NBA 2013-14 Season

Real GM Player Comparisons Forum.
There are some looney threads here but more than once in a while you'll find some absolute gems of quality in-depth discussion. Posts by mysticbb, Dr.MJ, drza, and ElGee among others are filled with great critical thinking and insight.

BBS Hoops
This is a Chinese site that I found looking for ESPN Insider articles once. They seem to always have it within a day of it going up. Takes getting used to if you can't read Chinese but just Google the article title and I'm sure you'll get linked here.

WagesofWins & Box Score Geeks
I mentioned these 2 together since one of the guys writes for both sites. Boxscoregeeks.com is actually the revamped thenbageek.com website. It seems some golden content is gone or at the least archived somewhere else. I read both sites in depth for the first time a few weeks ago and they are extremely good at figuring out why players are good and why they aren't. They rely on their Wins Produced formula a lot. I don't but they are mostly correct in why players and teams are good. Read them if you're serious about avoiding the trash on ESPN, Bleacher Report and some of the stuff that pops up on Grantland at times.

Grantland
Zach Lowe offers great insight. Bill Simmons is a popular, funny writer of sports in general. They also have good features throughout the season.

The Basketball Jones
They are moving to NBA TV and got renamed to TheStarters. They have a huge following and you can view some of their past work here.

Basketball Reference
The best basketball website on the internet for stats past and present. They show a lot of in-depth stats that are extremely useful if you're into Sports Betting that will serve as shortcuts. Good place to look up old box scores and seasons.

Hoop Data
Great Website for looking at shot location data. Combined with Bball reference (who now have shot data) you can get a very good picture of what a player is doing on the court.

82 Games
If you're looking for lineup data this place is invaluable. Absolutely important if you seriously want to know how good a team really is.

Clutch Fans
The best Houston Rockets site on the net. In depth info from inside sources occasionally pop up here.

2012-13 Team Stats
Record: 41-40 *missed game vs Indiana due to a disaster
SRS: -0.62 (17th)
ORTG: 103.1(-2.8) (24th)
DRTG: 103.3(-2.6) (7th)

Vegas Over/Under: 27.5 wins

Important players: Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger, Fab Melo, Jeff Green

Summary: This team is going to lose a ton of games. Some would say this is by design. Rondo got injured last year, and it's up for debate if they would even be a playoff team with him healthy. Their young players, especially Bradley, need to develop even more this season.
The Celtics are going to tear everything down if they realize none of these guys are productive players (or at least should). The offense is a mess as they struggle for easy shots. The defense will be garbage. Long season ahead of them but they aren't trying to win.

They are projected for 27.5 wins and that is quite generous. They will definitely miss the playoffs and with Rondo out till who knows when attaining 27 wins is a dream. Their best player is...Jeff Green? Add in a new coach and things will get ugly here fast.

2012-13 Team Stats
Record: 49-33
SRS: +1.25 (12th)
ORTG: 108.2 (+2.3) (8th)
DRTG: 106.2(+.3) (17th)


Vegas Over/Under: 52.5 wins

Important Players: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, Andrei Kirilenko

Summary: This team was one of the oddest teams in the league last year. They fired Avery Johnson and promoted PJ Cerlesimo to Head Coach. He overachieved and got fired after getting beat by a banged up, no Derrick Rose Chicago in the playoffs. This team was in win now mode the day their new Russian billionaire owner showed up. Billy King is their GM and will surely screw them over (again) but right now they are very close to contender status.

Make no mistake that they were a near 50 win last time but didn't have a stellar SRS. Injuries to Williams and Lopez slowed them down. They were also not the best defensive team in the league, being near the middle of the pack. Add in Kevin Garnett, a new coach in Jason Kidd who is one of the best defensive guards in NBA History and things should change. Deron Williams is unfortunately already experiencing ankle issues. He has to get back to his Utah level of "star" play for them to even have a shot at dethroning Miami in the playoffs.

That is of course the issue. Getting there in one piece. Luckily they have a great bench with Kirilenko and Reggie Evans being enough to get them through the terrible teams during the year. Andray Blatche looks like a different player and Shaun Livingston has once again looked productive in limited time. Very hard to peg where they will end up but 52.5 wins is easily attainable assuming no one gets injured in their top 6. They are one of the top 4 teams in the East and their SRS at the end of the season might not reflect the true strength of the team. If Garnett plays low minutes and is effective beware of them in the playoffs. Might not be enough to beat the top teams but could be trouble.

2012-13 Team Stats
Record: 54-28
SRS: +3.73 (7th)
ORTG: 111.1(+5.2) 3rd
DRTG: 106.3 (+.4) 18th


Vegas Over/Under: 49.5

Important Players: Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, Iman Shumpert

Summary: It's no secret I'm not a fan of the Knicks. They generally build teams like a casual uninformed fan of the game who looks at points per game to discern who is good or not. After overachieving in the regular season last year with Melo's most efficient offensive year since 2009 they showed us they have learned nothing. They went out and signed one of the worst players in the NBA over the last 7 years in Andrea Bargnani. They also gave up draft picks and a productive 3 pt shooter (Novak) to do it. Their success (and Melo's) was tied to the dual PG lineups that destroyed defenses for most of the year by launching an ungodly amount of 3 pointers - and hitting.

Consider the window closed. Tyson Chandler is their best player that had a tough time closing up the defensive mistakes last year which resulted in a below average rating. Losing Jason Kidd is huge. Once they got to Indiana in the semis he showed his age, Melo got destroyed by Paul George and that was that. This team winning 50 games would take a miracle as they look to be worse on offense and I don't even want to imagine the defense. Their best bet is Shumpert develops into something close to an All-Star to have a legit shot at contention. Mybe Felton + Prigioni will recreate some of the magic. It will be difficult, damn near improbable but there is a glimmer of hope. Just know the future of this franchise looks as horrible as always. Placing a premium on points without respect to how they are scored sums up the Knicks and Melo supporters. A perfect pairing for where this team is going to wind up.

Lots of people have them as the 5th seed in the East below the potential juggernaut quartet of Miami, Chicago, Indiana, and Brooklyn. Washington losing Okafor, Atlanta losing Williams and Detroit having Joe Dumars are keeping them afloat right now. Next season they need to get some better players or it really is over.

2012-13 Team Stats
Record: 34-48
SRS: -3.51 (24th)
ORTG: 102.0 (-3.9) 26th
DRTG: 105.7 (-.2) 18th


Vegas Over/Under: 16.5

Important Players: Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Michael Carter-Williams, Spencer Hawes, Nerlens Noel

Summary: Everyone's favorite pick to tank the season for what is allegedly a loaded, historic 2014 draft class. After losing one of the best players in the league due to trading Andre Iguodala, they got Andrew Bynum back who didn't suit up a single game due to knee problems. He now resides in Cleveland. Of course this didn't stop them from trading a young productive guard in Jrue Holiday for a rookie bigman in Nerlens Noel who may miss the season due to knee problems. Evan Turner is an amazing rebounder and good playmaker who hasn't lived up to being a #2 pick. His defense is meh and his scoring efficiency is below average. Their draft pick in MCW is already looking like a can't score efficiently Point Guard with a turnover problem. This team will be horrible. They have a really good Forward in Thaddeus Young. Spencer Hawes may put up numbers because he has a ton of minutes with no one to play behind him and a contract year.

This team will always be at the mercy of its' front office. Trading Iggy, and not realizing they had a very, very good young player in Vucevic (now looking like a stud in Orlando), Bynum's one year vacation, and now a roster loaded with young lottery picks while trying to tank for another is just a few of their slip ups. If they don't win the top ping pong ball in this year's draft expect a firestorm. If Jason Richardson comes back (yea he's still on the team) they may win some games and upset fans of tanking. Having a rookie head coach makes for the perfect scapegoat though.

2012-13 Team Stats
Record: 34-48
SRS: -1.96 (20th)
ORTG: 105.9 (0.0) T-13/14th
DRTG: 107.5 (+1.6) 22nd


Vegas Over/Under: 36.5

Important Players: Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson, Rudy Gay, Demar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry


Summary: Welcome to one of the (many) examples of a poster child for bad business. Years of letting Bryan Colangelo spend money led to a trash team with assets that got lost to better teams that could use the value. Calderon, a very good player is gone. Bosh left and never looked back. Kyle Lowry showed up and hasn't been the same player for a while and they have 2 wing players in Gay and DeRozan who aren't worth their contracts. DeRozan is young and Gay just had corrective surgery on his eyes (which could explain the massive drop in scoring efficiency over the years). That still may not be enough to turn them into a juggernaut because they don't do enough things at an above average level.

Enter Masai Ujiri, the guy who was partially responsible for constructing a juggernaut in Denver last year that got derailed by injuries, coaching and an impatient front office. He immediately won the heart of the fans by trading one of the worst players in the league - Andrea Bargnani - to the Knicks (who else?) and got a draft pick out of it. He is just beginning his quest to shape the roster and has a very good front court in Johnson and a potential budding monster in Valanciunas that looks like Brook Lopez with defense for now. They have some valuable role players in Fields and Novak with a sophmore Terrance Ross even though they lost Ed Davis last year to Memphis. This team will win games just being in the Atlantic Division with the tank commanders in Boston and Philly. They should win over 36.5 games and fight for a playoff spot. Their starting 5 is still young enough to show something and their offense is bound to improve. Head coach Dwayne Casey has a tougher job on the other end.

Weird statistic - this team was above average in 3pt attempt rate AND 3pt %. They were far below average (ranked 22nd) in total 3pt attempts though. The coach better fix that. If your team is good at something you should find a way to do it - a lot.

2012-13 Team Stats
Record: 45-37
SRS: -0.01 (14th)
ORTG: 103.5 (-2.4) 23rd
DRTG: 103.2 (-2.7) 6th


Vegas Over/Under: 56.5

Important Players: Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler

Summary: 75, 66, 65, 60, 45, 0 - that's the # of games played by Deng, Noah, Gibson, Hinrich, Hamilton and Rose. They still ranked 6th! in the league on defense, played Nate Robinson 82 games and had a 2nd round exit. They beat Brooklyn despite Luol Deng almost dying and requiring a spinal tap and Noah damn near broken. They were a below average team via SRS and made it to the semifinals.

Holy hell they are going to beat the crap out of a ton of teams and look downright dominant doing so. Derrick Rose is back and sporting an improved 3pt shot, and the rookie Jimmy Butler has looked good for months now. That Vegas O/U is no joke and if it wasn't for Noah getting a groin injury already I'd say they were good enough to pass it. The problem with this team is always in the playoffs where injuries and poor offense get them buried. Make no mistake if Derrick Rose takes a leap (to a true MVP level) this team is going to be just as deadly as the Pacers to Miami's title hopes. Their bench isn't as good as 2 years ago which puts a dent on their chances because of regular season wear and tear but it might not matter too much. Their top 7 in Noah, Deng, Boozer, Rose, Butler, Hinrich, Gibson is good enough to bang with Miami, Indiana and Brooklyn. They also tend to beat Western Conference teams down to a pulp so arguably the only thing stopping them is their own neighbors. If Noah is 100% in April the top 4 of the East will be a bar fight. One issue holding this team back in the future is a front office that seems to be getting shy with spending money...like they do every year. They still have Rose, Butler on a rookie deal and Noah. One more All-Star level big man on this team and it may be lights out.