• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
TeamLiquid Liquipedia LiquidDota LiquidLegends
EDT 07:00
CEST 13:00
KST 20:00
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL14] Ro24 Preview Pt2: Speedrunning6WTL 2022 Summer - Playoffs Preview4Farewell CCL: Season 4 Recap1WTL 2022 Summer - Regular Season Awards + Week 119[ASL14] Ro24 Preview Pt1: Long Awaited15
Community News
[TSL 9] TIME's replacement, UK Barcrafts26ESL Open Cup #135: ByuN, MaxPax, Solar win5Code Season 3 (2022) - RO20 groups announced69GSL S3 2022 Qualifier Cast (AfreecaTV)3Team NV to disband after WTL 2022 Summer26
StarCraft 2
General
[TSL 9] TIME's replacement, UK Barcrafts PvZ and creep What are your feelings on the new SC2 map pool? Code Season 3 (2022) - RO20 groups announced ESL Open Cup #135: ByuN, MaxPax, Solar win
Tourneys
SC2 Tournament Forum Posting Tips HomeStory Cup 21 Announcing $5,000 G-FUEL Gladiators' Cup GSL S3 2022 Qualifier Cast (AfreecaTV) Sniper's Team League Season 1
Strategy
PvT macro builds Terran Mule Timing wankery What should I try to work on to improve my TvZ Maru Offensive Widow Mine Drop
Custom Maps
Alternate Melee | Extension Mod – Multiplayer LotV [M](4) Typhoon StarLance | Extension Mod – Multiplayer LotV [A] SC Real Scale
External Content
Mutation # 330 Ulnar New Year Mutation # 329 Attrition Warfare Mutation # 328 Overclocked Mutation # 327 Temple of Rebirth
Brood War
General
[ASL14] Ro24 Preview Pt2: Speedrunning BGH auto balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ The future of starcraft broodwar BW General Discussion Old VOD's collection
Tourneys
[ASL14] Ro24 Group F [ASL14] Ro24 Group E New Worlds Map Contest 2: Test Tours! [ASL14] Ro24 Group D
Strategy
Battery control PvT advise for noobs [PvP] How to defend vs. 2 gate zealot into nexus Project: Strat Update
Other Games
General Games
Diablo IV Company of Heroes 3 Pokémon Go! Final Fantasy XIV Nintendo Switch Thread
Dota 2
Official Dota and Chess General Discussion PGL Arlington Major [DPC 21-22] Tour 3 Discussion/LR TL.net migration megathread + LiquidDota archive
League of Legends
[Summer Split] LoL Esports General Discussion [Patch Notes] Release General Discussion
Heroes of the Storm
HotS: WP and Funny Moments Farewell CCL: Season 4 Recap Time of the Season: X-Cup Summer Preview The New Kings of Paris: MCC Finals Recap
Hearthstone
TL Mafia
Chezinu streak(s) Mafia TL Mafia Community Thread British Empire Mini Mafia II
Community
General
Coronavirus and You US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread UK Politics Mega-thread NASA and the Private Sector
Fan Clubs
The Flash Fan Club The herO Fan Club! INnoVation Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[TV] HBO's Westworld Korean Music Discussion Movie Discussion! Anime Discussion Thread [Manga] One Piece
Sports
2022 - 2023 Football Thread McBoner: A hockey love story NBA General Discussion Formula 1 Discussion 2021 - 2022 Football Thread
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread The Ultimate Mouse Thread Windows won't boot from cloned SSD
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Some New Pilot Certificat…
micronesia
U.S. Remote Job Opportunity…
FrinkX
Namkraft's ASL 14 ENG casts…
namkraft
Regarding teenagers and …
mantequilla
New EG Roster
cmsimon
Programming Without Addera…
codonbyte
Royal Tyrell Museum in Drumhe…
JimmiC
Great mix of RTS and tu…
AiHEADHUNTER
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1196 users

DHM Last Chance 2022 - Group C & D Preview

Forum Index > SC2 General
14 CommentsPost a Reply

DHM Last Chance 2022 - Group C & D Preview

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
January 13th, 2022 04:37 GMT

DreamHack Masters: Last Chance 2022

by Poopi

After a series of wild results and even wilder games in the first two RO16 groups of DHM Last Chance, we can only hope that the next two groups will keep the trend going. Group C features the tournament's group of death, while Group D sees the last player with IEM Katowice stakes on the line go into action.

DreamHack Masters: Last Chance 2022


RO16 - Group C Preview: Clem, Dark, Solar, MaxPax

Start time: Thursday, Jan 13 2:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

Group C is special in DHM Last Chance for a couple of reasons. First, most fans would probably agree that it’s the group of death, with two of the top Zergs and arguably the best foreign Protoss and Terran. In fact, Group C players have the most total combined EPT points among all of the groups (Group A: 6568, Group B: 6844, Group C: 6958, Group D: 6416).

Another quirk of Group C is that it’s the only one without any major IEM Katowice stakes—Dark has a RO24 seed from winning a GSL championship, while Clem, MaxPax, and Solar have all guaranteed themselves RO24 spots on points. So for better or for worse, these players can compete here without the added pressure of thinking about IEM Katowice.

Also, as this is the last big test before the World Championship, it's our best shot of assessing the current power level of four players whose form can fluctuate at times. We'll see if Clem's recent TvZ struggles are still a matter of concern, and if the ever-improving MaxPax has gone up yet another level. We also have Solar, who can play championship tier SC2 at times, but can't always show it in the biggest events. Finally, there's Dark, who hasn't been able to clinch another first place finish since winning Code S Season 2.

The first match of the group will be a very familiar match-up for those who watch the EPT Weekly European cups on Mondays. Indeed, Clem and MaxPax are frequent foes, with the two going back and forth evenly as of late. Though Clem's tournament results suggest that he has been struggling recently, it's interesting to note that he's actually in insanely good form in TvP with a 78-22 map record (78% win-rate) in the last two months. On the other hand, MaxPax has just over a 50% win-rate in PvT in the same period with a 39-36 record.

The usual cup competition caveats apply here, with Clem racking up a lot of his wins against weaker opponents. However, the same could be said of MaxPax (though one might argue that the demographics of EU SC2 provides more Protosses to feast on), and Clem has taken quality wins against strong Protosses like ShoWTimE and Trap on top of lesser foes. The Aligulac.com formula, which takes the strength of opponents into account, still sees Clem as the solid favorite with a 71.39% chance of winning this match. Of course, Clem also has a massive head-to-head advantage at 34-11 in matches—MaxPax may be going 50/50 against Clem lately, but he was dominated by him for most of his early career.

While MaxPax has shown that he's on more even footing with Clem now, I still see Clem winning the first round. Most of his troubles have been in TvZ, and he should still be relatively confident in TvP against MaxPax. While Clem has shown some weakness to fine-tuned aggressive builds (notably against herO), he'll know to be more careful about that potential hole in his game.

The ZvZ between Dark and Solar will be a rematch from the recent GSL: Super Tournament 1 2022 qualifier, in which Dark sent Solar to the loser’s bracket with a 2-0 victory. Surprisingly, the two didn't play each other much in 2021, with Dark winning twice and tying in a WTL match. Despite Dark's recent success, this is a very difficult match to predict if we go by the numbers. The career head-to-head record favors the DPG Zerg slightly at 69-57 (54.76% win-rate), and Aligulac.com's predictive formula actually sees the match as virtually even with Dark leading by about half a percentage point. The two players also have very similar ZvZ records over the last two months, with Dark standing at 32-21 while Solar is 37-22 in maps. There's not much to glean from the specific opponents either, as both players beat up on weaker opponents and match up closely against fellow strong Zergs. Therefore, I'll go with my heart on this pick and take Dark to win, given his better track record in major tournaments. Personally, I want to see Clem face Dark, and both of them winning their initial match seems like the most likely way to get there.

If things go as I predict, the winners' match will feature Clem vs Dark in what's becoming a new classic. The two hadn't fought at all before 2021, but since then, they've faced each other in four BO5+ series and a handful of shorter bouts. Clem was hailed as the best TvZ player in the world for a large chunk of 2020-2021, but Dark's 4-2 victory over Clem in TSL7 was what began a slow erosion of Clem's reputation. Dark won despite being the underdog (which is a testimony to Clem’s TvZ aura around that period), and after that, Clem suffered previously unthinkable losses to players like Lambo and Denver as well. While Clem has remained one of the best TvZ players, he no longer seems unbeatable—he's lost to top Koreans like Rogue and Dark in major tournaments several times since.

Dark is 5-3 in matches against Clem with a 16-6 combined map record, and at this point, Aligulac actually sees Dark as a moderate favorite with a 64.38% chance to win. I can’t help but agree. Anyone watching the ESL Open Cups of these last few weeks would have noticed Clem dropping series against several Zergs who were supposedly below his level before, and he has a rather poor 29-24 TvZ map record over the last couple of months. Meanwhile, Dark has a 49-17 map record over the same period.

Still, recently, there was a notable day where Clem really shined in all four match-ups, when he very nearly all-killed team Korea in a holiday Olimoleague Invitational (wins over Maru, Trap, Dark, and Rogue). Though he was eventually defeated by a revived Maru, the match provided hope for Clem fans that he might be regaining his form. No, his results after that December match haven't exactly been positive, but perhaps DHM Last Chance will be where Clem demonstrates that he still has what it takes to beat every Zerg on the planet, and even challenge for an international title. But given his protracted struggles on the new map pool, I still project Dark to win if they were to meet here.

The remaining matches should be more predictable—MaxPax has had insanely good results in the PvZ match-up these last 2 months, while Solar has been 'merely' performing at his usual good level. Aligulac gives MaxPax a 58.78% chance to win, and considering his only major losses in the last few months have come against Serral (0-3) and Scarlett (0-2), I have to give him the edge. In a potential rematch between Clem and MaxPax, I think Clem will remain the favorite despite the rematch curse and come through in second place.

Predictions:
Clem > MaxPax
Dark > Solar
Clem < Dark
MaxPax > Solar
Clem > MaxPax

Dark and Clem to advance.

RO16 - Group D Preview: Serral, Cure, Dream, DongRaeGu

Start time: Friday, Jan 14 2:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

While not quite the group of death, Group D is still pretty impressive. Serral seems to be back in great form lately, Cure is the reigning Code S champ, and there are two solid underdogs in Dream and DongRaeGu. The first three players are locked into the Katowice RO24, but DongRaeGu has some extra stakes to play for. If Zest is forced to drop out due to military service, then DongRaeGu can secure the RO24 'wildcard' spot with just a single win. The wildcard spot goes to the player with the most EPT points who didn't qualify out of their regional standings—Lambo currently holds that spot with 740 points, but DongRaeGu would improve to 751 points with just a single victory in Group D. Again, this is contingent on Zest dropping out as many fear—see our qualification scenarios write-up for more details.

Depending on how pragmatic DongRaeGu is, he might have focused his practice primarily on the TvZ match-up. His initial opponent is the fearsome Serral, which makes a first place finish seem extremely difficult. Serral has a sub-60% ZvZ win-rate in the past two months, but much of that is due to his drubbing against Rogue in the TSL8 finals. On the other hand, DongRaeGu is 14-15 in the same period, and has mostly lost when facing Code S-tier players like Armani, Dark, and Solar. Overall, Aligulac gives Serral over an 80% chance of beating DongRaeGu. Whether it's for the sake of advancing in DHM or simply getting the single BO3 win that could vastly improve his Katowice seeding, it might be prudent for DongRaeGu to focus on his best match-up of ZvT.

The second mirror match is a TvT that also seems quite predictable. Cure is very strong in the match-up, while Dream is average (for a Code S player at least) at best. Their head-to-head map record massively favors the latest GSL champion at 83- 22 (79.05% winrate), though it is noteworthy that Dream beat Cure twice during 2021 Code S Season 1 to eliminate him from the group stage. There's a chance that Dream manages to upset Cure once again, but it's a slim chance indeed.

In the likely winners' match of Cure vs Serral, I doubt that Cure will even be able to take a map. There's a huge discrepancy in Cure's match-up strengths, with his TvP looking dominant while his TvZ trails far behind. Outside of late 2020 when Cure was able to destroy Serral and Reynor in King of Battles using a novel, mass-Widow Mine drop strategy, the Terran hasn't been quite as big a threat at the absolute top tier of TvZ. He's even been slumping in the current map pool, and has an alarmingly poor TvZ map record of 21-33 in the last two months. He basically loses against the top Zergs in one-sided fashion, and even struggles against players a tier below like RagnaroK, DRG, and Solar.

Whether or not DongRaeGu has read TL.net or has just done the math himself, he probably knows he has a good shot at the Katowice RO24 by beating any or both the Terrans in his group. ZvT is easily the strongest of his three match-ups where he ranks 6th in the world on Aligulac.com, and he's favored against both Dream (62.99%) and Cure (54.82%) according to the stats site. I can see Dream or Cure taking a game off him with a well placed proxy or other early gambit, but I fully expect DRG to win both matches given the stakes and his proficiency against Terran. One could wonder if the importance of these matches could hinder DongRaeGu from playing at his usual level, but I do not think he is prone to choking. He was a championship-tier player in the past, and he hasn't really underperformed since his return from military service. A group with one super strong Zerg and two terrans not named Maru or Clem suits him perfectly.

Predictions:

Serral > DRG
Cure > Dream
Serral > Cure
DRG > Dream
DRG > Cure

Serral and DRG advance.





Writers: Poopi
Editor: Wax
Photos: DreamHack
Statistics: Liquipedia

Facebook Twitter Reddit
TL+ Member
swarminfestor
Profile Joined September 2017
Malaysia1856 Posts
January 13 2022 08:19 GMT
#2
Group C: Clem, Dark
Group D: Cure, Serral
Rogue & Maru fan boy. ^^
Drfilip
Profile Joined March 2013
Sweden542 Posts
January 13 2022 08:54 GMT
#3
I see DRG advancing as a possibility because of his ZvT. I think both Terran player will win if they face DRG because DRG isn't on their level. The only thing speaking for DRG is his absurd ZvT.

Dark vs Solar only happened 3 times last year? They usually have very odd games when playing. I remember 2 consecutive matches between them when both players did 3 hatch before pool on the same map. Solar made 2 hatcheries before he started his pool vs the most frequent 12 pooler in top StarCraft2. Mind games or mutual understanding of the maps in the map pool?
Anyway, I look forward to any game between Dark and Solar.
Random Platinum EU
Argonauta
Profile Joined July 2016
Spain4193 Posts
January 13 2022 09:42 GMT
#4
Group C: Dark Solar
Group D: Cure Serral
Rogue | Maru | Scarlett | Trap
TL+ Member
dbRic1203
Profile Joined July 2019
Germany2392 Posts
January 13 2022 10:16 GMT
#5
MaxPax PvZ has been absolutly amazing as of late
I hope he gets a Chance to prevail in the matchup once more and get out of the group somehow
MaxPax | Reynor | Clem
koalabro
Profile Joined June 2021
59 Posts
January 13 2022 14:05 GMT
#6
C: dark and clem
D: serral and cure
uselless
Profile Joined April 2021
77 Posts
January 13 2022 15:12 GMT
#7
there was a notable day where Clem really shined in all four match-ups

maru the fourth race
maru :D
starvingbox
Profile Joined August 2020
United States44 Posts
January 13 2022 15:39 GMT
#8
great write-up, poopi! thanks for all you do!
Evilmj
Profile Joined December 2021
China56 Posts
January 13 2022 17:28 GMT
#9
Serral and Time practice together every day. I think that was a big factor in Time's improvement and Serral's return to form.
Vision_
Profile Joined September 2018
475 Posts
January 13 2022 19:37 GMT
#10
Zerg play-style is really boring to watch...

Except banelings, glings, hydra and lurkers, i m really asking why other units exist ? (particulary in TvZ) Also, Zerg player only reproduce units and never casts spells... Sick
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada7958 Posts
January 13 2022 22:55 GMT
#11
On January 14 2022 02:28 Evilmj wrote:
Serral and Time practice together every day. I think that was a big factor in Time's improvement and Serral's return to form.


For real? Playing from Finland to China?
http://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
majin512
Profile Joined May 2021
1 Post
January 13 2022 23:17 GMT
#12
On January 14 2022 02:28 Evilmj wrote:
Serral and Time practice together every day. I think that was a big factor in Time's improvement and Serral's return to form.


Solar said he practiced ZvZ with Elazer and Serral.
It seems that Serral is a good practice partner!
Evilmj
Profile Joined December 2021
China56 Posts
January 14 2022 00:37 GMT
#13
On January 14 2022 07:55 Nakajin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2022 02:28 Evilmj wrote:
Serral and Time practice together every day. I think that was a big factor in Time's improvement and Serral's return to form.


For real? Playing from Finland to China?



Yes. This simulates the state of an online game. It's like online games against Korean. And Spirit of the Kaizi Club is one of Serral's traditional practice partners. The other two Kaizi players, Time on the way up and powerful Solar , are also good practice partners.
DarkGamer
Profile Joined November 2012
Germany269 Posts
January 14 2022 05:12 GMT
#14
"He basically loses against the top Zergs in one-sided fashion, and even struggles against players a tier below like RagnaroK, DRG, and Solar." i think the quality of their zvt's is highly underrated...especially DRG and Solar are very strong in zvt!
bob lee
Profile Joined January 2022
4 Posts
January 19 2022 05:13 GMT
#15
--- Nuked ---
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Afreeca Starleague
10:00
Round of 24 / Group F
Rush vs free
Mong vs Horang2
Afreeca ASL 8165
StarCastTV_EN177
AfreecaTV YouTube
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Harstem 564
ProTech114
Dragon 45
SC2Nice 37
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 54014
Calm 11158
GuemChi 3878
Zeus 3233
Light 1748
actioN 1092
ZerO 961
Hyuk 722
Tasteless 417
Sharp 388
[ Show more ]
Killer 268
Sacsri 77
sSak 47
Hyun 22
Bale 11
Iris 4
Rain 0
Dota 2
Cr1tdota3787
qojqva1625
XcaliburYe1322
PGG 281
NeuroSwarm182
Fuzer 137
febbydoto110
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive
officialf0rest3055
kennyS1284
Other Games
singsing2310
crisheroes926
DeMusliM748
Happy523
nookyyy 215
Liquid`Ken70
AxAlicia15
Organizations
Dota 2
BeyondTheSummit374
StarCraft: Brood War
UltimateBattle 299
StarCraft 2
Esl_sc2203
ESL.tv203
Other Games
RiyadhMasters202262
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
[ Show 15 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Light_VIP 55
• angryscii 36
• Alpha X_
• aXEnki
• intothetv
• Gussbus
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamez Trovo
• Laughngamez YouTube
• Migwel
• Poblha
StarCraft: Brood War
• sscaitournament1
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
Upcoming Events
ITaX Trovo Series
1h
Cure vs soO
ByuN vs Rogue
BeAsT Cup
6h
Online Event
23h
Theatre of Dreams
23h
1v1 Eternal Contest Tou…
1d 1h
1v1 Eternal Contest Tou…
1d 1h
ESPOT SC2 Circuit
2 days
BSL 2v2 ProLeague
2 days
ESL Pro Tour
2 days
Theatre of Dreams
2 days
[ Show More ]
New Worlds Map Contest:…
3 days
Bonyth vs Sziky
Hawk vs TerrOr
BoA vs MadiNho
OyAji vs SquaLL
BSL 2v2 ProLeague
3 days
ESL Pro Tour
4 days
ESL Pro Tour
4 days
Theatre of Dreams
4 days
BeAsT Cup
5 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
5 days
OlimoLeague
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

DDS36: Sziky vs. Zhanhun
WTL 2022 Summer
Community Clash League S4
WePlay Academy League S5

Ongoing

GAN Race Survival Season 5
KCM Ladies Race Survival 2022 Season 3
ASL Season 14
KCM Race Survival 2022 Season 3
BSL Season 15: ChoboLeague
BSL Season 15: HasuLeague
Screw Me Up Bro
Luck Over Strength
FS Mania
CSL season 6 Summer Cup
STL37
LASL Season 14
Future Cup 5 (U18)
DSSL 15
StarClash 0818 CHN vs KOR
TSL 9
WardiTV Summer 2022
NGS Storm Division S5
ESL Challenger League S42 AP

Upcoming

Deathfate Pro League 4
CWCL Season 5
Deathfate Pro Team League 2
StarClash 0828 CHN vs KOR Week10
StarClash 0821 CHN vs KOR Week9
Hongtu Solo League S3
IEM Katowice 2023
HSC XXII
2022 GSL: ST 2
DH Masters Atlanta
2022 GSL S3: Code S
Gladiators' Cup
Heroes International
Heroes Int. - NA LC Qual.
Heroes Int. - NA Qual. 2
Heroes Int. - EU LC Qual.
Heroes Int. - EU Qual. 2
Heroes Int. - NA Qual. 1
Heroes Int. - EU Qual. 1
IEM Rio Major 2022
IEM Rio 2022: AME RMR
IEM Rio 2022: EU RMR B
IEM Rio 2022: EU RMR A
IEM Rio 2022: APAC RMR
ESL Challenger Melbourne 2022
ESL Pro League Season 16
ESL Challenger League S42 EU
ESL Challenger League S42 NA
BLAST Premier Fall Groups
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2022 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.