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Nebuchad
Switzerland12389 Posts
On August 03 2017 23:37 Blargh wrote: It's too bad our only foreigner in Ro8 will be from 100% bracket luck in getting a foreigner opponent -_- It was rather "unlucky" to get only one KR vs KR match out of a half random draw in the first place. | ||
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Boggyb
2855 Posts
I think Nerchio advancing is a decent bet. Dark doesn't have a top-tier ZvZ result in the last 3 months. | ||
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Blargh
United States2103 Posts
On August 03 2017 23:43 Nebuchad wrote: It was rather "unlucky" to get only one KR vs KR match out of a half random draw in the first place. Well, I mean more specifically for Major/Kela. But yeah, I'm not sure if I like the direct bracket format when doing these foreign/KR tournies. I believe the double elim. group format is much better for first round. Still enjoyable to watch, but if Major ends up the only one, then we're all just going to sigh ): | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On August 03 2017 23:47 Boggyb wrote: I think Nerchio advancing is a decent bet. Dark doesn't have a top-tier ZvZ result in the last 3 months. And Nerchio does? | ||
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Diabolique
Czech Republic5118 Posts
On August 03 2017 23:47 Boggyb wrote: I think Nerchio advancing is a decent bet. Dark doesn't have a top-tier ZvZ result in the last 3 months. I am actually not sure that Nerchio does (have a top tier ZvZ in the last 3 months). Didn't he recently lose to all of Elazer, Snute, Scarlett and Serral? | ||
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bulya
Israel386 Posts
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Diabolique
Czech Republic5118 Posts
On August 04 2017 00:00 bulya wrote: When did Nerchio played Scarlett since Nation Wars, which was almost half a year ago? For me, half a year ago is like yesterday. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12389 Posts
On August 03 2017 23:48 Blargh wrote: Well, I mean more specifically for Major/Kela. But yeah, I'm not sure if I like the direct bracket format when doing these foreign/KR tournies. I believe the double elim. group format is much better for first round. Still enjoyable to watch, but if Major ends up the only one, then we're all just going to sigh ): It's hard to give an estimation of course but with four matches where the korean has the advantage to the tune of I guess 60-70% it's not that unlikely that a foreigner would win one, given that it's Bo5 I don't think we have 50% chance but we're probably something like 40% to get one through. | ||
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Diabolique
Czech Republic5118 Posts
On August 04 2017 00:03 Nebuchad wrote: It's hard to give an estimation of course but with four matches where the korean has the advantage to the tune of I guess 60-70% it's not that unlikely that a foreigner would win one, given that it's Bo5 I don't think we have 50% chance but we're probably something like 40% to get one through. Scarlett, the foreign hope, will dismantle TY. | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On August 04 2017 00:03 Nebuchad wrote: It's hard to give an estimation of course but with four matches where the korean has the advantage to the tune of I guess 60-70% it's not that unlikely that a foreigner would win one, given that it's Bo5 I don't think we have 50% chance but we're probably something like 40% to get one through. If you think the bo5 is "only" in favor of like 60-70% for the koreans then getting in at least one foreigner should be pretty high tbh | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12389 Posts
On August 04 2017 00:07 The_Red_Viper wrote: If you think the bo5 is "only" in favor of like 60-70% for the koreans then getting in at least one foreigner should be pretty high tbh Yeah I meant for a single map, if it's 35% at Bo5 you have 4 shots at 35% and you'd be unlucky to not win one. You need 25% at Bo5 level to be likely to win 1 out of 4 (obviously). Tbh I think some of the match-ups are above that, around 30% at Bo5 level and some below at around 20%, should probably round up at around 25 and expect a cointoss. | ||
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Boggyb
2855 Posts
On August 03 2017 23:57 Diabolique wrote: I am actually not sure that Nerchio does (have a top tier ZvZ in the last 3 months). Didn't he recently lose to all of Elazer, Snute, Scarlett and Serral? Last 3 months of results vs. top non-Korean Zerg: 1-3 Elazer 4-1 Snute 0-3 Serral 2-1 Snute 0-2 Snute 0-2 Serral 2-1 TRUE 3-1 Elazer 2-1 Elazer 1-2 Elazer 0-2 Elazer That's a mixed bag, but is probably comparably better than Dark though Dark was playing Koreans and Nerchio was not. | ||
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juicyjames
United States3815 Posts
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
On August 04 2017 03:22 juicyjames wrote: Any recommended matches? ByuN vs Serral was excellent, all five matches (well maybe not the fifth). Others were all very onesided. | ||
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Topin
Peru10103 Posts
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JokerAi
Germany142 Posts
On August 03 2017 20:25 207aicila wrote: You think he's the only one forced to play his worst matchup? Better yet, you think progamers should have the luxury not to play their worst matchup? *looks at nationality* Nevermind... carry on. User was warned for this post I think if they make a global like koreans vs world the have to make it fair for all. Now it is a 100% lose for the most player Scarlett, ShoWTimE, iAsonu, Kelazhur, Nerchio. You like watching games who you know 100% who wins? Then you can watch bonze vs diamond is the same. you dont need a tournament who all know the first round is time waste. All palyer will be destroyed in this round. | ||
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Durnuu
13322 Posts
On August 04 2017 19:27 JokerAi wrote: I think if they make a global like koreans vs world the have to make it fair for all. Now it is a 100% lose for the most player Scarlett, ShoWTimE, iAsonu, Kelazhur, Nerchio. You like watching games who you know 100% who wins? Then you can watch bonze vs diamond is the same. you dont need a tournament who all know the first round is time waste. All palyer will be destroyed in this round. It was fair for all. Invited players were seeded and their opponents (the voted-in players) were randomly drawn against them. | ||
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JokerAi
Germany142 Posts
Example Worst matchup / best matchup Scarlett z vs t / z vs z ShoWTimE p vs z / p vs t Nerchio z vs z / z vs t Serral z vs t / z vs z Look at the stats. Scarlett vs ty is instand lose because scarletts worst matchup and ty is best matchup. ty have 64% winrate. Is like let the best fight vs the worst. on this lvl is bronze vs GM. ShoWTimE stays for the same problem. Serral doing realy well but is his worst matchup to. Nerchio is even with dark. Kelazhur i think never won a single best of vs SpeCial in brazil (american cups). You can handle some of this games if you switching some players serral vs sos. showtime vs byun. Scarlett vs dark. Nerchio vs Stats. i dont understand anyway why Stats play vs herO? | ||
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JokerAi
Germany142 Posts
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