Based on what? He looked clueless against Inno in the super tournament, which was pre terran buffs. And his ZvZ has been shaky recently while soO is still king of the matchup.

Boggyb

2855 Posts

May 23 2018 13:32 GMT

#148

On May 23 2018 22:30 Fango wrote:

Show nested quote +

Based on what? He looked clueless against Inno in the super tournament, which was pre terran buffs. And his ZvZ has been shaky recently while soO is still king of the matchup.

Recent performances including beating INnoVation in China.

Fango

United Kingdom8987 Posts

May 23 2018 13:41 GMT

#149

On May 23 2018 22:32 Boggyb wrote:

Show nested quote +

Recent performances including beating INnoVation in China.

I didnt watch the Hangzhou event but looking at the results it's still not great. Beating Inno in a third place match at a minor lan event doesn't carry much weight.

As far as I'm concerned Rogue's looked bad (for him) at every offline event this year baring Katowice, where he was absolutely a top player. I'm not really sure what to make of that, but if there's only a 1/4 chance he shows up then I'm betting on Inno or soO to take it.

Edit: ok it's worth noting that Inno been trash is literally every offline event this year as well. But he at least has a good patch going for him, which is where he usually shines

Boggyb

2855 Posts

May 23 2018 13:49 GMT

#150

On May 23 2018 22:41 Fango wrote:

Show nested quote +

Was Rogue spanking Stats in his GSL ro32 group a dream of mine?

pvsnp

7676 Posts

May 23 2018 20:25 GMT

#151

By my estimation:

soO > Dear
Rogue > Dear
Inno > Dear
soO = Rogue
Inno = Rogue
Inno > soO

While I would say that Rogue is probably the strongest overall player in Group B, the way the group is set up is such that Inno actually has the best chance of advancing. Whereas Rogue has to play ZvZ against soO and ZvT against Inno–their strongest MUs respectively–Inno gets to play his strongest MU twice and has a relatively weak Protoss (Dear) in his weakest MU. Rogue on the other hand is strongest in ZvP, but he'll need to beat at least one of soO or Inno to advance.

Also, I wrote this in the group nomination thread:

Call me a skeptic, but I'm really not buying all the Rogue hype. Some people (cough cough Artosis) are way overestimating the guy considering his form since Katowice, the balance changes since, and the rest of his group. His last big achievement was back in March, which, to be fair, is more recent than any of his groupmates' trophies. That being said, neither ZvP nor ZvT is the same as it was back then, nor has Rogue shown any particular superiority since.

While losing to Dear is probably still off the cards, losing to either soO, or INnoVation, or both would hardly be an upset. Outside of a finals, I would never bet against soO in ZvZ, and Rogue fell 1-3 to Inno in the Super Tournament. While he did narrowly defeat Inno 3-2 at Hangzhou (after losing to Neeb) his reverse-sweep there mirrors the reverse-sweep he achieved against Maru at Katowice–that is, heavily dependent on roach-based allins. I'd hesitate to expect similar results again, especially with the recent Marauder buff. The guys on the Pylon Show might guarantee that he advances, but personally I'd question Rogue being much better than 50% against soO/Inno.

Most of that might sound patently ridiculous at first glance (it did to me while I was typing it) but the thing is, while soO and Inno have both shown big weaknesses as of late, neither of them are weak against Zerg. soO has been struggling in ZvT whereas Inno has been struggling in TvP. I'd agree that Rogue is probably a stronger overall player than soO and/or Inno, but that means jack shit when they square off head-to-head.

Add all that to the fact that Rogue has historically underperformed in GSL and I would not at all be surprised if he gets knocked out in the Ro16.

TL;DR: Rogue hasn't been super impressive as of late and it's anyone's guess as to whether he makes it out of Group B.

mierin

United States4943 Posts

May 24 2018 00:00 GMT

#152

TvZ is a joke matchup (at the very highest levels) right now, but at least with the other players we saw a lot of cool things.

juicyjames

United States3815 Posts

May 24 2018 00:30 GMT

#153

Any recommended matches?

Boggyb

2855 Posts

May 24 2018 01:23 GMT

#154

On May 24 2018 09:30 juicyjames wrote:
Any recommended matches?

Maru Patience game 3 on Backwater is decent.

architecture

United States643 Posts

May 24 2018 04:12 GMT

#155

Is mass viking really the answer to late game tempests? They seem super hard to use, if they spread out they don't kill anything, and if they clump that's worse.

Is it possible to use Thor? Not sure if that just gets cleared out by the ground army super fast.

Or maybe just make a fuckload of barely loaded bunkers on the ground to try to mess up targeting and change army EHP. It's not like bio actually does anything until the tech units are cleared out.

Or maybe the answer is just to run around and try to split the army apart like in TvZ, and then hope you get a lucky jump onto either templar or tempests split.