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ON ELMIZZT
I did analysis on elmizzt on day 3 but it was pretty shitty including misinterpreting two of his posts. With him having caught my eye early and still being alive this late in the game I will try again.
Elmizzt has been very quiet. He has 21 posts on day 1. His activity drastically drops after this, with 21 in the next 6 days and 7 nights combined.
He has 118 posts on TL this week alone and is obviously active due to him replying to kita extremely quickly.
I'm starting to see a few similarities between elmizzt's posting in this game and in Surprisingly Normal Mini 1, in which he was mafia.
These might be a little bit of a reach, I'd like second opinions on whether they are relevant or I'm trying too hard to make them fit.
SNMM 1
When Scholeosis, the other Mafia member, was under extreme heat Day 2 elmizzt refused to discuss his buddy at all.
XXXIX
AO is under pressure today.
On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:On May 26 2011 04:49 DropBear wrote:This is very different to his posts about orgolove. He was rock-solid on orgolove, not so here just a suspicion. Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check. I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn. EBWOP: AO or ilovejonn (unless he wants to lynch himself >.<) I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis  I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight.
On May 26 2011 08:43 elmizzt wrote:
Yea, I've been keeping up. I just really don't have much to say, unfortunately.
In both circumstances he is unwilling to provide solid opinions regarding AO despite the fact that he has obviously been keeping up to date. Assuming AO is scum, this is a similar reaction he had to a teammate being under the pump in SNMM1.
Additionally he has several "lol" posts of little to no input in both games.
There are only two references to elmizzt from confirmed scum players and both are extremely indirect:
GGQ attacking kita who is attacking elmizzt.
sinani lists inactive people on day 2 as being suspicious and neglects to include elmizzt who had 3 posts, all of which were in the strange interaction with kita about him blending in.
On May 08 2011 11:54 elmizzt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 11:53 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:52 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 11:47 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:38 GGQ wrote:On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (: On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:On May 05 2011 08:13 Jackal58 wrote:
[quote]
Scum aren't a threat????
I know where my vote is going.
Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind. Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in... And all you're doing is vaguely questioning people. Post something solid. Heh looks who's talking? You've got one post yourself this cycle. You mentioned you would post your thoughts tomorrow evening. We're still waiting. On May 08 2011 11:38 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (: On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:On May 05 2011 08:13 Jackal58 wrote:
[quote]
Scum aren't a threat????
I know where my vote is going.
Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind. Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in... Yea, I'm not a heavy poster in mafia, but I read everything. And don't you think posting less would be sticking out, and posting more blending in? No, posting less allows you to lurk with the 10 others that have only a handful of posts, including the guy you just voted against, Beneather. Posting more allows us to have a better idea of where you stand and will eventually result in scum slips if you are red. Then why did I stick out to you?  Because I'm looking for scum. Are you concerned about sticking out? Make up your mind. Am I doing a "to good job blending in" or sticking out?
This exchange is still strange to me and as far as I am aware was never really explained.
Defense of AO.
Chooses ilovejonn over AO with no reasoning
ilovejonn, despite stating that he is on night shift and is busy, has almost as many posts as these two combined.
If AO is lynched and flips red, elmizzt is a good person to go after next.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?
I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change.
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I thought EM was mafia because I found other people's analysis to be convincing and the general vibe I got from his posting seemed like he was hiding info for something.
Mig I had a suspicion of a while ago and I don't really remember why. He seems to be better now.
I didn't feel like doing analysis on Kurumi's voting list.
oroglove and redtooth both really turned my off because they each seemed arrogant. Oroglove just stopped posting things he thought were useful and started to do the one liners and "I told you so" type posts. Redtooth did a similar type thing where he seemed to not understand why people didn't see things the way he did, and he seemed to give only chaoser credit. I just felt both were being manipulative.
I'm still undecided on who my top suspects are but Kita is because he is an alive vet and you are because I don't underestimate your ability in this game even though you are a fairly new player. But really I don't have much of a clue right now.
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I suspect that with "you" you mean Dropbear? Of course there is the possibility that Dropbear and kitaman27 are the last two mafia and are winning by manipulating us all into killing each other of.
If you think this is the case then make an analysis of either of them and try to convince us.
Other than that, I don't really see you, AirbladeOrange, survive this day.
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United States22154 Posts
RANDOM EVENT! The Fortress of Activity
A mysterious floating fortress, thrumming with energy has just appeared floating over the village. Its cannons all aim at the town. A booming voice issues a single statement "the player with the least amount of relevant posts in this day cycle will be...terminated. That is all" The cannons slowly take aim at the inactive and lurking townies, focusing on them one at the time and finally coming to rest in a neutral position. Who will be obliterated? In a little under three hours you will find out...
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United States4714 Posts
I read through all of forumite's posts again. I do not believe he checked AO. On day 1 he was one of the few people who actively defended AO, saying he didn't think he was scummy. It seems more likely to me that he would check people he was suspicious of not people he was defending. After that he didn't mention AO again until his post right before he died where he again just mentioned early game. Chaos conversely he just out of nowhere said twice he had a town vibe of while writing lists of people he trusted/suspected, if he had checked AO early I believe he would have listed him as well.
I can't be 100% sure, the only people we can be sure he checked are chaos/sinani/orgolove. There were 2 other nights he could have checked AO but considering he defended him before he could even check people I think he probably chose targets he was more suspicious of.
I am going to put my vote on AO. If there is a strong argument made defending him I might still change but right now I would say he has the most going against him.
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On May 26 2011 17:15 Xedat wrote:
@ilovejonn: Who are your suspects?
Why didn't you do anything except for defending against orgolove?
I didn't do anything but defend against him because I don't want the town to lynch a townie. I also did not like his attitude of "im telling you" and just using voting analysis. It seemed extremely anti-town as he didn't even present a proper post analysis on me but kept voting for me.
Suspects I'm not sure. I've got town reads from you Xedat, and Dropbear though.
Other people I'm not sure about, kitaman27 is a veteran player, but due to my time constraints I have not read his other games as town. He's been on most of the correct lynches however. The other players left I have not mentioned are the most suspicious to me. They could be lurking mafia/Godfather or they could just be bored townie. But even with my time constraints I've more posts than them like Dropbear said. Perhaps they have issues in real life like me though.
elmizzt has voted me based on the semi-vouch from Forumite that AO is town.
On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:On May 26 2011 04:49 DropBear wrote:This is very different to his posts about orgolove. He was rock-solid on orgolove, not so here just a suspicion. Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check. I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn. EBWOP: AO or ilovejonn (unless he wants to lynch himself >.<) I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight.
But what about for me? Did he really go through Forumite's posts?
On May 17 2011 09:27 Forumite wrote:One of sinani206's few big posts, probably a coached post. I´m not sure how to read this one, because of WIFOM. It was posted fairly early, when there was still time to divert the lynch on someone else, to me it´s more likely that scum would discredit a townie than cast suspicions on their own at that stage. I´m fairly certain this makes Ilovejonn Town, but I can´t be sure. + Show Spoiler +On May 14 2011 13:42 sinani206 wrote:ilovejonn This is ilovejonn's list of votes: 1) kurumi2) beneather
cthsaza3) eternalmisfit4) sinani206ilovejonnoroglove Hmm.... So far, 3 greens and a blue. Kurumi bandwagon day 1 and EternalMisfit bandwagon day 3, with no real explanations for either. He is also experienced, so he can't be forgiven for not explaining. Today, first he votes on my bandwagon, then after I defend myself and DropBear accepts the defense, he switches to himself, saying this: Show nested quote +On May 14 2011 04:06 ilovejonn wrote:
I'm townie. Why not lynch for information? We have mislynches at disposal. And what defense do you guys possibly want from me. I've been on all the wrong lynches and have no credibility in this game any more, flipping will probably provide more than what I can say. Why do you first roleclaim townie and then tell the town to lynch you for information? You want us to call a bluff, to believe that you are a Townie that will sacrifice himself for the town, and then leave you alive. But you aren't. You wanted us to leave you alone so that you could stay alive and the Mafia would keep their 2KP. Then, after Varpulis' post: Show nested quote +On May 14 2011 04:40 Varpulis wrote:
It's good policy to lynch scum. If you're town, you should help us lynch scum, not help us lynch you.
Wrong =/= scum. Saying "I give up, just lynch me" makes me very suspicious. orgolove did it, and people aren't discussing him anymore, so you're going to try it too? You post this and switch back to oroglove: Show nested quote +On May 14 2011 05:34 ilovejonn wrote:
I still think orgolove is GF. Check his posts before 1802 and after.
Like people mentioned, he gives us a flawed data sheet to follow (I know it's flawed because I'm townie but managed to accumulate the most points due to a) not switching to Amber because I was away, b) sticking with my analysis on EM which turned out to be wrong.), says that Dropbear and I are top targets based on the point system he made out of thin air, and then when we lynch EM he goes, guys I convinced you soooooo hard that you guys deserve to lose if you don't follow my spreadsheet.
You didn't convince us on anything dude, you laid out information we all could have observed and placed some arbitrary points into it, then said you're disgusted with the town after a mislynch. That's some major convincing you did.
And you guys are right, why waste a vote on myself. I'll use MY vote on who I think is scum. Because you realize that Varpulis is right, you switch to orgolove, to act more like a townie and act like you are trying to kill the scum. But you just use the same arguments against him that everyone else has. Another bandwagon. You realize that this is 3 band wagons you have joined, all without adding to the accusation? I know where my vote is going today. ##Vote: ilovejonn I noted something interesting at the end of that post (bold for emphasis). sinani206 says he was voting on orgolove to seem more town, but orgolove rarely come up in the top of most-scummy lists. I wonder if sinani206 accidentally outed a fellow scum.
What does he think about that? If he voted AO on a semi-vouch I wonder what this is to him. Also, if people think I'm scum. Would sinani (a confirmed scum) ask for a coached post analysis on a team mate? He was going to get lynched, if I was mafia and people switched to me based on the analysis, sinani still would have lost a team member. But if the analysis made people switch and it was on a townie, sinani would've stayed alive for another night AND not lose any mafia members. He was already a prime suspect, the best play for him would've been to save the mafia for at least 1 more night til he gets lynched the next day.
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EBWOP: If he voted me based on a semi-vouch on AO.
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Also note on the sinani analysis. Even if I flipped mafia due to his analysis, his posting behavior would've been far too different. No one would've hit scum right away after a coached post, and he would be bagged as people will say he bussed a team mate with that coached post. Therefore it is certain the post was made on a town player, instead of one of their own.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 27 2011 10:31 ilovejonn wrote:
Other people I'm not sure about, kitaman27 is a veteran player, but due to my time constraints I have not read his other games as town.
Huh? We've played 5+ games together, what do you mean you haven't read my other games? Seems like you're just finding excuses to not commit to an accusation.
On May 27 2011 10:31 ilovejonn wrote:
What does he think about that? If he voted AO on a semi-vouch I wonder what this is to him. Also, if people think I'm scum. Would sinani (a confirmed scum) ask for a coached post analysis on a team mate? He was going to get lynched, if I was mafia and people switched to me based on the analysis, sinani still would have lost a team member. But if the analysis made people switch and it was on a townie, sinani would've stayed alive for another night AND not lose any mafia members. He was already a prime suspect, the best play for him would've been to save the mafia for at least 1 more night til he gets lynched the next day.
"I´m fairly certain this makes Ilovejonn Town, but I can´t be sure." Doesn't exactly scream confidence. Just curious, why do you wait until an hour before the lynch to make a post?
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United States4714 Posts
Well jonn there is the possibility that mafia figured they couldn't save sinani so they wrote the post to try and buy you town cred when you flipped.
But this doesn't really make sense to me.
A) mafia kp was on the line so it would have been in their best interest to target a townie so they chose an easy target (ilj because he was already being tunneled non stop by orgolove and kita had listed him as suspicious)
B) if they were just trying to buy jonn town cred why bother coaching sinani? They could have had sinani make his usually nonsensical analysis and it would have worked the same. But by having it coached and seem reasonable there was a chance it could actually work and they would lynch ilj (which mafia would not want), and it actually did almost work as several people switched to ilj.
After thinking about it I am feeling more and more certain that ilj is town.
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On May 27 2011 10:57 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 27 2011 10:31 ilovejonn wrote:
Other people I'm not sure about, kitaman27 is a veteran player, but due to my time constraints I have not read his other games as town. Huh? We've played 5+ games together, what do you mean you haven't read my other games? Seems like you're just finding excuses to not commit to an accusation. Show nested quote +On May 27 2011 10:31 ilovejonn wrote:
What does he think about that? If he voted AO on a semi-vouch I wonder what this is to him. Also, if people think I'm scum. Would sinani (a confirmed scum) ask for a coached post analysis on a team mate? He was going to get lynched, if I was mafia and people switched to me based on the analysis, sinani still would have lost a team member. But if the analysis made people switch and it was on a townie, sinani would've stayed alive for another night AND not lose any mafia members. He was already a prime suspect, the best play for him would've been to save the mafia for at least 1 more night til he gets lynched the next day.
"I´m fairly certain this makes Ilovejonn Town, but I can´t be sure." Doesn't exactly scream confidence. Just curious, why do you wait until an hour before the lynch to make a post?
I know we've played games together. What I mean is that I've not gone back and read through all those posts to compare to this game. You don't expect me to remember how you play every game right?
That's the point. Forumite's post doesn't scream confidence, neither does his vouch on AO, yet elmizzt decided to vote me instead. Also, I said I would be back to post after 8 pm, and it is already after 8 pm, I did not choose to make it exactly an hour before the lynch. Don't pick on this non-sense, I've been posting in game about how busy I am with night shifts and yet I can do more than some people in this game.
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It works out that I was killed, since I have been busy the past few days and didn't have reliable internet access.
Good game everyone active players :p
Give em hell town.
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On May 27 2011 02:55 AirbladeOrange wrote:
I thought EM was mafia because I found other people's analysis to be convincing and the general vibe I got from his posting seemed like he was hiding info for something.
Mig I had a suspicion of a while ago and I don't really remember why. He seems to be better now.
I didn't feel like doing analysis on Kurumi's voting list.
oroglove and redtooth both really turned my off because they each seemed arrogant. Oroglove just stopped posting things he thought were useful and started to do the one liners and "I told you so" type posts. Redtooth did a similar type thing where he seemed to not understand why people didn't see things the way he did, and he seemed to give only chaoser credit. I just felt both were being manipulative.
I'm still undecided on who my top suspects are but Kita is because he is an alive vet and you are because I don't underestimate your ability in this game even though you are a fairly new player. But really I don't have much of a clue right now.
WTF why? Why this vibe? Why is Mig better now? Why don't you feel like it?
You haven't voted yet man.
If you end up being a townie I'm gonna be so pissed off at you!
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Um, wtf? 5 minutes left til deadline, we wasting another lynch to a modkill?
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United States4714 Posts
Don't think there is much choice. Unless you want everyone to switch to you jonn.
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United States22154 Posts
The Fortress is Firing!
The Fortress of activity aims its glinting cannons at an inactive, Node, and with a thundering boom they fire. A massive explosion envelops Node, who dies, a shocked expression on his face. Just minutes later GMarshal crumples over, vomiting black blood, it seems the radiation poisoning got to him. Everyone must either seek shelter from the fallout tonight or bask in its glory! Anyone who basks in its glory has a chance of dying or gaining a mutation, one or the other. Due to the fact that he was disintegrated Node's alignment and role will not be revealed, and no one wants to approach GMarshal's heavily irradiated corpse to find out his profession either. Oh and a 25% chance of glowing zombie attacks tonight!
That is all, the fortress was too distracting and there was no lynch!
GMarshal is Dead
Node is dead
You have 24 hours to get night actions in!
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Night 8![[image loading]](http://blogs.greenville.edu/students/files/2010/05/ghost-town.jpg)
Man, this town sure is getting pretty empty. Why do you insist on killing each other all the time? Couldn’t you, I dunno, work it out? I mean, I’m pretty sure there’s enough space for all of you at this point.
Welp, I guess this town ain’t big enough for AirbladeOrange.
AirbladeOrange the Townie is dead.
DUN DUN DUNNNNNN. I shouldn’t have to tell you what to do at this point. You know what’s going on, right? Right.
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Oh for fucks sake. Why didn't you defend yourself?
Do we have to get one tmoro or lose?
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EPT![[image loading]](http://blog.lhyeung.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/cgr2twentyfour01.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.bailoutmainstreetnow.com/home/images/stories/news/war/nuclearblast.jpg)
