On September 14 2014 20:53 Die4Ever wrote: lol that slight fade to Snute for a second
what are snute's chances for global finals when winning vs. daisy?
I was sleeping and so didn't run the update with the quarterfinals, but this is the same thing Snute gets 1st or 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 73.66 %
and if he loses this match Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 25.12 %
might as well add some more Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 54.54 %
Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 86.8 %
Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 99.99 %
hm so he is now at 40,99. it seems unintuitive that it again goes down if he loses now. so why is that?
On September 14 2014 20:53 Die4Ever wrote: lol that slight fade to Snute for a second
what are snute's chances for global finals when winning vs. daisy?
I was sleeping and so didn't run the update with the quarterfinals, but this is the same thing Snute gets 1st or 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 73.66 %
and if he loses this match Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 25.12 %
might as well add some more Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 54.54 %
Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 86.8 %
Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 99.99 %
hm so he is now at 40,99. it seems unintuitive that it again goes down if he loses now. so why is that?
right now there's a chance that he wins and a chance that he loses, so his blizzcon chances have to account for both possibilities, which means his current blizzcon chances are a mix of the blizzcon chances when he wins and when he loses
On September 14 2014 20:53 Die4Ever wrote: lol that slight fade to Snute for a second
what are snute's chances for global finals when winning vs. daisy?
I was sleeping and so didn't run the update with the quarterfinals, but this is the same thing Snute gets 1st or 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 73.66 %
and if he loses this match Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 25.12 %
might as well add some more Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 54.54 %
Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 86.8 %
Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.99 % to ~ 99.99 %
hm so he is now at 40,99. it seems unintuitive that it again goes down if he loses now. so why is that?
think of it this way, if you were to bet on MMA vs Patience, you might think the chances are kind of even, but when Patience loses the first map (he did lose the first map right? lol) then you won't feel so good about his chances, the probability of him winning went down because he lost the first map since he now needs to win 2 in a row
EPT
