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East Gorteau22261 Posts
On September 02 2014 18:17 Franky92 wrote:
I suppose Rain paid TL writers to gain 1st place, and Maru paid even more. Flash has done all you said about Rain (Proleague, Kespa Cup qualifiers, 1st in GSL group), and he also won IEM. How the hell must he do to gain 1st spot? Will Kespa Cup and GSL be enough?
Sure, I reckon winning one of them would be enough. What I'd like to see from Flash in order for him to reach #1 is consistency. He was a beast in August, but so was Rain (to a slightly lesser extent), and Rain has been in great form for much longer.
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On September 02 2014 18:38 Zealously wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2014 18:17 Franky92 wrote:
I suppose Rain paid TL writers to gain 1st place, and Maru paid even more. Flash has done all you said about Rain (Proleague, Kespa Cup qualifiers, 1st in GSL group), and he also won IEM. How the hell must he do to gain 1st spot? Will Kespa Cup and GSL be enough? Sure, I reckon winning one of them would be enough. What I'd like to see from Flash in order for him to reach #1 is consistency. He was a beast in August, but so was Rain (to a slightly lesser extent), and Rain has been in great form for much longer.
Assuming the powerranks here are intended to show which players are most likely to perform the best over the next 1-2 months, I believe you are using consistency in the wrong way.
You should only look at data from several months ago, if the quality of the data you have over the most recent 1-2 months isn't good enough. For instance if sample size is too small or he has played against inferior opponents. In the case of Flash that isn't the case. All you need to know about Flash's current strenght is in his results since July, and they are insane. On top of that you could discuss whether he is gimmicky and can be figured out.... which everyone probably can agree isn't the case.
Thus, there is just no need to put weight on some of his losses in January or w/e, because everything points to him being a much better player today than back then.
Rate how based on how strong he currently looks and assess whether that is good enough to outperform Rain or vice versa. Don't rate on how he good he used to be when we can be almost certain that his skill level has changed.
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East Gorteau22261 Posts
On September 02 2014 02:59 Zealously wrote:
The fact that this is the first Power Rank since December made me hesitant to just cut off at August 1 and exclusively count results from August. Since this ranking is the first in a while, I put slightly more emphasis on consistency and past results. That said, I would not make any major changes even if I didn't.
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On September 02 2014 18:56 Zealously wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2014 02:59 Zealously wrote:
The fact that this is the first Power Rank since December made me hesitant to just cut off at August 1 and exclusively count results from August. Since this ranking is the first in a while, I put slightly more emphasis on consistency and past results. That said, I would not make any major changes even if I didn't.
Yes, but you gotta outline what you want powerranks to answer. Is it who is the most likely player to perform the best in the near future?
Or is it, who was the best player over the last 6 months?
Typically powerranks attempt to answer the 1st question, becasue that is indeed the most interesting one while the latter is one that simply can be solved much better through statistical analysis than subjective discussions.
From my perspective, it looks like start by the methdology before having outlined the problem statement, and thus you end up with a product where your not really answering anything at all.
So my advice to your next powerrank: Start by clearly stating what the powerrank is supposed to answer, and then spend a bit of time explaining the factors you take into account in order to answer the question.
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On September 02 2014 18:56 Zealously wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2014 02:59 Zealously wrote:
The fact that this is the first Power Rank since December made me hesitant to just cut off at August 1 and exclusively count results from August. Since this ranking is the first in a while, I put slightly more emphasis on consistency and past results. That said, I would not make any major changes even if I didn't.
I would put sOs above Polt in any ranking. Both Polt and sOs had a disappointing result at IEM Toronto but if you put Polt and sOs in another tournament, it's more likely that sOs would get further. Not to mention that sOs has the highest win rate in Proleague, among the top 20 players with the most games played. I'm certain if Polt were somehow part of the Ro16 group selection stage of the GSL, most players would rather have Polt in their group than sOs.
Polt has not performed well playing against mediocre competition in the last several months (his win over Taeja was his biggest accomplishment). Similarly, I wouldn't rank Hyun, MC, or Stardust above sOs either.
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On September 02 2014 19:02 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2014 18:56 Zealously wrote:On September 02 2014 02:59 Zealously wrote:
The fact that this is the first Power Rank since December made me hesitant to just cut off at August 1 and exclusively count results from August. Since this ranking is the first in a while, I put slightly more emphasis on consistency and past results. That said, I would not make any major changes even if I didn't. Yes, but you gotta outline what you want powerranks to answer. Is it who is the most likely player to perform the best in the near future? Or is it, who was the best player over the last 6 months? Typically powerranks attempt to answer the 1st question, becasue that is indeed the most interesting one while the latter is one that simply can be solved much better through statistical analysis than subjective discussions. From my perspective, it looks like start by the methdology before having outlined the problem statement, and thus you end up with a product where your not really answering anything at all. So my advice to your next powerrank: Start by clearly stating what the powerrank is supposed to answer, and then spend a bit of time explaining the factors you take into account in order to answer the question.
i dont understand why people say this in every power rank thread??? it seems like its just the people who disagree with the ranking who decide they have to nitpick the way the article was made. why do they "have to outline anything"? why can't they just lay down some loose rules, rank players and let the discussion fly? this is esports, not academia, the whole point of this is to stir good natured debate, not to be annoying pedants about the technical specifications for the list.... do some of you just have OCD and need everything to follow some kind of precisely-defined axiom?
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How can maru be higher than flash? This goes against all logic. Seriously what the..?
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On September 02 2014 19:15 lastride wrote:
How can maru be higher than flash? This goes against all logic. Seriously what the..?
The Power Rank focuses most on the month pertains to, but also takes past results into account
The Power Rank takes into account both results and the difficulty of opponents faced.
A player's placement on the Power Rank does not suggest that the player is better or worse than a higher ranked player in head-to-head. This ranking is an overall appraisal of a player, not an attempt to answer the question ”Who beats who?”
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i dont understand why people say this in every power rank thread??? it seems like its just the people who disagree with the ranking who decide they have to nitpick the way the article was made. why do they "have to outline anything"? why can't they just lay down some loose rules, rank players and let the discussion fly? this is esports, not academia, the whole point of this is to stir good natured debate, not to be annoying pedants about the technical specifications for the list.... do some of you just have OCD and need everything to follow some kind of precisely-defined axiom?
People don't say this in every thread, and its not even about who's rank 1 or who's rank 2, becasue my post didn't comment on that at all - and I couldn't care less.
My point is that if one doesn't attempt to answer a question, then you end up with these types of discussions where people have no idea what they are disagreeing on, which makes for terrible discussions.
LIke let's take your logic to the extreme: I am gonna make a poweranking where I say I take into account both historical results and short-term results:
1) MVP
2) Flash
3) Nestea
4) MMA
5) Polt
6) MC
7) Maru
8) DRG
9) Jaedong
10) Liquid.Hero
Now, it's time to discuss.
Like wtf are you supposed to answer with these rankings? It just follows random weights of historical results, and clearly it doesn't attempt to predict who is likely to be do well over the next couple of months.
Point is, if you want a serious debate you gotta go a bit more smart on being very precise on what the discussion is supposed to be about. If you just want random flaming wars, you can make these random rankings that doesn't attempt to answer any question.
I very much disagree in that its important to make a rank of who did the best over the past 6 months - because that's not what a powerrank typically is and raw statistics does a better job here - however if that is what the author wanted to do, then he should have made that extremely clear. Had he done that, I would have thought the powerrank was pointless, but I wouldn't have commented on it.
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On September 02 2014 19:19 ZAiNs wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2014 19:15 lastride wrote:
How can maru be higher than flash? This goes against all logic. Seriously what the..? The Power Rank focuses most on the month pertains to, but also takes past results into accountThe Power Rank takes into account both results and the difficulty of opponents faced. A player's placement on the Power Rank does not suggest that the player is better or worse than a higher ranked player in head-to-head. This ranking is an overall appraisal of a player, not an attempt to answer the question ”Who beats who?”
Yeah, easiest way to see it is to say that a Power Ranking is inertial in nature. You don't fall off of or climb to the top in one shot. It's obvious that Flash has more momentum than Maru at the moment, so if this trends continues, surely eventually Flash will be higher on that list. But not yet.
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flash is 48-13, let's take that in...
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On September 02 2014 20:07 ZenithM wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2014 19:19 ZAiNs wrote:On September 02 2014 19:15 lastride wrote:
How can maru be higher than flash? This goes against all logic. Seriously what the..? The Power Rank focuses most on the month pertains to, but also takes past results into accountThe Power Rank takes into account both results and the difficulty of opponents faced. A player's placement on the Power Rank does not suggest that the player is better or worse than a higher ranked player in head-to-head. This ranking is an overall appraisal of a player, not an attempt to answer the question ”Who beats who?” Yeah, easiest way to see it is to say that a Power Ranking is inertial in nature. You don't fall off of or climb to the top in one shot. It's obvious that Flash has more momentum than Maru at the moment, so if this trends continues, surely eventually Flash will be higher on that list. But not yet.
The issue is still why it does take results from 6 months into account. What is that supposed to accomplish?
I believe the implementation of past results is due to OP being intuitively knowing that past results does matter in some situations when you want to predict the future. For instance, we know Maru is still a world-class player even if he hasn't had results in August
Thus, he made up a general rule where past results always were supposed to matter (maybe he also wanted to make a random of who was the best players over the last 6 months - it's not really clear what exactly he wants to answer).
However, what he instead should have done - assuming he wanted to maximize predicting power - was to try and understand when past results should be considered and when not. Previously I outlined that when the quality of results over the last 1-2 months is extremely high (such as in the case of Flash) you can completely ignore results that goes much further back than that.
So Flash should be assessed based on his results since July only and Maru should be assessed on a longer-time frame.
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So ok, this is my lats post, but I wanted to say that overall Zealously still is doing a great job here. He is definitely still a ton better than the average power-ranker in the media. I just hope he can improve on a couple of areas going forward.
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East Gorteau22261 Posts
On September 02 2014 20:22 Hider wrote:
So ok, this is my lats post, but I wanted to say that overall Zealously still is doing a great job here. He is definitely still a ton better than the average power-ranker in the media. I just hope he can improve on a couple of areas going forward.
Thank you for your feedback.
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On September 02 2014 04:27 KalWarkov wrote:Flash Rain Maru are clearly the top 3 of august - the order is debatable. After that it gets messy. Zest, soO, Cure (sick record in august vs amazing opponents) and Teaja could all take it, i would go with Zest or soO though. Polt clearly doesnt belong to the top 10, although he 3-0d Taeja - but that speaks more of Taejas TvT weakness than of Polts strengh (got 2-0d by Bunny, too - quite inconsistent). It's rather Innovation, Parting or Life after that in my books - first 2 didnt do much recently you might think, but they are still in Ro16 of code S. Life is still one of the best zergs and recently showed it, too. Stats and Soulkey might be candidates, too. This makes #1-3 Flash, Maru,  Rain #4-5 Zest,  soO #6-7 Taeja, Cure #8-10 PartinG, INnoVation, Life, ( Stats, Soulkey) Foreigners: VortiX belongs there, although no games in august. before august, him, scarlett and snute were considered one level - how did people forget? Sen overrated imo, very inconsistent (see Acer teammatch, lost every single game). no idea how you can put him over Bunny...
Can't agree more !
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On September 02 2014 20:41 Faefae wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2014 04:27 KalWarkov wrote:Flash Rain Maru are clearly the top 3 of august - the order is debatable. After that it gets messy. Zest, soO, Cure (sick record in august vs amazing opponents) and Teaja could all take it, i would go with Zest or soO though. Polt clearly doesnt belong to the top 10, although he 3-0d Taeja - but that speaks more of Taejas TvT weakness than of Polts strengh (got 2-0d by Bunny, too - quite inconsistent). It's rather Innovation, Parting or Life after that in my books - first 2 didnt do much recently you might think, but they are still in Ro16 of code S. Life is still one of the best zergs and recently showed it, too. Stats and Soulkey might be candidates, too. This makes #1-3 Flash, Maru, Rain #4-5 Zest, soO #6-7 Taeja, Cure #8-10 PartinG, INnoVation, Life, ( Stats, Soulkey) Foreigners: VortiX belongs there, although no games in august. before august, him, scarlett and snute were considered one level - how did people forget? Sen overrated imo, very inconsistent (see Acer teammatch, lost every single game). no idea how you can put him over Bunny... Can't agree more !
i know my shit, im doing rankings since i was born
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On September 02 2014 18:38 Zealously wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2014 18:17 Franky92 wrote:
I suppose Rain paid TL writers to gain 1st place, and Maru paid even more. Flash has done all you said about Rain (Proleague, Kespa Cup qualifiers, 1st in GSL group), and he also won IEM. How the hell must he do to gain 1st spot? Will Kespa Cup and GSL be enough? Sure, I reckon winning one of them would be enough. What I'd like to see from Flash in order for him to reach #1 is consistency. He was a beast in August, but so was Rain (to a slightly lesser extent), and Rain has been in great form for much longer.
You mean consistency like this ?
Results for  Flash after 2014-01-01.
Games: 68.89% (124-56)
Matches: 69.79% (67-29)
Current form:
W W W W L W W W W W
Recent matches:
Flash 4 – 1 Zest
Flash 3 – 1 TaeJa
Flash 3 – 2  Snute
Flash 2 – 0 MC
Flash 2 – 0  Scarlett
Flash 1 – 2 MC
Flash 2 – 0 Solar
Flash 2 – 0 Dark
Flash 2 – 1 Soulkey
Flash 2 – 0 EffOrt
Filters:
+ Show Spoiler +Opponent Race: all
Opponent Country: all
Match Format: all
On/offline: both
Game Version: all
Stats by Aligulac. Link.
On September 02 2014 20:25 Zealously wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2014 20:22 Hider wrote:
So ok, this is my lats post, but I wanted to say that overall Zealously still is doing a great job here. He is definitely still a ton better than the average power-ranker in the media. I just hope he can improve on a couple of areas going forward. Thank you for your feedback.
Yeah this is totally right, don't get me wrong with the nitpicking i do, overall i agree with you, but it is fun to argue a bit about certain aspects 
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Zealously against the world, part 2
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EPT
