EPTOn January 05 2012 12:33 Probulous wrote:
I like you
WIFOM is bad, yes what I wrote was WIFOM but it was hardly necessary to the point I was making. I do not believe that all mafia are lurking, sure people can vote them, I won't be one of them. But I concede your point about me WIFOming. I won't do it again.
Discussing it helps no-one. If we have a situation where this comes up, for example people claiming, we discuss it then. Not now. It clogs up an already busy thread.
I am not a smurf, so don't insinuate that I am. If people think I am dangerous, great. Try and be dangerous too. I don't want to be the only one pushing my reads hard. If you find someone suspicious, go after them hammer and tongs.
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 12:15 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town.
Is this game about finding townies? No.
I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies.
Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie.
Your priority is finding scum.
Now, apparently you forgot about that part.
+ Show Spoiler +
What?
If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense.
Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive.
Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads.
I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will.
Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out.
I think you are scum bro.
+ Show Spoiler +
Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though.
Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears?
Wtf?
*sigh* this won't get us anywhere.
Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them.
The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game.
*sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to.
I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things).
##unvote: Xeris
##vote: CookieMaker
You know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play.
You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such.
Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that.
If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case.
Also Probulous, something I want to clear:
+ Show Spoiler +
In UG I get shit from everybody because of this, and everybody thinks I'm mafia every game because of it (I was town every time).
Hell, I'm the "WIFOM king" or something there supposedely
I still stand by what I said.
Imagine someone claims RBed or something on Day 4 or something, would you want people discussing WIFOM there?
Even worse, would you want townies thinking there isn't any WIFOM involved?
For instance, take that "If someone claims RBed, then there is a RBer" statement someone said before.
If I hadn't mentioned that it's WIFOM, then townies may have believed it as true, and if scum fake-claimed RBer if there are 3 goons, we could be fucked.
It's better to mention these scenarios as soon as possible when it doesn't have the chance of derailing any discussions, so townies know about it later.
Also, not to be nitpicky here or anything but
+ Show Spoiler +
Ehmm, isn't that WIFOM?
Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before.
Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such.
I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote:
My turn.
This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had.
For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger.
Cephiro:
-This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise:
+ Show Spoiler +
Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him.
Pro-town evidence:
+ Show Spoiler +
In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started.
+ Show Spoiler +
More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this.
Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player).
+ Show Spoiler +
This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through.
[bAnti-town evidence:
+ Show Spoiler +
Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D
-Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind.
On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge.
Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town
My turn.
This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had.
For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger.
Cephiro:
-This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise:
+ Show Spoiler +
Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him.
Pro-town evidence:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with.
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point.
Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other.
If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.)
That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early.
On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die.
(Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.)
Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot....
Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them.
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.
Also...
What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway?
I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with.
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point.
Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other.
If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.)
That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early.
On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die.
(Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.)
Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot....
Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them.
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.
Also...
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood!
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood!
What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway?
In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up.
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up.
More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this.
Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player).
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote:
Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now:
I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other.
About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think?
Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1.
Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion.
I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion.
If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp.
My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours.
@Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back.
Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town.
Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote:
I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now.
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 03:05 Jitsu wrote:
There are reasons for this. And there hasn't been a major reason to post a lot yet. I think I've spoken a fair amount in the posts I have written. Quality of quantity.
There are reasons for this. And there hasn't been a major reason to post a lot yet. I think I've spoken a fair amount in the posts I have written. Quality of quantity.
I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now.
You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town.
Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly.
I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other.
About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think?
Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1.
Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion.
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 05:21 Jitsu wrote:
Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned.
Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned.
I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion.
If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp.
My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours.
@Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back.
This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through.
[bAnti-town evidence:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:
Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example:
On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion.
I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me.
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing.
Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia.
I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here :
+ Show Spoiler +
It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird.
However this morning you posted
+ Show Spoiler +
Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you.
@Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!?
Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing.
Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia.
I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here :
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with.
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point.
Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other.
If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.)
That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early.
On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die.
(Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.)
Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot....
Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them.
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.
Also...
What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway?
I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with.
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point.
Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other.
If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.)
That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early.
On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die.
(Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.)
Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot....
Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them.
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.
Also...
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood!
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood!
What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway?
It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird.
However this morning you posted
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up.
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up.
Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you.
@Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!?
Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example:
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.
On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion.
I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me.
Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D
-Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind.
On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge.
Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town
So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town.
Is this game about finding townies? No.
I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies.
Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie.
Your priority is finding scum.
Now, apparently you forgot about that part.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
@AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku
Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote:
He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better.
Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem.
cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother
sheth tell us what posts are bothering you
Also, where did blurry go?
Show nested quote +
This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else.On January 04 2012 18:07 CookieMaker wrote:
Jab and dodge eh? I like your style.
I'd actually also like his opinion. At the moment I am very content with the way the town is developing. There is clearly a trust developing among several players who employ similar town-favored tactics.
Also, I enjoy watching Sheth stir the pot, but he's kinda leaving the lid off without giving it a chance to boil. I'm interested to see what our current inactives have to say; I think even the majority of the Nords have already piped up.
And now I sleep in the hopes that during the night little elves will come and whisper in the ears of our inactives, and whence they rise an impulse stronger than coffee shall empower their mouse cursors to look at their TeamLiquid PM's and realize that they should be posting in this thread about their regret at not having posted sooner. Tunkeg I'm giving you some leeway because of the timezone comment but I swear to Odin....
Thought of some cute food for thought:
Surely rotten eggs
will indeed be the those whom first
crack in the steamer
On January 04 2012 14:22 Probulous wrote:
With that I am leaving till tomorrow. See you guys at about 08:00 KST tomorrow.
With that I am leaving till tomorrow. See you guys at about 08:00 KST tomorrow.
Jab and dodge eh? I like your style.
I'd actually also like his opinion. At the moment I am very content with the way the town is developing. There is clearly a trust developing among several players who employ similar town-favored tactics.
Also, I enjoy watching Sheth stir the pot, but he's kinda leaving the lid off without giving it a chance to boil. I'm interested to see what our current inactives have to say; I think even the majority of the Nords have already piped up.
And now I sleep in the hopes that during the night little elves will come and whisper in the ears of our inactives, and whence they rise an impulse stronger than coffee shall empower their mouse cursors to look at their TeamLiquid PM's and realize that they should be posting in this thread about their regret at not having posted sooner. Tunkeg I'm giving you some leeway because of the timezone comment but I swear to Odin....
Thought of some cute food for thought:
Surely rotten eggs
will indeed be the those whom first
crack in the steamer
He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better.
Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem.
cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother
sheth tell us what posts are bothering you
Also, where did blurry go?
@AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku
Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action.
What?
If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense.
Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive.
Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads.
I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will.
Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out.
I think you are scum bro.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote:
Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now:
I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other.
About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think?
Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1.
Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion.
I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion.
If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp.
My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours.
@Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back.
Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town.
Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote:
I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now.
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 03:05 Jitsu wrote:
There are reasons for this. And there hasn't been a major reason to post a lot yet. I think I've spoken a fair amount in the posts I have written. Quality of quantity.
There are reasons for this. And there hasn't been a major reason to post a lot yet. I think I've spoken a fair amount in the posts I have written. Quality of quantity.
I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now.
You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town.
Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly.
I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other.
About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think?
Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1.
Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion.
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 05:21 Jitsu wrote:
Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned.
Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned.
I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion.
If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp.
My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours.
@Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back.
Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though.
Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears?
Wtf?
*sigh* this won't get us anywhere.
Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them.
The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game.
*sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to.
I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things).
##unvote: Xeris
##vote: CookieMaker
You know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play.
You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such.
Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that.
If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case.
Also Probulous, something I want to clear:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote:
Your support of discussing WIFOM scenarios was particularly bad. It just distracts town and adds nothing to finding scum.
Your support of discussing WIFOM scenarios was particularly bad. It just distracts town and adds nothing to finding scum.
In UG I get shit from everybody because of this, and everybody thinks I'm mafia every game because of it (I was town every time).
Hell, I'm the "WIFOM king" or something there supposedely
I still stand by what I said.
Imagine someone claims RBed or something on Day 4 or something, would you want people discussing WIFOM there?
Even worse, would you want townies thinking there isn't any WIFOM involved?
For instance, take that "If someone claims RBed, then there is a RBer" statement someone said before.
If I hadn't mentioned that it's WIFOM, then townies may have believed it as true, and if scum fake-claimed RBer if there are 3 goons, we could be fucked.
It's better to mention these scenarios as soon as possible when it doesn't have the chance of derailing any discussions, so townies know about it later.
Also, not to be nitpicky here or anything but
+ Show Spoiler +
Mafia would not be so stupid as to not post at all and even then we only have at most three inactives (Blurry, Gretorp, Xeris). Are people seriously suggesting that mafia is just not posting?
Ehmm, isn't that WIFOM?
Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before.
Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such.
I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now.
I like you
WIFOM is bad, yes what I wrote was WIFOM but it was hardly necessary to the point I was making. I do not believe that all mafia are lurking, sure people can vote them, I won't be one of them. But I concede your point about me WIFOming. I won't do it again.
Discussing it helps no-one. If we have a situation where this comes up, for example people claiming, we discuss it then. Not now. It clogs up an already busy thread.
I am not a smurf, so don't insinuate that I am. If people think I am dangerous, great. Try and be dangerous too. I don't want to be the only one pushing my reads hard. If you find someone suspicious, go after them hammer and tongs.
What's a smurf?
2 different accounts or something?
No I'm not implying that (also it doesn't really matter), the fact is that you are playing like those other players, and that makes you dangerous in my book.
Ehm, I prefer to discuss WIFOM in the early stages, preferably at the beginning of Day 1 where everybody derps and there is no discussion going on at all, than in the heat of an argument or something on Day 4 or Day 5 should the need arise.
Imagine something happens in a night that makes people talk about WIFOM (maybe a Medic dies and someone claims RBed, or something).
-If we hadn't discussed it before, then people would start doing it at that time. That would take away precious time to catch scum, could interfere with ongoing arguments, etc, specially if we are at LYLO or something
-If we had discussed it before, then as soon as someone mentions anything you tell them "shut up and reread the thread, it was discussed before if you continue we lynch you" and bye bye WIFOM interference.
For instance, if someone claims RBed, and another person says "Wait! He could be scum fake-claiming! bla bla bla" I will instantly shut him up and tell him to reread what I posted earlier.
Also, just so the discussion about WIFOM doesn't become a WIFOM discussion itself (in the sense that it interferes ongoing discussions), let's just stop right here.
Either agree or disagree, we can discuss it in Post-Game or Pre-Game of another game later.
