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Code S RO24 Preview: Zest, DRG, Impact, Cure

Forum Index > SC2 General
12 CommentsPost a Reply

Code S RO24 Preview: Zest, DRG, Impact, Cure

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
April 16th, 2020 09:27 GMT

Code S Season 1 - Round of 24

by Wax

The Code S RO24 seemed predictable when the groups were first announced, but the results have been anything but expected. IEM Katowice champion Rogue and quarterfinalist sOs are already out—will it be the runner-up Zest's turn to eat a shocking first round upset?

More info: GSL Code S Season 1 on Liquipedia


Group C Preview: Zest, DongRaeGu, Impact, Cure

Start time: Saturday, Apr 18 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)

The Lords of Battle.net

Like the other six RO24 groups, we have two players who seem like heavy favorites to advance on paper. As mentioned in many previous previews, Cure and Zest were two of the strongest online competitors during the pre-season. Cure put up an absurd 81.38% online win-rate during the pre-season, making Zest's 70.97% win-rate seem pedestrian in comparison.

But when IEM Katowice kicked off the 2020-21 season, we learned what the real difference was between the two players. Zest, a multiple-time champion in a bygone era, proved the adage of "class is eternal" to be true, making it all the way to the grand finals before losing to Rogue. Cure, who earned a group-stage seed at IEM Katowice by advancing through the European server qualifier (perhaps his greatest online feat of strength), fizzled out of his group with losses to Serral, sOs, and TY. As it turned out, three months of online play weren't as meaningful as four years of Code S in informing us about Cure's status: that of a player doomed to be hard-stuck in the group stages. It's clear that even without an audience, there's something about offline-play that prevents Cure from playing at his usual level. Either that, or it's that Cure's level stays the same offline, while the truly elite players step up their game when the stakes are raised.

All that said, Cure slots into the #3 Terran in Korea spot by default for now, thanks to TY's slumping results over the last month or so. He took care of business against Dear in the first round of the Super Tournament with a 3-1 win, but was thoroughly beaten by Solar in the following quarterfinal round. Cure is still regularly reaching the finals of online cups, and his online win-rate is just a tick or two below 80% since IEM. Even if you question Cure's ability to win in the later rounds of Code S, you have to think the first group stage a hurdle he should clear, offline jitters be damned. Then again, Cure should have made IEM Katowice his breakout tournament, but still failed to live up to his potential in the end.

As for Zest, his trajectory after IEM Katowice has been fairly steady, continuing to post a 70%-ish win-rate in online cups. Zest looked every bit the title contender when he drubbed TY 3-0 in the first round of the Super Tournament, but suffered a surprising 1-3 loss to Trap in the following round (chalk it up to the randomness of PvP?).

Given the fact that Rogue and sOs, two players who performed well at IEM, were eliminated in the last two groups, it's a worthwhile exercise to ponder how 'real' Zest's IEM run was. His Glaive-Adept style in PvZ factored heavily into his win, allowing him to topple Zerg after Zerg in his climb to the finals. But that very Glaive-Adept style was already over-exposed before the tournament was even over, with Rogue using the knowledge gleaned from 10+ matches to blitz Zest 4-1 in the finals. Zest looks to be a strong player all-around, but without a temporarily game-breaking strategy, the gap between him and his groupmates might not be as wide as it seems.

The World's Weirdest Rivalry: Could Impact upset Zest?

The first two groups featured major upsets where the 3rd best player on paper managed to sneak their way out of the group with a pair of all-in attacks in the decider match. All-ins in critical games? Someone get Impact on the phone! The Team LP Zerg's play-style could be described as a mutation of the soO strain: he's strongest when pumping out waves of units at the Lair stage, but he also has a pathologically dangerous tendency to make a lot of Roaches and Ravagers. It's unclear as to whether this tendency is more harmful to his opponents or himself, but it does add an element of variance to his games that's conducive to upsets. If Impact faces Cure, you know there's going to be a game where Cure goes for a BC rush and Impact counters with a Roach-Ravager timing. Now, would that result in Impact winning outright, or Cure mounting a not-really-a-comeback on the back of triple-orbital Mules? I have no idea, but it would sure be interesting to watch.

Another favorable factor for Impact is that any match he has against Zest seems destined to be a 50/50 coinflip. The two have been embroiled in a bizarre, low-stakes rivalry for years, and it's surprisingly closely contested for two players of such disparate stature. Impact actually has the winning record with a 27-23 all-time record. And if you think that stat is padded by low-stakes online matches, Impact's head-to-head record actually improves significantly to 7-3 when factoring in only offline results.

In short, Zest would be heavily favored against any other Zerg at Impact's relative skill level, but the wonkyness of their specific relationship makes it close 50/50. It's similar to the brutally one-sided Zest-Dear match-up—there's no way Zest should be owning Dear THAT hard, but there's something about the specific relationship that makes it defy StarCraft II logic.

Alright, now that I've covered my ass by pointing out the complicating factors above, I'll proceed to pick Cure and Zest to advance anyway.

Thanks for the $2,500

One of the most notable moments from DongRaeGu's career came during the Code S Season 1 finals in 2012, when he faced off against teammate and close friend Genius. DongRaeGu may have crossed the line with his elderly pal, performing a 'go to the army' ceremony by draping a military uniform and cap on him.

Well, karma is a b... ...aneling, ain't it DongRaeGu?

After returning from his mandatory military service in 2018, DongRaeGu has been living the struggle-life of all the other 'returners.' At the time of writing, he was 25th place in the Aligulac Korea rankings, sandwiched between DynaMite, Patience, and Creator above him, and Polt, TRUE, and Zoun beneath him. He's basically the designated 4th place finisher in this group. Still, you have to imagine he's pleased just to pick up the $2,500 in prize money for qualifying for the RO24, without much aspiration to advancing further.

Still, if one were to hold out some vain hope for DRG, you could look back on some half-year old results. Toward the very start of the pre-season, he participated in AfreecaTV's BJ Destruction Matches: a team tournament held live in the GSL studios. In the best string of competitive results since his comeback, he helped his team "Busan Boys" (together with Fantasy and soO) to the finals with wins against the likes of Rogue, Dark, and INnoVation (twice!).

Predictions:

Zest > DongRaeGu
Cure > Impact
Zest > Cure
Impact > DongRaeGu
Cure > Impact

Zest and Cure to advance.




Credits and acknowledgements

Writer: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Statistics: Aligulac.com & Liquipedia
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TL+ Member
dbRic1203
Profile Joined July 2019
Germany2344 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-16 09:39:03
April 16 2020 09:38 GMT
#2
All the theory crafting around Impact but not the Balls to call him advancing and still going with the obvious choices?
Coward!
Lets see if TY has something to say about that as well
MaxPax | Reynor | Clem
lechatnoir
Profile Joined November 2016
311 Posts
April 16 2020 09:39 GMT
#3
GSL has proven many times that you can't count anybody (well, maybe kiwian) out.This will be fun!
deacon.frost
Profile Joined February 2013
Czech Republic12107 Posts
April 16 2020 09:48 GMT
#4
All that said, Cure slots into the #3 Terran in Korea spot by default for now, thanks to TY's slumping results over the last month or so.

To be fair until TY finds his lost mojo and Dream comes into his former himself there is a big shortage of top Terrans in Korea.

Same applies to Protoss, at least based on the last Stats game I saw which was, uhm, terrible terrible damage bad
I imagine France should be able to take this unless Lilbow is busy practicing for Starcraft III. | KadaverBB is my fairy ban mother.
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
April 16 2020 09:55 GMT
#5
On April 16 2020 18:48 deacon.frost wrote:
Show nested quote +
All that said, Cure slots into the #3 Terran in Korea spot by default for now, thanks to TY's slumping results over the last month or so.

To be fair until TY finds his lost mojo and Dream comes into his former himself there is a big shortage of top Terrans in Korea.

Same applies to Protoss, at least based on the last Stats game I saw which was, uhm, terrible terrible damage bad


Korean Terrans are basically down to Maru and Inno at this point.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
55021 Posts
April 16 2020 10:24 GMT
#6
Feels like Cure's online hot streak is cooling down a bit at this point. Repeat losses against TY, Inno, Zest in the last few weeks where he looked pretty handily outclassed. And still no reason to believe that he's going to start performing consistently on stage and when it matters now.

On the other hand, can I really doubt him against DongRaeGu and Impact?
Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
deacon.frost
Profile Joined February 2013
Czech Republic12107 Posts
April 16 2020 10:26 GMT
#7
On April 16 2020 19:24 Elentos wrote:
Feels like Cure's online hot streak is cooling down a bit at this point. Repeat losses against TY, Inno, Zest in the last few weeks where he looked pretty handily outclassed. And still no reason to believe that he's going to start performing consistently on stage and when it matters now.

On the other hand, can I really doubt him against DongRaeGu and Impact?

Actually you can. OTOH the studio will be mostly empty, so it's almost as playing online So who knows! Everything is possible, especially considering how Rogue lost his RO16
I imagine France should be able to take this unless Lilbow is busy practicing for Starcraft III. | KadaverBB is my fairy ban mother.
DinosaurJones
Profile Joined February 2012
United States1000 Posts
April 16 2020 15:26 GMT
#8
Barely recognized DRG in that picture with his longer hair. Glad to just see his name. I don't see him getting out of the group, but he was one of my favorite players in his prime!
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13459 Posts
April 16 2020 19:02 GMT
#9
DRG <3
Activate Fusion Destiny
Serimek
Profile Joined August 2011
France2273 Posts
April 16 2020 22:06 GMT
#10
DRG may be out, he's still a Code S Champion.
SC2 is the best game to watch and was the best to play before I grew old and slow...
RecklessTempest
Profile Joined July 2018
18 Posts
April 17 2020 07:22 GMT
#11
On April 16 2020 19:26 deacon.frost wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2020 19:24 Elentos wrote:
Feels like Cure's online hot streak is cooling down a bit at this point. Repeat losses against TY, Inno, Zest in the last few weeks where he looked pretty handily outclassed. And still no reason to believe that he's going to start performing consistently on stage and when it matters now.

On the other hand, can I really doubt him against DongRaeGu and Impact?

Actually you can. OTOH the studio will be mostly empty, so it's almost as playing online So who knows! Everything is possible, especially considering how Rogue lost his RO16


IEM was also empty and Cure still didn't look as good there.
Argonauta
Profile Joined July 2016
Spain4140 Posts
April 17 2020 08:30 GMT
#12
On April 17 2020 16:22 RecklessTempest wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2020 19:26 deacon.frost wrote:
On April 16 2020 19:24 Elentos wrote:
Feels like Cure's online hot streak is cooling down a bit at this point. Repeat losses against TY, Inno, Zest in the last few weeks where he looked pretty handily outclassed. And still no reason to believe that he's going to start performing consistently on stage and when it matters now.

On the other hand, can I really doubt him against DongRaeGu and Impact?

Actually you can. OTOH the studio will be mostly empty, so it's almost as playing online So who knows! Everything is possible, especially considering how Rogue lost his RO16


IEM was also empty and Cure still didn't look as good there.



maybe the problem is looking at the face of his opponents?
Rogue | Maru | Scarlett | Trap
TL+ Member
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
April 17 2020 11:40 GMT
#13
On April 17 2020 17:30 Argonauta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 17 2020 16:22 RecklessTempest wrote:
On April 16 2020 19:26 deacon.frost wrote:
On April 16 2020 19:24 Elentos wrote:
Feels like Cure's online hot streak is cooling down a bit at this point. Repeat losses against TY, Inno, Zest in the last few weeks where he looked pretty handily outclassed. And still no reason to believe that he's going to start performing consistently on stage and when it matters now.

On the other hand, can I really doubt him against DongRaeGu and Impact?

Actually you can. OTOH the studio will be mostly empty, so it's almost as playing online So who knows! Everything is possible, especially considering how Rogue lost his RO16


IEM was also empty and Cure still didn't look as good there.



maybe the problem is looking at the face of his opponents?


Nah, Cure plays online tournaments on a sideways laptop while lying in bed. The tournament organizers won't let him replicate that setup, so he always chokes offline.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
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