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[WCS] Playoffs Day 2 - Season 3 2015 - Page 241

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
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Senseless bashing of foreigners and WCS game quality is not permitted today. Criticism is fine, but let's not repeat yesterday's mess. Games can be enjoyed without the presence of constant vitriol.
14:18 GMT (+00:00) Edit: This is your friendly reminder that whining about Protoss is an old and tired thing. Don't.
-Zealously
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
September 13 2015 20:11 GMT
#4801
On September 14 2015 05:10 Yorkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:08 Yorkie wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:06 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On September 14 2015 04:56 [PkF] Wire wrote:
let's do the odds for every opponent :
vs herO : 5-95
vs PartinG : 10-90
vs Life : 10-90
vs Maru : 0-100
vs Hydra : 55-45
vs Rain : 20-80
vs Classic : 0-100
vs Polt : 45-55
vs Dream : 30-70 ? (which Dream is going to show up at Blizzcon ?)
vs Zest : 0-100
vs Rogue : 10-90
vs Byul : 1-99
vs FanTaSy : 30-70
vs INno : 10-90
vs Dear : 35-65
vs Gumiho : 45-55
vs Hyun : 35-65
vs sOs : 10-90


Aligulac says Lilbow wins a bo5:

vs herO : 44.08%
vs PartinG : 54.13%
vs Life : 51.58%
vs Maru : 32.21%
vs Hydra : 47.79%
vs Rain : 40.72%
vs Classic : 30.50%
vs Polt : 34.75%
vs Dream : 30.86%
vs Zest : 17.91%
vs Rogue : 63.59%
vs Byul : 58.93%
vs FanTaSy : 47.72%
vs INno : 17.31%
vs Dear : 47.34%
vs Gumiho : 41.80%
vs Hyun : 56.76%
vs sOs : 37.10%

So only Zest and Innovation are really out of his league

Aligulac always over-inflates the ratings of players who play weaker opponents

I mean roughly 60% chance to win vs Rogue or Byul? over 50 for Parting and Life? higher chance to beat Byul than hydra? You can see why these values are no good

Aligulac's biggest flaw is when comparing players from different regions.
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46271 Posts
September 13 2015 20:11 GMT
#4802
On September 14 2015 05:11 [PkF] Wire wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:11 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:01 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Congrats to Lilbow Best foreigner atm?

not even close


Who's better?

worded myself badly : no one comes even close


Ah gotcha
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
shid0x
Profile Joined July 2012
Korea (South)5014 Posts
September 13 2015 20:11 GMT
#4803
On September 14 2015 05:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:01 shid0x wrote:
Apparently Millenium is sending lilbow to korea to train until blizzcon.

seriously ? Source ?



https://twitter.com/DrAeromi/status/643147259744518145?lang=fr

I know Aeromi is meh but he's quite close to millenium.
RIP MKP
Yorkie
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
United States12612 Posts
September 13 2015 20:12 GMT
#4804
On September 14 2015 05:11 [PkF] Wire wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:10 Yorkie wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:08 Yorkie wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:06 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On September 14 2015 04:56 [PkF] Wire wrote:
let's do the odds for every opponent :
vs herO : 5-95
vs PartinG : 10-90
vs Life : 10-90
vs Maru : 0-100
vs Hydra : 55-45
vs Rain : 20-80
vs Classic : 0-100
vs Polt : 45-55
vs Dream : 30-70 ? (which Dream is going to show up at Blizzcon ?)
vs Zest : 0-100
vs Rogue : 10-90
vs Byul : 1-99
vs FanTaSy : 30-70
vs INno : 10-90
vs Dear : 35-65
vs Gumiho : 45-55
vs Hyun : 35-65
vs sOs : 10-90


Aligulac says Lilbow wins a bo5:

vs herO : 44.08%
vs PartinG : 54.13%
vs Life : 51.58%
vs Maru : 32.21%
vs Hydra : 47.79%
vs Rain : 40.72%
vs Classic : 30.50%
vs Polt : 34.75%
vs Dream : 30.86%
vs Zest : 17.91%
vs Rogue : 63.59%
vs Byul : 58.93%
vs FanTaSy : 47.72%
vs INno : 17.31%
vs Dear : 47.34%
vs Gumiho : 41.80%
vs Hyun : 56.76%
vs sOs : 37.10%

So only Zest and Innovation are really out of his league

Aligulac always over-inflates the ratings of players who play weaker opponents

I mean roughly 60% chance to win vs Rogue or Byul? over 50 for Parting and Life? higher chance to beat Byul than hydra? You can see why these values are no good

yeah aligulac is ridiculous when it comes to comparing people that don't play the same opponents. Remember Kingkong, ForGG, Byun atm...

Aligulac is an excellent tool for what it is but you simply can't use it for comparisons like this for obvious reasons that are no fault of the creators of aligulac
Hwang Kang Hooooooooooo. Follow mah boy Shellshock @Shellshock1122
imre
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
France9263 Posts
September 13 2015 20:12 GMT
#4805
On September 14 2015 05:11 shid0x wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:01 shid0x wrote:
Apparently Millenium is sending lilbow to korea to train until blizzcon.

seriously ? Source ?



https://twitter.com/DrAeromi/status/643147259744518145?lang=fr

I know Aeromi is meh but he's quite close to millenium.


I can confirm that it's probably gonna happen.
Zest fanboy.
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
September 13 2015 20:12 GMT
#4806
On September 14 2015 05:11 shid0x wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:01 shid0x wrote:
Apparently Millenium is sending lilbow to korea to train until blizzcon.

seriously ? Source ?



https://twitter.com/DrAeromi/status/643147259744518145?lang=fr

I know Aeromi is meh but he's quite close to millenium.

Did you just call our Schedule God "meh"
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
[PkF] Wire
Profile Joined March 2013
France24239 Posts
September 13 2015 20:12 GMT
#4807
On September 14 2015 05:11 shid0x wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:01 shid0x wrote:
Apparently Millenium is sending lilbow to korea to train until blizzcon.

seriously ? Source ?



https://twitter.com/DrAeromi/status/643147259744518145?lang=fr

I know Aeromi is meh but he's quite close to millenium.

if that's true that's excellent news. I mean he could have gotten decent training partners but training in Korea will really help him add some depth to his playstyle.
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16955 Posts
September 13 2015 20:12 GMT
#4808
On September 14 2015 05:11 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:10 Yorkie wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:08 Yorkie wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:06 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On September 14 2015 04:56 [PkF] Wire wrote:
let's do the odds for every opponent :
vs herO : 5-95
vs PartinG : 10-90
vs Life : 10-90
vs Maru : 0-100
vs Hydra : 55-45
vs Rain : 20-80
vs Classic : 0-100
vs Polt : 45-55
vs Dream : 30-70 ? (which Dream is going to show up at Blizzcon ?)
vs Zest : 0-100
vs Rogue : 10-90
vs Byul : 1-99
vs FanTaSy : 30-70
vs INno : 10-90
vs Dear : 35-65
vs Gumiho : 45-55
vs Hyun : 35-65
vs sOs : 10-90


Aligulac says Lilbow wins a bo5:

vs herO : 44.08%
vs PartinG : 54.13%
vs Life : 51.58%
vs Maru : 32.21%
vs Hydra : 47.79%
vs Rain : 40.72%
vs Classic : 30.50%
vs Polt : 34.75%
vs Dream : 30.86%
vs Zest : 17.91%
vs Rogue : 63.59%
vs Byul : 58.93%
vs FanTaSy : 47.72%
vs INno : 17.31%
vs Dear : 47.34%
vs Gumiho : 41.80%
vs Hyun : 56.76%
vs sOs : 37.10%

So only Zest and Innovation are really out of his league

Aligulac always over-inflates the ratings of players who play weaker opponents

I mean roughly 60% chance to win vs Rogue or Byul? over 50 for Parting and Life? higher chance to beat Byul than hydra? You can see why these values are no good

Aligulac's biggest flaw is when comparing players from different regions.


Yeah definitely. Aligulac results would be highly accurate if the player pools from different regions played each other evenly, but that is far from the case.
Tanzklaue
Profile Joined January 2012
Germany1420 Posts
September 13 2015 20:13 GMT
#4809
lilbow is definitely the best foreigner atm. still behind naniwa and stephano in terms of all time, aswell as thorzain probably, as he has yet to prove that he can beat GSL championship caliber players.
imre
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
France9263 Posts
September 13 2015 20:13 GMT
#4810
On September 14 2015 05:12 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:11 OtherWorld wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:10 Yorkie wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:08 Yorkie wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:06 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On September 14 2015 04:56 [PkF] Wire wrote:
let's do the odds for every opponent :
vs herO : 5-95
vs PartinG : 10-90
vs Life : 10-90
vs Maru : 0-100
vs Hydra : 55-45
vs Rain : 20-80
vs Classic : 0-100
vs Polt : 45-55
vs Dream : 30-70 ? (which Dream is going to show up at Blizzcon ?)
vs Zest : 0-100
vs Rogue : 10-90
vs Byul : 1-99
vs FanTaSy : 30-70
vs INno : 10-90
vs Dear : 35-65
vs Gumiho : 45-55
vs Hyun : 35-65
vs sOs : 10-90


Aligulac says Lilbow wins a bo5:

vs herO : 44.08%
vs PartinG : 54.13%
vs Life : 51.58%
vs Maru : 32.21%
vs Hydra : 47.79%
vs Rain : 40.72%
vs Classic : 30.50%
vs Polt : 34.75%
vs Dream : 30.86%
vs Zest : 17.91%
vs Rogue : 63.59%
vs Byul : 58.93%
vs FanTaSy : 47.72%
vs INno : 17.31%
vs Dear : 47.34%
vs Gumiho : 41.80%
vs Hyun : 56.76%
vs sOs : 37.10%

So only Zest and Innovation are really out of his league

Aligulac always over-inflates the ratings of players who play weaker opponents

I mean roughly 60% chance to win vs Rogue or Byul? over 50 for Parting and Life? higher chance to beat Byul than hydra? You can see why these values are no good

Aligulac's biggest flaw is when comparing players from different regions.


Yeah definitely. Aligulac results would be highly accurate if the player pools from different regions played each other evenly, but that is far from the case.


It's still an excellent stat tool when you know its limits and I'm glad we have it here.
Zest fanboy.
shid0x
Profile Joined July 2012
Korea (South)5014 Posts
September 13 2015 20:14 GMT
#4811
On September 14 2015 05:12 [PkF] Wire wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:11 shid0x wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:01 shid0x wrote:
Apparently Millenium is sending lilbow to korea to train until blizzcon.

seriously ? Source ?



https://twitter.com/DrAeromi/status/643147259744518145?lang=fr

I know Aeromi is meh but he's quite close to millenium.

if that's true that's excellent news. I mean he could have gotten decent training partners but training in Korea will really help him add some depth to his playstyle.


Maybe forGG will let him live at his place :p
RIP MKP
jalstar
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States8198 Posts
September 13 2015 20:14 GMT
#4812
Neither set of odds looks great, I'd say Lilbow has a 10% chance against the top GSL/SSL Koreans, a 40% chance against the weaker GSL/SSL Koreans, and a 45-60% chance against the WCS Koreans.
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
September 13 2015 20:14 GMT
#4813
On September 14 2015 05:12 [PkF] Wire wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:11 shid0x wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:01 shid0x wrote:
Apparently Millenium is sending lilbow to korea to train until blizzcon.

seriously ? Source ?



https://twitter.com/DrAeromi/status/643147259744518145?lang=fr

I know Aeromi is meh but he's quite close to millenium.

if that's true that's excellent news. I mean he could have gotten decent training partners but training in Korea will really help him add some depth to his playstyle.

Depends where he trains though. I hope he doesn't end in the Prime house^^ One of the Telecoms is probably out of the question, so I'd guess CJ (did it before with Snute and Stardust) or SBENU.
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
Yorkie
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
United States12612 Posts
September 13 2015 20:14 GMT
#4814
On September 14 2015 05:13 sAsImre wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:12 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:11 OtherWorld wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:10 Yorkie wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:08 Yorkie wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:06 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On September 14 2015 04:56 [PkF] Wire wrote:
let's do the odds for every opponent :
vs herO : 5-95
vs PartinG : 10-90
vs Life : 10-90
vs Maru : 0-100
vs Hydra : 55-45
vs Rain : 20-80
vs Classic : 0-100
vs Polt : 45-55
vs Dream : 30-70 ? (which Dream is going to show up at Blizzcon ?)
vs Zest : 0-100
vs Rogue : 10-90
vs Byul : 1-99
vs FanTaSy : 30-70
vs INno : 10-90
vs Dear : 35-65
vs Gumiho : 45-55
vs Hyun : 35-65
vs sOs : 10-90


Aligulac says Lilbow wins a bo5:

vs herO : 44.08%
vs PartinG : 54.13%
vs Life : 51.58%
vs Maru : 32.21%
vs Hydra : 47.79%
vs Rain : 40.72%
vs Classic : 30.50%
vs Polt : 34.75%
vs Dream : 30.86%
vs Zest : 17.91%
vs Rogue : 63.59%
vs Byul : 58.93%
vs FanTaSy : 47.72%
vs INno : 17.31%
vs Dear : 47.34%
vs Gumiho : 41.80%
vs Hyun : 56.76%
vs sOs : 37.10%

So only Zest and Innovation are really out of his league

Aligulac always over-inflates the ratings of players who play weaker opponents

I mean roughly 60% chance to win vs Rogue or Byul? over 50 for Parting and Life? higher chance to beat Byul than hydra? You can see why these values are no good

Aligulac's biggest flaw is when comparing players from different regions.


Yeah definitely. Aligulac results would be highly accurate if the player pools from different regions played each other evenly, but that is far from the case.


It's still an excellent stat tool when you know its limits and I'm glad we have it here.

yeah Aligulac is godlike and extremely useful for stat tracking, looking at head to heads, following a player's form in general or in specific matchup. but comparing cross region is not what it is suited for
Hwang Kang Hooooooooooo. Follow mah boy Shellshock @Shellshock1122
[PkF] Wire
Profile Joined March 2013
France24239 Posts
September 13 2015 20:15 GMT
#4815
On September 14 2015 05:14 jalstar wrote:
Neither set of odds looks great, I'd say Lilbow has a 10% chance against the top GSL/SSL Koreans, a 40% chance against the weaker GSL/SSL Koreans, and a 45-60% chance against the WCS Koreans.

So you're ready to bet Lilbow wins at least one bo5 vs Zest if we organize 10 bo5s, one each day on 10 days ?
Makro
Profile Joined March 2011
France16890 Posts
September 13 2015 20:15 GMT
#4816
On September 14 2015 05:14 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:12 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:11 shid0x wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:01 shid0x wrote:
Apparently Millenium is sending lilbow to korea to train until blizzcon.

seriously ? Source ?



https://twitter.com/DrAeromi/status/643147259744518145?lang=fr

I know Aeromi is meh but he's quite close to millenium.

if that's true that's excellent news. I mean he could have gotten decent training partners but training in Korea will really help him add some depth to his playstyle.

Depends where he trains though. I hope he doesn't end in the Prime house^^ One of the Telecoms is probably out of the question, so I'd guess CJ (did it before with Snute and Stardust) or SBENU.

or you can rant an appartment 150$ for a month
Matthew 5:10 "Blessed are those who are persecuted because of shitposting, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven".
TL+ Member
[PkF] Wire
Profile Joined March 2013
France24239 Posts
September 13 2015 20:16 GMT
#4817
On September 14 2015 05:15 Makro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:14 OtherWorld wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:12 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:11 shid0x wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:01 shid0x wrote:
Apparently Millenium is sending lilbow to korea to train until blizzcon.

seriously ? Source ?



https://twitter.com/DrAeromi/status/643147259744518145?lang=fr

I know Aeromi is meh but he's quite close to millenium.

if that's true that's excellent news. I mean he could have gotten decent training partners but training in Korea will really help him add some depth to his playstyle.

Depends where he trains though. I hope he doesn't end in the Prime house^^ One of the Telecoms is probably out of the question, so I'd guess CJ (did it before with Snute and Stardust) or SBENU.

or you can rant an appartment 150$ for a month

yeah honestly even just ladder and the quality of the training partners he'll have is worth it. I mean look how Snute performed at IEM when he came back from KR.
imre
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
France9263 Posts
September 13 2015 20:16 GMT
#4818
On September 14 2015 05:15 Makro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 05:14 OtherWorld wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:12 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:11 shid0x wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:
On September 14 2015 05:01 shid0x wrote:
Apparently Millenium is sending lilbow to korea to train until blizzcon.

seriously ? Source ?



https://twitter.com/DrAeromi/status/643147259744518145?lang=fr

I know Aeromi is meh but he's quite close to millenium.

if that's true that's excellent news. I mean he could have gotten decent training partners but training in Korea will really help him add some depth to his playstyle.

Depends where he trains though. I hope he doesn't end in the Prime house^^ One of the Telecoms is probably out of the question, so I'd guess CJ (did it before with Snute and Stardust) or SBENU.

or you can rant an appartment 150$ for a month


that's not useful. You need to train within a proteam and with a way to speak to at least the coaching staff if you want a short stay to be useful. CJ is probably the best bet.
Zest fanboy.
Yorkie
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
United States12612 Posts
September 13 2015 20:16 GMT
#4819
MVP and CJ have been the teams who have ben most welcome to foreigners staying and practicing in the past. SBENU is another possibility.
Hwang Kang Hooooooooooo. Follow mah boy Shellshock @Shellshock1122
Hughgrant
Profile Joined June 2015
32 Posts
September 13 2015 20:16 GMT
#4820
I don't get why is there so much hate about Lilbow. It's probably the best that happened to the foreign community for a long time.

This guy has probably the level of a low Code S player but is it his fault if he's not a korean player and do not play the GSL?
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