|
So this is just a little bit of fun on my part and something that I've considered doing for a while in various different formats. I was originally toying with the idea of doing a top 3 for each race but now that we've had the GSL Ro16 groups confirmed I figured I'd take a quick dive into who I consider to be the contenders for the next GSL title. I'm sure I'm not going to be entirely correct on this but hey, who is?
The format is simple: I have chosen five players from the Ro16 I consider to be serious contenders for the title and one outside bet that has the potential to make a deep run in the tournament and maybe even win the thing. So without further ado, Let's get into it.
No. 1: Classic
This should come as no surprise to anyone really considering the form Classic has been in lately. Having already won a premier title in the GSL Super Tournament and making the finals of the previous GSL the chintoss is in fine form. In fact since the turn of the year, Classic has only lost one offline match (that being the Bo.7 GSL finals to Maru) making him the player to beat now that Maru has gone out. Possessing possibly the best PvP in the world right now, as well as being incredibly solid in both other matchups it is hard to look past Classic as the favourite for this season's GSL.
And it's hardly as if Classic's group is particularly difficult either. Consisting of RagnaroK, FanTaSy and Hurricane besides himself, it's hard to see Classic doing anything but topping this group. But you never know, stranger things have happened in the GSL.
No. 2: Dark
Where would a list like this be without the bad boy of the Korean Scene? Dark has a strong claim to being one of the main contenders for this season on the back of impressive semi-final runs in both Season 1 and IEM Katowice, however, his tendency to choke at the semi-final stage can't be understated. Since the beginning of 2018 Dark has only progressed twice past the premier semi-finals stage out of seven tries (Those being at GSL Super Tournament Season 1 2018 and WESG 2017) and if one looks at his record in just the GSL it makes for even grimmer reading. Dark has never made a GSL final in his career which for such a high calibre player is quite shocking. Furthermore, Dark appears to be somewhat fragile to top tier Protoss having been handed an 0-2 loss in IEM Katowice by Dear and losing to Classic 3-4 in the GSL season 1 semi-finals. He was also bested by GuMiho in the GSL ST1 2-3 in the Ro. 16.
The group he's in is also a far harder challenge than the likes of Classic. Stats and InnoVation both present rivals that historically Dark has struggled to overcome when it counts while Patience is just an absolute mad man who is likely to pull out God knows what in order to try and force a win. However, should Dark get out of his Ro.16 group, he is likely to be met with a significantly easier quarter finals opponent than anyone in his group so the key for Dark is to get out of the Ro.16.
No. 3: Stats
It really is a testament to Stats' consistency that he has been a constant contender for the GSL title since probably the beginning of 2017. The second best Protoss in the world after Classic currently, Stats has already made a premier finals appearance at IEM Katowice. While results elsewhere have been somewhat disappointment (a Ro.32 exit in GSL S1 and losing in the Quarter-Finals of the GSL ST) the protoss player seems to be in the form currently that had him dubbed The Shield of Aiur back in 2018. He breezed through his Ro.32 group claiming the scalps of Leenock and FantaSy along the way, seeming unfazed throughout. While, his PvP is probably second only to Classic's currently but it is hard to tell where his PvZ and PvT are right now. With PvZ it is mainly down to the lack of games he has played against top tier Zergs combined with the very new Robo meta which makes it hard to pinpoint exactly where he stands while in PvT he contested arguably the best game of the year so far against Maru only to lose 0-3 GuMiho immediately after in the Super Tournament.
In theory Stats should make it out of his group without too much of a problem. InnoVation is having some well documented problems with his PvT currently which should mean that Stats is favoured in his first match of the Ro.16 while his history with Dark we've already mentioned. As for Patience, Stats has not lost to him since 2017 going 5-0 in series since then. All things point towards Stats making out of his group.
No. 4: InnoVation
Now I'm going to preface this by saying this could so easily have been GuMiho. In fact it probably should be based on GuMiho's recent finals run in the GSL ST. However, it's not. See despite him being notably weak in PvT with the very real possibility of having to play Patience in the loser's bracket of his group, if he can fix his PvT he will have quite an easy ride out of his group. Boasting pretty solid TvZ and TvT the only thing really holding him back is his inability the previously mentioned matchup. The problem is that it is very hard to bet against InnoVation. He is one of those players that can just turn up one day, switch on and then cut a swathe through his opposition. He's already won one premier tournament this year in WESG, going through both the no.1 Terran and no.1 Zerg at the time showing his credentials in those match ups but like I have said his TvP is godawful at the moment (insert joke about InnoVation not being able to play in a poor meta here).
Whether or not he makes it out of his group hinges in his TvP. Going up against Stats first will not be easy but if he were to beat him the likelihood is he'd be looking at Dark which is a very winnable match up for The Machine. From there he would be poised to make a deep run into the GSL bracket and potentially win the entire thing. However, if his TvP is still as poor as it has been recently there is also a very good chance that he just bottoms out of his group.
No. 5: soO
Like InnoVation it is arguable as to whether or not soO should be on this list but its my list so if you don't like it write your own. soO makes for an interesting study as his ZvP winrate is sitting at a pretty abysmal 42% according to Aligulac while his first opponent is Dear, who beat him 2-1 in the Ro.32. However, all is not lost for the Angry Zerg. Besides Dear, the other two players in his group are GuMiho and PartinG. Against GuMiho, soO has been doing quite well recently (beating him 6-1 online on May 5th) while PartinG's weakest matchup is his PvZ, sitting at 53% compared to 57% in Pvt and 61% in PvP. As such soO may actually be in a position to exploit this, maybe not getting out in first but very possibly getting out of the group. And once soO gets into the knockout stages more often than not he's headed straight for the finals which, with a little newfound belief from winning IEM, could spur him on to lift the trophy he's coveted for so long now.
Like I've already said, I don't think soO will be the first out of his group as I think Dear does just have his number. However, I would favour him against both PartinG and GuMiho and, should he avoid Classic and Stats in the knock outs, I can easily see him picking up the steam which carries him all the way to the GSL title.
The Outside Bet: PartinG
There were four players I had in mind when I was considering who to pick for this dark horse and those were FantaSy, GuMiho, Trap and PartinG. All of these players are well known for various reasons, FantaSy being an often meta-defining player, GuMiho being the Mech God and Trap being Gemini's God. However, I chose PartinG.
There were three reasons for that. Firstly, PartinG has come off a respectable semi-finals finish in GSL ST which no one really expected in which he acquitted himself rather well in beating both RagnaroK and Hurricane eventually falling to GuMiho. Secondly, I personally feel that the winner of this GSL is most likely to be a Protoss which may seem pretty obvious considering the racial distribution. But the main reason is the way he prepared for his ro.32 group. He had an incredible variety of builds that used a range of skills from cheese to surprisingly strong macro (as seen in his last game against Cure) which is exactly the sort of thing you are going to need when going into the later stages of this tournament considering how preparation orientated it is. While I'm not even sure if PartinG will make it out of his group, if he does I can definitely see him making quite a few surprise upsets and he may even make it all the way.
So there you go guys. I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed writing it and who knows? Maybe I'll write another.
|
Korea (South)227 Posts
I just wish soO wouldn't pull the "It doesn't matter, I'm going to get knocked out" phrase everytime in his streams though 
I know its just because he's exhausted, and by all means he really is (so many years of pro-gaming after all) but I feel a little let down he's saying such things nonchalantly. Hopefully he does better, as does INno although yeah, his PvT basically means he's dead in the water unless he patches it up.
|
Canada8989 Posts
Cool read, although I think Gumiho should be the outside bet after his ST final.
|
On May 16 2019 01:23 Orlok wrote:I just wish soO wouldn't pull the "It doesn't matter, I'm going to get knocked out" phrase everytime in his streams though I know its just because he's exhausted, and by all means he really is (so many years of pro-gaming after all) but I feel a little let down he's saying such things nonchalantly. Hopefully he does better, as does INno although yeah, his PvT basically means he's dead in the water unless he patches it up.
I feel the same. I understand he got the ultimate win at IEM and already got a ticket to BlizzCon. However, I still want him to fight for a GSL victory like he has been doing for so long. His games have been very sloppy. I wonder if his IEM win is worth it as it broke the curse but he may not make out group stage at all this year.
|
i understand that everybody is happy that PartinG is back in business... but seriously: no
|
On May 16 2019 03:19 StabiloBoss20 wrote:
i understand that everybody is happy that PartinG is back in business... but seriously: no
Have a little hope 
|
OP I don't think you've seen Innovation 5-1 Classic in a $300 showmatch a couple days ago. He isn't really that weak in TvP. He played like a monster against Classic.
|
On May 16 2019 05:31 NinjaNight wrote:
OP I don't think you've seen Innovation 5-1 Classic in a $300 showmatch a couple days ago. He isn't really that weak in TvP. He played like a monster against Classic.
Trap said in the group selections that he thinks Inno looks pretty lost in TvP. Probably why people are saying that
|
On May 16 2019 05:38 Moonerz wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2019 05:31 NinjaNight wrote:
OP I don't think you've seen Innovation 5-1 Classic in a $300 showmatch a couple days ago. He isn't really that weak in TvP. He played like a monster against Classic. Trap said in the group selections that he thinks Inno looks pretty lost in TvP. Probably why people are saying that
InnoVation lost to Patience in his ro.32 group 2-0, lost to both sOs and PartinG in the super tournament qualifiers 2-0 and 2-1 respectively and went out in the ro.16 of GSL season 1 losing to sOs and Trap 2-1 and 2-0 respectively. The last time InnoVation won a best of anything in a premier tournament against Protoss was when he 3-1'd Rail in WESG. While beating Classic 5-1 is impressive, his form vP currently stands at 58% compared 68% vZ and 71% vT which I'm sure you'll agree is significantly worse.
|
|
|
Northern Ireland26442 Posts
On May 16 2019 06:22 Z3nith wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2019 05:38 Moonerz wrote:On May 16 2019 05:31 NinjaNight wrote:
OP I don't think you've seen Innovation 5-1 Classic in a $300 showmatch a couple days ago. He isn't really that weak in TvP. He played like a monster against Classic. Trap said in the group selections that he thinks Inno looks pretty lost in TvP. Probably why people are saying that InnoVation lost to Patience in his ro.32 group 2-0, lost to both sOs and PartinG in the super tournament qualifiers 2-0 and 2-1 respectively and went out in the ro.16 of GSL season 1 losing to sOs and Trap 2-1 and 2-0 respectively. The last time InnoVation won a best of anything in a premier tournament against Protoss was when he 3-1'd Rail in WESG. While beating Classic 5-1 is impressive, his form vP currently stands at 58% compared 68% vZ and 71% vT which I'm sure you'll agree is significantly worse.
My hope rather counter-intuitively is that Inno has been quite so relatively bad at vP for a reasonably sustained period, combined with current tournaments being borderline impossible to avoid playing vP that it’s sufficient motivation for him to grind the matchup. Outside of why exactly his vP isn’t great, he at least has a clear identifiable weakness that he realistically has needed to fix for a period. Of course it’s easier said than done. He’s also avoided having a Terran, he’s got two Protoss one Z rather than the other way round, so in a way I’d almost fancy him more than having a T in his group and all three matchups, or him succumbing to the temptation to rely on his vZ and ending up going out in a vP anyway.
I quite fancy Trap to have a really strong GSL myself this time round. He’s been in decent form of late anyway, I also see Jkn Air’s failures this season being to Trap’s benefit, especially without an IEM coming up anytime soon.
It’s hard to predict a lot of this for me because a lot of my senses are based on relative matchup strengths, and when it’s in groups so much can be up to who is in the winner’s match and the loser’s.
I think a lot depends on how the PvPs all shake out, abs a T or a Z playing this tournament I’m really hoping to face Parting/Hurricane/Patience/herO to advance out (or in the Ro8) over Classic/Stats/Trap/Dear.
Nobody at this level is bad, but I really wouldn’t want to face say a Classic or a Stats in a bo5 with preparation time.
|
On May 16 2019 06:47 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2019 06:22 Z3nith wrote:On May 16 2019 05:38 Moonerz wrote:On May 16 2019 05:31 NinjaNight wrote:
OP I don't think you've seen Innovation 5-1 Classic in a $300 showmatch a couple days ago. He isn't really that weak in TvP. He played like a monster against Classic. Trap said in the group selections that he thinks Inno looks pretty lost in TvP. Probably why people are saying that InnoVation lost to Patience in his ro.32 group 2-0, lost to both sOs and PartinG in the super tournament qualifiers 2-0 and 2-1 respectively and went out in the ro.16 of GSL season 1 losing to sOs and Trap 2-1 and 2-0 respectively. The last time InnoVation won a best of anything in a premier tournament against Protoss was when he 3-1'd Rail in WESG. While beating Classic 5-1 is impressive, his form vP currently stands at 58% compared 68% vZ and 71% vT which I'm sure you'll agree is significantly worse. My hope rather counter-intuitively is that Inno has been quite so relatively bad at vP for a reasonably sustained period, combined with current tournaments being borderline impossible to avoid playing vP that it’s sufficient motivation for him to grind the matchup. Outside of why exactly his vP isn’t great, he at least has a clear identifiable weakness that he realistically has needed to fix for a period. Of course it’s easier said than done. He’s also avoided having a Terran, he’s got two Protoss one Z rather than the other way round, so in a way I’d almost fancy him more than having a T in his group and all three matchups, or him succumbing to the temptation to rely on his vZ and ending up going out in a vP anyway. I quite fancy Trap to have a really strong GSL myself this time round. He’s been in decent form of late anyway, I also see Jkn Air’s failures this season being to Trap’s benefit, especially without an IEM coming up anytime soon. It’s hard to predict a lot of this for me because a lot of my senses are based on relative matchup strengths, and when it’s in groups so much can be up to who is in the winner’s match and the loser’s
I am inclined to agree with your view that Inno's probably grinded TvP to some extent due to it being the most obvious weakness in his game, however, the problem, especially with this group is not whether or not he has improved his TvP but how much he has improved it by. Stats is going to be a huge mountain to climb in that regard due to just how solid Stats is and Patience has already beaten him once this season which could have a significant psychological effect. As such it's hard to tell whether or not Inno can make it out of the group.
On Trap I also agree as he is the only Jin Air player left and therefore should be able to benefit from the collective groupthink of his teamhouse while not particularly having any difficulties theoretically when it comes to his group.
|
I think Trap is actually one of the better players. If only he wouldn't "choke" so often before the big wins.
|
Northern Ireland26442 Posts
On May 16 2019 06:58 Z3nith wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2019 06:47 Wombat_NI wrote:On May 16 2019 06:22 Z3nith wrote:On May 16 2019 05:38 Moonerz wrote:On May 16 2019 05:31 NinjaNight wrote:
OP I don't think you've seen Innovation 5-1 Classic in a $300 showmatch a couple days ago. He isn't really that weak in TvP. He played like a monster against Classic. Trap said in the group selections that he thinks Inno looks pretty lost in TvP. Probably why people are saying that InnoVation lost to Patience in his ro.32 group 2-0, lost to both sOs and PartinG in the super tournament qualifiers 2-0 and 2-1 respectively and went out in the ro.16 of GSL season 1 losing to sOs and Trap 2-1 and 2-0 respectively. The last time InnoVation won a best of anything in a premier tournament against Protoss was when he 3-1'd Rail in WESG. While beating Classic 5-1 is impressive, his form vP currently stands at 58% compared 68% vZ and 71% vT which I'm sure you'll agree is significantly worse. My hope rather counter-intuitively is that Inno has been quite so relatively bad at vP for a reasonably sustained period, combined with current tournaments being borderline impossible to avoid playing vP that it’s sufficient motivation for him to grind the matchup. Outside of why exactly his vP isn’t great, he at least has a clear identifiable weakness that he realistically has needed to fix for a period. Of course it’s easier said than done. He’s also avoided having a Terran, he’s got two Protoss one Z rather than the other way round, so in a way I’d almost fancy him more than having a T in his group and all three matchups, or him succumbing to the temptation to rely on his vZ and ending up going out in a vP anyway. I quite fancy Trap to have a really strong GSL myself this time round. He’s been in decent form of late anyway, I also see Jkn Air’s failures this season being to Trap’s benefit, especially without an IEM coming up anytime soon. It’s hard to predict a lot of this for me because a lot of my senses are based on relative matchup strengths, and when it’s in groups so much can be up to who is in the winner’s match and the loser’s I am inclined to agree with your view that Inno's probably grinded TvP to some extent due to it being the most obvious weakness in his game, however, the problem, especially with this group is not whether or not he has improved his TvP but how much he has improved it by. Stats is going to be a huge mountain to climb in that regard due to just how solid Stats is and Patience has already beaten him once this season which could have a significant psychological effect. As such it's hard to tell whether or not Inno can make it out of the group. On Trap I also agree as he is the only Jin Air player left and therefore should be able to benefit from the collective groupthink of his teamhouse while not particularly having any difficulties theoretically when it comes to his group.
Yeah I think Trap is a bit underrated anyway to begin with, or at least not talked up as much as he maybe merits, so I think he’d still do well if his teammates made it through but I can definitely see it benefitting him.
Stats is really solid but, not as solid as people make out IMO, he’s kind of an inverse Patience really. Patience doesn’t get as much credit as he deserves because he plays Protoss like, well Protoss, Stats plays the way people think legit Starcraft should be played, so he always gets that bit more benefit of the doubt.
I don’t think it’s a new trend, and tbh my biases are towards the Stats and Rains of the world because I perhaps lack the balls to live on the edge and go full Protoss.
For the record I’m not saying Stats isn’t solid, far from it but he’s not [i]as[\i] consistent as some make out. At Super Tournament I was massively impressed with how he played vs Maru and adapting on the fly and had him as my favourite for the tournament, then Gumiho 3-0ed him without having to be exceptional to do so. He does have off days.
I think a lot is in Inno’s favour in this group weirdly, if he’s going to get 2 Protosses, perhaps these are close to ideal. It really depends on how defeatist his mindset is though.
Stats plays, not exclusively but on average the more safe and reactive brand of Protoss, Patience the opposite, Patience has beaten him already so Inno at least won’t treat him lightly, and perhaps avenging that is additional motivation that another similar Protoss wouldn’t provided.
Nothing at this level is easy or absolutely ideal, but it’s not he worst hand ever. They’re so stylistically different that what Inno shows vs one may not benefit the other to watch on the day, and Dark is a great player but Inno’s rather good at vZ
Whereas I felt Stats would have won IEM Katowice if he hasn’t had to show some of his best and cool new builds versus Dark.
|
On May 16 2019 07:27 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2019 06:58 Z3nith wrote:On May 16 2019 06:47 Wombat_NI wrote:On May 16 2019 06:22 Z3nith wrote:On May 16 2019 05:38 Moonerz wrote:On May 16 2019 05:31 NinjaNight wrote:
OP I don't think you've seen Innovation 5-1 Classic in a $300 showmatch a couple days ago. He isn't really that weak in TvP. He played like a monster against Classic. Trap said in the group selections that he thinks Inno looks pretty lost in TvP. Probably why people are saying that InnoVation lost to Patience in his ro.32 group 2-0, lost to both sOs and PartinG in the super tournament qualifiers 2-0 and 2-1 respectively and went out in the ro.16 of GSL season 1 losing to sOs and Trap 2-1 and 2-0 respectively. The last time InnoVation won a best of anything in a premier tournament against Protoss was when he 3-1'd Rail in WESG. While beating Classic 5-1 is impressive, his form vP currently stands at 58% compared 68% vZ and 71% vT which I'm sure you'll agree is significantly worse. My hope rather counter-intuitively is that Inno has been quite so relatively bad at vP for a reasonably sustained period, combined with current tournaments being borderline impossible to avoid playing vP that it’s sufficient motivation for him to grind the matchup. Outside of why exactly his vP isn’t great, he at least has a clear identifiable weakness that he realistically has needed to fix for a period. Of course it’s easier said than done. He’s also avoided having a Terran, he’s got two Protoss one Z rather than the other way round, so in a way I’d almost fancy him more than having a T in his group and all three matchups, or him succumbing to the temptation to rely on his vZ and ending up going out in a vP anyway. I quite fancy Trap to have a really strong GSL myself this time round. He’s been in decent form of late anyway, I also see Jkn Air’s failures this season being to Trap’s benefit, especially without an IEM coming up anytime soon. It’s hard to predict a lot of this for me because a lot of my senses are based on relative matchup strengths, and when it’s in groups so much can be up to who is in the winner’s match and the loser’s I am inclined to agree with your view that Inno's probably grinded TvP to some extent due to it being the most obvious weakness in his game, however, the problem, especially with this group is not whether or not he has improved his TvP but how much he has improved it by. Stats is going to be a huge mountain to climb in that regard due to just how solid Stats is and Patience has already beaten him once this season which could have a significant psychological effect. As such it's hard to tell whether or not Inno can make it out of the group. On Trap I also agree as he is the only Jin Air player left and therefore should be able to benefit from the collective groupthink of his teamhouse while not particularly having any difficulties theoretically when it comes to his group. Yeah I think Trap is a bit underrated anyway to begin with, or at least not talked up as much as he maybe merits, so I think he’d still do well if his teammates made it through but I can definitely see it benefitting him. Stats is really solid but, not as solid as people make out IMO, he’s kind of an inverse Patience really. Patience doesn’t get as much credit as he deserves because he plays Protoss like, well Protoss, Stats plays the way people think legit Starcraft should be played, so he always gets that bit more benefit of the doubt. I don’t think it’s a new trend, and tbh my biases are towards the Stats and Rains of the world because I perhaps lack the balls to live on the edge and go full Protoss. For the record I’m not saying Stats isn’t solid, far from it but he’s not [i]as[\i] consistent as some make out. At Super Tournament I was massively impressed with how he played vs Maru and adapting on the fly and had him as my favourite for the tournament, then Gumiho 3-0ed him without having to be exceptional to do so. He does have off days. I think a lot is in Inno’s favour in this group weirdly, if he’s going to get 2 Protosses, perhaps these are close to ideal. It really depends on how defeatist his mindset is though. Stats plays, not exclusively but on average the more safe and reactive brand of Protoss, Patience the opposite, Patience has beaten him already so Inno at least won’t treat him lightly, and perhaps avenging that is additional motivation that another similar Protoss wouldn’t provided. Nothing at this level is easy or absolutely ideal, but it’s not he worst hand ever. They’re so stylistically different that what Inno shows vs one may not benefit the other to watch on the day, and Dark is a great player but Inno’s rather good at vZ Whereas I felt Stats would have won IEM Katowice if he hasn’t had to show some of his best and cool new builds versus Dark.
Personally I actually feel like Stats is underrated, interestingly. His playstyle lends itself so that rather than dominating his opponents, he outlasts them. He's kind of like the ultimate survivor when it comes to Starcraft, you saw it in his ro.32 group he didn't do a clean 4-0. However, people mistake this survivalist instinct as being like Rain who would most of the time would try and play into the late game because that's where he was most likelt to win. I actually feel Stats is strongest in the mid game as it stands as he is very good at making use of timing attacks in order to finish off his opponents, particularly in PvZ.
As for Patience, his problem is that he can either be absolutely incredible, dumpstering Maru and InnoVation and then can look completely lost in other games. It's such an odd phenomena.
I think for Inno it comes down to whether or not he can win the first game. If he wins it I think he goes out in first, if he loses I think he'll lose badly.
|
Northern Ireland26442 Posts
On May 16 2019 07:54 Z3nith wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2019 07:27 Wombat_NI wrote:On May 16 2019 06:58 Z3nith wrote:On May 16 2019 06:47 Wombat_NI wrote:On May 16 2019 06:22 Z3nith wrote:On May 16 2019 05:38 Moonerz wrote:On May 16 2019 05:31 NinjaNight wrote:
OP I don't think you've seen Innovation 5-1 Classic in a $300 showmatch a couple days ago. He isn't really that weak in TvP. He played like a monster against Classic. Trap said in the group selections that he thinks Inno looks pretty lost in TvP. Probably why people are saying that InnoVation lost to Patience in his ro.32 group 2-0, lost to both sOs and PartinG in the super tournament qualifiers 2-0 and 2-1 respectively and went out in the ro.16 of GSL season 1 losing to sOs and Trap 2-1 and 2-0 respectively. The last time InnoVation won a best of anything in a premier tournament against Protoss was when he 3-1'd Rail in WESG. While beating Classic 5-1 is impressive, his form vP currently stands at 58% compared 68% vZ and 71% vT which I'm sure you'll agree is significantly worse. My hope rather counter-intuitively is that Inno has been quite so relatively bad at vP for a reasonably sustained period, combined with current tournaments being borderline impossible to avoid playing vP that it’s sufficient motivation for him to grind the matchup. Outside of why exactly his vP isn’t great, he at least has a clear identifiable weakness that he realistically has needed to fix for a period. Of course it’s easier said than done. He’s also avoided having a Terran, he’s got two Protoss one Z rather than the other way round, so in a way I’d almost fancy him more than having a T in his group and all three matchups, or him succumbing to the temptation to rely on his vZ and ending up going out in a vP anyway. I quite fancy Trap to have a really strong GSL myself this time round. He’s been in decent form of late anyway, I also see Jkn Air’s failures this season being to Trap’s benefit, especially without an IEM coming up anytime soon. It’s hard to predict a lot of this for me because a lot of my senses are based on relative matchup strengths, and when it’s in groups so much can be up to who is in the winner’s match and the loser’s I am inclined to agree with your view that Inno's probably grinded TvP to some extent due to it being the most obvious weakness in his game, however, the problem, especially with this group is not whether or not he has improved his TvP but how much he has improved it by. Stats is going to be a huge mountain to climb in that regard due to just how solid Stats is and Patience has already beaten him once this season which could have a significant psychological effect. As such it's hard to tell whether or not Inno can make it out of the group. On Trap I also agree as he is the only Jin Air player left and therefore should be able to benefit from the collective groupthink of his teamhouse while not particularly having any difficulties theoretically when it comes to his group. Yeah I think Trap is a bit underrated anyway to begin with, or at least not talked up as much as he maybe merits, so I think he’d still do well if his teammates made it through but I can definitely see it benefitting him. Stats is really solid but, not as solid as people make out IMO, he’s kind of an inverse Patience really. Patience doesn’t get as much credit as he deserves because he plays Protoss like, well Protoss, Stats plays the way people think legit Starcraft should be played, so he always gets that bit more benefit of the doubt. I don’t think it’s a new trend, and tbh my biases are towards the Stats and Rains of the world because I perhaps lack the balls to live on the edge and go full Protoss. For the record I’m not saying Stats isn’t solid, far from it but he’s not [i]as[\i] consistent as some make out. At Super Tournament I was massively impressed with how he played vs Maru and adapting on the fly and had him as my favourite for the tournament, then Gumiho 3-0ed him without having to be exceptional to do so. He does have off days. I think a lot is in Inno’s favour in this group weirdly, if he’s going to get 2 Protosses, perhaps these are close to ideal. It really depends on how defeatist his mindset is though. Stats plays, not exclusively but on average the more safe and reactive brand of Protoss, Patience the opposite, Patience has beaten him already so Inno at least won’t treat him lightly, and perhaps avenging that is additional motivation that another similar Protoss wouldn’t provided. Nothing at this level is easy or absolutely ideal, but it’s not he worst hand ever. They’re so stylistically different that what Inno shows vs one may not benefit the other to watch on the day, and Dark is a great player but Inno’s rather good at vZ Whereas I felt Stats would have won IEM Katowice if he hasn’t had to show some of his best and cool new builds versus Dark. Personally I actually feel like Stats is underrated, interestingly. His playstyle lends itself so that rather than dominating his opponents, he outlasts them. He's kind of like the ultimate survivor when it comes to Starcraft, you saw it in his ro.32 group he didn't do a clean 4-0. However, people mistake this survivalist instinct as being like Rain who would most of the time would try and play into the late game because that's where he was most likelt to win. I actually feel Stats is strongest in the mid game as it stands as he is very good at making use of timing attacks in order to finish off his opponents, particularly in PvZ. As for Patience, his problem is that he can either be absolutely incredible, dumpstering Maru and InnoVation and then can look completely lost in other games. It's such an odd phenomena. I think for Inno it comes down to whether or not he can win the first game. If he wins it I think he goes out in first, if he loses I think he'll lose badly.
I somewhat agree, I too kind of think Inno will either crush it or himself be crushed.
I think they play borderline identically in many ways, just Legacy’s mid-game is what pre-legacy’s lategame used to be. Early Rain was crushing it in PvZ by really mastering being stable into hitting a brutal pre-Broodlord timing, which is basically how Stats plays, only some of the parts have changed, but style wise the basic plan feels very similar.
I guess it’s splitting hairs it gets confusing as what people consider early/mid/late game are different, and some use the ‘super late game’ term.
For me playing for the lategame was how Liquid HerO played PvZ with warp prisms way back in the day, or how Ty and Maru especially approach TvZ
My distinction is basically that I consider building to a timing as a midgame strat, or something you’ve prepped.
Playing for the lategame to me = playing to a period where you grind your opponent down when the game starts being a bit more improvisational, especially in Legacy where you get more stuff more quickly.
Perhaps what I consider lategame is what others consider the super late game haha, I’d be interested to see how others categorise these things tbh
|
Don't sleep on the build master Gumiho.
|
Based on form, past peaks, and current groups the winner will be one of:
1.  Classic: He has the motivation, there's going to be a lot of PvP which only Stats can probably beat him in, and he has a super easy ro16 group
2. Stats: He's just always a safe bet in LotV
3.  Dark: He's hungry for a title and very consistent.
4.  GuMiho: He's looking very sharp lately and will probably stomp the Protoss players in his group
5. soO: The favorite of his ro16 group and all-around consistent.
|
Trap has been top protoss on the ladder recently and he seems to have fixed his pvp. He just needs to get rid of his tendency to joke. Don't sleep on him for a win.
|
people are sleeping on Trap. hes my #2 after Classic
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
