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Code S RO16 Preview: Classic, RagnaroK, Hurricane, FanTaSy

Forum Index > SC2 General
28 CommentsPost a Reply
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Code S RO16 Preview: Classic, RagnaroK, Hurricane, FanTaSy

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
May 21st, 2019 03:27 GMT

Code S RO16 Group A Preview:
Classic, RagnaroK, Hurricane, FanTaSy

by Destructicon

Start time: Wednesday, May 22 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

It's time for GSL competition to heat up a notch as we enter the round-of-sixteen. Maru's early elimination will have many of his past victims eager to take advantage of his absence and take aim at the title, but they'll have to take care not to suffer elimination themselves in this season of upsets.

Classic

With the ability to pick TWO of their RO16 opponents, the #1 seeded player in the Code S group nominations is usually guaranteed a cream puff group. With Maru eliminated early, that privilege passed down to Classic this season, and he was indeed able to craft himself a fairly easy group. In fact, he was so pleased with his group’s final composition that he elected to not even exercise his final swap privilege.

While Classic does face the difficulty of having to prepare for all three race match-ups, he doesn’t really need to fear any of his opponents in particular. All three players are performing poorly against Protoss, with RagnaroK actually having the best vs P win-rate at 50% (13-13 win-loss) over the past 2 months, while FanTaSy and Hurricane sit at a mere 32% and 31% respectively over the same period.

As a GSL Code S runner-up and Super Tournament champion in 2019, Classic seems like one of the biggest favorites to win the Code S championship in this Maru-less season. However, it's worth repeating that this has been a season of upsets, with Patience playing a part in eliminating Maru, FanTaSy contributing to Rogue's downfall, and RagnaroK ushering TY out of the RO32. Classic should prepare with all of his usual diligence lest he get blindsided by his ambitious opponents.

RagnaroK

RagnaroK has once again managed to surprise us after reaching the RO12 playoffs at March's IEM Katowice. While it was impressive to see him defeat GuMiho, INnoVation, and Solar in the IEM group stages, it seemed more like a fluky performance when he lost 2-3 to PartinG in the first round of the Super Tournament. When he was put into a Code S group alongside sOs, TY and SpeCial, it seemed a far stretch to imagine he could escape the RO32.

Yet RagnaroK did just that, dodging sOs but administering a double knockout against his Terran opponents. RagnaroK impressed by outplaying his more accomplished opponents in macro games, reminding us that he nearly even beat Maru in the last season of Code S before blowing his in-game lead. However, his underdog journey might come to an end right here as he must defeat at least one Protoss to advance. While his ZvP record isn’t bad per se, it's not like his ZvT where he's several beaten high-profile players in major offline tournaments. Furthermore, the two Protosses have been monstrous against Zerg in the past two months, with Classic going 7-0 in matches (15-6 map score) and Hurricane going 17-8 in maps. Classic looks like a particularly fearsome opponent, having beaten all of Korea's 'top' Zergs in Dark, Rogue, soO and Solar, while Hurricane has bested Rogue and Solar.

It's clear that RagnaroK has the ZvT chops to take down FanTaSy, so his best bet might be to go ham on preparing for what could be a series of decisive matches against Hurricane.

Hurricane

Hurricane's form has fluctuated quite a lot this year. After early year eliminations from Code S RO32 and from the IEM Katowice open bracket, his PvZ let him rebound from those lackluster performances. A 3-1 victory over Rogue saw him reach the quarterfinals of the Super Tournament, and he's playing in his first Code S RO16 in over a year thanks to two RO32 victories over Solar.

I actually like Hurricane's chances in this group. His very shaky PvP series against PartinG in the Super Tournament makes it seem like he's not gonna make the cut against Classic, but he still has a solid shot against the two other group members. I’ve already mentioned that his PvZ is quite strong, but he also has decent results in PvT as well with victories against TY in the Super Tournament qualifier, and against TaeJa and aLive in the Code S qualifier. If this turns into a battle for 2nd place, Hurricane may very well be the favorite.

FanTaSy

FanTaSy is quite hard to get a read on. His Aligulac stats make the outlook seem bleak in this two-Protoss group, but at least his TvZ has been solid. He showed a lot of strategic variety in his against matches Leenock and Rogue in the RO32, but unfortunately, there's only one Zerg player in this group, and that Zerg won his most impressive victories in ZvT.

On paper, FanTaSy's win-rate against Protoss is atrocious. And yet, FanTaSy did play a close 1-2 series vs Stats in the RO32, where he prepared a variety of unusual builds to try and get an advantage (mech vs Protoss, liberator range rush). And, during the group nominations, FanTaSy didn't seem concerned with his group composition—rather, he seemed pretty happy with how it all turned out.

I don’t really have much faith in FanTaSy to show up with elite TvP after a week of prep, but he might just be able to pull off an upset if he can surprise Hurricane with some of his wonkier strategies.

Prediction
I think Classic will take group A quite handily—he has the skills, the resume, and experience with GSL-style preparation on his side. As for the rest of the players, this is looking much like one of Maru's RO16 groups from 2018, where everyone seems to have a reasonable chance at taking second place. I think Hurricane has the best shot at coming out after Classic. He's an inconsistent player without many notable GSL results, but that can also be said of RagnaroK and FanTaSy. However, the stats say that Hurricane has the advantage in the individual race match-ups, giving him the edge over his competitors.

Classic 2 – 0 RagnaroK
Hurricane 2 – 1 FanTaSy
Classic 2 – 0 Hurricane
RagnaroK 2 – 1 FanTaSy
Hurricane 2 – 1 RagnaroK

Classic and Hurricane to advance.



Credits and acknowledgements

Writer: Destructicon,
Editor: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Statistics: Aligulac.com
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TL+ Member
SamirDuran
Profile Joined May 2012
Philippines894 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-21 03:55:27
May 21 2019 03:54 GMT
#2
I hope fantasy goes through but with his current form,i'll think he'll not go through.
Don't practice until you can get it right, practice until you can't get it wrong.
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-21 04:18:00
May 21 2019 04:12 GMT
#3
Fantasy is the real hero of the Korean scene, fighting not for himself but for all returned veterans present and future. Even Classic has to be cheering for Fantasy, what with his own enlistment looming.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
pdd
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Australia9933 Posts
May 21 2019 04:53 GMT
#4
On May 21 2019 13:12 pvsnp wrote:
Fantasy is the real hero of the Korean scene, fighting not for himself but for all returned veterans present and future. Even Classic has to be cheering for Fantasy, what with his own enlistment looming.

Fantasy is also fighting for the soul of SC2 in Korea. He could have had a more rewarding career in BW streaming and tourneys when he came back (he was afterall one of the best, if not the best BW players at the end of KeSPA BW days).

Yet he chose SC2, a game where he didn't have as much success.

Hoping for a huge Fantasy success.
TI4 Champions: EE-Sama | B7-God | A-God_2000 | Kappa Lord | pieliedie
Htime
Profile Joined March 2019
58 Posts
May 21 2019 06:49 GMT
#5
Aligulac seems to agree that Classic has selected a great group for him (87%!), but I am more impressed that Hurricane has gotten himself into such a favorable group (60+% to advance), when he is the ~12th best player left in the tourney.

On the other hand, it is sad to see RagnaroK dealt such a bad hand with this group. The Zerg has a slightly lower chance to advance than FanTaSy, who is going to play him much tougher vs the other players in the group (+300 TvZ vs TvP).

Expectation: 1.47 Protoss to advance to Ro8, with Zerg and Terran needing some upsets to advance.
+ Show Spoiler +

                   Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
----------------------------------------------------------------
Classic 86.94% 59.00% 27.94% 8.14% 4.92%
Hurricane 60.43% 22.80% 37.63% 24.53% 15.04%
RagnaroK 26.04% 9.47% 16.57% 32.05% 41.91%
FanTaSy 26.59% 8.73% 17.85% 35.28% 38.13%

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.
Htime
Profile Joined March 2019
58 Posts
May 21 2019 07:14 GMT
#6
Expectation: 1.47 Protoss to advance to Ro8

This was a scary thought, so I quickly ran the numbers to calm my heart rate:
Group A: 1.47
Group B: 0.83
Group C: 1.24
Group D: 0.66
Total: 4.20 Protoss in Ro8
Whew, no other group is nearly as Protoss favored, and overall about what you would expect for 8 Protoss in the Ro16. Without Maru, TY, Rogue, or Solar, it seems like at least 4 Protoss is a certainty for the Ro8.

+ Show Spoiler +

                 Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
--------------------------------------------------------------
soO 67.48% 37.34% 30.14% 18.71% 13.80%
Dear 51.95% 25.03% 26.92% 25.08% 22.97%
GuMiho 49.79% 24.64% 25.14% 25.87% 24.35%
PartinG 30.78% 12.98% 17.80% 30.34% 38.88%

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.
                 Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
--------------------------------------------------------------
Trap 65.84% 36.36% 29.48% 19.16% 15.00%
herO 57.66% 28.95% 28.71% 23.30% 19.04%
Impact 44.70% 20.85% 23.85% 27.69% 27.61%
SpeCial 31.80% 13.84% 17.96% 29.85% 38.35%

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.
                    Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Dark 73.69% 43.68% 30.01% 16.09% 10.22%
INnoVation 60.47% 28.34% 32.13% 24.45% 15.08%
Stats 48.73% 21.12% 27.61% 30.81% 20.46%
Patience 17.11% 6.86% 10.25% 28.65% 54.24%

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

arkpra
Profile Joined July 2018
Poland7 Posts
May 21 2019 09:28 GMT
#7
I think Fantasy will win vs Hurricane. He took 1 map vs Stats.
Need
Profile Joined March 2019
566 Posts
May 21 2019 10:01 GMT
#8
Lol taking Aligulac this seriously. What Aligulac won't tell you is that Hurricane is the closest GSL has to a patch hero, while Ragnarok is a well-rounded solid player. Classic and Ragnarok to advance
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany6902 Posts
May 21 2019 10:11 GMT
#9
Gogo Fantasy!! He can do this!
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
renaissanceMAN
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1840 Posts
May 21 2019 11:56 GMT
#10
I want Fantasy to wreck dreams with some stupid build that doesn’t work unless he does it.
On August 15 2013 03:43 Waxangel wrote: no amount of money can replace the enjoyment of being mean to people on the internet
HolydaKing
Profile Joined February 2010
21254 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-21 13:04:09
May 21 2019 13:03 GMT
#11
Cheering for Hurricane and Fantasy. Gonna be hard for Fantasy though.

Moonerz
Profile Joined March 2014
United States444 Posts
May 21 2019 15:33 GMT
#12
Really think Fantasy has a good chance of advancing here. If it comes down to Fanta vs Ragnarok at the end I feel like the pressure might get to Ragnarok.

Obviously Classic gets out pretty comfortably.
washikie
Profile Joined February 2011
United States752 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-21 18:43:48
May 21 2019 18:43 GMT
#13
Fantasy fighting!
"when life gives Hero lemons he makes carriers" -Artosis
veniss
Profile Joined August 2018
75 Posts
May 21 2019 20:16 GMT
#14
Fingers crossed for Fantasy. My hope/thinking is Classic/Hurricane have to prepare for three matchups, and Ragnarok and Fantasy just have to practice for two. Some good builds from Fantasy with a little luck, and I think he can make ro8.
Akio
Profile Blog Joined January 2019
Finland1838 Posts
May 21 2019 21:38 GMT
#15
Let's go FanTa!!
Mine gas, build tanks.
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19230 Posts
May 21 2019 23:18 GMT
#16
This group has a real tough two to predict given the upsets in this tournament. I can't wait. The three low tier players have worked so hard on their careers that I wish them all success.
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
Bub
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
United States3518 Posts
May 22 2019 01:48 GMT
#17
Tempting to stay up to watch this. Fantasy fighting!
XK ßubonic
blooblooblahblah
Profile Joined February 2011
Australia4163 Posts
May 22 2019 06:48 GMT
#18
Hard to predict this one (other than Classic who is a pretty safe bet to get out of this group). I'm really impressed with Ragnarok's play atm but he has 2 protoss players who are on fire in PvZ atm, while Ragnarok's ZvP isn't particularly good imo. Hurricane seems to be a decent pick since his PvZ is so good right now and his PvT is good enough to beat Fantasy. Fantasy is the underdog against both Ragnarok and Hurricane but he's still good enough to beat them and his style is so strange that anything could happen.
Ganzi beat me without stim. Ostojiy beat me with a nydus. Siphonn beat me with probes. Revival beat my sentry-immortal all-in.
Veluvian
Profile Joined December 2011
Bulgaria256 Posts
May 22 2019 07:33 GMT
#19
I am really inspired by Hurricane play in Ro32 so I will cheer for him rather I wouldn't mind to see the rest of the players ahead. Ragnarok impressed a lot in the hardest group in Ro32. But the good play is different from the high class which is based upon consistency. And the zerg must prove that. Fantasy is a veteran who really makes this Code S Season 2 more freshy and interesting with his presence.
Group A looks much like the same group in last leason but back then Bunny surprised us.
For Classic I don't know what to say unless he should take the tournament as simple as that. He or Dark. Please.
Oz; MMA; Rain; sOs; Classic, Soulkey, TY, Dark
seemsgood
Profile Joined January 2016
5527 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-22 08:35:05
May 22 2019 08:32 GMT
#20
new tournament thread ?passion?? anybody?
someone with great power gotta take this great responsibility man
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