EPTNewbie Mini Mafia II - Page 15
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
| ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
 We agree that a vote alone tell you nothing. I should have rewritten this "In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find" as "In my land, townie cred only exists from how you scum hunt." In some ways finding scum can be a lucky gut feel. Proving they are scum is not but correctly identifying them depends a lot on how they post. I am trying to make sure that people read the reasons others give for voting. This is both before and after the lynch. I obviously have not been clear and perhaps this should be dropped for now. | ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
 | ||
|
CatsnHats
United States199 Posts
On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote: \ @CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting? Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him. That would leave CookieMaker and Xeris from my original list. They haven't done anything to be removed from it either. Prob's analysis of Cephiro is very well thought out and cited, and your follow-up is logical. But all of this talk back and forth between you too and "what happens if we lynch a green and I thought he was red, what does that make me look like to the town" talk is very circular and frankly unneeded at this point. It's just dead text to me. We should focus on who's the scummiest, not the repercussions of being wrong on your read. Be confident and we'll deal with the effects after the lynch, not before. That being said, despite your circular theoretical talk, at this point I'm confident in your analysis of Cephiro and think he is more of a threat than Gretorp. So ##unvote Gretorp ##vote Cephiro | ||
|
CatsnHats
United States199 Posts
| ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them? Can we try to agree on something :p This just puts you into a WIFOm situation where you end up trading a DT for one mafia. I don't like that trade. DT should stay hidden. | ||
|
Jitsu
United States929 Posts
On January 05 2012 13:53 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok, because we have two good reads on scum CatsNHats and Cephiro, I'd like to talk about something else until they come back. There is a chance there is a detective. There is a chance there is a medic. If you are the detective, you should NOT choose the person who you think will die during the night. You should pick someone who you'd like to know about and isn't likely to be killed soon, and who would really help town to know about. If you are the medic, you should choose the few people who you think mafia might want dead on this night and WIFOM in between them. However this night you have an advantage, and you might for future nights as well. Mafia isn't sure you exist. The best % they have is that if they have a roleblocker, there's a 50% chance you exist. Because of this, I'd recommend if you exist simply use your ability on who you think is the most townie. Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them? RE: Sheth/DT Reveal I'd be much more content with a DT breadcrumbing evidence and reads/reveals in the thread. That way if he dies, we can go back and look at his filter's to gain insight. Of course, if the DT we're to come up for some reason (mafia claiming they are DT, ect. ect.) than the medic obviously has discovered his core role. | ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
| ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
I hate it when people get that wrong and I just did it. For shame  | ||
|
Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
Look forward to reading your post when I wake up Andre. Keep posting Duran! And probulous we can agree on some things I'm sure :D! | ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 05 2012 14:20 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok, well I'm going to sleep now. I wasn't completely sure if the DT for one mafia was a good trade or not, so I brought it up to see everyone's reactions. I am leaning its probably good, if they have some other confirmed townies for sure. And this will all changed when we learn whether someone was RB'ed during night. (Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out). I want to hear more on that, and our cases from our lurkers. Look forward to reading your post when I wake up Andre. Keep posting Duran! And probulous we can agree on some things I'm sure :D! Why Sheth  Just when you are looking good you write something that comes across really scummy. You are also making the same mistake I originally did, here are the setup options. Set Up: 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town They can have a roleblocker with no blue roles. It just means that if someone is roleblocked, there are either no power roles or both DT and Medic. No point speculating now. I know you are heading to bed but who are your top 3 scum reads, please before tomorrow morning. Can we got a vote count please? | ||
|
CatsnHats
United States199 Posts
| ||
|
gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 05 2012 13:51 Probulous wrote: Oh dear, both of you at the same time. The point is that if I find some scummy and they turn out to be wrong. Read the analysis. Of course as town you want to prove someone is scum by nailing them to the wall if you are town. You would do it less conclusively if you were scum. You tell the difference by the analysis, not by the vote. That is all I am trying to say, because people can easily get this impression that if you make a huge post calling someone out you cannot be unintentionally wrong. Of course you have to reread the thread, read his filter, and read his analisis for his vote. But you can't say that this method, AND the conclusion are the same whether the flip is red or green/blue (which you implied by saying that the flip said nothing about you). Also, of course the flip inherently, in itself, and taken out of context doesn't say anything about anyone, unless there's an open setup with 2 blue claims and the flip is of one of them. I am not implying that if he flips town you shouldn't find me suspicious. On the contrary I am saying that if he flips town you should re-read the analysis and make up your mind based on that. I can't get someone lynched on my own, I have to convince people. If a townie gets lynched it cannot only be my fault, other must have voted too. How do you tell the scum? Through their reasons for voting, mine is my analysis. That is all I am trying to say, people's votes can give you a feel but they can also lead you to make assumptions that are wrong. Be careful! Well, I thought you were implying the opposite (read above). Also yeah, let's just drop it for now. Also, I may have to disagree with that guide just a tiny bit regarding semantics: Now, what if by some miracle, Youngminii was lynched and flipped green, or worse, vigilante? What would that have said about Foolishness? Think hard and carefully here, because this is a logic issue that really has plagued the town in so many TL games, especially this one. At its core is the question: what does "lynching for information" actually mean? The lynch outcome alone would have said nothing about Foolishness! If Foolishness is veteran, how does he have any definite knowledge of what Youngminii is? He doesn't, therefore he can only do his best and try to figure out YM's role from the tools he has. That in itself does not distinguish him from Godfather Foolishness one bit. The key distinction between the two is to look at how he got Youngminii lynched and his overall play, not that he got Youngminii lynched. The latter fact, while not entirely irrelevant, is nowhere near sufficient enough on its own to warrant a lynch (and everyone knows if YM had popped up vigi Foolishness would've been autokilled the next day). Thus it would be nonsensical to lynch YM because you think it will give the most information (the information is next to useless). The only reason to lynch YM, or virtually anyone ever, is to kill mafia. That's it. Saying "If player X is town, he doesn't know what Y will flip" is not logically the same as saying "If Y flips, you don't know if X is town". Easy counterexample is having 2 DT counterclaims, and X votes for the one that says he got a vanilla check from X. Without taking mechanics into account, then, well, you have to rely on the analysis stuff again. | ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 05 2012 14:45 CatsnHats wrote: For the record, I guess it is possible that Jitsu, Sheth, and Prob are the three mafia trying to pressure me from the beginning into voting for a target of their choice. I find it highly unlikely, however, that all three of you would be so vocal and hold such a majority of the spotlight, as this would certainly be a risky play. So I feel good about the vote switch. I just wanted to get this thought out there. Again, don't tell us who you think is town, who are the mafia? If you don't think Sheth, Jitsu and myself are mafia, why cast suspicion on us? You're seemingly convinced that both CM and Cephiro are mafia based off of other people's analysis. Who is the third mafia? | ||
|
gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 05 2012 14:43 Probulous wrote: Why Sheth Just when you are looking good you write something that comes across really scummy. You are also making the same mistake I originally did, here are the setup options. Set Up: 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town They can have a roleblocker with no blue roles. It just means that if someone is roleblocked, there are either no power roles or both DT and Medic. No point speculating now. I know you are heading to bed but who are your top 3 scum reads, please before tomorrow morning. Can we got a vote count please? If someone is RBed (again, take the WIFOM I mentioned earlier into account), then if YOU are the DT, YOU know there's a medic, since the only possible setup with both a RBer AND a DT is the 1st one (which coincidentally also has a Medic). He says "Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out". He's clearly speaking to the DT here. I thought that was pretty apparent. Also, I suggest everybody keeps a notepad or something open with all the votes/suspicions/important events/thoughts and stuff. I know I do, and it will come very handy to you guys. Also, if you can't reread the thread, or do a simple CTRL+F with "##" search to figure out the vote tally, then it means you aren't really putting that much effort into the game (which is odd from you, so I guess you are just being lazy or something now, or trying to gauge someone's reaction or something). | ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
As of now my lynch preference is Cephiro > CatsnHats / CookieMaster I am happy to lynch any of them. If someone can put together a really strong case for someone else, I will read and consider it, but it would have to be water tight for me to change. Sorry but timezones screw me over and I am only one vote anyway. | ||
|
CatsnHats
United States199 Posts
On January 05 2012 14:53 Probulous wrote: Again, don't tell us who you think is town, who are the mafia? If you don't think Sheth, Jitsu and myself are mafia, why cast suspicion on us? You're seemingly convinced that both CM and Cephiro are mafia based off of other people's analysis. Who is the third mafia? I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again. | ||
|
GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
Current Votecount! Gretorp: Tunkeg Cephiro: Probulous, Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats CookieMaker: Gonzaw CatsnHats: Jitsu, Cookiemaker With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. | ||
|
CatsnHats
United States199 Posts
| ||
|
Blurry
Switzerland125 Posts
On January 05 2012 12:30 gonzaw wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote: Part 2: (taking a long time to write this) I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates 7: Xeris Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum. 8: Gretorp Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum. 9: Gonzaw Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town. 10: Me I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. 11: Probulous Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him. 12: CatsNHats Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral. Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far. Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence? Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of? If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not? Also: + Show Spoiler + I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. Isn't this kind of obvious? Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so? I posted in the same format as Cephiro because I'm new to this and I'm trying to pick up on how this game is played. Thus you will see me emulate some things that other players will do or how they format their analysis. This won't be the first time you will see this. Solid Candidates: Gretorp, Cookiemaker I would probably rather lynch Gretorp because he hasn't said anything To your last point: This is a newbie game, maybe its not obvious. I just want to make sure that people know to claim a RB. | ||
| ||
