2022 GSL Code S Season 2 - Round of 4

Start time: Thursday, Jul 21 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

After seven weeks of play, we're down to just four players in Code S Season 2. herO, Dark, and Maru—Korea's top players from each faction—have all survived until the final stages of the tournament, foretelling an exciting final act. But they're also joined by one of 2022's most intriguing upstarts in Bunny, who has overcome misfortune after misfortune to finally reach the round-of-4. Which two players will move on to play in the grand finals?

Semifinal #1: herO vs Bunny

by Wax

The first semifinals stars two players who have overcome much adversity to get this far, although their trials have been of very different kinds.

Starting in the second half of 2021, Bunny had been one of the most rapidly improving players in the StarCraft II scene, reaching the Code S semifinals and also finishing top eight at IEM Katowice. However, his momentum was abruptly killed in Code S Season 1, when a freak wrist injury—suffered during a fall in a stairwell—sidelined him for three weeks ahead of his RO20 group stage matches. While Bunny was able to recover in time to play, the lack of practice time led to his quiet elimination in last place.

Bunny shrugged that setback aside and roared back to start Season 2. As if to demonstrate what he would have done in Season 1 with proper practice time, he advanced from his RO20 group in first place (wins against ByuN and soO). However, disaster struck yet again during the RO10. While many players and casters contracted COVID-19 at DreamHack Valencia, Bunny was one of the few who was so unlucky as to test positive before his departing flight. This forced him to quarantine in Spain for over a week—right before his RO10 match! It seemed like Bunny would yet again be struck down due to circumstances outside of StarCraft II.

However, in the most unexpected fashion, this curse ended up being a blessing. In an interview, Bunny said being unable to practice forced him to tone down his frenetic, risky-heavy playstyle in favor of a slower, more deliberate approach. This ended up working wonders for Bunny, as he was able to defeat both RagnaroK and Cure in drawn out macro games and secure his advancement to the round-of-6. Those lessons seemed to stick with Bunny, as he played a similar style to score the biggest upset of the entire tournament so far. Facing the supposedly invincible TvT player Maru in the RO6, Bunny actually outplayed the 4-time Code S champion in macro games to earn a 3-1 victory.

Now, Bunny stands in the Code S semifinals, equalling the best Code S result of his career. With no more external obstacles to impede him, and with some hard-earned lessons in hand, he may very well be ready to take the next step.

If the hurdles Bunny faced were uniquely personal, then the roadblock herO had to overcome was deeply institutional. As much as fans like to blame Blizzard, ESL, other video games, casters, the community, and a litany of other entities for 'killing' StarCraft II, Korea's mandatory military service might actually be the single most damaging force in the pro scene. Not only does it interrupt the careers of legendary pros, but it spits them back out as much diminished versions of their past selves.

Of course, military service is no longer the career death sentence it was in times past, with numerous players returning to become Code S regulars. However, no player has truly recovered to 100% of their old level… …but herO might change that.

herO was arguably the best Protoss in the world at various points during Heart of the Swarm, and one can make a strong argument that he's reached that level again in 2022. Going by Aligulac.com rating, he's #1 in overall Protoss rating, PvZ rating, and PvT rating, and is #2 in PvP rating behind the online-only MaxPax. herO's PvZ seems to be exceptionally strong, whether you go by his rating, the content of his games, or by the acclaim of his peers. It's the one match-up where he's unabashedly confident, saying he might be even better than in his pre-military prime.

The big mark against herO is that much of his success has come in online play, whereas he's fallen short of expectations in big tournaments. IEM Katowice 2022 and Code S Season 1 were both huge disappointments, where he was eliminated far earlier than expected considering the buzz around him. DreamHack Valencia went much better as he reached the top four, but you could say it was still a disappointment as he was favored against Dark in the semifinals (even the typically blustering Dark seemed afraid of facing him). This stands in contrast to the herO of the past, who racked up trophies in offline tournaments (albeit, he has always been snake-bitten in Code S). In the six tournaments herO won, he was rarely an odds-on favorite, but he managed to clutch out wins against fellow title contenders to win the title.

This season of Code S could be a major inflection point in herO's post-military career. We've seen herO dominate online events and receive heaps of praise from his peers, only to fall short in major events. herO's skill-level clearly seems to be back to its old level—if he can also recover his killer instinct, then he might finally get the ultimate payoff.

Aligulac sees herO as a hefty favorite with a 68.27% win probability headed into the match. The head-to-head score also favors herO, as he has a 16W-5L match record (33W-18L). Many of these matches occurred during herO's pre-military days, back when the two players were teammates on CJ Entus. There was quite the gap between the two at that time, so the one-sided numbers aren't much of a surprise. However, the post-military stats favor herO as well. Bunny got back a handful of wins after herO's return, but the restored herO is now on a five-match winning streak against his former teammate.

Style wise, I would have said this was a duel of offense versus offense up until a week ago. herO doesn't fit the traditional mold of a PvT powerhouse—the kind of player that deflects every Terran attack and slowly suffocates them in a macro game. Instead, herO is the type of player who loves to harass, attack, fight, and generally maintain a speedy tempo in a match. There's a fine line between being reckless and ruthless, but herO always seems to fall on the side of his latter with his seemingly risky attacks usually paying off. Day9's "Just go f***ing kill him" is an oft repeated mantra in StarCraft II, and I think herO (alongside Dark) might be the player who has best applied this principle at the pro-level.

Bunny is—or perhaps used to be—a similar player in TvP, who enjoys playing from the position of the aggressor. However, as mentioned above, his recent interviews suggest that he may have had an epiphany during his COVID-19 quarantine. It was rather interesting to hear GSL's Gyuri lavish him with praise for his lightning-quick offense, only for Bunny to respond that he was actually playing at a slow pace. Perhaps, in fact, playing at 100 miles per hour in every single moment wasn't the best way to win StarCraft II games. Maybe, instead of forcing three reckless drops into the opponent's main and hoping one works, it's better to jockey for position with your opponent, move his army out of place, and then execute a single drop that's very likely to succeed. What an idea!

If this was to play out as a series with a lot of early skirmishing and aggression, I'd have to favor herO due to his superior multi-tasking and unit control in small-army scenarios. However, a more methodical approach from Bunny might make things more even. Even if herO is the best Zealot-Stalker A-mover in the world (I 99% mean this as a compliment), top Terrans can occasionally defend until herO runs out of steam. I'm not convinced that Bunny will succeed at that, but I think that's his best shot at winning rather than trying to fight fire with fire.

Prediction: herO 3 - 1 Bunny

Semifinal #2: Dark vs Maru

by Poopi

This match is GSL finals caliber, but we have to settle for a best-of-five in the semifinals. Still, we can’t sulk about our enjoyment being slightly diminished, because it's always a pleasure to watch two of the best players in the world battle it out.

Maru and Dark fought two weeks ago in the finals of DreamHack Valencia, and that match certainly lived up to the hype. Dark initially led the series 3-1, but Maru brought it back to 3-3 to force a game seven. Ultimately, Dark won the championship and with it the temporary title of best player in the world, but it felt like the series could have gone either way.

For both Maru and Dark, there's a lot more at stake in Code S than there was at DreamHack Valencia, and it's not just the difference in prize money ($30,000 compared to $15,000 for first place). The elusive G5L trophy is once again within Maru's reach, and with Rogue out of the way, there's no greater opportunity to become the first player to ever claim the legendary prize. While Maru is already one of the greatest StarCraft II players of all time, the G5L trophy would further elevate his standing in the history books. Similarly, Dark is also one of the all-time greats, but he would undoubtedly love to further enhance his legacy with a third Code S championship.

Some fans might even be looking at this as the finals before the finals. Certainly, Bunny and herO have proved their mettle—Bunny just pulled off the near-impossible feat of beating Maru in a TvT best-of-five, while herO pushed Dark to five games in the semifinals of DreamHack. However, neither player is anywhere close to being as proven as Dark or Maru in grand finals settings (at least in the case of this post-military version of herO). The winner of this match could go into the finals with one hand on the trophy.

It goes without saying that it's very hard to predict the outcome of this match. On the one hand, Dark did win their series at DreamHack Valencia. On the other hand, Maru's track record in international tournaments isn't as good as Dark's, so he might play slightly better in the GSL studio. Given how close their series at Valencia was, even a small improvement from Maru could swing the outcome.

Also, it's hard to judge Maru's form when you consider the circumstances around his recent matches. He lost 0-2 to DongRaeGu in the round-of-10, and even lost in a game where he attempted the turtle-mech style that had looked very strong for him lately. However, he was ill with COVID-19 at the time (as was DongRaeGu, to be fair), and he commented that it affected him to some extent. Maru then went on to redeem himself with a 3-0 against RO6 after recovering from COVID, but it was due to catching DRG off guard with a barrage of 2-base all-ins. With only one series to go off, we can't tell if that was a one-off series of gambles to catch DRG off guard, or if it signals a more permanent change in style. Maru also happened to lose 1-3 to Bunny in the RO6, despite being the heavy favorite headed into the match. It may have been partially due to his experimentation with off-meta builds like Cyclones-into-mech or 2-Starport Raven openers, but it was still a shocking outcome that dimmed Maru's aura slightly.

All in all, predicting Maru's level of play seems harder than usual. Maybe we can just add Bunny to the list of former teammates Maru sometimes struggles against, alongside Rogue and Creator. Maybe the earlier loss to DRG was largely due to COVID-19, and the 3-0 sweep in the RO6 was the real Maru. Maybe he only lost to Dark in Valencia because he lost the battle of stamina at the end of a long day, and he'll triumph now that he gets to play in top condition in Korea. Or, perhaps, he'll get destroyed in anticlimactic fashion. Remember, if his match against Dark in Valencia had been a BO5, it would have been a one-sided 1-3 loss.

While Maru’s recent tournament performances have sent mixed signals, Dark's stock has been going straight up in the past few weeks. After a shaky performance in the RO20 where he ceded the first place spot to Zoun, Dark has bounced back by going on an absolute rampage. Not only did he win DreamHack Valencia with wins over herO and Maru, but he also topped his Code S RO10 group with a perfect 8W-0L map score against Creator, Bunny, RagnaroK, and Cure. When you sum up these recent performances, it feels like Dark has a huge advantage in terms of momentum.

Aligulac rates Maru as a very slight favorite, with a 51.87% chance of winning the best-of-five. The two players' head-to-head record is also incredibly close with Maru barely in the lead at 20W-19L-1D in matches and 63W-61L in maps.

Back in Valencia, Dark prevented Maru from getting to his famed late-game easily, favoring a double-Evolution Chamber Ling-Bane style to overpower Maru in the early and mid-game phases. I could see Maru losing to a similar style of play from Dark in the GSL. At the same time, Dark was also capable of breaking through Maru's defenses in the one DreamHack game where he did establish a strong turtling stance. It was definitely very difficult for Dark, however, and I think both players have a similar chance of winning in longer games.

Maru did present an interesting conundrum to Dark through his RO6 match against DRG, sweeping the Team NV Zerg with a series of 2-base all-ins. While I highly doubt Dark would lose as easily to similar strategies, it's something that could complicate Dark's planning.

Overall, I expect Dark to get more 'easy' wins, while Maru will have to fight very hard for each and every map. I can foresee a scenario where Maru actually goes 2-1 in the longer macro games, but Dark still wins 3-2 because he picks up those two easier wins. Looking back to the Valencia series, it might also just be a 3-0 for Dark as Maru was getting rocked early before making a late comeback.

Prediction: Dark 3 - 2 Maru

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