x player is scummy or not. Barundar - probably the medic Possible blues: Annul Amber[light] Kenpachi youngmini - laying very low, quite uncharacteristically kitaman27 Deconduo" Obviously I have a long way to go to improve my scum play. Unlike most people on this site, I think I am a much stronger town-aligned player than mafia-aligned player. Unfortunately(fortunately?) I didn't get much of a chance to keep trying to blue snipe, since by night 2 we had the role list. Ver, I'd be interested to hear some analysis from the town point of view, IE: finding mafia. I feel like most people can see why I came off scummy(big posts with low content, pushing people to scum-hunt without doing it myself, etc), and likely why SR could be implicated(especially towareds the end of the game). But I think most town players were stumped after that; What made Nemesis, Ghrur, Esben and maybe even Jimbo appear as mafia. Part of the problem perhaps is that the town was generally quite complacent(as well as mafia) and weren't forcing mafia to post. In effect, there was little separating much of the towns contributions from the mafia contributions. I think many players are not quite sure what they should be doing or how they should be contributing. Perhaps you(and all the analyzers) could speak a bit to how a town player should be contributing, and what that really means. I feel like this is at the root of the sometimes lackluster town play. EDIT: I think the reason Artanis slipped through the cracks on my Day 1 blue-hunting list, is that the only other game I have played with him he was modkilled on Day 1 for inactivity. EDIT2: Just saw Incognito's post. Reading now. | ||
Ver
United States2186 Posts
As for the blues, it really is tricky. Figuring out roles in general requires intuition and the ability to pick out the right information from all the useless stuff. Like when I go through the mafia in a sec I'll just pick out the really glaring/incriminating posts and ignore all the unimportant ones. Radfield the best way to improve at blue sniping would be to read through older games with the mafia list and try to identify blues and what role if possible. Then after you know what they are go through their posts. Over time you'll build up a storehouse of patterns that will let your subconscious mind pick out the important parts very rapidly. A few more mafia tips:
-Force information overload or underload on the game and specific people. In this game you did a reasonable job of overloading Dr H while underloading the town; to a degree. Mafia: Protactium + Show Spoiler + On November 27 2010 05:25 Protactinium wrote: Hello everyone, I just had a wonderful Thanksgiving and I am ready to play! I hope people will be more active than it has been (I know I was not helpful here, but I am here now). I am sure the game will start to pick up now that Thanksgiving is over. Of course, now we have Black Friday. So maybe after today, the thread will start to be filled with discussions. To help ensure that activity levels will rise, I will like to remind everyone (or inform people who don’t read the rules) that if you are inactive you will surely die without giving an excuse to the mods. I know we can not force people to read the thread. That is not the activity I am tlaking about here. By inactive, I mean for one not voting. Everyone needs to vote! “If you do miss a vote, you will be modkilled.” The problem with voting at this stage of the game besides the fact that it is only Day 1 is that we have no discussions currently to based our vote upon. Don’t worry, I am hoping that I will be able assist everyone here by reminding (hopefully) or informing you of the serious threat at hand of not posting: “Furthermore, you must post at least once in this thread every day and night cycle to avoid being modkilled” As you can see, everyone must post at least once per cycle and they must vote. I highly recommend that everyone post during the day cycle before voting. If you vote during the day cycle and decide to make the minimum of one post at night. You are just hurting town by not trying to contribute. If you don't have anything good to say, then just post telling us that you are around. I would not suggest spamming the thread so everyone will know that you are reading the thread 24/7. That would probably get real annoying and then I might get people to join me in lynching you. If you take the prior extreme discussed and post the minimum, I will try and advocate for your lynch as well. If you think you can live by not posting and voting by the mercy of the mods, I would like to point out that the mods are serious in their endeavor to kill. “I enjoy modkills, please, let me use bears (Yes, I modkill with bears. Deal with it.)” Yes, he said it. He enjoys modkilling. Do you think he would sacrifice his joy of killing you to have mercy on you without a valid excuse? If by some luck of chance he does, do you think you can survive the wrath of the town? If so, what makes you think that you will not get hit by Paranoid Villager? Do you really think a medic would protect you? If you believe you will withstand all of these obsticles, then I question your sanity. With that I rest my case. Everyone must post out of fear of punishment. On November 28 2010 03:40 Protactinium wrote: I decided to look back through the thread to double check everyone in that list. They all at least posted once. I am glad that they used their minimum post during the day instead of the night. However, The posts for a few of them are not long enough to get a read on. Scaramanga posted: Kenpachi posted: youngminii posted: deconduo posted: It's hard to get more mafia than this on day 1. Look at all the "content" he has posted. Now look at what it really says: 1) don't be inactive 2) Here are some quotes from people. What's the common theme here? Trying to look like he's a contributing townie...without contributing! No biases, no fingers, no independent thoughts even lol. Jimbosilvers + Show Spoiler [JS posts] + On November 27 2010 09:19 JimboSilvers wrote: Hey guys, sorry it seems I'm late to the party DrH, is there anymore to that PM chain? Did your mysterious person ever respond? Still though I dno't really feel like that's that safe to trust, especially since I'm confused as to how you could have a confirmed person so easily? It would really come down to all that you 'feel' about that person. Your reasoning kind of seems like you're WiFOMing yourself too... On November 27 2010 13:19 JimboSilvers wrote: Well I'm not saying that all analysis should be thought of as WiFOM. But right now with absolutely limited information it seems weird. Though I kind of do kind of agree it's risky for Mafia to try such things, so it does make your story more valid. Even so I think it's not a good idea for people to roleclaim (in general) yet since we have nothing to go off of :/ I agree with kitaman when he says we should be focusing on the lynch, since we have a day left now and not much to work off of. Te problem here is that there are many people who haven't posted yet, so one of them should be the target. For instance annul knows the game has started (he posted some spam post a few pages back?) but hasn't posted anything since. And off the top of my head looking at the player list I think these people haven't really posted: Annul and Scaramanga both have posted Harry Potter-related stuff while not actually saying anything else? Kenpachi just has one line and Amber doesn't really have any game-relevant posts either. Neither does youngminii. Rocco, Georgeclooney, Pandain, node haven't posted at all. I think I'm just gonna randomly pick a person to vote in a bit maybe... It's a lot harder to keep track of people online than it is in real life  There are more of course and I'm guilty of not posting much myself But I've got some time since it's the weekend now and can post more, so let's get the show on the road On November 28 2010 06:08 JimboSilvers wrote: I'm going to go vote for BrownBear, seeing as how he steps in, accuses somebody of inactivity, and then promptly absconds again. Hopefully I'll be back before deadline to see if he is posting, as to perhaps remove this inactivity vote. Those posts are almost as bad as Protactinium's (Qatol picked up on this right away). First note how hesitant he is in saying anything critical. He instills a little doubt in the first post, then in the second he says he's probably going to randomly lynch. No suspicions or anything. A little too neutral. Lastly in the 3rd post he is way way too hesitant and afraid about voting. And, he says he can post more, but he definitely does not post much until day 3. That's a common mafia move. Jimbosilver's defense vs Dr H was quite solid overall, but there were two catches: 1) Jimbo does little the entire game until he is attacked. Then he started breaking out the bulldozers defending himself. It's like he's a completely different person. 2) Jimbo doesn't do much else besides defend himself and paint Dr H's argments as silly. It's true he attacks Dr H but his energy is not directly convincingly. I,e it's like 90% defending himself and 10% attacking Dr H. In other words he's not paying that much weight to who is mafia, just concerned about himself. It's possible he's just a overly defensive townie, but the combined evidence is far too much. Lastly, Foolishness pointed out his error of posting how many mafia are left with certainty. That's a sure giveaway. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On December 12 2010 08:48 Ver wrote: On the other hand, someone like Ace, Foolishness, or L can get sidetracked into long arguments with stubborn townies. I resent that! =P And I posted my analysis on the first page. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Looking at it now and comparing to Foolishness' analysis, I see I was focussed on a lot of the wrong things. I assumed townies would see things the same as I did, so people who took a different view than me in the thread were automatically suspicious and people who held the same view as me were automatically trusted. Due to this wrong tendency of mine, I had the following mislabeled. Red: DTA Pandain Node Town: Radfield Jimbo I did manage to get some guesses right (DrH, Deconduo, a few others), but I'm not terribly proud of myself. Interestingly, I guessed SR was red (but for the wrong reasons). Radfield in particular was a lesson to me. He was a rare wise voice day one giving town very solid advice and even quoting me (flattery) giving the same advice. He earned my trust even more than DrH, who I had lingering suspicions about. The PM I sent him was completely honest in design, and though it ended up making me a meat-shield for our blues, i can't credit myself with great play here either. In hindsight, what I realize is that mafia often feel a stronger need to appear pro-town than do actual townies. I shouldn't have automatically trusted Rad for giving solid advice day 1, especially when his follow up was quite weak (he continued to 'try' to stop the town circle and roleclaims, but did little to no analysis/scumhunting himself despite insisting that is how games are lost or won). Thanks for the analysis Incognito, Foolishness, Ver, and others. I'm sorry this game didn't work out as well as hoped in that regard, and that it feels like there's no interest in the analysis. I feel like most people who invest the time to play mafia would do well to invest the time to play well, so I hope the response is better in the future...Edit: typos | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On December 16 2010 03:27 aidnai wrote: Thanks for the analysis Incognito, Foolishness, Ver, and others. I'm sorry this game didn't work out as well as hoped in that regard, and that it feels like there's no interest in the analysis. I feel like most people who invest the time to play mafia would do well to invest the time to play well, so I hope the response is better in the future...The analysis is definitely appreciated. The thought process from the more experienced players is very helpful. The main question I have is how do you distinguish inactive townies from inactive scum. For example, esbenpm/nemesis vs. node/aeres/ktheZ. Is it just a matter of forcing them to post more so they aren't inactive to begin with or are there certain slips that we just didn't catch on to? Thanks again. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On December 16 2010 03:47 kitaman27 wrote: The analysis is definitely appreciated. The thought process from the more experienced players is very helpful. The main question I have is how do you distinguish inactive townies from inactive scum. For example, esbenpm/nemesis vs. node/aeres/ktheZ. Is it just a matter of forcing them to post more so they aren't inactive to begin with or are there certain slips that we just didn't catch on to? Thanks again. The best way to find out is to make them post more, as you said. It usually doesn't take that much for them to post either. As an example, if you read through TL mafia XXX (hosted by flamewheel), I was able to catch youngminii as mafia in this way. I made a semi-long post accusing him, got two or three other people to agree with me and voted for him. He immediately came out and started posting a bunch, which resulted in him slipping up and confirming he was mafia. As a general guide, there are a few things you can look out for to help distinguish. It's a hard process and requires a lot of analysis to rightfully determine if someone's an inactive mafia or an inactive townie, but I'd like to think it's something I've gotten good at . A guideline I like to follow is that inactive townies are bored, while mafia are never bored. Thus posts that are made on a whim and seem to be like "whatever" usually indicate a bored townie. Remember mafia are very careful when they post because they are scared of getting caught. Townies generally have no fear of posting in the thread.Something else I've also noticed is that mafia are always reading the thread and catching up, compared to an inactive townie who's probably a little slow to catch up from time to time. Thus if you make a post against an inactive mafia (or PM them), they are more likely to respond instantly than an inactive townie. This isn't guaranteed to work, but I've noticed it generally occurring. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
Two prominent players stand out early in the game. For one, DH as obvious town: Notice how he reacts to the roleclaim situation. First off, mafia wouldn't announce this. If medic is fake, then mafia runs into big trouble, if medic is real, mafia just stays quiet and kills him. Second, it doesn't seem like DH has everything planned out. He's reacting to information as it comes and doesn't seem to have a clear agenda on day 1. This suggests likely town because mafia would want to be more careful in this situation. Third, DH takes control of the town and does not make status quo posts. He tries to get the town rolling and moving in a certain direction. Arguably its not in towns best interests, but it certainly does make people react and stirs the pot. Mafia don't need to stir the pot if nothing is going on. Much easier just to sit back and enjoy the inactivity. DH makes things happen even if they aren't done in the best way. Should he have been called out? Yes. But does this make him mafia? Unlikely. Finally, the last consideration is that DH could be traitor. But this really doesn't make sense. From mafia's point of view, DH is dangerous since he's obviously not mafia. Being a town circle leader as a traitor makes no sense because it makes the mafia nervous about you and doesn't really help the mafia. Unless you let mafia know who the blues are. Which didn't happen, so by day 2 it should be pretty obvious that DH isn't traitor. In contrast, Radfield is quite clearly mafia. He is a big name player. He is known for being a town leader. This game, he acts no different. He positions himself as a town leader, but does not lead the town. Instead, he tries to influence the game without actually being at the center of things. This is very mafia-oriented behavior. Townies like DH aren't afraid of taking the spotlight and leading the town. Mafia, on the other hand, do want to influence the game, but they don't want to be at the center of attention. Notice how Radfield attacks DH from the sidelines, gives helpful but generic advice, and never calls attention to himself. He tries to deflect to DH, and in the later days, does very little to lead town. He just makes an input on who should be lynched, and disappears. Compare this behavior to other games where he is town, such as PYP2. Radfield takes a big step to lead town and puts himself at the center of attention. Radfield also never suggests anything positive for town to do, although he does try to attack DH's circle. Contrast this with HP mafia (the original) where as mafia he sneaks in the shadows (and provides a bunch of useless lists). And yes, Radfield makes abunch of useless lists this game. He makes an "inactives" list and assembles a votelist for the Kenpachi/BB deal. Yet he doesn't offer any insight on any of these. Its just like "here they are, lets see if you can lead yourself to some wrong conclusion". Radfield doesn't take leadership, just appears to be useful. At the end of day 1, Radfield also posts a list of people who "likely have a role". This is just terrible town play. You don't give red a list of who you think is blue. Period. Yet nobody really catches this. Based on how they react in thread, Radfield and DH were among the easiest reads day 1. A useful tip is to look at how big names react. Look at who is controlling the game, and how they are doing it. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On December 16 2010 03:47 kitaman27 wrote: The analysis is definitely appreciated. The thought process from the more experienced players is very helpful. The main question I have is how do you distinguish inactive townies from inactive scum. For example, esbenpm/nemesis vs. node/aeres/ktheZ. Is it just a matter of forcing them to post more so they aren't inactive to begin with or are there certain slips that we just didn't catch on to? Thanks again. Sometimes you can't and this is where policy lynches and mods come into play. The best cure however is a Vigilante. Best role in Mafia by far for multiple reasons. | ||
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