B is for Bubble

by munch

2015 has seen Dream rise to the head of the terran pack. The ex-MVP rookie has been a revelation, earning plaudits for his dual Starleague campaigns, as well as his consistent performances in Proleague and occasionally otherworldly TvZ. But while he’s gained his fair share of fans overseas; respect from his compatriots seems to be a little harder to come by. The SSL group nominations in Season 2 were especially notable for one thing—every player taking turns to have a go at bashing Dream. One word kept coming up—bubble—which in Korean terminology refers to a player whose success so far has been more luck than skill; someone whose stay at the top is doomed to be rather short lived. While Dream may have had the last laugh that season, showing his longevity with a second successive finals appearance, the doubts are still yet to be fully dispelled, with his continued failure in GSL only adding fuel to the fire. What’s more, second place is beginning to define him—his two starleague silvers join his IEM and Leifeng Cup runners up prizes on the mantelpiece—and soO’s achievements still cast a hefty shadow over the SKT squad.


Dream: "I didn't realize kong was infectious."

Symbolically then, it’s fitting that as a player who’s been taking flak from all sides, Dream’s found himself alone in a group with three protosses desperate to take him out. As the trailers have noted, it's time for Man vs Protoss. Let’s take a look at the challengers.

1. Rain

Rain comes swaggering into this group as undoubtedly the number one threat. His ego may have taken a hefty hit after being dumped out of IEM Shenzhen by Snute and Classic, but one bad day at the office is hardly enough evidence to write off the incumbent GSL champion. Rain’s PvT is rapidly approaching near unbeatable status, and his victories over Bbyong, Maru and INnoVation paved his path to glory last season. It’s been over four months since FanTaSy dealt him his last offline series loss in the matchup, and in the meantime, he’s compiled a ridiculous 26-3 record. His standard style of passive control over a game is reaching similar levels to the peak Rain of old, while he’s been adding in a degree of early aggression to his game for quite a while now—especially proxy stargates on the larger maps (see game 4 of the Maru series, for example)—making him more of a multifaceted threat.

PvP is a bigger concern for the mYi protoss. He’s been beaten in every series he’s played against quality opposition in the mirror matchup recently—losses to Classic, PartinG and sOs—not to mention his capitulation against Lilbow at HomeStory Cup. He’s up against two dangerous PvPers in this group, and he knows that he has to beat at least one of them to progress to the playoffs.

2. Dear

Speaking of bubbles, Dear is arguably the biggest bubble of the lot. No player in Starcraft has burned as bright and crashed as hard as him. Since the transfer to Mousesports which seemed to catalyse his demise, there hasn’t really been a single run of results where he’s hinted at a true return to that level of form. There have been minor victories this year—reaching the quarterfinals in Season 1 of the SSL, as well as qualifying for the recent KeSPA Cup—but they’ve been few and far between. Dear’s PvT results this year are emblematic of his new place in the Starcraft scene, showing a player who’s good enough to smash the small fry, but who struggles against those with more pedigree. Given Dream’s stellar TvP, it’s unlikely that Dear will prove too much of a threat. However, it’s worth bearing in mind that Dear stands in exalted company in being one of the few protosses to take a series off Maru this year (albeit in Proleague). It’s never wise to underestimate a GSL champion. On the mirror matchup front, Dear is somewhat erratic, and his preferences for strong timing-based plays is essentially unchanged from his peak. He has seemed weak at times in the late game though, and Rain in particular should be looking to drag out their games.

3. MyuNgSiK

MyuNgSiK is one of the most confusing players in the Starcraft 2 scene. For a player who reached the playoff stages of GSL last season, his control is worryingly lacklustre, and his botched execution in the quarterfinals against sOs certainly shows the one thing holding him back. At times, he’s able to surprise everyone with innovative play and the dirtiest of cheeses; at others, he makes you forget that he’d ever left PRIME. That said though, he remains a definite threat for anyone who dares to underestimate him, especially in PvT, as Cure found out to his cost in last Friday’s GSL group. It's also worth bearing in mind that game in Proleague against Maru—he may have lost the match, but with a few tweaks his phoenix proclivities could truly shine. Unfortunately for him, though, his weak PvP will likely end up hurting him in this group; he’s currently on a 10-18 record so far this year, and aside from his rather fortuitous victory over PartinG in last season's GSL, when the Stupid Gun went off to memorable effect, he hasn’t beaten a top class player in the mirror matchup all year.

Predictions

Essentially, I think that this group comes down to the matchup between Rain and Dear. If Rain beats Dear in their opening match, I feel that he should easily take a match against either MyuNgSiK (whose weak PvP really hurts him in this group) or Dream (whose TvP is great, but just not on the same level as Rain’s current dominance). However, if Rain loses the opening match, then it likely becomes a shootout between the three protosses for 2nd place where anything can happen. Either way, Dream should advance from the group—he’s got more than enough to take out both MyuNgSiK and Dear here. His bubble might still burst; just not this day.

Dream > MyuNgSiK
Dear > Rain
Dream > Dear
MyuNgSiK < Rain
Dear < Rain

Dream and Rain advance.