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Fantasy GSTL Team Discussion - Page 108

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Prev 1 106 107 108 109 110 151 Next
Teael
Profile Joined February 2011
United States724 Posts
July 21 2011 15:12 GMT
#2141
Traded for HuK like 2 nights ago... Had feeling he'd get played...
Glad I as right
Mangix
Profile Joined June 2011
United States115 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-21 15:33:59
July 21 2011 15:22 GMT
#2142
Go Huk, although I wanted more kills from MC. Im happy I had Huk and Nada on my team.

Hope tassadar does well tommorow
Icectar
Profile Joined June 2011
United States99 Posts
July 21 2011 16:07 GMT
#2143
haha yes, BboongBBoong for the win!!!! Knew I should've traded Hero for Huk though lol
"You can always tell someone to go to Hell tomorrow."
mrbamboo
Profile Joined December 2010
United States415 Posts
July 21 2011 18:06 GMT
#2144
Looks like godemperor will be tied first with me for now. He's got just Bomber and I got Tassadar + Sage + Jjakji + Happy + Younghwa for tonight

WHO SHALL PREVAIL? OH GOD IM SO SCARED BOMBER PLZ DONT KILL EVERYONE.
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-21 18:09:32
July 21 2011 18:07 GMT
#2145
I canceled my lyn -> mkp antiteam trade in the last minute because of you. I hate you, mrbamboo.

+ Show Spoiler +
Not really, I don't really hate you, but you're a lucky son of a gun
Thank God and gunrun.
godemperor
Profile Joined October 2010
Belgium2043 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-21 18:14:09
July 21 2011 18:12 GMT
#2146
On July 22 2011 03:06 mrbamboo wrote:
Looks like godemperor will be tied first with me for now. He's got just Bomber and I got Tassadar + Sage + Jjakji + Happy + Younghwa for tonight

WHO SHALL PREVAIL? OH GOD IM SO SCARED BOMBER PLZ DONT KILL EVERYONE.

Im not feeling too confident, I got traded in Puma last week, points earned so far 1. (at least his trade value is still high) Also Im stuck with Hero and J whos only job will be to give me 2 points when ever oGs wins. Bomber and BBprime fighting!!!
Also it seems we are both stuck with Fou, u gunna chance it with F united? Hopefully Primes value falls.
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-21 19:27:54
July 21 2011 18:57 GMT
#2147
Preliminary look at the the team tradevalues leads me to think that fOu -> F.United will pay dividend around week 6. Let me edit in the numbers once I have them (about 10minutes).

TradeValue = ( GamesLeft * Salary / 5 + 5/9 * Score ) * GamesLeft

[image loading]
  • Week 5
    • Current TradeValue - 9.87
    • Score - 6
    • Salary - 4
    • GamesLeft - 2. ZeNEX (6), HoSeo (8)

  • Sanity Check: TradeValue = ( 2 * 4 /5 + 5/9 * 6 ) * 2 = 9.86666667
  • TradeValue possibilities after vs ZeNEX, week 6
    • 4-0: 8.58
    • 4-1: 7.47
    • 4-2: 6.36
    • 4-3: 5.23
      ----F.United w5 tradevalue----
    • 3-4: 4.69
    • 2-4: 4.13
    • 1-4: 3.58
    • 0-4: 3.02


Based on the above data, a safe play will be picking up F.United now. The power play is to wait post-week 6, and as long as fOu wins against ZeNEX and F.United doesn't score too many points against TSL that week, it will pay off big time.
Thank God and gunrun.
mrbamboo
Profile Joined December 2010
United States415 Posts
July 21 2011 20:33 GMT
#2148
On July 22 2011 03:07 Primadog wrote:
I canceled my lyn -> mkp antiteam trade in the last minute because of you. I hate you, mrbamboo.

+ Show Spoiler +
Not really, I don't really hate you, but you're a lucky son of a gun


That's not a big deal. F.United might not win that many matches and even with MKP slump do you really think Lyn will win more games than MKP? or F.United will win more matches than Prime will? If anything I saved you a point in trade tax .

Imagine how you'd feel if MKP didn't do that stupid build and won? He'd gotten FOUR points + the point you lost trade taxing. Or if Prime coach sent out Polt instead and Prime won, you'd lost a point + trade tax.

I can't predict the future, I can only make reasonable calculated risks. I stand by my choice on that one.

I made the maka -> PuMa anti trade last night. I thought prime had a real shot at winning, considering it was 4-3 and how close that Check vs HuK game was and how it could've been polt instead of mkp acing, I'd say it was fairly reasonable. If they are using check they are might use maka next time too, who knows. PuMa is now guarranteed no play and also makes TSL weaker so they'll win less rounds. I think that's gonna work out in the long run despite the trade tax loss to do it. I say that and watch PuMa go I'm sorry I go back to TSL or ringers for F.United or something and totally bite me in the ass some how. ~_~

With regard to the fOu -> F. United trade. I really don't know man. Since you can actually LOSE points on the team score where as worst case you get 0 points on a player main team. I think it'll be a good 4-3 series in fOu vs ZeNex. fOu has no chance in hell vs Startale though. On the other hand, I feel like F.United is gonna lose a lot 4-2 and 4-3 since Moon and Lyn are practicing wc3 for WCG, making them even weaker. It is really about minimizing losses and F.United just feel likes they got more opportunities to go 4-1 and lose points. I'm gonna wait till after week 5 since I feel good about fOu vs Zenex. Risk is not being able to get FUnited. Honestly unless you have IM or Startale all the other teams are really hard to call, so the risk/award is not really worth it, I'm ok with just trying to minimize losses on the team picks.


godemperor
Profile Joined October 2010
Belgium2043 Posts
July 21 2011 20:38 GMT
#2149
Trading NSH for Fou is probably the biggest mistake i made so far, instead of trading for MVP, oGs or ST. Easy 6 points in the short term, long term not looking too hot.
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-22 03:09:32
July 21 2011 21:04 GMT
#2150
I disagree with your assessment on the "fOu for F.United" trade, especially regarding its upside.

Let's suppose the Power Play I mentioned is possible (not a certainty), in essence, you'll be exchanging fOu's final set points against HoSeo for 4 brand new series of play. Mathematically, F.United can earnt anywhere from 32pts (4-0 all sets) to -8pt (0-4 all sets). Realistically, the actual value will be closer the middle of that range. As long as F.United wins at least one set, this trade will be point-positive.

My assessment is not completely thereotical, let's just check the current Team Scores:

# Team Pts Adj. TrVal O B S
V New Star HoSeo 12 23.60 90 54 33
J Team SCV Life 10 22.07 231 10 24
V ZeNEX 9 12.40 77 28 14
V IM 6 24.40 753 2
V StarTale 6 20.80 475 17
V For Our Utopia 6 9.87 150 65 3
J MVP 4 13.87 1328 42 25
J Old GenerationS 1 18.22 1666 11 24
J SlayerS 1 12.47 3440 28 132
J Prime -1 10.58 675 57 29
V FXOpen ESPORTS -4 -2.22 766 8


Each team has played 2-3 series thus far, and only 2 of the 11 teams have negative scores. Notice how even teams without significant upside like ZeNEX has faired quite well, points-wise. This is an indicator that, like players, as long as there are series outstandings, points are more likely than not.

A complete disclosure, I will not be making this play myself, since my team is IM and I am unwilling to sacrifice so much TradeValue to make the switch, at least not until week 7.
Thank God and gunrun.
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
July 21 2011 21:15 GMT
#2151
On July 22 2011 06:04 Primadog wrote:
I disagree with your assessment on the "fOu for F.United" trade, especially regarding its upside.

Let's suppose the Power Play I mentioned is possible (not a certainty), in essence, you'll be exchanging fOu's final set points against HoSeo for 4 brand new series of play. Mathematically, F.United can earnt anywhere from 32pts (4-0 all sets) to -8pt (0-4 all sets). Realistically, the actual value will be closer the middle of that range. As long as F.United wins at least one set, this trade will be point positive.

My assessment is not completely thereotical, let's just check the current Team Scores:

# Team Pts Adj. TrVal O B S
1 New Star HoSeo 12 23.60 90 54 33
2 Team SCV Life 10 22.07 231 10 24
3 ZeNEX 9 12.40 77 28 14
4 IM 6 24.40 753 2
4 StarTale 6 20.80 475 17
4 For Our Utopia 6 9.87 150 65 3
7 MVP 4 13.87 1328 42 25
8 Old GenerationS 1 18.22 1666 11 24
8 SlayerS 1 12.47 3440 28 132
10 F.United 0 5.00 495 6 6
11 Prime -1 10.58 675 57 29
12 FXOpen ESPORTS -4 -2.22 766 8


Each team has played 2-3 series thus far, and only 2 of the 12 teams have negative scores. Notice how even teams without significant upside like ZeNEX has faired quite well, points-wise. This is an indicator that, like players, as long as there are series outstandings, points are more likely than not.

A complete disclosure, I will not be making this play myself, since my team is IM and I am unwilling to sacrifice so much TradeValue to make the switch, at least not until week 7.


Your math is, as always, correct. Where your math fails for me personally is the fact it doesnt account for the actual players on these teams. F.United could forseeably be all killed every week because their line up is not that deep and they are forgieners that haven't been in korea or they are moon and lyn playing wc3 for WCG... I understand that they could potentially be amazing but my head tells me they will fair no better than FXO
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-21 21:24:30
July 21 2011 21:20 GMT
#2152
Line-up arguments are always subjective, so I try to seperate my numerical arguments from it whenever possible.

(T)Fenix, (T)ThorZaIN, and (P)NaNiwa are the all-star Foreigners that will surprise everyone in the GSTL. They outclass vast majority of foreigner players (including every FXO player) in every tournament they attended, and has proven themselves in tournaments such as the NASL, Dreamhack, and TSL that they can also play head-to-shoulder with the Koreans.

The only weakness I see is F.United management may squander these assets and favor their native sons, but overall I can't see F.United going worse than 2-3 in the league.
Thank God and gunrun.
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
July 21 2011 21:27 GMT
#2153
On July 22 2011 06:20 Primadog wrote:
Line-up arguments are always subjective, so I try to seperate my numerical arguments from it whenever possible.

(T)Fenix, (T)ThorZaIN, and (P)NaNiwa are the all-star Foreigners that will surprise everyone in the GSTL. They have demonstrated they outclass a vast majority of foreigner players (including every FXO player) in every tournament they attended, and has proven themselves in tournaments such as the NASL, Dreamhack, and TSL that they can also play head-to-shoulder with the Koreans.

The only weakness I see is F.United management may squander these assets and favor their native sons, but overall I can't see F.United going worse than 2-3 in the league.


Prima I would never argue statistics with you, but I think that Nani, Fenix and Thorzain are all being terribly overrated. The Koreans change and refine strategies constantly and will be sending out lesser known players against a team like F.United. This means F.United will not have as much of an opportunity to scout their opponents strategies something I believe is the core strengths of these players (especially Thorzain). I doubt they get a win in the GSTL.
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-21 22:04:34
July 21 2011 21:28 GMT
#2154
Those are fighting words, I'll wager you 10,000 E-sports dollars for it (thank you Diggity).

PS: Does anyone know a escrow service that accept E-sports dollars?
Thank God and gunrun.
mrbamboo
Profile Joined December 2010
United States415 Posts
July 21 2011 21:56 GMT
#2155
I think Naniwa and Thorzain are good enough to take 50 or even 60% of the games against any non-ace player, and certainly can take out almost any starter. But they don't have that all kill/reverse-kill power and it's hard to 2 man carry F. United into victory. I foresee a lot of 4-2 and 4-3 losses. Which aren't bad since 4-2 breaks even and you make points if they go 4-3. The good thing is that I forgot was that team trades have no trade tax, so maybe it's not that bad of an idea. Not to mention the strongest teams IM and ST are in the other division so I can see F.United taking it to at least 2-4 against all their opponents, which makes this trade a lot better.

Getting Naniwa or Thorzain as players will pay off more though IMO, if trade slots is your limiting factor and you have the right players to trade with. I'm already regretting not doing the Sage or Jjakji -> Naniwa trade this week, I watched Jjakji win the iCCup monthly and Sage take 4th and made the impulse decision to keep them and hoping they beat Bomber tonight. If NsHS wins tonight though it'd be totally worth it.
the-gandhi
Profile Joined September 2010
35 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-22 08:03:20
July 22 2011 08:02 GMT
#2156
what is going on with MMA btw? he has not played a single match yet

and second: i have polt in my lineup but he is still at 0 as well. is that because he is playing as optimus now?
Tommylew
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Wales2717 Posts
July 22 2011 08:34 GMT
#2157
cant believie it I have only 6 points, I took out HuK for the week and stupidly put Hero in.... What a fool, oh well always next season.......... lol

Cant believe how bad im doing but at least im not in minus points like I was for first 3 weeks of the fantasy league lol
Live and Let Die!
mrbamboo
Profile Joined December 2010
United States415 Posts
July 22 2011 08:53 GMT
#2158
God I hope happy/younghwa plays. And nshs wins!
Gh86
Profile Joined June 2011
646 Posts
July 22 2011 08:58 GMT
#2159
Come on qxc, bring out Younghwa, and go Tassadar..
psi_blade
Profile Joined June 2011
Singapore23 Posts
July 22 2011 08:58 GMT
#2160
On July 22 2011 17:02 the-gandhi wrote:
what is going on with MMA btw? he has not played a single match yet

and second: i have polt in my lineup but he is still at 0 as well. is that because he is playing as optimus now?


MMA played once and lost to DRG. Polt played once as well and lost to PuMa.
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