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sinani206
United States1959 Posts
Day 1 Votecount 2 jish17 (0) FatesGod (0) Edwin5 (3) zany_001 Ciryandor Thnikkaman47 Toadesstern (2) Zanfada JoshKirby Sknowman (1) FranzP JoshKirby (1) Toadesstern With 12 players alive, it is 7 to lynch. I am being more lenient with the votes now, because of all the people yelling at me. But know the format for future reference. Also to remember to ##Unvote before you change your vote. Day 1 ends in 11 hours. | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
On September 30 2011 00:00 Ciryandor wrote: Why not zany? What do you think of him anyway, given that he's the only real read in terms of voting we have really got? And do explain the ratios? GM: Are we presuming that since this is a 12 person game that option 2 in the role set-up is out of the question, as it is made for an 11 person game? zany's suspicious, but nobody else has voted for him. Given the amount of activity it's easier to lynch Toadesstern than anyone else since someone's already voted for him. If people are willing to switch to zany I'll do so as well. Ratios: If we kill an inactive player who's already going to get modkilled, then unless we luck out and Edwin5 is mafia (1/4 chance), we'll enter the night with 3 mafia and 8 town. I'll write this as (3, 8). In this case the doctor has a 1/10 chance of picking the right person to save, and the detective has a 3/10 chance to pick a mafia member. In the worst case town keeps lynching town. This is how that would play out. (3,8) (1/10 chance of save, 3/10 chance of finding mafia) ---> (3,7) (3/10 chance of lynching mafia) ---> (3,6) (1/8 chance of save, 3/8 chance of finding mafia) --> (3,5) (3/8 chance of lynching mafia) --> (3, 4) (1/6 chance of save, 3/7 chance of finding mafia) --> (3, 3) (mafia win) If we kill someone who is active, though, in the worst case we end up with 3 mafia and 7 town. (3, 7) (1/9 chance of save, 3/9 chance of finding mafia) --> (3,6) (3/9 chance of lynching mafia) --> (3,5) (1/7 chance of save, 3/7 chance of finding mafia) --> (3,4) (3/7 chance of lynching mafia) --> (3,3) (mafia win) Therefore, in the worst possible case, town has better odds of saving, detecting, and lynching a mafioso while having the same number of days. If a doctor exists and you have faith in him, then a no-lynch could plausibly be the best choice. I did not realize that the 1 doctor/1 detective was still feasible since there were originally 11 players in that setup. That may help out the detective from being lynched, but only in that scenario (which we have a 1/4 chance of being in). [B]On September 29 2011 22:21 Toadesstern wrote: I mean really? we got 2 or 3 people who are trying to get some activity. Activity is good for town and you want to lynch someone active because he's active? I know that this is a beginners game but srsly, This is totally scum logic. They try to go for blues on day 1 which is going to be hard given there's so few town active, if they can't they're going for someone you gets the activity going because that's so valuable to town as well. I explained why the odds are better for town (in the worst case) if you lynch someone who is active. I did not go into too much detail, and that's my fault, but it's not "scum logic," just math. | ||
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On September 30 2011 00:11 raynpelikoneet wrote: You are right. I wasn't thinking people would follow me in my Edwin vote, as i said i just wanted him to post at least something. That is also why i said, that if the day continues, we should think about our votes again (becouse he turned out to be inactive). But yeah, basically what you said in the paragraph i bolded, is true. What i was thinking i agree is wrong. Well, then I think we ought to really pressure zany for dodging the whole issue then. Still, from reading Josh's post, unless he replies to my questioning his talk on probabilties, I think he may know something we don't. ##Vote zany_001 | ||
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
##Unvote Edwin5 ##Vote zany_001 | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 30 2011 01:22 Ciryandor wrote: Well, then I think we ought to really pressure zany for dodging the whole issue then. Still, from reading Josh's post, unless he replies to my questioning his talk on probabilties, I think he may know something we don't. ##Vote zany_001 exactly my though. So I think he's just being stupid right here, switching to zany as well ##UNVOTE JoshKirby ##VOTE zany_001 For the probabilities: Yeah that sounds legit but really isn't of course we get a higher chance to get a safe or a good dt check if few townies are alive and a lot scum are. Hell if there'd be 5 townies alive and 3 scum it would be a 3 out of 8 chance to check a scum and a 1 out of 5 chance to get a nice safe. Still you probably won't suggest to kill townies just to get better safe/check rates. Surely that's not what you're saying, but it's what it comes down to if you think through what you just said. Also, we don't even know if we got a medic and/or a dt, at least I don't. I know what you want to say with your math and the math behind it may be right, but it's not helping town to get a good safe/check ratio because if town is in that situation the game is either over right away or is 1 day away from being over. The only reason to vote for someone that is active in this thread is a scum read. Also note that "active" is not to be meant as "posting at all", but as "posting quite a bit", while lurking is more of a "yeah posted a bit but not really something" and being absend is having no posts at all. So we should first of all try to get a red. Obviously it's hard to get a good read on day1, especially with so few discussions (active or lurking) If that's not going to happen we probably should go after someone who we think might be scum. Could be wrong, but still a chance (active or lurking). If that's not going to happen we probably should go and try to kill a lurker, the chances to hit a red are way higher that way (only lurking) If that's not going to happen a push on someone for information might still get us something. That's basicly my thought process right here. I don't think the read on zany or you is clear but it's something, so right now I'm going for the 2nd scenario while you are going for something thats on the bottom of my list. You're trying to get a lynch for information although I'm active. | ||
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Zanfada
United States53 Posts
##VOTE: zany_001 my vote for Toadesstern was to get him join us, which he has. I mentioned zany earlier about his half assed clue thing which did strike as an odd post more fluff then anything (scum tell.) Then he joins the kill Edwin group for no real reason other then to kill anyone. The kill edwin group grew rather fast and I think it was mostly mafia trying to blend in and pick off an easy kill without drawing to much attention. Zany still hasnt responded to anything really. So I would like to hear thoughts ans suspicions on what has been going on in the game so far. Till then he has my vote. | ||
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Birdie
New Zealand4438 Posts
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
Has jish17 been here already? Ditto on Fatesgod. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On September 28 2011 03:30 Zanfada wrote: Hi all, This is my first time playing mafia but I have played werewolf a few times so I am not a total newb. @raynpelikoneet I think there is an advantage personally playing with someone before because you have actually interacted and not read the manuscript of what was said. However we are getting sidetracked. zany implies there are clues in a half assed way, either he is a stupid town wanting to get us to start talking about nonexistent clues or he is a mafia looking to side track us with stupid nonexistent clues. I am going to be watching him more closely. You are right about clues, however you are not right about the advantage. The player who is more experienced, or lets' say better, will get an advantage. Not "everyone who have been in a same game with someone". That applies to everyone. Argue about it if you will. I'm happy to. Also, why are you so curious about the "kill Edwin group"? Isn't it obvious what that was about? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On September 30 2011 04:17 Zanfada wrote: ##UNVOTE: Toadesstern ##VOTE: zany_001 my vote for Toadesstern was to get him join us, which he has. I mentioned zany earlier about his half assed clue thing which did strike as an odd post more fluff then anything (scum tell.) Then he joins the kill Edwin group for no real reason other then to kill anyone. The kill edwin group grew rather fast and I think it was mostly mafia trying to blend in and pick off an easy kill without drawing to much attention. Zany still hasnt responded to anything really. So I would like to hear thoughts ans suspicions on what has been going on in the game so far. Till then he has my vote. This was about the "kill edwin group" lol, fail quote FTW.. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
##Vote: Zanfada | ||
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jish17
Australia7 Posts
##Vote: zany_001 | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
On September 30 2011 01:58 Toadesstern wrote: For the probabilities: Yeah that sounds legit but really isn't of course we get a higher chance to get a safe or a good dt check if few townies are alive and a lot scum are. Hell if there'd be 5 townies alive and 3 scum it would be a 3 out of 8 chance to check a scum and a 1 out of 5 chance to get a nice safe. Still you probably won't suggest to kill townies just to get better safe/check rates. Surely that's not what you're saying, but it's what it comes down to if you think through what you just said. I'm not saying that we kill townies on purpose. Think of it this way: 1. We can only kill mafia by lynching them. 2. If we vote for someone who is inactive (i.e. going to get modkilled), then we've basically lynched nobody. In the worst case we get 2 guaranteed lynchings. If the doctor saves, we get 3. 3. If we vote for someone who isn't going to get modkilled, then we have a chance of lynching a mafioso (unless they're all inactive, in which case we win anyway). In the worst case we still get 2 more guaranteed lynchings, so we don't have to rely on a save to get a 3rd chance on lynching a mafia member. 4. Unless you're risky it's better to lynch someone who won't get modkilled. On September 30 2011 01:58 Toadesstern wrote: Also note that "active" is not to be meant as "posting at all", but as "posting quite a bit", while lurking is more of a "yeah posted a bit but not really something" and being absend is having no posts at all. I meant "inactive" as in "will be modkilled by the end of the day." This is probably the source of the confusion. On September 30 2011 01:58 Toadesstern wrote: If that's not going to happen we probably should go and try to kill a lurker, the chances to hit a red are way higher that way (only lurking) I don't see how this true. There are many different ways to play a mafioso, and some require a lot of activity. It may be useful to boost participation, however. On September 30 2011 01:19 JoshKirby wrote: zany's suspicious, but nobody else has voted for him. Given the amount of activity it's easier to lynch Toadesstern than anyone else since someone's already voted for him. If people are willing to switch to zany I'll do so as well. Looks like this might happen. ##UNVOTE Toadesstern ##VOTE zany_001 | ||
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sinani206
United States1959 Posts
Day 1 Votecount 3 jish17 (0) FatesGod (0) Edwin5 (2) zany_001 Thnikkaman47 Toadesstern (0) Sknowman (1) FranzP JoshKirby (0) zany_001 (5) Ciryandor Toadesstern Zanfada jish17 JoshKirby Zanfada (1) raynpelikoneet Modkills: (3) Sknowman edwin5 FatesGod With 12 players alive, it is 7 to lynch. As of right now, there is no lynch. Day 1 ends in 1.5 hours. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Obviously mafia won't vote for zany if he's red => we don't get 7 However if zany turns out to be green mafia won't have a problem lynching him => we might get 7 if the rest gets active within 60 mins.  | ||
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sinani206
United States1959 Posts
Day 1 Final Votecount jish17 (0) FatesGod (0) Edwin5 (2) zany_001 Thnikkaman47 Toadesstern (0) Sknowman (1) FranzP JoshKirby (0) zany_001 (5) Ciryandor Toadesstern Zanfada jish17 JoshKirby Zanfada (1) raynpelikoneet Modkills: (3) Sknowman edwin5 FatesGod Night Post INCOMING | ||
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sinani206
United States1959 Posts
Night 1 ![[image loading]](http://www.connecttoremotesupport.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/apc.jpg) It was a crazy day, with random accusations all over. Town had almost gotten someone lynched, but then the unexpected happened--The sun went backwards half the distance it had gone that day. There was an outrage among the few who had survived the dragon, but there was no one to complain to, so they just continued as if nothing had happened. However, they still couldn't agree on anyone. They were retiring to their beds, but then lightning struck and killed the three town members who had stayed home all day, playing BGH with each other over LAN (the dragon had killed Battle.net, so they had to play LAN, but there is no LAN in SC2). Sknowman the townie has been modkilled. edwin5 the townie has been modkilled. FatesGod the townie has been modkilled. Night ends in 24 hours, please submit your actions to me AND GMarshal. | ||
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sinani206
United States1959 Posts
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Curu
Canada2817 Posts
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On September 30 2011 12:33 Curu wrote: lol 3 modkills in a mini means Town lost already. not really, they can still pull through. | ||
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