EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XVI - Page 18
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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ha236
Sweden36 Posts
On June 11 2012 08:11 Release wrote: If i'm still alive after tonight, I guarantee that i will get ha lynched. On what grounds? I still see no sensible reason from you. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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ha236
Sweden36 Posts
On June 11 2012 08:15 Release wrote: To be honest, i was on the fence until you ridiculously vote solstice, then me. I look forward to your read on me on day two. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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KtheZ
United States813 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
Don't worry. I make sure ha is dead tomorrow. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
 I'll be sharing something I've been working on closer to the start of day 2, in case I'm deaded shortly after. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
First off, sucks that we lynched our medic, but shit happens. Let's take a alook at the entire voteswitch-process. In the end we had 5 votes on Zen_man: Vivax, solstice, lazermonkey, ha236, grush57 Rest was distributed as following: grush57: Zen_man, kthez, ha236: ShiaoPi ShiaoPi: Release As we mislynched I believe it to be plausible to first take a look at the people who voted Zen_man. Vivax: One of the driving forces behind the lynch, made a good case against him and said he will switch if possible --> No need to doubt him for now. S0lstice: He had been mainly focused on ha236 and then proceeded to switch on Zen_man after more pressure was applied. As he said the following: On June 10 2012 09:12 s0Lstice wrote: I think ha236 is a better candidate. That one post flashed red big time. Lots of words that started on one end of the opinion spectrum and ended on the other. Trying to appear useful, but really the conclusion is errr I dunno. I will be pushing his lynch, but I will not do so at the expense of the majority. If I get traction, good. If not, then I will wait on ha236 to insure the day 1 lynch. One could raise some eyebrows as at the moment solstice unvotes there was actually the majority on ha236 (correct me if I am wrong through). But overall he did a pretty good job on day 1 in regards to scumhunt, so does not stand out as of now. Lazermonkey: First one to really apply pressure on Zen_man and make a case against him, entirely consistent in his stance. Also first to put down his vote on him. Nothing here as well. ha236: Switches in order to ensure majority on zen_man to dodge the lynch himself. Before he switched onto Zen he just went with some OMGUS votes on Releae and solstice and his general play does not give a very townie vibe of him. I am more than willing to off him come Day 2. grush57: He looks really bad to be honest, I hoped he would have cooked something up by now as the pressure shifted to ha236 and then to Zen, but he still delivers simple one-liners, no outlining of his thought-process make his posts at the beginning even more suspicious than they were before. Switches without much reasoning. Also a good candidate to lynch come the next day. Now on another note I would like to alert you guys to KtheZ: -His filter is in the beginning really full of moderating, contentless posts. -He had that weird "lynch for info" post -What struck me as weird is that he states to be willing to switch to ha236 but he is absent at lynchtime, so he would not have been able to fulfill that intention anyway.... His last post is about 30 mins before deadline and then he pops back in well beyond deadline, saying he was "away for a while" It is still not enough to make me want to vote him but, I'll be keeping an eye on him FoS:KtheZ | ||
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EchelonTee
United States5245 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
On June 11 2012 07:08 s0Lstice wrote: We do have an hour or so. I'm not loving my vote on ha236 anymore If we want to vote for Zen_Man I will switch. Something that has been bugging me about ha236 is that he has been constant in his defense of Grush, he even doubled down. I find it difficult to believe that a scum ha236 would attract attention by tying himself to one of the most controversial people in the thread. He could have just as easily went after a grush57 lynch, it would have been easy. Very few other people have agreed with me on him as well. I think it would be prudent to go elsewhere. ## Unvote "ha is my scumbuddy. Zen_man looks equally scummy, but is town so i'll be ready to bandwagon him" You know why ha236 can defend Grush so easily without having fear of lynch? Because we were never going to vote grush anyways. Grush is controversial, but he is so openly controversial. In otherwords, he's been acting like a jackass. You do something like what ha236 has done and attention begins to go away (my fight with grush was basically over with the conclusion that he didn't want to answer my questions.). 4 people agreed with you on ha236 (including you, it would have been a majority). Myself, grush, vivax, and shiaopi. Somehow, none of us caught this the first time but i almost did + Show Spoiler + not Elsewhere? Just say Zen_man The unvote is pretty much solidifying what you have said in the first line, which i think is pretty much claiming scum. I'll be going through his filter to provide some more info just before day post. If i'm alive, i'll handle matters as i please, but if i die, you will + Show Spoiler + lynch, i repeat will lynch solstice | ||
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KtheZ
United States813 Posts
On June 12 2012 06:44 ShiaoPi wrote: I promised some more contribution, so here are some of my thoughts regarding the entirety of day 1: First off, sucks that we lynched our medic, but shit happens. Let's take a alook at the entire voteswitch-process. In the end we had 5 votes on Zen_man: Vivax, solstice, lazermonkey, ha236, grush57 Rest was distributed as following: grush57: Zen_man, kthez, ha236: ShiaoPi ShiaoPi: Release As we mislynched I believe it to be plausible to first take a look at the people who voted Zen_man. Vivax: One of the driving forces behind the lynch, made a good case against him and said he will switch if possible --> No need to doubt him for now. S0lstice: He had been mainly focused on ha236 and then proceeded to switch on Zen_man after more pressure was applied. As he said the following: One could raise some eyebrows as at the moment solstice unvotes there was actually the majority on ha236 (correct me if I am wrong through). But overall he did a pretty good job on day 1 in regards to scumhunt, so does not stand out as of now. Lazermonkey: First one to really apply pressure on Zen_man and make a case against him, entirely consistent in his stance. Also first to put down his vote on him. Nothing here as well. ha236: Switches in order to ensure majority on zen_man to dodge the lynch himself. Before he switched onto Zen he just went with some OMGUS votes on Releae and solstice and his general play does not give a very townie vibe of him. I am more than willing to off him come Day 2. grush57: He looks really bad to be honest, I hoped he would have cooked something up by now as the pressure shifted to ha236 and then to Zen, but he still delivers simple one-liners, no outlining of his thought-process make his posts at the beginning even more suspicious than they were before. Switches without much reasoning. Also a good candidate to lynch come the next day. Now on another note I would like to alert you guys to KtheZ: -His filter is in the beginning really full of moderating, contentless posts. -He had that weird "lynch for info" post -What struck me as weird is that he states to be willing to switch to ha236 but he is absent at lynchtime, so he would not have been able to fulfill that intention anyway.... His last post is about 30 mins before deadline and then he pops back in well beyond deadline, saying he was "away for a while" It is still not enough to make me want to vote him but, I'll be keeping an eye on him FoS:KtheZ To address what struck you as weird: I was originally willing to switch my vote to ha if there was a no-lynch potentially in sight. However, when I left there were 5 votes on ha, which was enough majority to create a ha lynch. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
On June 12 2012 07:39 KtheZ wrote: To address what struck you as weird: I was originally willing to switch my vote to ha if there was a no-lynch potentially in sight. However, when I left there were 5 votes on ha, which was enough majority to create a ha lynch. Just proved my point earlier. ty | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
On June 09 2012 11:08 s0Lstice wrote: If everyone played with that logic, the thread would be empty forever. People not talking is something to talk about, obviously. What do you think of my comments on tunneling? I think a townie would ask more open ended questions such as "on tunneling" rather than "my comments ..." He avoids the tunneling subjecty more or less but wants to get some posts going about other posts 9not the content really... On June 09 2012 12:28 s0Lstice wrote: Lynching all liars is dicey. In a newb game I'm betting any lies we find will be unintentional. If you are referring to a blue claim, there will be plenty of context to interpret it if/when it happens. There is no need for a policy application there, just reasoning. Lynching lurkers is still risky, but the chance of hitting scum is definitely there. As I said, the stakes are high, as every mislynch is painful. If the lurker in question flips green, then at least we have rid ourselves of a useless townie. This is why I still advocate it. People who are talking give us content to work with, and in the absence of a compelling case, we could do a lot worse than lynching a crappy townie/maybe get lucky hitting scum. That said, it's a worst case scenario. The onus is on us to smoke out the scum so we don't have to resort to the policy lynch. Policy lynches suck ballz, especially in smaller games. He's kind of hinting that we should be open minded to a policy lynch. Only useful part is find scum, but everyone knows that anyways. On June 09 2012 12:50 s0Lstice wrote: I'm out for the night. There has been some stuff said on policy. People who haven't posted yet should post their thoughts on what was discussed. I want to be done with this policy stuff sooner rather than later. Also, I want to hear what others think of Release and grush. My opinion is that Grush's comment on having nothing to talk about was weird as hell. Release has done the talking here so I won't repeat. Grush, I will be watching to see what you do when there's more content to work with. This is like going to the school yard and saying "FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT" b/w two townies. hopefully, the rest of town ends up supporting me and lynching grush, you and i get credit for the lynch and you are above suspicion. Trying to buddy up as far as i can tell, and a little bit to check if there will be some sort of wagon. On June 10 2012 04:54 s0Lstice wrote: Very happy to see that the discussion has picked up. Now I want to talk about ha236 Let's look at his post on grush and LazerMonkey. This is a soft defense of grush, based on the sentiment that a first time player makes mistakes, yet you don't care enough to check if this really is his first game? How is that 'w/e' when your defense of him relies on qualifying the mistakes he is making as first time player mistakes? Then you talk about LaserMonkey.. Very loud contradiction. If Lazermonkey's comments are strange then why are you agreeing with them? Why did you defend grush if you think Lazermonkey has something there? ##FoS: ha236 trying to appear useful by pointing out a scum trait and revealing it to us all about your scumbuddy. But when we realize that only the posts are weird, the idea is fine, and there is no contradiction (opposite ending), he gets vindicated. On June 10 2012 04:56 s0Lstice wrote: Also Vivax, I've seen your town play, and lurking is not it. Your silence is extra suspicious. meta gaming is shit in mafia. No stopping someone who played 1 game to change how they play, especially based on feedback. On June 10 2012 08:52 s0Lstice wrote: ha236, sharing your opinions is fine, even if that opinion is "i'm not sure on him yet." You however did a play by play of Lazermonkey....kicking it off with how you felt his posts looked strange, continued to build a sort-of case?, and then agreed with his findings. Your thoughts are a problem because they contradict themselves. I'm pretty much convinced that you are the perfect candidate for us to lynch D1. ##Vote:ha236 you reinforcement from earlier although ti's mostly repeated. This post tells me that a proper townie would probably have done the vote the first time and not bothered with the second post. On June 10 2012 09:03 s0Lstice wrote: Now as far as grush is concerned... The only thing in his filter that raises my eyebrows is the 'nothing to talk about' post. The rest is neutral mostly, because it's OMGUS tit for tat defense against Release. I want to see what he does when he doesn't spend every free minute defending himself. OMGUS is not neutral. It's a waste of space and scummy. Subtle confusion beign spread about here. And i have pointed out many time that OMGUS doesn't require every free minutes. On June 10 2012 09:12 s0Lstice wrote: I think ha236 is a better candidate. That one post flashed red big time. Lots of words that started on one end of the opinion spectrum and ended on the other. Trying to appear useful, but really the conclusion is errr I dunno. I will be pushing his lynch, but I will not do so at the expense of the majority. If I get traction, good. If not, then I will wait on ha236 to insure the day 1 lynch. Let me get ready to excuse myself from voting incase i get good traction On June 10 2012 09:27 s0Lstice wrote: Really? Because it seems like every time I refresh the thread you have a new post going after him. You are pressuring him pretty hard. He feels the need to respond to every single post, with OMGUS or something else mostly useless. I grant this is bad play, as he should have disengaged from you a lot sooner than he did. The point is the read on him is not strong, as his filter is full of garbage. This can be a scum-tell, yes, but there is also town motivation for his behavior. As town, he is incredulous that you are pursuing him so hard...this explains the sarcasm, the snippy remarks etc. He erroneously feels his best move is to match you hit for hit, and this will help confirm him as a town read. He's been told to post something that contributes, and what he does will be good information. It will certainly be better than what we have on him now. If it's not, then hell yea let's lynch him. he has time. Don't know why you take up so much space to write this. On June 11 2012 04:04 s0Lstice wrote: KtheZ is rocketing up the scum charts. We lynch to kill scum. Period. Factoring in what information our target will give to decide our lynch candidate is ludicrous. You suggesting it is scummy. People have already talked about your percentage nonsense, so I won't rehash beyond saying that it paints you in a very bad light. If you are aiming to get lynched, keep doing it. We want words, not numbers. Kthez is obviously not being too clear. That said, if you flip townie, we should probably consider Kthez, but it's a big if. On June 11 2012 04:51 s0Lstice wrote: This isn't an essay. Often there will only be one big scum-tell post, a smoking gun if you will, off which to build the case. Your first post was mostly fluff, where you attack a player for a bad read, pick that read apart, and then agree with the read. You can get mad all you want, but it was a contradiction. That said, I don't see your one post on Lazermonkey as the only thing counting against you. We are hours from the deadline, and all you've done of note is defend grush, and accuse the people accusing you. Many townies may make seemingly scumtellish posts at least once. Scum make it multiple times. that's why the bold is just going to confuse the town and cause town to start spreading fingers everywhere. On June 11 2012 06:24 s0Lstice wrote: Alright so the case on Zen_Man He is taking a firm stance on grush by voting for him, and has been consistent with his views on him as I see it. He does not provide any reasoning behind his suspicions, true. He really should have. That said, the reasons for grush's scummyness have been discussed quite a lot, and agreeing with them (parroting/bandwagoning) by itself is not dead red scummy. If he agrees, he agrees. As far as his exaggerations, I feel this is under the OMGUS umbrella as well. The bottom line is I see fledgling efforts to hunt scum, and I want to see more. As of right now, he wouldn't draw my vote. he doesn't draw your vote? Why did you immediately unvote after this post and then vote him? Here is a real contradiction. The rest i addressed ealier. [b]s0lstice[b], you are dead. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
1) His filter has a lot of garbage. He has 6 posts about nothing but policy. These lead in to 3 posts where he is basically directing traffic. He posts percentages for scum reads, sometimes accompanied with reasoning (grush), other times without reasoning (ha236). Then there is this eye-sore: + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2012 03:51 KtheZ wrote: So now that it is time to decide who to lynch, we should think about whose lynch will provide the most information. The current FoS/Lynch votes have been directed to: grush<---- Release(voted), me ha<------- s0lstice The_zen_man<-------- Lazermonkey(FoS) Lazermonkey<---------- The_Zen_man(FoS) Or something like this. To me, the most probable first day lynch will be grush or ha. (zen man and lazermonkey have been trading blows with one another, but we havent paid attention to that all that much) What info will lynching grush provide us? grush's stance toward: ha: Thinks he is mafia, but was soft defended by ha. Release: reads town on release, was the individual to put grush into spotlight KtheZ: Suspicious because he didn't notice how ha is "obviously" mafia s0Lstice: He seems positively inclined toward s0Lstice Vivax: Thinks he is mafia, because he was lurker (does position change now that hes posting?) Note:No noted opinions on others What info will lynching ha provide us? grush:soft defended by ha KtheZ: unconvinced ha is mafia s0Lstice: FoSed/Voted ha ShiaoPi: Advocated pushing ha for more info Note: I haven't seen many of ha's own opinions on others, just him defending hiimself. No noted opinions on others. ShiaoPi, you should post some more! I'm curious to hear your position on things! I've talked about this post some already. It's scummy as hell. Here we are bearing down on lynch time, and here he uses all these words to talk about stuff that doesn't matter in the slightest until after we see the flip. I'll say it again, this post screams 'look at me I'm being useful!' That's the common theme to be grasped here; there is a whole lot of non-contributing contributions in his filter. By itself it could just be bad town play, but keep it in mind as we move forward. 2) Scumhunting. Let's look and see how he has been pursuing the win condition. His strongest read is against grush57, who is far and away the easiest person to make a token case on for scum. A lot of people were on his ass for his play, and it was very easy to just blend in here. I want to look specifically at KtheZ's suspicions on grush: + Show Spoiler + On June 10 2012 14:19 KtheZ wrote: Grush: His first post, which implied encouragement of less discussion day 1, definitely struck me as something a scum might do. In the ensuing discussion he started OMGUS-ing a little, and met release's scathing cross-examination with responses of his own. I applaud release for FoSing Grush, not because grush may be scum, but because he managed to squeeze out precious information on this first day. This new debate over ha was only possible because release decided to talk. Anyway, after looking over grush's responses and his final "okay im done with this shit" post, he does seem slightly scummy. Considering the lack of useful information he has provided within the span of 30-40ish posts, and my feel over reading his posts, I would place the ballpark of him being scum being around 44-55% (Which is much higher than the average person, 11%) First thing I notice is the rambling lack of focus. He play-by-plays and takes the time to compliment Release. The important thing to notice however is his stance. He goes from 'this is a definite scum tell' to 'slighty scummy' to '44-55%' chance of a scum flip. At the end of that sequence do you really have any idea what his stance is? How does slightly scummy translate to a coin-flip scum possibility? Here's more: + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2012 03:35 KtheZ wrote: As for Grush: I think this is the first time you have finally made an accusation up front, that ha is obviously mafia. It strikes me as awkward that you would attack someone who soft defended you. Enough about you, lets talk about me! Extremely soft pressure. The point is poor to boot....attacking someone who has soft defended you means basically nothing. You go after your reads regardless of what their opinion of you is. Following this he votes, and his vote stays put throughout the mislynch of Zen_Man. Now let's look at his opinions on another prominent case that was going on: ha236. On June 10 2012 16:23 KtheZ wrote: ha: I've looked through his posts and, besides a soft defense of grush, he doesn't appear that scummy to me. Personal risk analysis: chance ha is mafia: 22-25% chance ha is mafia given grush flips:44-55% All of these percentages are based on "as of now" On June 11 2012 06:24 KtheZ wrote: Although I am not convinced ha is scum, if it comes down to a no-lynch I will switch my vote to ha. I have read his posts and s0Lstice/Release's arguments and have concluded that he is a reasonable second to grush. Almost no explanation for his read. He dances around this issue...he doesn't think ha is scummy, but will vote for him to ensure the lynch. Ok, that's fine. He doesn't stop there though. He justifies a vote for ha for an entirely different, opposing reason, by saying my and Release's arguments have swayed him enough for ha to be considered a 'reasonable second to grush.' I have no idea what his actual opinion is after this. Is he voting on one of his town-reads to ensure a lynch, or did the arguments sway him? The only other thing of note is the bandwagon on The_Zen_Man. But again he doesn't come down hard on the issue, it leaves him 'suspicious enough to at least FoS him.' The bottom-line is KtheZ has taken the safe route in all of his actions so far. His firmest stance is on grush57, and as I've shown, it really isn't all that firm. He is playing it safe because he doesn't want anything to bite him in the ass later. He doesn't particularly care for hunting scum because he IS scum. 3) One last point, but it's a good one. I want to point out how he behaved following Zen_Man's flip: On June 11 2012 09:36 KtheZ wrote: Geeze I leave for a while and somehow we have managed to bandwagon crazily within the span of 30 minutes. What the hell? What happened to the original game plan of lynching ha? There, that post has some fire in it. Notice how out of place it is within the rest of his filter...it just doesn't match. Nowhere else does he really show any venom. This mismatch is a scum-tell. Scum like to come in after a mislynch and upbraid people, they feel it makes them look town. I'll even cite Ver's newbie guide, have a look: On August 26 2010 13:09 Ver wrote: --snipped It's a common mafia tactic to arrive just after a lynch is final (in this case, 24 minutes later) and start berating everyone and putting suspicion on those who were responsible. Keep in mind that doing so absolves them of any responsibility (they weren't 'around' ). The case he was talking about was similar to this one. A mild mannered politician like player suddenly showing up after a mislynch and being uncommonly firm, making everyone else feel guilty. Summary: -Lots of filler and pseudo-contributions in KtheZ's filter -Politician like, inconsistant, scum-hunting. Top scumread is the easiest case in the game -Sudden change in persona following the mislynch I feel pretty good about this read. Release, I know you are after ha236, but please consider what I said. That goes for everyone else too, let me know what you think. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
On June 11 2012 23:52 s0Lstice wrote: This thread is lifeless I'll be sharing something I've been working on closer to the start of day 2, in case I'm deaded shortly after.Where is it? I looking but don't see it. Don't break a promise. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
my bad | ||
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EchelonTee
United States5245 Posts
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