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WCS Global Finals: Quarterfinals Preview

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WCS Global Finals: Quarterfinals Preview

Text byOlli
Graphics byshiroiusagi
November 1st, 2017 15:58 GMT

WCS Global Finals: Quarterfinals Preview



by mizenhauer
[image loading] - Mizenhauer




The Great Foreign Hope

It may not have been the stated purpose, but the restructured WCS Format introduced by Blizzard following BlizzCon 2015 seemed to have a clear underlying objective: strengthen the foreign scene. Koreans were banished from weekender tournaments with foreigners like (P)ShoWTimE, (Z)Nerchio and even an adopted son in (Z)TRUE taking full advantage. After more than a half decade of beatings, (P)Neeb returned the favor on Korean soil, lifting the KeSPA Cup. The system was working, the foreign scene had exploded with new life. It was more competitive than ever and appeared to be fostering a new generation of players, something that was not happening in Korea. And, it was from that crop of youngsters that a certain Polish Zerg had the temerity to make it all the way to the semifinals at the 2016 WCS Global Finals.

To say that (Z)Elazer wasn’t a known entity at that point would be irresponsible, but he found himself thrust into the spotlight after doing something no foreigner had done since Sen made the final four of BlizzCon back in what might as well be the triassic period in Esports reckoning (known to most as 2012). His match against (Z)Dark served as grim reminder just how far he had to go, but it was his first big finish, an indicator of things to come. He stumbled at Austin, but won in Valencia and reached the semifinals at the other two WCS stops. As BlizzCon neared it would have been foolish to dub 2017 anything other than a breakout year. Elazer had arrived, underestimate the fresh faced 19 year old at your own peril.

If Elazer is flash, pizzazz and glamour, his opponent, the only other remaining foreigner in the field, is everything but that. Where Elazer represents newness and promise, (T)SpeCial has been at the whole StarCraft 2 thing as long as anyone. He’s done ardent work, toiling away in Copa Americas and other regional tournaments since time untold. But that’s not to say he’s not a pioneer. Back in 2013, he became the first foreigner to join a proper KeSPA team. Was it the act of a desperate coaching staff or did (Z)Cezanne see something we’re only just getting a glimpse of? SpeCial may be the story of the tournament thus far, but we’ve seen this before. A sensational win and then what? Historically, an equally astonishing collapse.

At WCS Valencia, he gave Neeb his only loss in the WCS Circuit all year. Less than three hours later he was bounced from the tournament by (Z)Snute in a clean 3-0 sweep. SpeCial played (P)Stats close at GSL vs The World, but he didn’t even make it out of the group stages in Montreal. The fall from grace seemed well underway. All that changed last weekend, though, and one would have a hard time arguing SpeCial wasn’t one of, if not the most impressive player present. The opener against Stats may have been close, but his demolition of TY was anything but.

Among foreigners, 2017 was the year of Neeb, but it won’t be him left standing. In the end, it will be Elazer or SpeCial who will carry the foreigner flag into the the semifinals. For Elazer, a chance to erase the grisly fate he suffered a year earlier, for SpeCial an opportunity at validation for seven years devoted to the game. Only one can remain. So who’s the foreign hope?


Dreamchasers

They’ve never made it this far before.

After a mercurial 2017 that saw (T)GuMiho claim his long awaited championship, he was breaking new ground just by making it to the WCS Global Finals. GuMiho had stripped everything down to the foundation, even addressing things like the mouse settings the average person adjusts once and forever forgets about. The old way of doing things wasn’t going to cut it and GuMiho was tired of mediocrity. Bluster backed up with ferocity, GuMiho was like the finale at the end of a fireworks show. When he was in form, you knew it and it was hard to mistake what he was offering as anything other than greatness.

(Z)soO made it to BlizzCon once before. Back in 2014 he was the undisputed best Zerg in Korea. He had dominated the region from start to finish and, had he won a few of those finals, it might be him INnoVation would be measuring himself against, not (T)Mvp. He stormed his way to BlizzCon, confident as can be, but found his dreams dashed against the inexorable barrier that was (T)TaeJa. soO’s 2014 had been one of disappointment and anguish. This was an opportunity to ease away some of that pain, but bravado and disrespect meant he squandered it.

Just as 2017 marked a new era for GuMiho, it was for soO as well. He too recreated himself through equal parts mental resilience and renewed hard work. He made it to two GSL finals and, while his second loss effectively clinched a berth at BlizzCon before the calendar had even turned to July, it came at the hands of his man he will face off against in a few days time.

All of soO’s finals are cases of what could have been, but it was GuMiho who seized the reins and made possibility reality. GuMiho was already on a four match wins streak before they met in that summer night. He stretched the run to eight before soO got his first win in over sixth months against the PSISTORM Terran in September in the midst of soO’s ZvT resurgence. The matchup had long been his achilles heel, but committing to playing his own style instead of trying to replicate that of others appeared to be paying dividends.

Every player in the tournament is living their dream. They are professionals playing the game they love on the highest stage. Money, prestige and the title of world champion, something that can never be taken away, is on the line. But for these two, perhaps more than any other, the dream is a gilded one.

For soO it’s obvious… A career can be decided in a single moment. BlizzCon is my time to redeem my past mistakes.

Those are his own words and it's patently clear how much this tournament means to him. For GuMiho, it’s a frontier he probably never expect he’d see, let alone conquer, during the lean years between his semifinal defeat against (Z)DongRaeGu and his GSL victory. But they’ve both made it this far, farther than they’ve ever been. They’re running full tilt into the wind, chasing their dreams. Only one can take the next step, though. Because for every dream that is realized, far more end in regret and despair.


Fish or Kraken?

Canada Bill Jones once said that it’s immoral to let a sucker keep his money. In gambling, the general rule is if you’re getting the better of someone there’s no reason to stop. If you wipe out their bankroll, it would be wrong to not give the fool a chance to deepen their grave as they vainly try to win their money back.

To say that it’s been the summer of (Z)Rogue would not be too big of a stretch. There are those who would tell you he should have won GSL Season 2, but the truth is he fell three long matches short of affirming the reputation he had gained on ladder. But it was just the first step on a total reinvention that saw Rogue evolve from a crafty player with deft mastery of compositions and the timings associated with them to a sturdy macro player, adept in every stage of the game. Every king needs his coronation and Rogue got his at the expense of (P)herO in Shanghai. Rogue truly owned the tournament in every way and he effortlessly trampled over the man who had won the Super Tournament only a few months prior. herO looked out of his element and woefully outmatched. The invisible man needed not win to be overshadowed this time, he was able to achieve that fate in defeat.

But having taken $6,000 dollars from herO, Rogue was not so insensitive at to not give him another shot. Rogue and herO next encountered each other in the finals of the second Super Tournaments, having survived semifinals bouts with (T)INnoVation and Dark respectively. It was the perfect final for a tournament in which the cream truly had risen to the top. The final game was the perfect encapsulation of Rogue’s 2017. Once a tier two player who would hesitate and falter at critical moments, Rogue scouted herO’s skytoss and pounced like an apex predator. He had always shied away from the moment in the past, but that was the story no longer. Another $6,000 dollars snatced out of herO’s hands and for Rogue, a spot at BlizzCon.

Sixteen players took part in the opening weekend but it was herO, more than any other, who played the role of brooding horror patrolling the deeps. His play against Elazer and Dark was positively lethal and should give even Rogue room for pause. He could easily be considered the most dangerous player in the field, a mantle which many might have bestowed upon Rogue before his slip up against Neeb.

And so Rogue and herO find themselves opposite one another for the third time in half a year with an even larger prize pool at stake. herO is looking to win his money back and then some while getting revenge on someone whose most notable victories have come at his expense. Rogue, on the other hand, will attempt to disprove the maxim that third time’s the charm. He’s beaten herO twice, with each triumph proving an instrumental waypoint towards reaching this stage. On November 3rd Rogue will do his best to channel Canada Bill because through his eyes, herO is a sucker. It would be immoral to let him keep his money.


When Only One Steed Remains

In the nascent days of 2017, four Terrans stood head and shoulders above their peers. (T)ByuN was the world champion, INnoVation was fresh off a victory at IEM Gyeonggi while (T)Maru and (T)TY had only recently played a Best of 7 for $300,000. Dubbed the Four Horsemen, they looked every bit the favorites to win any tournament they entered. That’s what we were sold anyway. None of the three managed to make it past the round of 8 in GSL Season 1 though. It was (T)Ryung that outpaced his compatriots while players like (T)aLive and GuMiho stole the spotlight at the first Super Tournament and GSL Season 2 respectively. ByuN had all but disappeared and Maru was quickly fading into the distance.

By the time summer came, those who enjoyed their temporary moment in the sun seemed to have burnt out. Both TY and INnoVation fell to herO at IEM Shanghai, but INnoVation had won SSL Premier Season 1, looking every bit the conquering hero in the process. They made their domestic returns at GSL vs The World where INnoVation dominated ByuN and TY in the finals to lift his third premier event title of the year. It was a resounding proclamation by INnoVation, one as clear as day: my supposed brethren are anything but my equals. Evidence mounted as INnoVation endured sOs’ special brand of chaos to win another GSL. As impressive as TY had been throughout the year, it was clear he didn’t belong in the same class as the three time Code S champion. Heading into BlizzCon the question of everyone’s lips was if INnoVation was the GOAT. If he wasn’t already, becoming the WCS world champion would certainly see him over the threshold.

It’s fitting then that the other remaining representative of the dreaded quartet should bar his path to glory. TY’s road to the quarterfinals is so utterly John Sun that the Korean community must have a hard time wiping the grin off their faces. It is in many ways the perfect lead up to this showdown. They’ve split their pair of offline matches in 2017, but the dominance INnoVation displayed in August makes it difficult to imagine a world where the outcome doesn’t parrot the GSL vs The World finals. TY has it within him to surprise everyone though. He dug deep and played spoiler at WeSG and IEM. Would it really be a shock if he pulled off the same trick here as well?.

Once upon a time there were four. Nearly a year later and there are just two. Only one steed remains. Who will claim it and ride off into the sunset?


Predictions:

(Z)Elazer 3 > 2 (T)SpeCial
(T)GuMiho 1 < 3 (Z)soO
(Z)Rogue 3 > 2 (P)herO
(T)INnoVation 2 < 3 (T)TY








Writer: mizenhauer
Editors: CosmicSpiral, Olli
Photo Credit: Blizzard
Graphics: shiroiusagi
Facebook Twitter Reddit
Administrator"Declaring anything a disaster because aLive popped up out of nowhere is just downright silly."
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13967 Posts
November 01 2017 16:03 GMT
#2
Nearly identical predictions AND a DRG shoutout.

Good shit buddy <3
Kaina + Drones Linkcro Summon Cupsie Yummy Way
Musicus
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany23576 Posts
November 01 2017 16:10 GMT
#3
Nice, thanks Mizen!

I think Inno will win, but other than that I agree.

Elazer reaching the blizzcon semi finals back to back would be pretty epic. I hope he does it!
Maru and Serral are probably top 5.
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
55458 Posts
November 01 2017 16:17 GMT
#4
Consecutive Blizzcon Ro4 player Elazer coming in hot with 2 wins against Koreans across those tournaments.
Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
Durnuu
Profile Joined September 2013
13319 Posts
November 01 2017 16:19 GMT
#5
A preview with predictions ? What is this, LRTL ?
BUNNYYYYYYYYY https://i.imgur.com/BiCF577.png
Twinkle Toes
Profile Joined May 2012
United States3605 Posts
November 01 2017 16:22 GMT
#6
INno got this!
Bisu - INnoVation - Dark - Rogue - Stats
D-light
Profile Joined April 2012
Finland7364 Posts
November 01 2017 16:26 GMT
#7
On November 02 2017 01:10 Musicus wrote:
Nice, thanks Mizen!

I think Inno will win, but other than that I agree.

Elazer reaching the blizzcon semi finals back to back would be pretty epic. I hope he does it!

Yup. Two semis going 2-6 against Koreans would be pretty epic.
why even
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
November 01 2017 16:35 GMT
#8
Inno 2-0 Gumiho and TY 0-2 Special in group stage. I would tend to think Gumiho > Special as well.

Not saying TY is doomed, but he is definitely not the favorite.

Agreed on the rest.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
November 01 2017 16:39 GMT
#9
On November 02 2017 01:17 Elentos wrote:
Consecutive Blizzcon Ro4 player Elazer coming in hot with 2 wins against Koreans across those tournaments.

Both wins were 2-1 ZvZs.

I mean, a win is a win. But 2-1 in a ZvZ.......
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16955 Posts
November 01 2017 16:42 GMT
#10
Nice preview. Canada Bill Jones is known for losing a lot of money gambling as well as winning some, so it's time for herO to swindle back. The sun over the machine is a pretty bold prediction especially after having seen them play.
Sharkken
Profile Joined October 2012
Jordan141 Posts
November 01 2017 16:47 GMT
#11
My heart is with soO but i think herO will win it
Liquid HerO Best Toss in the World
Vutalisk
Profile Joined August 2016
United States680 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-01 17:12:10
November 01 2017 17:05 GMT
#12
On November 02 2017 01:47 Sharkken wrote:
My heart is with soO but i think herO will win it

Huh? They don't play vs each other in quarterfinal. You mean potential final?
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
55458 Posts
November 01 2017 17:12 GMT
#13
On November 02 2017 01:35 pvsnp wrote:
Inno 2-0 Gumiho and TY 0-2 Special in group stage. I would tend to think Gumiho > Special as well.

TY has a week to come up with answers and Starcraft isn't as simple as Inno > GuMi > Special > TY, therefore Inno > TY.

Also those 2 series were wildly different.
Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
Deleted User 3420
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
24492 Posts
November 01 2017 17:15 GMT
#14
What an odd TY > innovation prediction. Out of all the matches I think that one is the most one sided (though there is room for an upset there, too, of course).

If special plays like he did in the ro16 elazer has no chance. But special did not play tvz there, and elazer's tvz looked strong in his matches.

Soo is Soo. Gumiho plays tvz weird. It's hard to predict. If soo is familar with gumi's style, which I expect he will have some amount of familiarity with it, then I have to predict a soo victory.

I think Hero vs Rogue is the hardest to predict. Coming in I would have said Rogue all day (he was my favorite to win the tournament). But he faltered vs neeb, whereas hero looks incredible.

Elazer 3-2 Special
Soo 3-1 Gumiho
Hero 3-2 Rogue
Innovation 3-1 TY
Duckman
Profile Joined August 2009
United States158 Posts
November 01 2017 17:20 GMT
#15
Great write-up! I'm rooting for Special so we avoid ZvZ in semis :x
soO to win it all! Ultimate redemption story!
hexhaven
Profile Joined July 2014
Finland926 Posts
November 01 2017 17:20 GMT
#16
Dark was taken out, the tournament is no longer worth watching. Life no longer worth living.
WriterI shoot events. | http://www.jussi.co/esports
Olli
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
Austria24417 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-01 17:21:17
November 01 2017 17:20 GMT
#17
I've got:

(Z)Elazer > (T)SpeCial
(Z)soO > (T)GuMiho
(P)herO/(Z)Rogue is 50:50
(T)INnoVation > (T)TY, but not by much

And I've got the winner of herO/Rogue winning the tournament.
Administrator"Declaring anything a disaster because aLive popped up out of nowhere is just downright silly."
CBAS2TheHumanLife
Profile Joined July 2017
Korea (South)29 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-01 17:27:09
November 01 2017 17:26 GMT
#18
even a player showed bad performance in 1st day, he still can win the tournament. It really depends on player's condition and build order luck at the day.
And this is the game that victory can go to anyone especially in pro level.

TY still can beat INno in bo5 if he finds his shape, and you can never predict by looking at few results in top level.

I think winner of lower bracket will win this blizzcon
Mun_Su
Profile Joined December 2012
France2063 Posts
November 01 2017 17:37 GMT
#19
On October 31 2017 20:44 Mun_Su wrote:
a) (T)MajOr 3-1 (Z)Elazer
b) (Z)soO 3-2 (T)GuMiho
c) (P)herO 2-3 (Z)Rogue
d) (T)Bogus 3-1 (T)TY

a) Very close games, both were happy to fight each other. Special really really impressed me, even if Stats was the shadow of himself these days. Now we'll have to see if he can play TvZ at the same level he played TvP and TvT. Elazer didn't impressed me that much because he only won ZvZ (even if it was quite an accomplishment to end Dark' streak against foreigner. I do not know enough about him, is his ZvT stronger than his ZvZ?

b) soO said that he had practicing really hard his ZvT. So if soO really took time to fix his ZvT he can beat Gumiho, who didn't impress me. But I'm not confident and Gumi can always pull something strong so 3-2 soO. And tbh I really don't want to see Gumiho in the final of the blizzcon when he got 2d in his group while 3 stronger players are fighting in the other bracket :/

c) Maybe the closest serie. Both are in insane form. My head will say slight advantage to herO, he seems to have peaked at the best time possible in the year, his execution is flawless, it will be hard to beat him. Rogue is the hotest zerg atm, some say he is overrated but still he won GSL ST2 in a very convicing fashion, he is still at peak. So I'll go for him, cause Protoss Morghulis.

d) TY lost 0-2 a TvT against Special, who trained with INnoVation. This fact alone may give an edge to Bogus. That's not all. INno has lost a lot in the first third of 2017 because of a shitty TvT. IEM World and GST ST1 were lost to aLive. He said he fixed his TvT and man he was true he we take Offline results in games. From the start of 2017 to may he is 50% winrate in offline games. Since June he is at 92.86%, 13-1, aganst the like of Gumiho Byun Maru aLive and... TY. So I'll definitly favor INnoVation here. He seemed good against aLive sunday.


This.

Ofc we can never be sure...
INno <3 - TY - Maru - Taeja - Rain <3 - Classic <3 - Stephano <3 - soO <3 - Soulkey - Dark - SERRAL =O / END REGION LOCK
DieuCure
Profile Joined January 2017
France3713 Posts
November 01 2017 17:42 GMT
#20
TY will win 3-0 ez dont fool yourself
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