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SPL R2 - Playoff Picture Panic

Forum Index > SC2 General
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SPL R2 - Playoff Picture Panic

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
March 23rd, 2014 02:02 GMT
SKPlanet PRoleague

Proleague Playoff Panic:
Round 2, Week 5 Preview

By: Waxangel

Heading into the final week of Proleague Round 2, things are still very much up in the air. Jin Air Green Wings is the only team to have clinched a playoff berth, while Samsung Galaxy and Prime are out of the running. The remaining five teams MVP, KT Rolster, CJ Entus, SKT, IM all have a chance to make the playoff cut. Here are the matches for the fifth and final week.


Round 2 Standings
1.Jin Air5-217-10+7
2.MVP4-214-10+4
3.KT3-213-10+3
4.CJ3-210-9+1
5.SKT3-311-110
6.IM2-410-13-3
7.Prime2-411-15-4
8.Samsung2-59-17-8
Results and standings on Liquipedia
Videos on Youtube

March 23


Incredible Miracle vs KT Rolster
(P)HerO < Habitation Station LE > (T)Flash
(P)Trap < Polar Night LE > (P)Zest
(P)Squirtle < Yeonsu LE > (T)TY
(Z)ByuL < Outboxer > (P)Stats
Ace: Frost LE

CJ Entus vs SK Telecom T1
(Z)EffOrt < Habitation Station LE > (P)Rain
(T)Bbyong < Polar Night LE > (P)Classic
(P)herO < Yeonsu LE > (P)PartinG
(Z)Hydra < Outboxer > (Z)Soulkey
Ace: Frost LE

March 25


Prime vs KT Rolster
(P)Creator < The King Sejong Station > (T)TY
(T)eins < Outboxer > (T)Flash
(T)MarineKing < Polar Night LE > (P)Stats
(P)State < Yeonsu LE > (P)Zest
Ace: Habitation Station LE

CJ Entus vs MVP
(P)herO < Yeonsu LE > (T)KeeN
(T)Bbyong < Frost LE > (P)Super
(T)Bunny < The King Sejong Station > (Z)DongRaeGu
(Z)Hydra < Habitation Station LE > (T)Dream
Ace: Outboxer

Notes and Observations


  • Just as in Round 1, SKT and IM are in must-win mode going into the final week. It's interesting to see the tweaks they made to their rosters since then.
    • IM's Round 1 Week 5 Team: (P)Squirtle, (P)YongHwa, (Z)ByuL, (P)Trap, (P)HerO (ace). Won 3-2 against Jin Air.
    • IM's Round 2 Week 5 Team: (P)HerO, (P)Trap, (P)Squirtle, (Z)ByuL.

    Given Yonghwa's poor Proleague and individual league performances since then it's not particularly shocking to see him left out of the line-up. What IS surprising is that partner-team Startale have now been left out of the lineup for three straight weeks. As for SKT:
    • SKT's Round 1 Week 5 Team: (P)Classic, (P)PartinG, (Z)soO, (Z)Soulkey. Lost 1-3 to Samsung.
    • SKT's Round 2 Week 5 Team: (P)Rain, (P)Classic, (P)PartinG, (Z)Soulkey.

    Despite reaching the semifinals of GSL, soO hasn't been especially important to SKT in Proleague, with just a 3-4 record. This is pretty much the true SKT "A" Team.

  • (P)State is playing again! (and (T)eins, too): Prime can't make the playoffs, but they can still improve their position and earn a few more valuable points (used to qualify for the year-end playoffs). While a player from North America and a player who has been in exactly one official game in his career head to the studio, ByuN's dog continues to put up "have you seen my master?" posters around Incheon.

  • Other MIAs: WCG 2013 silver medalist (P)CJ_Sora has now been missing from his team's line-up for four consecutive weeks now. Lord of evil (Z)Sniper hasn't been played since week 2.

  • In a cuddly coincidence, (Z)DongRaeGu is playing both Liquid`Bunny and CJ_Bunny in the span of 2 days.

  • 11 Terran, 6 Zerg, and 15 Protoss players have been fielded in the final week.


The Playoff Picture

by lichter and Waxangel

The playoff picture is too complicated to break down completely, but we can at least talk about a few scenarios from the perspective from each team. Please correct us if our logic is wrong.

#1: Jin Air

Can lose the #1 seed if: KT Rolster defeats Prime and IM by a combined map difference of 4 or more. CJ Entus and MVP cannot overtake Jin Air because of penalties.


#2: MVP (1 warning)

Can clinch playoff spot regardless of other results if: They don't lose 0-3 to CJ Entus.

Can ONLY be eliminated if: They lose 0-3 to CJ Entus AND SKT beat CJ 3-1 AND KT Rolster go 1-1 or better. It's possible that there are some tie scenarios for MVP-CJ-SKT that we're not aware of.


#3: KT Rolster

Can clinch playoff spot regardless of other results if: They go at LEAST 1-1 with +1 map differential.

Can take #1 seed if: They go 2-0 with a combined map differential of +4 or more.

Can be eliminated regardless of other results if: They go 0-2 with a combined map differential of -3 or more. There are some complicated scenarios where KT Rolster can go 1-1 and be eliminated depending on how CJ and SKT perform.


#4: CJ Entus (1 warning)

Can clinch playoff spot regardless of other results if: They beat SKT by any score.

Can clinch playoff spot with help from other teams if: Too complicated to figure out.

Can be eliminated if regardless of other results if: They go 0-2 with a combined map differential of -4 or more.


#5: SK Telecom T1

Can clinch playoff spot regardless of other results if: They beat CJ Entus by 3-1 or more.

Can be eliminated regardless of other results if: They lose 0-3 to CJ Entus AND PartinG earns a penalty point by smashing a steel chair over Coach Park's head.


#6: Incredible Miracle

All of IM's qualification scenarios require them to beat KT while KT loses to Prime. So..... yeah.


[image loading]


Writers: lichter and Waxangel
Images: SpoTV
Editors: Waxangel
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TL+ Member
invisigoat
Profile Joined March 2013
184 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-23 02:08:17
March 23 2014 02:06 GMT
#2
Lol poor IM they are better than this. At least their fate is in Prime's hands now
invisigoat
Profile Joined March 2013
184 Posts
March 23 2014 02:07 GMT
#3
On March 23 2014 11:06 invisigoat wrote:
Lol poor IM they are better than this. At least their fate is in Prime's hands now

Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
March 23 2014 02:08 GMT
#4
tbh I'm not too surprised to see ST players left out. I know I might sound like a broken record cause I've said it a few times before but there were really only 2 players on ST worth picking up for the team league and they were Curious and Life. Life is busy with GSL and traveling and all that shit and Curious is more of someone I see being reserved for like ZvT sniper or something if they make it to the all kill format playoffs.

Also the Jin Air #1 scenario says KT is playing MVP and CJ instead of Prime and IM
Can lose the #1 seed if: KT Rolster defeats MVP and CJ Entus by a combined map difference of 4 or more
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33347 Posts
March 23 2014 02:10 GMT
#5
tell us if our logic is bad
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
stuchiu
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Fiddler's Green42661 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-23 02:19:26
March 23 2014 02:19 GMT
#6
On March 23 2014 11:08 Shellshock wrote:
tbh I'm not too surprised to see ST players left out. I know I might sound like a broken record cause I've said it a few times before but there were really only 2 players on ST worth picking up for the team league and they were Curious and Life. Life is busy with GSL and traveling and all that shit and Curious is more of someone I see being reserved for like ZvT sniper or something if they make it to the all kill format playoffs.

Also the Jin Air #1 scenario says KT is playing MVP and CJ instead of Prime and IM
Show nested quote +
Can lose the #1 seed if: KT Rolster defeats MVP and CJ Entus by a combined map difference of 4 or more


Curious is a ZvT God. Yes.
Moderator
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
March 23 2014 02:23 GMT
#7
IM beats KT 3-2
CJ beats SKT 3-0
Prime beats KT 3-0
CJ does anything against MVP

This would put JinAir/MVP first/second, CJ third, prime 4th, no?
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
FrostedMiniWheats
Profile Joined August 2010
United States30730 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-23 02:27:26
March 23 2014 02:26 GMT
#8
On March 23 2014 11:23 The_Templar wrote:
IM beats KT 3-2
CJ beats SKT 3-0
Prime beats KT 3-0
CJ does anything against MVP

This would put JinAir/MVP first/second, CJ third, prime 4th, no?


According to Wax in the CJ vs SKT thread, Prime is already out due to penalties (I guess they factor in for other ways besides map differential?). If that is not true, then your outline should be correct.

Thought CJ can still displace MVP for 2nd place in the playoffs.
NesTea | Mvp | MC | Leenock | Losira | Gumiho | DRG | Taeja | Jinro | Stephano | Thorzain | Sen | Idra |Polt | Bomber | Symbol | Squirtle | Fantasy | Jaedong | Maru | sOs | Seed | ByuN | ByuL | Neeb| Scarlett | Rogue | IM forever
PineappleLumpsToss
Profile Joined July 2010
New Zealand2434 Posts
March 23 2014 02:35 GMT
#9
Weird round for my beloved SKT. Hoping they can get back on track against CJ and sneak into the playoffs.
Orcasgt24
Profile Joined August 2011
Canada3238 Posts
March 23 2014 02:44 GMT
#10
What did CJ and MVP get warnings for?
In Hearthstone we pray to RNGesus. When Yogg-Saron hits the field, RNGod gets to work
KingofdaHipHop
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
United States25602 Posts
March 23 2014 02:47 GMT
#11
On March 23 2014 11:10 Waxangel wrote:
tell us if our logic is bad

I remember reading a few days ago that Prime weren't out of the running, but they are now? Is there an explanation?
Rain | herO | sOs | Dear | Neeb | ByuN | INnoVation | Dream | ForGG | Maru | ByuL | Golden | Solar | Soulkey | Scarlett!!!
crimsonlink
Profile Joined March 2013
United States53 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-23 02:56:16
March 23 2014 02:49 GMT
#12
Prime can't make Playoffs but #5 is better than #8 like the last round. Too bad about the penalty points and the Ace matches going the wrong way for Prime, otherwise they would have made playoffs in 4th at the very least. Losing 0-3 to CJ didn't help either.

Prime winning vs KT would make me very happy. I look forward to Round 3 and how Prime will do in that round.

So IM vs KT should go KT's way with a 3-1 at the very least and Prime should sweep KT with a 3-0/3-1 to take 5th place I believe as IM is left with -4/-5/-6/ vs Prime's -1/-2/-3 if they win.

If CJ wins 3-0, then even SKT1 could fall below Prime lol.

Good news is that Prime cannot fall below Samsung outside or 2 extra penalty points or something.
ArTiFaKs
Profile Joined September 2013
United States1229 Posts
March 23 2014 03:30 GMT
#13
Still wondering where Byun and Sora have been, maybe we will see Sora pop up in the playoffs. Gogogo CJ !!!

Also, poor state having to play Zest that is now Classic and Zest he has had to play lol. Good luck!
There are things known, and things unknown, and in-between are the doors.
Holdenintherye
Profile Joined December 2012
Canada1441 Posts
March 23 2014 03:53 GMT
#14
So what were these warnings for? o.O
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-23 04:08:37
March 23 2014 04:08 GMT
#15
On March 23 2014 11:47 KingofdaHipHop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2014 11:10 Waxangel wrote:
tell us if our logic is bad

I remember reading a few days ago that Prime weren't out of the running, but they are now? Is there an explanation?

Apparently they have too many warnings which penalize you in points to make it into the playoffs
On March 23 2014 12:53 Holdenintherye wrote:
So what were these warnings for? o.O

well I know 1 was for Marineking using the Korean gg instead of actual gg. You also get warnings for stuff like being late, watching replays between matches, and some other things I believe.
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
GolemMadness
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Canada11044 Posts
March 23 2014 04:17 GMT
#16
KT to win round 2 as well. :D
http://na.op.gg/summoner/userName=FLABREZU
bo1b
Profile Blog Joined August 2012
Australia12814 Posts
March 23 2014 04:21 GMT
#17
On March 23 2014 13:17 GolemMadness wrote:
KT to win round 2 as well. :D

lol
Emerson_H
Profile Joined March 2014
United States460 Posts
March 23 2014 06:11 GMT
#18
GoGo MVP!

Poor State, looking forward to see him play but he'll probably get crushed again. Zest too strong T_T
izmatic
Profile Joined November 2012
United States104 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-23 07:46:34
March 23 2014 07:46 GMT
#19
"In a cuddly coincidence, (Z)DongRaeGu is playing both Liquid`Bunny and CJ_Bunny in the span of 2 days."

This made me laugh way more than it probably should have



two wrongs dont make a right, and three rights make a left
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
March 23 2014 08:21 GMT
#20
Ouch, #7 -
+ Show Spoiler [Opterown - I believe!] +
[image loading]
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