Dreamhack Tours: Player Guide

On May 08 2015 17:35 kochanfe wrote:
In bold are my predictions for each player previewed here, complete with reasoning for each. Not that anyone cares what I think... By the way, I'm fully aware bracket luck plays a HUGE role in all this, but these are simply my picks without regard to that particular factor.
Serral: + Show Spoiler +

A strong dark horse pick. Quite a decent bet for Ro16 provided he doesn't get an all-Korean Ro32 group.

TRUE: + Show Spoiler +

Ro8 or Ro4. Would have to get a pretty unlucky draw to fall out before that.

ForGG: + Show Spoiler +

Could see him getting as high as Ro4 or even the Finals if he plays well. Far more likely to fall out somewhere in the vicinity of Ro16 in my opinion, however.

Bunny: + Show Spoiler +

Certainly the safest foreigner pick for a Ro4 finish. Capable of taking out all the Korean Terrans and Protosses in attendance (save maybe PartinG). But if he draws Leenock, Hydra, Sacsri, or TRUE I think he's done. I'll go ahead and say Ro16...

GuMiho: + Show Spoiler +

Has been to more DreamHacks than almost any other Korean here. Better than some of his fellow Koreans, worse than others. I'm pegging him for a Ro16 exit, certainly no further than Ro8.

San: + Show Spoiler +

Despite a WCS EU 2nd place last year with Ro4s on either side of it, undoubtedly one of the weaker Koreans in attendance. May fall to a foreigner or two and will likely exit in the Ro32 unless he gets all Zergs.

FanTaSy: + Show Spoiler +

Has been playing extremely well lately, though is still less experienced on big foreign stages than most of the other Koreans in attendence. Going solely off skill, he's easily top two or three. If he gets mostly Zergs I could see him going all the way. All things considered though, I'm betting Ro8.

Sacsri: + Show Spoiler +

Certainly capable of surprising and placing high, but I'll be conservative and say Ro16.

Snute: + Show Spoiler +

After Bunny, the most reliable current Korean-killing foreigner in the tournament. Could make Ro8, but I think with this lineup Ro16 or Ro32 is more reasonable, sad to say.

MarineKing: + Show Spoiler +

Yeah... I'm not really sure why he came. Ro32

PartinG: + Show Spoiler +

You kinda gotta put him top two, right? After Hydra, he's my favorite to win the tournament, and I'd favor him against all the other Zergs here. 1st or 2nd.

Dayshi: + Show Spoiler +

Ro32 I guess... with a weaker field I could see him making it further but with this lot, nah.
MC: You never know with MC... but I'd say he's more likely to lose to foreigners than most of these Koreans, so I'm going with Ro32, mayyyybe Ro16.

Heart: + Show Spoiler +

Definitely not amongst the strongest Koreans here. If he gets a good Ro32 group he could definitely advance, if not, he's done. Ro32 or Ro16.

HuK: + Show Spoiler +

Sorry HuK, Ro32.

Rain: + Show Spoiler +

Hasn't been in top form of late, but in terms of sheer caliber, you've gotta say he's top eight at least. Might get Ro4, should get Ro8, could get lower if he draws someone like GuMiho or FanTaSy in the Ro16.

Lilbow: + Show Spoiler +

Could absolutely get Ro16 if he gets the right group. His powerful, somewhat wonky PvZ is definitely capable of catching a couple Korean Zergs (of which there are ample in this tournament) off guard. That said, I think Ro32 is more likely.

Harstem: + Show Spoiler +

Like Lilbow, could get Ro16 given the right group, but I don't think it likely given the caliber of the players here. (Ro32)

Patience: + Show Spoiler +

He has had his ups and downs, but he has proven he is capable of beating very strong players. His PvT and PvZ are pretty cheesy if I recall, but his PvP is dangerous. Could see him taking home a Ro16, maybe even a Ro8 if he's lucky.

MaNa: + Show Spoiler +

See Lilbow and Harstem... (Ro32)

Welmu: + Show Spoiler +

Like Serral, I could see him reaching the Ro16 if he doesn't have three Koreans in his Ro32 group. One of the stronger foreigners at this tournament, to be sure. With the sheer volume of Koreans here however, Ro32 seems equally likely.

MMA: + Show Spoiler +

MMA is one of the few players I'm completely undecided on. I think it REALLY depends on who he's matched up against. If he lands Terrans or foreigners I wouldn't put it past him to steal a Ro4. However, if he gets stuck with Korean Zergs and Protosses (of which there are many strong ones at this tournament) he could be gone early. I'll go ahead and go with Ro16, but I'd be very happy to be proven wrong.

MarineLord: + Show Spoiler +

Will play very well. Might beat a Korean Zerg. Still won't get past the Ro32.

Xenocider: + Show Spoiler +

One of the best Terrans in NA. Played very well to qualify for WCS. Even with those distinctions, he is (along with Petraeus) the player on this list I deem most likely to go out in the Ro64. Still, barring some very bad luck, he'll make Ro32.

uThermal: + Show Spoiler +

Gotta admit, I know less about him than any other player on this list. That said, he should be a Ro32 casualty.

Scarlett: + Show Spoiler +

I'm glad she's back. Unfortunately I don't believe she is in Korean-killing form, a quality that is required to make it past the Ro32 of this stacked event.

TLO: + Show Spoiler +

Seems unlikely to make it past the Ro32 to me, but with a little creative play (wink wink) he mayyyy be able to show his face in the Ro16.

Bly: + Show Spoiler +

Has proven he can beat Korean Protosses like Rain online, but at a high-profile event like this with WCS points to be had, I don't think he'll make it past the Ro32.

Hydra: + Show Spoiler +

Along with PartinG, my number one pick for the tournament. There are five players who are even capable of taking him out and their names are: PartinG, TRUE, Leenock, Sacsri, and FanTaSy (barely), and ALL of those I'd give him at LEAST a 50% chance of beating, if not much higher. 1st or 2nd.

Leenock: + Show Spoiler +

One of my absolute top picks as well. After PartinG and Hydra, I'd say Leenock belongs to a second tier of contenders populated by the likes of TRUE and Rain (with Sacsri and FanTaSy right on their heels, if not even). Gonna go ahead and say Ro4 but would not be shocked if he went all the way (or, admittedly, got killed by one of these other guys earlier due to some unlucky draw).

HyuN: + Show Spoiler +

A dark horse for me. Up until very recently was looking rather shaky. Has yet to play his SSL group but the mere fact he's gotten to the Ro16 says a lot. Could get bopped in the Ro32 or Ro16 or could go all the way, I honestly have no idea. I guess I'll split the difference and call it Ro8...

Petraeus: + Show Spoiler +

Yeah... he squeaked by in the WCS EU qualifiers, but he won't go further than Ro32 (and might even get killed in the Ro64 if the wrong people come up into his group).

BONUS:
Ruin: + Show Spoiler +

And the award for the only Korean who might actually get killed in the Ro64 goes to..... Nah. In all honesty, he'll make Ro32 but he'd have to get a crazily easy group (WCS Premier Group D, anyone?) to make the bracket.

TargA: + Show Spoiler +

Didn't this guy make it to the Ro4 of DreamHack once? WHAT IF HE..... oh wait, it's 2015. Ro32.

Zanster: + Show Spoiler +

Not particularly well known. Actually VERY good. Still won't make it past the Ro32...

FireCake: + Show Spoiler +

Has been slowly rising through the foreign ranks and can now honestly be said to be amongst the strongest foreigners out there. Has proved he has the ability to beat Koreans, toppling Rain 3-2 and Soulkey 3-0 (online) and even 3-0ing TRUE irl. What's more, he's playing on his home turf. FireCake's my dark horse pick for a Ro8 finish and I wouldn't put it past him to beat three or four or five Koreans to get there.

Whew... done. I know I've got an inordinate number of Ro8 and Ro16 finishers, but bear in mind that I tried to be relatively optimistic for each player on the list.
TL;DR:
Favorites: PartinG, Hydra, TRUE, Rain, Leenock, Sacsri, FanTaSy (probably in roughly that order)
Dark Horses: ForGG, HyuN, Bunny, Snute, FireCake (lol)

EDIT: Added spoiler tags...

Rain can also beat Hydra (he beat him 3 times in 2015

Dreamhack Tours: Player Guide - Page 2

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