IEM Katowice 2019:
Round of 24 Preview

by Mizenhauer and Wax

Sixty-four players braved the double elimination brackets in Katowice, but only twelve have survived to fight another day. Now, they face twelve fresh and well-rested players in the main event of IEM Katowice: the 24-player group stage. IEM's 6-player round robin format is one of the most rigorous tests of skill in all of WCS, with only the strongest of the strong making it through to the playoffs. Let's preview how things could play out in 2019.

Group A: Redemption Row
Patience, SpeCial, Zest, Stats, Creator, herO

• Round robin (best of 3)
• 1st place receives seed into playoff quarterfinals
• 2nd and 3rd place advance to playoff round of 12
• Start time: Thursday, Feb 28 10:45am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Form is fickle and past success is no guarantee of future glory. The Protoss players of Group A know this better than most, as all five have experienced the pain of crashing down to earth after the heavens seemed within their grasp. For Patience and Creator, those glorious moments are so far in the past that they're the StarCraft equivalent of ancient history. But those moments did occur.

Neither of Creator nor Patience comes to mind when one envisions a modern-day champion, but the pair have managed to hang around the scene despite being less than their ideal selves. IEM Katowice is an unparalleled opportunity for the pair—what with Patience staring down the barrel of a Maru shaped gun in GSL, and Creator seemingly incapable of making any progress in a Korean league. We wax poetic about what a single moment of glory can do for a player and how it can define a career—and thus, here we find a pair of players clinging to the fragile sliver of hope that we call a miracle.

If we don’t think of Patience and Creator when someone says “champion”, who does come to mind? Champions are the type of players who define metas and stand at the top of their race. herO, Zest and Stats fit the bill.

All three are struggling as of late, however, with herO being the only one of the trio to have escaped the Round of 32 in GSL. It’s an interesting reversal of fortune given how Zest and Stats were two of Korea’s best in 2017 and herO’s failing form had reduced him to bit-time-player and butt of many jokes. He's an interesting case on exactly how much it takes for the community to write off a formerly top tier player. He hasn’t been mentioned in the same breath as Zest and Stats for quite some time, but now he finds himself on equal footing, while actually earning greater purchase in a league in which he’s the only of the three not to win.

Patience, herO, Zest, Stats and Creator are all looking for the same thing. What form their redemption takes is known only to them, but all are seeking legitimacy after a fall from grace. Form is fickle, and a spark can be ignited in an instant. Past success is no guarantee of future glory, but the past holds so little bearing on weekends like these.

[In the midst of all this is SpeCial, the token foreigner in this peculiar K-drama. His performance versus Classic at BlizzCon 2018 proved that he can be a true scene-stealer, but his loss to Stats in the same tournament showed us that he can also be relegated to being a wordless extra.]

Group B: Fighting for Third
Neeb, Dark, Maru, Leenock, Trap, Lambo

• Round Robin
• 1st place receives seed into playoff quarterfinals
• 2nd and 3rd place advance to playoff round of 12
• Start time: Thursday, Feb 28 4:15pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

Group B is quite likely the most polarizing of the bunch. Maru and Dark are massive favorites to advance. In fact they are so far ahead of their group mates that most would be shocked if their record was blemished by anyone but the other. While it’s demoralizing for the other four players to think that they're starting down 0-2, at least that puts them on even footing in the chase for the third and final ticket to the RO12.

Neeb and Trap figure to lead the pack for the final slot. The former 2016 KeSPA Cup finals opponents have gone in wildly different directions since they met three summers ago. Neeb went on to dominate the WCS Circuit for a year, and actually managed to venture deeper into Code S than Trap ever has by making the semifinals in Season 3 last year.

Neeb's semifinal collapse against TY was a neat summation of his inconsistency—he was brilliant up until TY forced an incredible draw game, after which the American's mental fortitude seemed to crumble. But Neeb still outshone Trap, whose "top nine" reputation started at IEM Katowice a year ago.

Like Neeb, Trap stumbled at a critical moment. He shocked a great number of people by dispatching one of the tournament favorites in Dark, only to be upset himself at the next hurdle. A pre-ascendant Serral ran circles around the supposedly superior Trap, handing him a painful reverse-sweep defeat. That loss has aged well with time and perspective, but hindsight won't make up for the $5,000 Trap lost to Serral that series.

Lagging behind Trap and Neeb are a pair of Zergs who some might contend are lucky to be here. Lambo made a name for himself last year, with his BlizzCon appearance validating his decision to become a professional full time. But "8th place from the WCS Circuit" isn't an accolade that inspires much fear—at least not when 75% of the remaining competitors are Korean.

Leenock hasn’t been a top tier player for quite some time, but his round of 8 appearance in GSL Season 3 last year was a wonderful trip down memory lane. Unfortunately, his emergency surgery right before his match meant he was unable to properly prepare and make good on the rare opportunity. Alas, his 0-4 effort in the latest GSL two weeks ago did little to convince us that even a fully-prepared Leenock could have advanced. Still, in a group like this, where four people are supposed to start 0-2, it will only take a concentrated burst of brilliance to separate oneself from the pack.

Group C: Five Champions
Serral, INnoVation, Rogue, Solar, RagnaroK, GuMiho

• Round Robin
• 1st place receives seed into playoff quarterfinals
• 2nd and 3rd place advance to playoff round of 12
• Start time: Friday, Mar 01 10:45am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Of all four groups, none includes such a diverse set of champions as Group C. First among them is Serral, the reigning WCS Global Champion and de facto best player in the world. Winning the WCS Global Finals secured him a permanent place in StarCraft history, but it also painted a target mark on his back. Foreigners will be chasing him while Koreans thirst for revenge. Serral’s early showings in WCS Winter went as expected given the lackluster competition, but fans and detractors alike have been eagerly awaiting this weekend to see him flex his muscle against the cream of the crop.

Another champion, one who was the best player in the world for half a year or so is Rogue, the man whose throne Serral usurped. Rogue is a peculiar breed of winner, having experienced great success in a handful of 'weekender' style tournaments while agonizingly falling short in the Code S quarterfinals time and again. He’s the antithesis of someone like INnoVation, who—despite looking like he's dragging himself along on crutches at times—has won in practically every type of tournament known to man. A GSL and SSL champion, he’s proven his mettle overseas as well. Were Rogue to retain his crown as IEM Katowice champion it would only further his mystique as a big game hunter. Meanwhile, a victory this weekend would be a real feather in INnoVation’s cap, bringing him a step closer to a full trophy collection in StarCraft II.

While Serral and Rogue find themselves at the top of scene right now, and INnoVation has been too good for too long to ever discount, Solar and GuMiho have a more difficult time making the case that they belong in the same conversation. Both have posted solid results over the years, with GuMiho’s GSL and Solar’s SSL titles being their crown jewels, but neither has been considered a legitimate challenger in some time. Lacking the overwhelming physical mechanics of the top-tier contenders, they have learned to get by on guile and eccentricity. They enter the group of death on the outside looking in, but one would be foolish to completely write off players of their pedigree.

[Poor RagnaroK rounds out this group of champions. You may have seen some jokes and memes about SpeCial's Group A predicament, but it's RagnaroK who looks most out of place in his group. Surrounded by BlizzCon champions, IEM champions, SSL champions, and GSL champions, RagnaroK enters with "First place, Hong Kong Esports Tournament" on his resume. There's not much more to say about RagnaroK here, except another cliched line about how anything can happen in StarCraft II.]

Group D: Bunny, TY, uThermal, Scarlett, soO, Dear

• Round Robin
• 1st place receives seed into playoff quarterfinals
• 2nd and 3rd place advance to playoff round of 12
• Start time: Friday, Mar 01 4:45pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

For all our incessant chatter about championships, it's unfortunate how quickly we can turn those career defining achievements into trivia. When we mention Dear, we almost always comment on his remarkable double titles in Code S and WCS Season 3 in 2013. Yet, we have to wonder when Dear lifts those trophies, if they feel lighter and lighter with every passing year (depending on how he invested the prize money, he may feel differently about his bank account).

Some other Group D players may feel similarly. uThermal won IEM Shanghai in 2016, while
Scarlett finally won a premiere title at IEM PyeongChang 2018. That last triumph, in particular, seemed like it would ring eternal. A victory on Korean soil, against legendary champion sOs—surely one of the apex moments in foreign SC2 history. How quickly it was forgotten in the wake of Serral’s magnificence. Even Scarlett's quarterfinal run in GSL Code S seems to get mentioned more often nowadays.

Bunny would probably give an arm and a leg to get anywhere near a major title. Bunny’s first Korean league appearance came way back in 2013, but it wasn't until 2016 that he actually made Code S. Since then he’s reached the Round of 16 on four occasions, though he’s never claimed a single victory on that stage, instead falling out 0-2 each time. His career is far closer to the median, a long and arduous one with little personal glory. What playoff advancement here would mean to someone in his position we could only fathom.

If only every player could have it like TY, where championships aren't some mythic elixir of validation but more a quiet (and financially lucrative) confirmation of what we already know: "yeah, he's really f***ing good at StarCraft." The former IEM and WESG champion didn't win any titles in 2018, but it hasn't stopped him from being held in the highest regard by his peers and fans alike.

Which brings us to soO. We can muse all we like about how artificial this championship mythology is, but it's clear that soO has been affected by his public perception. One gets the impression that there is a pain that can't be lifted by any amount of respect, prize-money, or winning in non-finals matches. Winning IEM Katowice would be a championship entirely unlike the KeSPA Cup. It would be a victory that permanently alters the narrative surrounding his career, and perhaps offer some relief after years of strife.

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