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Code S RO16 Preview: Maru, Solar, Stats, Rogue

Forum Index > SC2 General
41 CommentsPost a Reply
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Code S RO16 Preview: Maru, Solar, Stats, Rogue

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
September 3rd, 2019 00:49 GMT

Code S Season 3 - RO16 Group C:
Maru, Solar, Stats, Rogue

Start time: Wednesday, Sep 04 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Wax

StarCraft II fans have zero restraint in using the term 'group of death,' with every tournament requiring at least one group to receive such a designation. It's devalued the term to the degree that we have to send out a special disclaimer this time around: ladies and gentlemen, this is a REAL group of death.

Is it, tho?

More info: GSL Code S Season 3 on Liquipedia


Months after the end of Maru's incredible 4-Code S winning streak, I'm left thinking we somehow didn't give him enough credit at the time. Ironically, I also feel like he's not getting enough criticism now. Of course, in terms of historical accomplishments, that four-GSL streak means he's going to headline every single group he competes in until the end of time, akin to Flash or Boxer in Brood War. But in this very moment, a day away from Maru's Code S Ro16 group, you have to admit he hasn't really done anything to justify being called the heavy-hitter of the group.

After a disaster Code S Season 2 where he was kicked out in the Ro32, Maru just barely evaded a second straight Ro32 elimination in season 3 by limping out of his group in second place (losing to TY but winning vs Super and Impact for a 5-4 total map score). He then had the tar kicked out of him by Stats in the first round of GSL vs. The World, with Stats seemingly getting the better of him at every stage of the game. The only impressive thing we've seen from Maru in months was his 4-0 drubbing) of Reynor at WCG—something of a showmatch, but a showmatch worth $25,000.

And still, I feel stupid and afraid about casting any doubt on Maru's abilities, because, you know, he did happen to win his fourth straight Code S tournament less than THREE F***ING MONTHS AGO. Look, all I'm saying is that if INnoVation regularly gets "you never know with INnoVation...." hype when he hasn't won a tournament for a YEAR, then Maru probably deserves a healthy dose of past credit too.

As a seeded player, Maru was able to choose Solar as his initial opponent during the July group selections, but it doesn't seem like much of an advantage anymore.

In fact, if you post 'I actually think Solar is the best player in this group, considering everyone's current form,' I will award you a total of zero hipster points. That would fit right in an [unpopular opinion] post on Reddit. Ever since Solar was eliminated in the Ro32 of season two, he's gone on to 1) Finish second place at ASUS ROG Summer (14-1 before meeting Stats in the finals), 2) lead Triumphant Song Gaming to the China Team Championship title, 3) put up a near 70% map win-rate across ALL competitions, 4) ace his Code S Ro32 group with wins over Trap and Patience.

None of those things on their own scream obvious title contender, but it's an amazing run of good form from Solar, the likes of which we haven't seen in years. Unfortunately, his ZvZ has brought him down in a number of high-profile events, such as his top eight finish at HomeStory Cup (losses to Elazer and soO), and another top eight finish at China's GPC Season 1 (1-3 loss to iAsonu).

That could mean trouble for Solar if he has to face Rogue, another player looking to bounce back after a poor showing in the previous season. The spring of Protoss all-ins completely derailed Rogue's 2019 campaign—after getting bounced from the first round of the GSL Super Tournament #1 by Hurricane, he was eliminated in the Code S RO32, failed to garner any serious votes for GSL vs. The World, and get this: recorded one win and two draws in the China Team Championship Season 1 (he got his win vs XY while giving up draws to Firefly and Wanted. If you have to ask "who?" then the point has already been made).

Rogue tends to play in a lot of online competitions when not on GSL duty, and that's where we've been getting a whiff of his recovery. Left without much do since finishing his early Code S RO32 group (wins vs PartinG and aLive) back in early July, Rogue has put up an impressive 24-10 record in online matches (with a 67-33 map score) ever since. Now, I'm very case-by-case about looking into online stats. If they're put up by Zest, I throw them in the trash. If they're recorded by Trap? Maybe there's something there. In Rogue's case, I'm inclined to believe they could be indicative of real improvement, since he was absolutely, sub 50% win-rate dreadful during the period encompassing his Super Tournament and Code S Season 2 eliminations.

That leaves us with Stats, the only player in the group who wasn't eliminated in the Ro32 of the previous season. Indeed, Stats was merely eliminated in the Ro16, the very round that GSL/Korean elitists denigrate as 'free' and non-meaningful when foreigners manage to advance. No, I wasn't going anywhere with that thought—just wanted to throw it out there.

Anyway, at the time of writing, the majority of fans were picking Stats as the one bringing 'death' to this group. Stats comes in with recent wins against Maru, Solar, AND Serral at major offline events, so who else were they supposed to pick? Even if 2019 has been a poor Code S year (Ro32 season 1, Ro16 season 2) for the usually well-rounded Stats, he's more than earned his fearsome reputation at 'weekender' style events. After ceding the spotlight to soO in the finals of IEM Katowice, Stats managed to steal the show at ASUS ROG Summer where he beat Solar and Serral to win the championship. While Neeb did throw some cold water on his hot streak at GSL vs. The World, there's no PvP to hamper Stats here.

One has to wonder how much the odd timing of the group selections was responsible for this group. The groups were picked before HomeStory Cup, ASUS ROG and GSL vs The World—a cluster of tournaments that saw Stats' reputation improve hugely, and Solar to a lesser degree. Perhaps progamers are more apt to trust their intuition from playing their peers on ladder, but I somehow doubt we'd get this exact same group if there was a redraft.

Predictions: So, yeah, this IS a group of death. But in that overused, cliched way. Which is fine! Hype is cool. StarCraft is cool. Getting hyped for StarCraft is cool! Not every group of death has to be like THAT one from 2013.

I have to take Stats to advance in first place here. While I believe Solar and Rogue are 'for real,' there's no better PvZ player in the world in a tournament setting. I'm also taking Maru to advance in second place. While I fancy myself a 'results over reputation' type of guy, I'll have to make an exception this time. I mean, if Maru can't get past credit right now, there's no way I could justify extending anyone past credit ever again.

Maru > Solar
Stats > Rogue
Stats > Maru
Rogue > Solar
Maru > Rogue

Stats and Maru to advance.



Credits and acknowledgements

Writers: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Statistics: Aligulac.com
Facebook Twitter Reddit
TL+ Member
ThunderJunk
Profile Joined December 2015
United States706 Posts
September 03 2019 01:56 GMT
#2
Great writeup!
I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do.
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16955 Posts
September 03 2019 02:18 GMT
#3
I feel like each successive preview is getting more tongue-in-cheek .

Pretty interesting that Rogue is doing so well online (including a 5-0 against online Stats).
WhereTo
Profile Joined July 2019
2 Posts
September 03 2019 06:26 GMT
#4
Thanks for the article. It was a good read!
Poaktree
Profile Joined January 2017
165 Posts
September 03 2019 06:43 GMT
#5
You hyped Solar pretty nicely but then b-slapped him out with 0-2! What the hell man? He's getting the first place!
Dave4
Profile Joined August 2018
494 Posts
September 03 2019 06:49 GMT
#6
Thanks Wax,

If there's one tournament (and there is only one - ok two with WCG) that Maru is good at, it's GSL Code S. However one of his biggest helpers in Rogue is pitted against him here. We will see if his team house can help push him through.

I'm feeling Stats / Rogue personally though.
lolfail9001
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation40190 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-03 07:01:47
September 03 2019 07:01 GMT
#7
I somehow feel wrong about you not bringing up that Zest/Maru/Dear/Soulkey group. I guess random seeded groups of death just don't have the same oomph.
DeMoN pulls off a Miracle and Flies to the Moon
Shuffleblade
Profile Joined February 2012
Sweden1903 Posts
September 03 2019 07:17 GMT
#8
Marus weakness has always been groups, since he cant prepare as thoroughly for group as you can for a single opponent. He has managed his streak in large parts because his championship perk of making a player trade in groupselection, therefore geting easy groups.

There is a low chance Maru can come out on top in a group of death, Stats got Marus number for sure, especially in a bo3. Then the question remains, can Solar take out Maru? In Solars current form it is very possible, at Asus rog he took down both Inno and Gumi. Could Rogue take Maru down in a teamkill? Yes, in a teamkill that is definitely possible, consider that since them are in the same group Rogue got Cure to practise with and Maru got.... Rex?

Every single matchup looks dicey and Maru is famed for barely making it out of groups where is the heavy favorite. Im a huge Maru fan and I will cheer for him but it looks awefully bleak.
Maru, Bomber, TY, Dear, Classic, DeParture and Rogue!
Granas1
Profile Joined August 2015
15 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-03 07:46:21
September 03 2019 07:45 GMT
#9
The good old group of dicks :D
you also made my day with the "zero hipstar points"
Thank you for the great writing
dysenterymd
Profile Joined January 2019
1248 Posts
September 03 2019 07:51 GMT
#10
Other than being Maru, Maru has shown nothing in the past few months to suggest he's going to advance.

Although honestly, being Maru might be enough.
Serral | Inno | sOs | soO | Has | Classic
Z3nith
Profile Joined October 2017
485 Posts
September 03 2019 08:37 GMT
#11
On September 03 2019 16:51 dysenterymd wrote:
Other than being Maru, Maru has shown nothing in the past few months to suggest he's going to advance.

Although honestly, being Maru might be enough.


It was supposed to be good enough for GSL Vs The World.
ConqDK
Profile Joined March 2019
4 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-03 08:54:22
September 03 2019 08:53 GMT
#12
Rogue will take this! Never stop believing.
BerserkSword
Profile Joined December 2018
United States2123 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-03 09:23:05
September 03 2019 09:16 GMT
#13
On September 03 2019 16:17 Shuffleblade wrote:
Marus weakness has always been groups, since he cant prepare as thoroughly for group as you can for a single opponent. He has managed his streak in large parts because his championship perk of making a player trade in groupselection, therefore geting easy groups.

There is a low chance Maru can come out on top in a group of death, Stats got Marus number for sure, especially in a bo3. Then the question remains, can Solar take out Maru? In Solars current form it is very possible, at Asus rog he took down both Inno and Gumi. Could Rogue take Maru down in a teamkill? Yes, in a teamkill that is definitely possible, consider that since them are in the same group Rogue got Cure to practise with and Maru got.... Rex?

Every single matchup looks dicey and Maru is famed for barely making it out of groups where is the heavy favorite. Im a huge Maru fan and I will cheer for him but it looks awefully bleak.


Yea this is THE most dangerous group maru couldve asked for imo aside from Stats Solar TY

Like you said stats seems to have maru's number bigtime nowadays.

Solar is at worst at top 3 ZvT player in the world - Personally I have him as a close No. 2

Rogue is the best JAGW player besides maru in the tournament.

That said this is Maru we are talking about. He has the ability to beat anyone and saying he has a low chance to make it out vs Solar and Rogue is a bit unfair to him imo since his TvZ is beast and his recent woes in the GSL have been at the hands of Protoss and Terran players. (edit: i misread and thought u said there's a low chance that maru can come out , not come out on top)

This is just one hell of a dangerous group for him. Stats is his biggest threat.

Anyway my liquibet is stats solar, but iw ouldnt even be surprised if it ends up rogue maru
TL+ Member
Argonauta
Profile Joined July 2016
Spain4954 Posts
September 03 2019 09:26 GMT
#14
amazing writeup! I love when writes acknowledge contradictions in their thoughts. Yes, there are some doubts and shades alll over that set of players and the fact that only 2 can advance when I would love to see them all in the Ro8 makes it soooo drama intesive.... OMG is going to be amazing!
Rogue | Maru | Scarlett | Trap
TL+ Member
FBTsingLoong
Profile Joined April 2018
China410 Posts
September 03 2019 09:32 GMT
#15
Truly a death group,hope Stats will advance.
TyInnoMaruByunAlive,TIMBA
Poopi
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France12904 Posts
September 03 2019 10:38 GMT
#16
I can see Stats playing awfully bad and not getting out. Rogue is in a bad spot for BlizzCon so he might manage to sneak in.

I predict (T)Maru and (Z)Rogue.
WriterMaru
DSh1
Profile Joined April 2017
292 Posts
September 03 2019 11:27 GMT
#17
Nice article
Musicus
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany23576 Posts
September 03 2019 11:33 GMT
#18
Stats and Maru, because both are so good vs Zerg.

Thanks for the preview!
Maru and Serral are probably top 5.
brickrd
Profile Blog Joined March 2014
United States4894 Posts
September 03 2019 11:42 GMT
#19
i have a feeling maru might just show up with patch builds and 4-0 the group into space
TL+ Member
Shuffleblade
Profile Joined February 2012
Sweden1903 Posts
September 03 2019 12:10 GMT
#20
Realized I forgot to mention it but this is the best preview I've read in a while, really enjoyed it thanks!
Maru, Bomber, TY, Dear, Classic, DeParture and Rogue!
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