EPTRo16: Group B Preview
Welmu, 
YoDa, MC, ToDCountdown: 0m 0s
by Darkhorse
It was an interesting opening day in WCS EU Round of 16 as the foreigner favorite VortiX advanced in first place while rising star Snute dropped out in fourth. Today, ToD and Welmu will hope to give Europe their second and third spots in the quarter finals as they take on the EU-residing Koreans MC and YoDa.
While often overlooked for more popular players such as VortiX and Snute,
NrS.Welmu was one of three foreigners to make the quarterfinals of Season 1, and he will hope to at least match that accomplishment tonight. This season got off to a good start for the Finnish Protoss, as he was able to secure first place in his Ro32 group after beating both DeMusliM and Stephano. It may not have been the most difficult of groups, but Welmu took care of business and now finds himself in the Ro16 for the fourth straight season. Unfortunately, Welmu has recently been having health issues affect his play, and he was forced to cancel his participation in what would have been his first ever Homestory Cup this past weekend. It'll be one of the question marks hanging over his head this evening, but hopefully he has recovered in time to compete at his best.Another curiosity is Welmu mixed bag of results in the past few months. In April, he did well enough at Dreamhack Bucharest to make the Ro16 before losing to Innovation 2-1, even knocking out RorO along the way. In the Acer Teamstory Cup, Welmu has been the workhorse for NewRoSoft but came up with a mediocre 12-15 overall record (although he did score an all kill over Millenium). Welmu's odds of making it to the Ro8 will hinge on his PvP, which is fortunately his strong suit. Though he has lost several high profile mirrors, such as his 0-3 loss to San last season, he still maintains a reliable winrate above 60%. It's a good indication that he should be more than capable of reaching the Ro8, and it seems he feels confident going into tonight:
Before he can face a Protoss, however, he'll have to defeat the currently teamless
YoDa, who has decided to take up residence in Europe to go along with his switch to the WCS EU region. This has allowed him to attend more European tournaments, and the results have been, well, disappointing. The ex-IEM "World champion" and "best player on IM" (according to Mvp) failed to get to the bracket stage of Dreamhack Bucharest, and was eliminated in the first group stage from last weekend's Homestory Cup. Since coming to Europe, YoDa has yet to become a legitimate title threat akin to players like MMA, MC, and San. Rather, he has only performed as a slightly above average European Terran, and he will need a strong performance in WCS Season 2 to dispel this reputation.When predicting WCS groups you tend to respect the Korean flag, but YoDa hasn't given much reason to consider him a favorite here. Although he is notable for being one of two terrans to make it to the Ro16, it is uncertain whether he will be able to join his brother in blue ForGG in the Ro8. His advancement from the Ro32 was built entirely on his TvT, as he was able to come back from a first set defeat and trumped both Jjakji and Bunny in a rematch to advance. He will only have to practice one matchup for this group, but his loss to MaNa at HSC has revealed a striking vulnerability. It is worth noting that YoDa was part of the ill-fated Bounty Hunters "team" that attemped to qualify for Acer Teamstory Cup, but was all killed by YoDa's first opponent Welmu in the final round of the qualifier. YoDa has a shot at advancing here, but there is also a decent chance that ForGG will be carrying the Terran flag alone in the Ro8.
Also representing Korea is none other than the Boss Toss and WCS EU Season 1 Champion,
MC. MC has been a pillar of consistency in WCS, having made the finals for three-straight seasons, winning his first title in almost 2 years by defeating MMA 4-2 last season. Since then, he has been in his usual MC-form, making Ro8 at Dreamhack before being stopped by a rampaging Impact, handling his Ro32 group with little trouble, and reaching the final of HSC 9. It seems that time hasn't affected MC at all, and he continues to be a threat to take any tournament he enters. His first obstacle to the quarterfinals will be ToD, a dangerous opponent for anyone. However, MC should be the clear favorite to take that opening matchup. Beyond that, Welmu and YoDa could both bring their own challenges to MC, but he should be considered the favorite against either one as well. One could look at MC's 0-4 drubbing in the HSC 9 finals and think that his PvT is a weak point, but it has to be noted that Taeja is a vastly different player to YoDa and prior to the finals MC defeated Jjakji 3-0 and an in-form Dayshi 3-1. MC's other loss at HSC came to HasuObs, but it appeared to be the exception rather than the norm. Like YoDa, MC was on the Bounty Hunters when Welmu banished them from the Acer Teamstory Cup, a loss which surely stung most for MC who was defeated twice by Welmu on that day. If all goes as it should here, MC will have a chance at revenge, and should be considered the odds on favorite for first place.
Although we may have dismissed him as the underdog, the final player in the group is the man we have come to know and love as a caster and analyst for WCS EU,
XMG.ToD. However, ToD continues to show that his new gig hasn't sapped his competitive spirit by managing to beat Mvp and uThermal to advance in second place from his Ro32 group. Just maintaining a spot in Premier League and being a great caster and analyst at the same time is an incredible feat by itself, but this season ToD seems more impressive than ever as a player. Also notable is ToD's Ro16 finish at Dreamhack, after he was able to defeat both Golden and Jaedong in upset victories in his Ro32 group.ToD is the wildcard of Group B, and he has beaten many favorites before. Unfortunately, he didn't play particularly well at HSC 9 where he was knocked out early with losses to Ret and Balloon (who randomed Protoss in both of their games). Even worse, his initial match is a PvP against the defending champion, perhaps the worst draw of the Ro16. Beyond MC, ToD should have a fairly good chance against whoever he faces. A PvP against Welmu can go either way, and ToD has a fair chance to squeeze past YoDa and avenge his recent defeat to him at TakeTV ULTRA Invitational. It would be an incredible feat for everyone's favorite Frenchman to reach the Ro8, but he will be looking to score some upsets here and do just that.
Overall thoughts and Prediction:
MC should without a doubt be the favorite to advance here. His PvP has always been world class, and he will most likely ride that to a first place finish. Predicting who finished behind him might be a little tougher to predict. Although it remains to be seen how his health problems have affected his play, Welmu seems to have the edge in both confidence and winrates. ToD has historically had a difficult time in the matchup, while YoDa recently lost to MaNa in HSC9, but either could pull a fast one and claim the spot for themselves.
Welmu > YoDa
MC > ToD
Welmu < MC
YoDa > ToD
Welmu > YoDa
MC and Welmu advance.
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