Heading into the final week of Proleague Round 2, things are still very much up in the air. Jin Air Green Wings is the only team to have clinched a playoff berth, while Samsung Galaxy and Prime are out of the running. The remaining five teams MVP, KT Rolster, CJ Entus, SKT, IM all have a chance to make the playoff cut. Here are the matches for the fifth and final week.
Just as in Round 1, SKT and IM are in must-win mode going into the final week. It's interesting to see the tweaks they made to their rosters since then.
Given Yonghwa's poor Proleague and individual league performances since then it's not particularly shocking to see him left out of the line-up. What IS surprising is that partner-team Startale have now been left out of the lineup for three straight weeks. As for SKT:
Despite reaching the semifinals of GSL, soO hasn't been especially important to SKT in Proleague, with just a 3-4 record. This is pretty much the true SKT "A" Team.
State is playing again! (and eins, too): Prime can't make the playoffs, but they can still improve their position and earn a few more valuable points (used to qualify for the year-end playoffs). While a player from North America and a player who has been in exactly one official game in his career head to the studio, ByuN's dog continues to put up "have you seen my master?" posters around Incheon.
Other MIAs: WCG 2013 silver medalist CJ_Sora has now been missing from his team's line-up for four consecutive weeks now. Lord of evil Sniper hasn't been played since week 2.
In a cuddly coincidence, DongRaeGu is playing both Liquid`Bunny and CJ_Bunny in the span of 2 days.
11 Terran, 6 Zerg, and 15 Protoss players have been fielded in the final week.
The Playoff Picture
by lichter and Waxangel
The playoff picture is too complicated to break down completely, but we can at least talk about a few scenarios from the perspective from each team. Please correct us if our logic is wrong.
#1: Jin Air
Can lose the #1 seed if: KT Rolster defeats Prime and IM by a combined map difference of 4 or more. CJ Entus and MVP cannot overtake Jin Air because of penalties.
#2: MVP (1 warning)
Can clinch playoff spot regardless of other results if: They don't lose 0-3 to CJ Entus.
Can ONLY be eliminated if: They lose 0-3 to CJ Entus AND SKT beat CJ 3-1 AND KT Rolster go 1-1 or better. It's possible that there are some tie scenarios for MVP-CJ-SKT that we're not aware of.
#3: KT Rolster
Can clinch playoff spot regardless of other results if: They go at LEAST 1-1 with +1 map differential.
Can take #1 seed if: They go 2-0 with a combined map differential of +4 or more.
Can be eliminated regardless of other results if: They go 0-2 with a combined map differential of -3 or more. There are some complicated scenarios where KT Rolster can go 1-1 and be eliminated depending on how CJ and SKT perform.
#4: CJ Entus (1 warning)
Can clinch playoff spot regardless of other results if: They beat SKT by any score.
Can clinch playoff spot with help from other teams if: Too complicated to figure out.
Can be eliminated if regardless of other results if: They go 0-2 with a combined map differential of -4 or more.
#5: SK Telecom T1
Can clinch playoff spot regardless of other results if: They beat CJ Entus by 3-1 or more.
Can be eliminated regardless of other results if: They lose 0-3 to CJ Entus AND PartinG earns a penalty point by smashing a steel chair over Coach Park's head.
#6: Incredible Miracle
All of IM's qualification scenarios require them to beat KT while KT loses to Prime. So..... yeah.
tbh I'm not too surprised to see ST players left out. I know I might sound like a broken record cause I've said it a few times before but there were really only 2 players on ST worth picking up for the team league and they were Curious and Life. Life is busy with GSL and traveling and all that shit and Curious is more of someone I see being reserved for like ZvT sniper or something if they make it to the all kill format playoffs.
Also the Jin Air #1 scenario says KT is playing MVP and CJ instead of Prime and IM
Can lose the #1 seed if: KT Rolster defeats MVP and CJ Entus by a combined map difference of 4 or more
On March 23 2014 11:08 Shellshock wrote: tbh I'm not too surprised to see ST players left out. I know I might sound like a broken record cause I've said it a few times before but there were really only 2 players on ST worth picking up for the team league and they were Curious and Life. Life is busy with GSL and traveling and all that shit and Curious is more of someone I see being reserved for like ZvT sniper or something if they make it to the all kill format playoffs.
Also the Jin Air #1 scenario says KT is playing MVP and CJ instead of Prime and IM
On March 23 2014 11:23 The_Templar wrote: IM beats KT 3-2 CJ beats SKT 3-0 Prime beats KT 3-0 CJ does anything against MVP
This would put JinAir/MVP first/second, CJ third, prime 4th, no?
According to Wax in the CJ vs SKT thread, Prime is already out due to penalties (I guess they factor in for other ways besides map differential?). If that is not true, then your outline should be correct.
Thought CJ can still displace MVP for 2nd place in the playoffs.
Prime can't make Playoffs but #5 is better than #8 like the last round. Too bad about the penalty points and the Ace matches going the wrong way for Prime, otherwise they would have made playoffs in 4th at the very least. Losing 0-3 to CJ didn't help either.
Prime winning vs KT would make me very happy. I look forward to Round 3 and how Prime will do in that round.
So IM vs KT should go KT's way with a 3-1 at the very least and Prime should sweep KT with a 3-0/3-1 to take 5th place I believe as IM is left with -4/-5/-6/ vs Prime's -1/-2/-3 if they win.
If CJ wins 3-0, then even SKT1 could fall below Prime lol.
Good news is that Prime cannot fall below Samsung outside or 2 extra penalty points or something.
On March 23 2014 11:10 Waxangel wrote: tell us if our logic is bad
I remember reading a few days ago that Prime weren't out of the running, but they are now? Is there an explanation?
Apparently they have too many warnings which penalize you in points to make it into the playoffs
On March 23 2014 12:53 Holdenintherye wrote: So what were these warnings for? o.O
well I know 1 was for Marineking using the Korean gg instead of actual gg. You also get warnings for stuff like being late, watching replays between matches, and some other things I believe.
Can be eliminated if regardless of other results if: They lose 0-3 to CJ Entus AND PartinG earns a penalty point by smashing a steel chair over Coach Park's head.
On March 23 2014 11:02 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: #5: SK Telecom T1
Can clinch playoff spot regardless of other results if: They beat CJ Entus by 3-1 or more.
Can be eliminated if regardless of other results if: They lose 0-3 to CJ Entus AND PartinG earns a penalty point by smashing a steel chair over Coach Park's head
Rofl, that's a lot of specific creative imagination to be just that - did that already happen by any chance ??
As long as KT can get 2 wins in their match against Prime they're in.
If they win 3-0 they'll be guaranteed 3rd place. Any other victory can also secure them 3rd place but they'll need help from MVP vs. CJ match. Speaking of that, whoever wins that match gets 2nd place. Jin Air clinched top spot already.
If KT loses 2-3 they'll be 4th and whoever loses MVP vs. CJ gets 3rd place regardless of score.
Now here come the interesting parts.
If KT loses 0-3, they'll be out at 7th, while SKT, IM and Prime get all tied up at 3-4, -1. I'm not too sure where to go next. If you count win-lose relation, then SKT should get 4th place, having defeated both IM and Prime previously. However, if you count the total number of wins, Prime will actually be in the lead.
If KT loses 1-3, Prime will be out at 7th. KT, IM and SKT get tied up at 3-4, -1. Same confusion here. In terms of win-lose relation it's a 3 way tie (SKT > IM, IM > KT, KT > SKT). If you count total number of wins, KT will be in the lead.
On March 23 2014 22:52 dyDrawer wrote: Ok.. so after today's matches:
As long as KT can get 2 wins in their match against Prime they're in.
If they win 3-0 they'll be guaranteed 3rd place. Any other victory can also secure them 3rd place but they'll need help from MVP vs. CJ match. Speaking of that, whoever wins that match gets 2nd place. Jin Air clinched top spot already.
If KT loses 2-3 they'll be 4th and whoever loses MVP vs. CJ gets 3rd place regardless of score.
Now here come the interesting parts.
If KT loses 0-3, they'll be out at 7th, while SKT, IM and Prime get all tied up at 3-4, -1. I'm not too sure where to go next. If you count win-lose relation, then SKT should get 4th place, having defeated both IM and Prime previously. However, if you count the total number of wins, Prime will actually be in the lead.
If KT loses 1-3, Prime will be out at 7th. KT, IM and SKT get tied up at 3-4, -1. Same confusion here. In terms of win-lose relation it's a 3 way tie (SKT > IM, IM > KT, KT > SKT). If you count total number of wins, KT will be in the lead.
Ok so I didn't see the part about Prime's penalty points. In that case, if KT loses 0-3, SKT should be in at 4th.
On March 24 2014 01:37 prabhbhambra13 wrote: Prime please win. I think it might be doable as long as KT played like they did today.
Creator>TY is possible enis will have to cheese the hell out of Flash hopefully it works MKP might be able to take out Stats
I think there's a significantly higher chance of State beating Zest than eins beating Flash. If State doesn't take a build order loss and can pull off a clean strategy, PvP is a much more volatile matchup than TvT.
That said, KT still has a big edge here, but it would be great to see Prime pull an upset, even if it doesn't mean anything from a playoff perspective. MKP must not be feeling great about that pause and Korean 'gg' that earned Prime the penalty game loss. I think without it there would still be at least a possibility that Prime could finish 4th?
On March 24 2014 01:37 prabhbhambra13 wrote: Prime please win. I think it might be doable as long as KT played like they did today.
Creator>TY is possible enis will have to cheese the hell out of Flash hopefully it works MKP might be able to take out Stats
I think there's a significantly higher chance of State beating Zest than eins beating Flash. If State doesn't take a build order loss and can pull off a clean strategy, PvP is a much more volatile matchup than TvT.
That said, KT still has a big edge here, but it would be great to see Prime pull an upset, even if it doesn't mean anything from a playoff perspective. MKP must not be feeling great about that pause and Korean 'gg' that earned Prime the penalty game loss. I think without it there would still be at least a possibility that Prime could finish 4th?
Agreed. Zest/Flash are almost sure wins on paper, but then again Flash might decide to do a 15cc vs 2rax or something. Jokes aside, Zest and Flash are clearly expected to win. I would say Stats/TY vs MKP/Creator is equal or maybe slightly KT favoured. I expect a 3-1, anything worse would make me really scratch my head wtf KT is doing.
State getting bad luck in his draws. Classic then Zest, 2 of the top 5 Toss in the world right now. At least Zest is less likely to cheese... but that's what I thought about Classic. GL State.
On March 24 2014 05:32 danmanjones wrote: State getting bad luck in his draws. Classic then Zest, 2 of the top 5 Toss in the world right now. At least Zest is less likely to cheese... but that's what I thought about Classic. GL State.
Hope State cheeses Zest. Proxy 2 gate seems to be super popular since IEM finals. I laughed when herO used the exact build Rain beat him with to then beat PartinG.
partings been looking strong again lately, but i don't think he can smash the chair on coach parks head. maybe two years ago, when he tore through the (back then very strong) terrans with his double forge, tripple nexus built. but right now? i'm not sure...
On March 24 2014 05:54 Holannyeong wrote: Damn I've just decided to start following ProLeague since today's games, but seems like the point system is a bit of a clusterfuck.
I'll just enjoy the games then.
How is it a clusterfuck? You get points for winning maps. Then there are penalty points for no-nos.
On March 24 2014 11:45 jakethesnake wrote: I can't believe that MVP made it.. What world am I living in? Is this some sort of alternate universe where things are backwards?
MVP dominated the last GSTL they were in until the playoff finals--and this was a GSTL with IM, StarTale, AxiomAcer, FXO, etc... and their lineup was almost identical to what it is now. Sure they did badly last round but their game win/loss wasn't nearly as bad as their match win/loss. I'm not surprised at all they're doing well, for one.
On March 24 2014 11:45 jakethesnake wrote: I can't believe that MVP made it.. What world am I living in? Is this some sort of alternate universe where things are backwards?
MVP have a tradition of producing good results in team leagues, they have a GSTL, IPL, ATC gold and other good results spread out over the years. Yeah IM did have the better roster on paper when they both joined KeSPA but it doesn't surprise me at all to see MVP do well again. I guess they must have been really rusty not having anything to compete in for a long time, but PL seems to have this reinvigorating effect on teams.
EPT
HerO < Habitation Station LE > 
Flash
ByuL < Outboxer > ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/HawaiianPig/SPL/SPLstaricon.png)
Prime can't make Playoffs but #5 is better than #8 like the last round. Too bad about the penalty points and the Ace matches going the wrong way for Prime, otherwise they would have made playoffs in 4th at the very least. Losing 0-3 to CJ didn't help either. 
![[image loading]](http://www.georgs-barbershop.de/shop_cfg/genealogieshop/R84.jpg)
