EPTTL Mafia XXXIX - Page 126
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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sinani206
United States1959 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town! | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
During the previous day I posted about how I was suspicious of kita. I have done a lot more thinking on it and I am 100% sure now that kita is mafia. First I will briefly summarize the points I used before. 1) During the biggest and most hard fought lynch of the game, day 2 amber vs cth, kita voted for cth. Not only did he vote for cth but he voted late in the day when it was tied 6-6. It was extremely important for mafia to win this lynch and we already know one mafia member, GGQ, voted for cth late in an attempt to save amber. In fact GGQ's vote was just 45 min after kita's. Also consider that earlier in the day kita had said he was suspicious of amber yet he still voted for cth. You might think voting for sinani on day 3 would somewhat clear him, but look at when exactly he voted. He voted for sinani when it was 7-4 in favor of EM with sandroba leading the charge to get him lynched. Kita knew that he would be under heavy suspicion after being on the wrong side of the amber lynch. So all he had to do was vote for sinani late that way A) he wouldn't be linked to voting to lynch another townie and B) it wasn't a big risk because at the time it looked like EM was going to be lynched anyway. 2) Despite what kita says the godfather IS more likely to be an experienced player. Look back through past games 9/10 times the godfather is a vet. Kita and ILJ are the only 2 vets left. It is much much more likely for kita to be gf than conversion, elmizzit, myself, db when it is all either our first or 2nd games. 3) Kita is a good experienced player who people feel is town and yet he is still alive. First time players like forumite and varpulis are being killed off while kita is still around. The forumite kill is especially telling. Forumite was campaigning non stop to have orgolove the townie lynched. Yet mafia killed forumite because at the time the only people that were considered pro town were kita and him. It makes so much more sense for mafia to kill kita who was perceived as a pro town vet than forumite who was a 1st time player campaigning hard to lynch a townie. And now I will discuss my new points which are even more damning of kita. 4) His analysis against jaminz was bullshit and was only done to further mafia goals. His first argument was that jaminz was playing completely different this game than in previous games. This is completely false, while jaminz was active in newbie mini mafia for one day, look at mafia XXXVIII. That game was of comparable size to this one and had a mix of vets and new players. During that game jaminz lurked as a townie for almost the entire game, very similar to how he played in this one. Kita played a big role in that game and he should know this. He also criticized jaminz's posts saying in the previous games they were much more detailed and now he is playing the newbie lurker card. But actually go through and look at jaminz's posts. + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2011 11:36 jaminz wrote: I’ve been pretty inactive over the past few days, but I caught up this morning, and have decided I’m going to vote for: Eternalmisfit First of all, let’s look at his voting record: Day 1: -Votes Kurumi (turned out to be green, but was suspicious so this is totally understandable) Day 2: -Votes Sandroba, who, based on his scum-hunting, I see as pro-town and a good target for mafia. -Follows up this vote with a switch to Cthsasza when there was a close race between Cthsasza and Amber[Light], who turned out to be mafia. This would be an obvious move for mafia to make in order to save one of their own. Even before looking at any posts, this is a fairly suspicious voting record. Early on he made a spreadsheet that listed possible connections between players. This looks helpful on the surface, but I think it’s a pretty good way to just act like you’re helping people without having to really say anything. Look at the quality and substance of a post, not aggregate numbers of who is accusing/defending who. + Show Spoiler + On May 09 2011 04:38 Eternalmisfit wrote: Again, Chaoser conveniently drops Sandroba off the list even though Amber and Sandroba have equal votes at this point (of which chaos13's vote seems as bandwagon-ish as it can be). Having said that, despite my misgivings with Chaoser and Sandroba, I do agree that the vote is way too fragmented and with 10 people yet to vote, mafia can easily make last minute votes to influence the lynch. I would agree with focusing on these three in my opinion. If I were mafia, I think this list would make total sense. You have an easy scapegoat (Cthsazsa), a scum-hunter (Sandroba), and a guy you’d that’d make you look suspicious if you didn’t include (Amber[light]). Out of the three of these, I feel like the other two are town (based on the close race between Amber[light] and Cthsazsa. + Show Spoiler + On May 09 2011 05:48 Eternalmisfit wrote: Let me recap the events of last night. You started off with a FoS on Amber which was followed by Sandroba's rather quick jump from redtooth onto Amber. At the point where I first pointed Sandroba seemed suspicious, a bandwagon seemed to be forming against Amber. Several others started stating Amber seemed a little scummy without backing it up with any analysis. If I had not raised my suspicions on Sandroba, a similar bandwagon to the one on Kurumi would have formed on Amber. Even if Amber flipped green/blue after a lynch, it would be hard to pinpoint any scum strongly since a large number of townies would have been mixed in with the scum (like what happened with Kurumi). At this point, even if the lynch of Amber goes ahead and he flips town, it will be quite clear who all are suspicious. As to why Mafia would want Amber dead, I (and also several others in this thread) have got a potential blue read from Amber. Getting a blue lynched would be a big victory for scum at this point since town already lost 2 blues on Night1. As for my case against Sandroba, I have stated it before and do not see the necessity of restating it again. A defense of Amber. I shouldn’t have to explain why that’s suspicious. Later posts: I can’t see a reason why he’d claim to be a vanilla townie. It’s a dumb roleclaim, and just makes me even more suspicious of him. Claiming seems like a desperation move when you’re trying to get the focus off of yourself. If you’re town, you should be more worried about finding scum than dying. + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2011 08:42 Eternalmisfit wrote: Firstly, regarding your other post, I stated clearly that I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba as I was convinced that he was scum more than you. However, a few people stated towards the end of the day that I should take a stand between the two of you and thus I voted for you. If I was scum and knew Amber was scum, why wouldn't I have voted for Cthsazsa long before that point in order to increase the lead between Amber and Cthsazsa instead of focusing on Sandroba (it was clear that he was not going to be voted at some time before that). As for ilovejonn's accusations and anlaysis. Point 1: Non-important as it was just A FoS Point 2: I cant even count how many PbP analysis had been on Day1. Interesting you pick apart each of my posts the same way I did for Kurumi and then claim I am scum for that. Point 3: The strategy of voting a person likely to be mod-killed was something I proposed in Surpirsingly normal mini mafia in case the town didnt reach a consensus well and it worked out decently there. It is the same logic I applied there. Point 4: I voted for Kurumi since he posts seem to focus on derailing town discussion and not because his posts were bad in grammer/hard to follow. Also, there was no content in his spam posting Point 5: I was of the opinion Irish is a reasonable lynch target as well. If you see the post I was referring to, redtooth made a specific argument for Irish and thus, I was replying in context of Irish. I still believed Kurumi was a better lynch target at that point. Point 6: I posted later that I got busy at work and thus will be unable to make the post. It is interesting that someone who claims about lower activity due to real life stuff use the same argument to paint someone else as scum. Point 7: Spreadsheet - If making a spreadsheet showing who voted/FoS/defended whom makes me scummy, I don't know what to respond that with. Also, at this point, I would recommend that if someone is putting a vote on someone (be it me or someone else), please make a case or argument as to why you are voting for that person. Despite me being wrong or right, I have always posted as to why I voted for someone unlike a lot of people who either made bandwagon votes or voted w/o posting any explanation at all. In any case, quite a few people are missing from thread completely today and I would like to hear their opinion/take on the discussion. Them being: VarpuliS, Kenpachi, jaminz, Conversion, and sinani. Holy crap. Did you really just spend this much time defending yourself? I don’t see a reason any town member would find it worth it to spend that much time defending themselves. Yes, make a quick defense, that’s fine. But to go point by point seems a little excessive to me. I don’t think there’s a need for town players to do this, but it would obviously be necessary for mafia. + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2011 08:22 Eternalmisfit wrote: Interesting that you say so since I posted my reasons here. First analysis Then, I also clarified when you raised a question here and here: 1 2 Also, you read those posts very well since you questioned me on the initial analysis (to which I replied) and said I was building a case against sinani206 here: Forumite's post Whether you agree with my analysis or not, I believe I have posted my suspicions more coherently than Sinani's agruments against me. I also find it suspicious that you choose to ignore what you clearly read and commented on and summarized my vote as I am not 100% convinced that he's mafia but among the people I suspect, he is the most likely one. I am going to my reads on different players as well since it is quite likely I will end up getting lynched. Also, I won't be on again till much later. Town reads Sandroba - for obvious reasons at this point. Kenpachi - for obvious reasons at this point. DropBear - Townie claim, general posting, and tying himself so closely with myself. At this point, if I flipped red, he is nearly #1 target for next lynch. scum reads Sinani - voting patterns suggest that he is either disinterested townie or scum. It is unlikely that he is disinterested townie based on my above analysis but it is not a 100% read. Ilovejonn - If you leave aside the fact that he raised suspicion on me (which is why he is not being considered at the moment), he has shown rather scummy behavior i.e. suggesting he always gets town, claimed blue read on Amber (would suggest asking him why he thought so), weak FoS on me on Day2 start, trying to gain town cred based on a dead man's read. Conversion and Elmizzit - Textbook examples of posting w/o contributing. They also seem to be good at making themselves not noticeable. In fact, I don't recall anyone having analyzed their posting. Suspicious reads - not necessarily scummy jaminz - Missing from thread in general. Vote 1 was inexplicable since he knew Killer was Blue but still voted for him. Vote 2 was accompanied by contradictory reasons. He votes for Amber early so that is why I don't get a clear scum read but that might have been an attempt to bus Amber. redtooth - sudden decline in activity. Lot of people have been wrong in their votes (hell, I am a perfect example for it) but very few have shown such a sudden decline in activity. orgolove - He never explained why he switched his vote from Redtooth->Chaoser->Kurumi on Day1. His Day2 vote was on Amber which I why I am hesistant on this as a scum read. Null Reads Kitaman VarpuliS Impervious - mostly due to lack of sufficient posts to analyze Mig I am confused on my reads about Forumite, AirBladeOrange, Cthsasza, and Chaos13 but it is mostly a combination of mixed signals and gut feelings so I am not posting them here. This post gave me a bit of a pro-town vibe as he does some analysis, but he still spends a large amount of the post defending himself. That bothers me. Thus, I’m voting for Eternalmisfit. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 10:54 jaminz wrote: I’ve changed my mind about chaoser for the most part and tend to think he’s more town than scum at this point. His posts have been constructive, and he’s done some good analysis so far. I didn’t like how Karumi was posting before, as I think a lot of it just ended up confusing everyone. He seems to have stopped that so far, whether that’s from not being able to check the thread or through conscious effort is hard to say. I think he may have realized he was somewhat close to getting lynched and decided whatever little game he was playing was doing more harm than good. I guess we’ll have to see how he continues to post. I think the case against Irish_Punk13 has been the strongest so far. He had no reason to say that Karumi’s posts were good/to defend him. There was no evidence from Karumi’s posts that would lead anyone to believe they are helpful unless he’s seeing something in them that I’m not. For this reason I think the actual defense of the weird posting is more scummy than the actual weird posts themselves. I understand why people are suspicious of AirbladeOrange, but I feel like what he said wasn’t that horrible of a thing to say, was it? This is my 4th game of mafia now, so I understand why it’s bad to say its fine to just go and lynch someone even if they might be town, but I feel like there are other candidates out there who would be better lynch targets. I don’t really understand why Jackal is tunneling Cthsazsa so hard, but I guess it’s probably just to try to get a reaction out of people. I don’t really understand why he picked Cthsazsa when there were better candidates in my eyes. I guess it could have just been random. I don’t really see the harm in it other than the fact that maybe the aggression could have been put to better use somewhere else (maybe redtooth since he was suspicious earlier but hasn’t posted much recently?). I did want to mention some thoughts about KillerSOS. So far, he has 49 posts in the thread, and I’ve seen only one that even attempts analysis. In pretty much everyone of his posts all he’s doing is agreeing with other people about who they’ve suspected. He posted briefly about his thoughts on Jackal, Cthsazsa, and chaoser, and decided that chaoser is the most suspicious because he posted a lot in the beginning then (seemingly) dialed back later on. His posts don’t really seem to have much substance to them. He’s definitely suspicious for me. If I had to pick someone to vote for right now, it’d likely be between Irish_Punk13 and KillerSOS. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 12:02 jaminz wrote: I've been gone for a while, but I'm more or less back now : ) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems the case for voting for Amber[LighT] stems from his big post about being great at scum-hunting, and then his subsequent failure to post any real analysis, coupled with the fact that he’s a veteran player. Do I have that right? I definitely don’t get a strong town vibe from him (lack of analysis, lack of opinions, etc.) but I’m also having a bit of trouble being convinced that he’s scum. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 06:17 Amber[LighT] wrote: I'm trying to understand your posts because you seem to do a little flip flopping. You seem nervous to challenge anything Chaoser has said because of his "vet" status. You are very suspicious of Chaoser on page 15 [see initial quote], but now all of a sudden Chaoser decided to push against Kurumi just enough for you to resist attacking him [see 2nd quote]. I think this might have been a TL mafia first to create a campaign against a player because of posting habits on other parts of the forum. I'd like to believe that people are capable of wearing many hats. One of those hats is used in mafia, while the others are used elsewhere, when appropriate. From a first look I would say Chaoser wants to come in as a town leader but I don't really agree with the methods he used, though they are a bit convincing. Back to you Airblade... My question is do you think creating a chaoser vs/with kurumi vision is going to get us somewhere? You say either they could be together or they could be against each other, but you don't really elaborate on how to figure this out. Also are we going to take the route of weeding out bad/inactive townies or rely on posting for the first lynch? We need to be really careful about lynching habits. I remember during the very first mafia games we would go for inactives and those were actually the players with blue roles. This is a problem though as it's not really the towns fault, but instead the people who have these blue roles that need to keep active. Lynching a blue is more painful to watch than anything else in mafia. Do we have an updated list of the inactive players? I saw one a few pages back and I'll bump it in my next post.... If you're new please contribute, ask questions, and start being critical! Early on he posts some general thoughts about the game, and seems to generally just be asking questions. I understand that a popular scum strategy is to ask questions/get opinions from others while pretending to, or even completely failing to, give their own views. This post looked fairly harmless to me, but I could see how it could be scum behavior. + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote: I'm pretty sure we should save the day vig ability to find the GF or a roleblocker. I was entering the game assuming that the day vig was the role block counter anyway. I don't know if I want to bite on your analysis of Chaoser Redtooth, but I'm a bit weary of someone that comes in swinging on the first day with this much information about a certain player. Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis. For this reason I want to see how well your analysis has been leading us. If he flips red then I think it would be safe to assume that Irish Punk is red, Chaoser is green, and opponents of his analysis should be considered for lynches. If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody. Don't think joining a bandwagon is going to keep you in the background if you're lurking. Day 1 lynches are without a doubt the toughest to call, but I am going to vote for Kurumi tonight. I feel like he's more of a solid lynch candidate and his flip will give us more information about Irish punk. Also don't let the numbers dictate who is scum and who is pro town. I would like to remind the younger players that some of us have jobs and sleep at normal times. I play TL mafia from 5:30 - 11:30 my time and I have to catch up from a lot of pages of content/spam, even when I can read while at work. My posting habits have not changed during this game. If you didn't notice my posts, you have easy access to them via my profile. My analysis compounds over the days and I will be focusing on certain players once more information is obtained. I actually began to get a slight town read from him based on this post. I thought his views on the Kurumi situation was very calm, logical, and thought through. He didn’t immediately advocate for an immediate FoS on chaoser if Kurumi flipped green. If he were scum, it’d be easier to push for a chaoser lynch (assuming chaoser is town – we don’t really know that though). He could pushing immediately for chaoser would be a dumb thing to do since he’s a veteran, but going into that just starts a big WIFOM argument. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 00:27 Amber[LighT] wrote: Just putting these here before Chaoser goes on his anti-Amber campaign. I would like to stress that Chaoser is tunneling me. And after Redtooth posted in response to this post I gave a little clarification about my justification for lynching Kurumi. I was not just voting for kurumi because everybody else was doing it. This is probably going to be the last time I correct peoples ignorance. Please stop tunneling Chaoser. I'm not trying to point my FoS onto you, yet. This is his most suspicious post in my opinion. He’s being very defensive about Chaoser’s “tunneling.” I agree that Chaoser is being aggressive, but I think to call it tunneling, and then to post a defense of himself while not contributing any analysis is pretty suspicious. He posts a vague threat at the end, which adds to my suspicion. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 00:50 Amber[LighT] wrote: Some important posts to look at: Jackal58: + Show Spoiler + On May 07 2011 08:15 Jackal58 wrote: Alright then. A little free time. Chaoser/Redtooth - 1 of them is scum. Would be worth a lynch of Chaoser and if he does flip green vig Redtooth. I'm leaning more towards Chaoser being the scummy one. sandroba - scum GGQ - scum Cthsazsa - scum Eternalmisfit - scum Chaos 13/ Irish Punk 13 - Leaning much more towards Irish. He's a very active player. Now absent. That's the way I see it at the moment. Sorry if I didn't submit the correct form. I couldn't find a "Tunneling Request" form On May 07 2011 08:17 Jackal58 wrote: I'm not a fan of lynching people because they appear wierd or different or stupid. But I can understand it. I do guarantee you that at least 4 on his lynch were scum. Hell maybe more. On May 07 2011 06:55 Jackal58 wrote: First chance I've had to read this since my post this morning. I got as far as Redtooths requirements for FoSing somebody. Sorry dude. I'm not filling out a form letter to satisfy your ego. Don't like it. Lynch me. I may not be able to go through all of this before some time on Sunday. I'll be reading but I probably won't have much heart to put into it for the next day or so. My dad is dying and my thoughts and duties are with him and my family atm. Don't replace me Node. This is my distraction from the real world. On May 06 2011 23:31 Jackal58 wrote: But as town you wanted him dead? But if you were scum you would never want him dead? But as town you did? But as scum you wouldn't? So since you voted for him you're obviously town right? Because obvscum would want him alive? But you have no problems with voting for obvtown? It's not rape. It's surprise sex. Enjoy it scummy. On May 06 2011 00:50 Jackal58 wrote: + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2011 00:30 chaoser wrote: @redtooth Except I have focused on him? There's a certain thing called reading the air. I've already posted my thoughts on Irish, barely anyone responded to it and everyone seems to find it better to lynch Kurumi. I already consider both of them to be scum based upon behavior (Kurumi says to stop talking about me and 100% supports a lynch of Irish, AO accuses Kurumi, Irish comes in and chainsaw defends Kurumi with AO, Kurumi IMMEDIATELY switches votes onto AO) In this situation, whether we vote Irish or Kurumi, doesn't matter since 1) Both of them are acting scummy 2) Both lynches will be telling of the other person's alignment. The reason I push Irish's lynch is because I am more confident about his lynch over Kurumi's (70% sure vs 60% sure). Go reread KillerSOS' posts. People think he is scummy because of his line "Why would I want to be lynched, I don't want to die." Go reread his posts and decide if he's just a simple newbie or red. Either way, we can discuss his lynch tomorrow, after the night. About Irish. At the end of the day, whether you think he is mafia or not, he hasn't come back yet to defend himself at all. He has yet to explain his "Kurumi has made excellent analysis statements" and he has yet to explain his quick sudden suspicions onto AO. He literally popped in, said almost nothing, and then hasn't posted since. You're damn straight I find that scummy as fuck. I quote this line way too much but Ace, when he was helping coach Team Melee said: About Kurumi. Kurumi is tied to Irish and you can see in his crazy convoluted posting that he's still trying to push the lynch off Irish. No where in that post does he address the Irish issue. He doesn't explicitly defend him but he does insinuate that both of them are town. He passes off all the conversation on them as "scum forming an easy bandwagon". He states: but previous to this stated: So did he PLAN to act as an easy target to draw mafia out to band wagon him or was it just mistakes? He's wishy-washy here. Either state that your posting was planned all along or that your posting was "mistakes", stick to a statement, not both. Could be all that. Could be just overwhelmed noobs. If Irish is scum he'll out himself. Cthsazsa already has. His response to my poke was over the top and quite extended. His post I poked him about was a pure scum agenda. His response was pure scum response. He constantly evades the issue I poked him on and shifts it to a not 'knowing the definitions of lurker/inactive" That's not the item in his post I FoSed him on and I told him that. Yet he still tries to deflect back to that issue. He's scum. I am voting for him and urge you all to do the same. I may not be back before day is over. I have to travel to Dallas. So I make my vote now. Aidnai: + Show Spoiler + On May 07 2011 03:30 aidnai wrote: FoS? Vote? might we expect a fullblown analysis with an accusation soon? I must say I look forward to it if you do it. Amber is certainly a scummy player and I plan to push his lynch today, but I can't tell if you're serious about him from this post. On May 07 2011 02:51 aidnai wrote: dropbear, think how much better the thread would be to read if people went by redtooth's advice. It is protown. Please don't fight it. The problem with the thread yesterday was that everyone was posting analysis, and (almost) all of it was half-assed and not even worth responding to. Therefore nobody was responding, so none of the cases gained traction (except kurumi t.t). In this situation, scum is not pressured, scum can make weak arguments, scum can wagon freely, scum can lurk without being punished. If everyone is held to high standards, how are the scum going to contribute? if they try to do real analysis, it's either fake (therefore usually weak as well) or a bus. BTW, you are one of the shining examples in the thread so far, i doubt redtooth had you in mind when he wrote this stuff. And he answered your questions already, read his posts again. redtooth's initiative is a pro-town take over of the thread, get on board all townies. On May 06 2011 08:44 aidnai wrote: i know, right? I'm going out for the evening, and since Irish hasn't posted yet, I will not remove my vote. Of the three vote leaders, I think Irish is most likely to be scum, followed by cthsazsa, followed by kurumi. See you guys later. On May 06 2011 07:49 aidnai wrote: This was a pretty good post cthsazsa, you should do more like this. I'd like to hear more opinions on cthsazsa from kita and chaoser. So far, I agree with jackal's original reasons for pressuring, but i kind of have a null read on cthsazsa's response. The fact that he's done very little in the thread other than one-liner spam defense + a brief spat with conversion is a big strike against. But I do like his post on conversion... I'll just state this right now, I will be very surprised if kurumi does in fact flip red, and I wish sheeping townies would move their votes. There is no reason for a scum to attract attention the way that kurumi has been doing. GGQ's point about serejai is moot. There are key differences between these cases -- serejai was a hardcore lurker, kurumi is quite active; serejai was (and is) a big troll and is also demonstrably quite clever as seen by his posts elsewhere on the site, kurumi that I know of has no history on this site to make a similar conclusion; kurumi has been interacting with the thread, addressing current issues etc, serejai only did this on perhaps one occasion. There is also the language issue that makes kurumi's posts seem stranger than they actually are. And yes kurumi has made some troll posts, but that can be explained by frustration. Serejai made troll posts just because. On May 06 2011 05:59 aidnai wrote: There is room for differences of opinion, but I would 100% rather lynch someone useless (kenpachi, takuna, lyter, etc) day 1 as opposed to a vet. On May 06 2011 04:29 aidnai wrote: First, to address your line of thinking: lynching for information is a bad idea, that is not why we are lynching either player. Your situations and hypothetical ideas are in fact wrong, if we lynch either player, we will not get any reliable information for the next lynch. We get at most a piece of evidence that we'll be able to factor into a decision. Kurumi is probably town, based on two things: - thread response to pressure on him (easy bandwagon) - His posts are extremely un-'guarded'. Meaning, it seems clear that the last thing on his mind is trying his hardest to look like a town, which is actually the first thing on the mind of a scum. In this sense, yes, it is true that the most 'obvious' scum are often bad townies. Irish_punk on the other hand: - is ignored as a bandwagon target - his posts (what few there are) are in fact guarded, and now he's too scared to show his face around here. Please consider switching your vote. As I consider myself a player who could stand some improvement, I'm interested in seeing you differentiate killerSOS from kurumi and AO. I currently am reading AO Kurumi and Killer all as noobtownies, AO less noob than the others. This seems like an extremely weird question to ask, but i'm interested in the answer to this as well. :/ I find it suspicious that all you have done so far is defend irish and attack kurumi. Kurumi is in fact an easy target, so i can hardly blame anyone for wagoning him, but if that is the ONLY thing you have done, it looks fishy. FOS chaos13. added in Lyter for you. Would also like to add conversion to this list. Players like beneather and amber have been around long enough that I doubt they will be easily vote-pressured into appearing. I hope you'll consider using your vote elsewhere. When I read sandroba asking chaoser for help, I understood that to mean that Sandroba looks up to chaoser. Asking for chaoser's opinion can help sandroba validate his own opinion about conversion and at the same time make a new opinion--about chaoser! I can understand this because I think and behave the same way in thread. When Chaoser didn't really buy the analysis, sandroba dropped it for a while, imo because he respects chaoser's opinion a lot. But he still brought it up later looking for more support, showing that he actually meant what he said in the first place. All of this is consistent from my point of view with sandroba being a greenie. Imo, it's too early to lynch a vet. Your point is absolutely valid however, and I would like discussion of this to continue tomorrow, and if we are able to flip irish today it will be that much more meaningful. Please consider changing your vote. On May 06 2011 03:38 aidnai wrote: I think Lyter, Conversion, Amber, and rising_phoenix are all good lynch targets that haven't gotten much discussion yet. (For the record though, amber has looked scummy to me pretty much every time I've played with him-_-.) Do you really not find anyone at all scummy or at least scummier than chaoser? Also it seems you misunderstood something about PMs -- the scum team can most definitely PM each other. The single most scummy thing that irish_punk has done is go AFK exactly when the heat was turned on. This is even worse for him since the heat was, as you have pointed out, not a strong case at all. I cannot discount this possibility because it is exactly how I dodged a lynch once upon a time. Your maths game is biased by the way, sorry i didn't play along -_- Here's my own version: -is it more likely that a noob townie would skip the thread after facing a weak accusation, or a noob scum? In my experience, the noob is much more likely to respond with defense and increased activity. But a noob scum would have a team to advise that a better course of action is to lay low and let the thread move on. I believe that irish_punk is active lurking right now. His excuse for not posting was checking his other game, which means he's still online, still able to read this thread, he just doesn't want to post here. If he was a noob town, I seriously doubt he could resist the urge to post some response to this kind of pressure. Last -- I do not understand why you consider him obviously town. You also allude to him giving an 'abundance of information' and not being 'guarded'. Having read his (11) posts, this description does not seem apt, please state your evidence. KillerSOS: **Not much on him. His posts weren't as valuable as the other two imo. + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2011 14:22 KillerSOS wrote: I didn't have a solid target, but you can look back and see that I said he was town. anyways, headed to bed. On May 06 2011 03:43 KillerSOS wrote: That table does bring some interesting things into easier view. First and foremost is that redtooth is defending both Irish and Kurumi, two of the most scummy looking players at the moment. Honestly defending players is worse than attacking at this early stage, unless you are over the top with it. On May 05 2011 13:02 KillerSOS wrote: Because the people who have provided analysis on his posts seem to be the most correct? Cthsazsa posts alot like me... short and numerous. For some reason I feel as though it might be the incorrect method of play, but it is enjoyable to say the least. Again, we have a whole bunch of nothing really. He lays out a few posts he thinks are “important” which are really just posts from the people who died. He doesn’t bother to post any analysis on why he thinks they’re important, however. It’s hard for me to see the reasoning behind leaving out analysis, as I think analysis is always pro-town. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 01:03 Amber[LighT] wrote: His analysis mirrors mine in most cases. I would trust him as a town leader more than Chaoser, and I'll stand by that. Though I will say I don't agree with his posting plan. The idea is genuinely good with intention, but it will choke the town over the next few days. I can't stand by that plan. We share the same frustrations too. As I'm reading over his most recent posts he's also pretty upset with Chaoser and if I'm not reading into his posts too seriously he is suspecting him more than me. I don't know if Chaoser is just trolling vets or is just trying to get us more riled up but it's causing more and more people to consider him as a lynch target. I think this post has a lot of weight to it: Though it makes sense I think strategically his posts would have been irrelevent unless mafia chose to take out Redtooth. It would have made him look incredibly scummy. Think about it from another perspective. If you were mafia and you saw Redtooth accuse Chaoser and chaoser was red, would you still gun down Redtooth to "confirm" him using the WIFOM argument? I think posts at night are more catch 22 than anything else [damned if you do; damned if you don't]. His most recent post confuses me. He took the time and effort to try to defend himself earlier when there were (relatively) few accusations against him, but now that he’s the major lynch target he doesn’t even address the situation? Did I miss a post by him explaining his behavior? I can’t say this is terribly scummy as we chaoser (and others) encouraged him to post analysis, and he’s posting his thoughts on a situation in this post, but it is confusing nonetheless. I’m not going to place my vote on Amber[LighT] for now as I haven’t done enough analysis on other players to compare him with (though I’m working on it and plan to do more before the day cycle ends) but I wanted to mention a few things as well. I’m a bit confused as to why he’s the veteran (other than redtooth) receiving most of the scum-focus in the game so far. I don’t think his posting habits have been drastically different from other players in this game, and I find it interesting that he’s been jumped on so quickly. Jaminz made some long, detailed, well researched, pro town posts, yet kita ignored them in his analysis. And then he uses this post as part of his argument + Show Spoiler + On May 07 2011 12:41 jaminz wrote: Aaaand fuck. I was completely wrong on my analysis of KillerSOS Kita said this post just screams of his guilt but kita is an experienced player he should know that that is a complete non tell. Kita only brought it up because his analysis was weak and he needed something else to smear jaminz with. Kita calls jaminz the godfather even though he knows that more often than not the godfather is an experienced player. He did this so that people wouldn't look closely at the experienced players, like himself, and to try and divert attention from the voting list on cth. Chaoser and sandroba had said we could probably find almost if not all the mafia out of the people who voted for cth. So to try and divert the town from looking closely at the list he creates a distraction and comes up with the ridiculous claim that jaminz is gf. And look at the timing where kita calls out jaminz and ilj. He posts his analysis when everyone is debating between EM and sinani. He did this to try and confuse the town and possibly save sinani. Sandroba even calls him out on it. On May 11 2011 21:48 sandroba wrote: Sorry for the quadruple post but I need further explanation on this. @Kitaman27 So you are saying ilovejonn is scum. I'm sure you realize that if we catch mafia today, mafia are reduce to 1 kp. Explain to me how it is possible for EM to be scum in the scenario where ilovejonn is scum. Also your analysis on jaminz is complete bullshit. It's a common tactic for mafia to introduce more candidates for a lynch, to confuse town. Right now my prime godfather suspect is you. 5) My final point is probably the most important. Throughout the game people have thought kita's posts were pro town. But actually read his posts with this question in mind, does kita actually care if the town wins? The answer is no. Look through kita's posts does he actually push hard for the people he thinks are the scummiest? After his initial analysis of jaminz kita just stops discussing him. Plenty of other people begin doing analysis on jaminz and discussing his posts yet kita barely comments on it. During night 5 I offered to switch last minute to impervious (the original person kita voted for and the one he claimed was most scummy) yet he doesn't try and convince me or anyone else to switch. Before kita votes he will post a small explanation for his vote but then never actively pushes for who he thinks is the scummiest. Because he knew that we were debating between lynching townies and so he wanted to distance himself and not stand out. In fact the last few days where we have only been discussing lynching townies you will see kita hardly discusses anything. And ask yourself has kita really defended anyone this entire game? The previous night he throws up 1 quote in a small defense of AO. But while we are discussing it does kita actually try and save AO at all? The answer is no. And can you find any other instances this game where he has taken a strong stance and actually tried to save someone? Look through his posts in mafia XXXVIII where he was town. Kita was one of the best players that game, constantly taking hard stands and fighting for the people he thought were scummy and trying to save those he thought were town. Kita this game is playing completely different, he is basically active lurking. He has not been arguing for who he thinks is scummiest nor tried to save innocents the entire game. He doesn't care about whether the town wins or not. Jaminz also noticed it and tells us this in his last post. On May 21 2011 10:28 jaminz wrote: I think kitaman is suspicious/scum. He's been pretty actively pushing for me this entire game (which is fine), but his play has been very different than how I've seen him play in other games. He's done a great job of toeing the line between lurking and providing just enough analysis to keep suspicion off of himself. He's also a veteran player, making him a decent candidate for godfather. So look at how weak kitas analysis of jaminz was, look at how he tried to divert attention away from the fact that he was on the wrong side of the most important lynch this game, and look at how kita hasn't actually cared about town winning all game. Kitaman27 is 100% without a doubt the Godfather. | ||
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Node
United States2159 Posts
Day 9 ![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/Popcorn02.jpg) What remained of the town woke to a strange sight, dominating their view and blocking the sky. Overnight, gigantic bleachers had been erected over the town, filled with spectators munching on popcorn, waiting to see who would die and who would live. Unfortunately, somebody had moved Xedat under a heavy beam as it was being placed, and the poor man was horribly crushed.  was the crowd’s response. Xedat the Townie is dead. Dananananana nananananananana nanananananananananaLYLOOOOO!!!! (lylooooo) You have 48 hours to decide upon a lycnh! But be careful, because if another townie is lynched, it’s game over, man! | ||
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Impervious
Canada4166 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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sinani206
United States1959 Posts
was my response. your welcome mig | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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DropBear
Australia4273 Posts
The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1? This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched. This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4273 Posts
On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote: But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments. You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched. This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies. I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game. The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active. I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir! | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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DropBear
Australia4273 Posts
Should we talk about who we think the other one is or leave that until tomorrow? | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
I was somewhat worried you could have been the other mafia but I don't think mafia would give this lynch up so easily when they could clinch the game if we mislynch. So if you side with me and vote kita I think there is virtually no chance that you and kita could both be mafia. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4273 Posts
On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote: Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way? I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change. They voted together yesterday incidentally. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4273 Posts
On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote: Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_- I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town! | ||
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