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[IEM] World Championship Day 4 - Page 28

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
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Sabu113
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States11112 Posts
March 08 2013 10:34 GMT
#541
So guys how woud you change an immortal sentry all in in HoTS? 1 sentry for the mothership... so when do you need that mothership made to have recall after a 15 second walk to the base.
Biomine is a drunken chick who is on industrial strength amphetamines and would just grab your dick and jerk it as hard and violently as she could while screaming 'OMG FUCK ME', because she saw it in a Sasha Grey video ...-Wombat_Ni
Fionn
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States23455 Posts
March 08 2013 10:35 GMT
#542
Is the new trailer just Day9 getting attacked by CGI SC2 units across the globe?

Because that would be much better than their last trailer.
Writerhttps://twitter.com/FionnOnFire
Olli
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
Austria24422 Posts
March 08 2013 10:35 GMT
#543
The oscar goes to Day9.
Administrator"Declaring anything a disaster because aLive popped up out of nowhere is just downright silly."
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3825 Posts
March 08 2013 10:35 GMT
#544
On March 08 2013 19:30 Shellshock1122 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:29 nkr wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:27 Grovbolle wrote:
                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yonghwa 18.73% 16.74% 35.63% 28.90% 0.00%
viOLet 17.69% 10.97% 26.59% 44.75% 0.00%
PartinG 16.40% 9.66% 9.86% 13.71% 50.36%
YoDa 10.14% 8.93% 23.00% 57.93% 0.00%
Mvp 9.69% 10.60% 27.62% 52.09% 0.00%
Stephano 8.00% 9.17% 4.84% 28.36% 49.64%
Dream 5.78% 8.74% 12.72% 26.92% 45.83%
First 5.44% 5.11% 6.95% 28.33% 54.17%
MaNa 5.37% 12.06% 34.67% 47.91% 0.00%
Sting 2.62% 7.62% 14.70% 59.03% 16.03%
Ret 0.14% 0.41% 3.42% 12.06% 83.97%
Nerchio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

After Mana vs Nerchio


how does stephano have a bigger chance for top2 than top4 :D

because the opponent he has to face in the semis is rated lower than the player he would face in the ro8. looks like it's basically saying if he makes it to the ro4 he's going to win and make top 2 whereas he'll have a harder time vs his ro8 opponent


Something like that. I am not quite sure of the underlying model.
Of his entire most likely placement (100%), 50% of it is in top 16 (top 12 but you get the idea). viOLet also has a bigger chance to be 1st than being 2nd. It's the likelyhood of them having a certain position, given the probabilities of other matches and various opponents they might meet.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Ketch
Profile Joined October 2010
Netherlands7285 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-08 10:35:30
March 08 2013 10:35 GMT
#545
Hehe, but what is the other guy doing in the beginning, watching the ground?

Oh and the guy in the laptop/tablet commercial sounds like grubby in his first sentence
gTank
Profile Joined January 2011
Austria2671 Posts
March 08 2013 10:35 GMT
#546
In a perfect world, PartinG should own the hell out of Stephano.
(trying to develop my own curse here, lets see if it works)
One crossed wire, one wayward pinch of potassium chlorate, one errant twitch...and kablooie!
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3825 Posts
March 08 2013 10:36 GMT
#547
On March 08 2013 19:34 achan1058 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:30 Shellshock1122 wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:29 nkr wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:27 Grovbolle wrote:
                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yonghwa 18.73% 16.74% 35.63% 28.90% 0.00%
viOLet 17.69% 10.97% 26.59% 44.75% 0.00%
PartinG 16.40% 9.66% 9.86% 13.71% 50.36%
YoDa 10.14% 8.93% 23.00% 57.93% 0.00%
Mvp 9.69% 10.60% 27.62% 52.09% 0.00%
Stephano 8.00% 9.17% 4.84% 28.36% 49.64%
Dream 5.78% 8.74% 12.72% 26.92% 45.83%
First 5.44% 5.11% 6.95% 28.33% 54.17%
MaNa 5.37% 12.06% 34.67% 47.91% 0.00%
Sting 2.62% 7.62% 14.70% 59.03% 16.03%
Ret 0.14% 0.41% 3.42% 12.06% 83.97%
Nerchio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

After Mana vs Nerchio


how does stephano have a bigger chance for top2 than top4 :D

because the opponent he has to face in the semis is rated lower than the player he would face in the ro8. looks like it's basically saying if he makes it to the ro4 he's going to win and make top 2 whereas he'll have a harder time vs his ro8 opponent

I think he interpreted "top 4" differently. That is, that Win is a subset of top 2, which is a subset of top 4, etc, where as the above chart interpreted "top 4" as top 4 but not top 2.


This pretty much sums it up ^^
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Ambre
Profile Joined July 2011
France416 Posts
March 08 2013 10:36 GMT
#548
"Nice laptop

Thx, it's an haaaahbook convertible"

What does she exactly say ? I m dying to know ....
"There is only one corner of the universe you can be certain of improving, and that's your own self." - Aldous Huxley
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97277 Posts
March 08 2013 10:37 GMT
#549
On March 08 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:34 achan1058 wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:30 Shellshock1122 wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:29 nkr wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:27 Grovbolle wrote:
                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yonghwa 18.73% 16.74% 35.63% 28.90% 0.00%
viOLet 17.69% 10.97% 26.59% 44.75% 0.00%
PartinG 16.40% 9.66% 9.86% 13.71% 50.36%
YoDa 10.14% 8.93% 23.00% 57.93% 0.00%
Mvp 9.69% 10.60% 27.62% 52.09% 0.00%
Stephano 8.00% 9.17% 4.84% 28.36% 49.64%
Dream 5.78% 8.74% 12.72% 26.92% 45.83%
First 5.44% 5.11% 6.95% 28.33% 54.17%
MaNa 5.37% 12.06% 34.67% 47.91% 0.00%
Sting 2.62% 7.62% 14.70% 59.03% 16.03%
Ret 0.14% 0.41% 3.42% 12.06% 83.97%
Nerchio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

After Mana vs Nerchio


how does stephano have a bigger chance for top2 than top4 :D

because the opponent he has to face in the semis is rated lower than the player he would face in the ro8. looks like it's basically saying if he makes it to the ro4 he's going to win and make top 2 whereas he'll have a harder time vs his ro8 opponent

I think he interpreted "top 4" differently. That is, that Win is a subset of top 2, which is a subset of top 4, etc, where as the above chart interpreted "top 4" as top 4 but not top 2.


This pretty much sums it up ^^

oh ok. That makes sense
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Dragt
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany73 Posts
March 08 2013 10:37 GMT
#550
On March 08 2013 19:29 nkr wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:27 Grovbolle wrote:
                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yonghwa 18.73% 16.74% 35.63% 28.90% 0.00%
viOLet 17.69% 10.97% 26.59% 44.75% 0.00%
PartinG 16.40% 9.66% 9.86% 13.71% 50.36%
YoDa 10.14% 8.93% 23.00% 57.93% 0.00%
Mvp 9.69% 10.60% 27.62% 52.09% 0.00%
Stephano 8.00% 9.17% 4.84% 28.36% 49.64%
Dream 5.78% 8.74% 12.72% 26.92% 45.83%
First 5.44% 5.11% 6.95% 28.33% 54.17%
MaNa 5.37% 12.06% 34.67% 47.91% 0.00%
Sting 2.62% 7.62% 14.70% 59.03% 16.03%
Ret 0.14% 0.41% 3.42% 12.06% 83.97%
Nerchio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

After Mana vs Nerchio


how does stephano have a bigger chance for top2 than top4 :D


I think there needs to be a lot of work done before we can take these charts serious.
The first 4 Players have a higher chance of winning the tournament then reaching the finals.
The chances of Stephano winning is higher then reaching semi finals etc etc.
Blaec
Profile Joined April 2010
Australia4289 Posts
March 08 2013 10:38 GMT
#551
On March 08 2013 19:36 Ambre wrote:
"Nice laptop

Thx, it's an haaaahbook convertible"

What does she exactly say ? I m dying to know ....


Ultrabook is what she is trying to say.
felisconcolori
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States6169 Posts
March 08 2013 10:38 GMT
#552
On March 08 2013 19:36 Ambre wrote:
"Nice laptop

Thx, it's an haaaahbook convertible"

What does she exactly say ? I m dying to know ....


"Thanks, it's an ultrabook convertible."
Yes, I email sponsors... to thank them. Don't post drunk, kids. My king, what has become of you?
Kasaraki
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Denmark7115 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-08 10:39:34
March 08 2013 10:38 GMT
#553
Mvp probably seems older because he felt like MKP's elder schooling him, haha. He also carries himself with seriousness and patience, makes him feel experienced - which he is, he's almost a pro-gamer veteran. It could also be the fact that he has powerful facial features, big nose, big ears, big lips and a fairly large face. But he was only 19 at the start of SC2, which in pro-gaming years isn't amazingly young, but not old either.
shindigs
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4795 Posts
March 08 2013 10:38 GMT
#554
On March 08 2013 19:38 felisconcolori wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:36 Ambre wrote:
"Nice laptop

Thx, it's an haaaahbook convertible"

What does she exactly say ? I m dying to know ....


"Thanks, it's an ultrabook convertible."



"does it run on steam or coal" NO
Photographer@shindags || twitch.tv/shindigs
Leetley
Profile Joined October 2010
1796 Posts
March 08 2013 10:39 GMT
#555
On March 08 2013 19:38 felisconcolori wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:36 Ambre wrote:
"Nice laptop

Thx, it's an haaaahbook convertible"

What does she exactly say ? I m dying to know ....


"Thanks, it's an ultrabook convertible."

Crikey!
Ambre
Profile Joined July 2011
France416 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-08 10:40:02
March 08 2013 10:39 GMT
#556
Ah thanks, so that's what I suspected... but it seems weird.

Now I can go on with my day, with a serene mind.
"There is only one corner of the universe you can be certain of improving, and that's your own self." - Aldous Huxley
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
March 08 2013 10:39 GMT
#557
On March 08 2013 19:37 Dragt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:29 nkr wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:27 Grovbolle wrote:
                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yonghwa 18.73% 16.74% 35.63% 28.90% 0.00%
viOLet 17.69% 10.97% 26.59% 44.75% 0.00%
PartinG 16.40% 9.66% 9.86% 13.71% 50.36%
YoDa 10.14% 8.93% 23.00% 57.93% 0.00%
Mvp 9.69% 10.60% 27.62% 52.09% 0.00%
Stephano 8.00% 9.17% 4.84% 28.36% 49.64%
Dream 5.78% 8.74% 12.72% 26.92% 45.83%
First 5.44% 5.11% 6.95% 28.33% 54.17%
MaNa 5.37% 12.06% 34.67% 47.91% 0.00%
Sting 2.62% 7.62% 14.70% 59.03% 16.03%
Ret 0.14% 0.41% 3.42% 12.06% 83.97%
Nerchio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

After Mana vs Nerchio


how does stephano have a bigger chance for top2 than top4 :D


I think there needs to be a lot of work done before we can take these charts serious.
The first 4 Players have a higher chance of winning the tournament then reaching the finals.
The chances of Stephano winning is higher then reaching semi finals etc etc.

The chart is done correctly, but wasn't explained as well as when I asked the same question http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17968665 here you go
jjakji fan
DusTerr
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
2520 Posts
March 08 2013 10:39 GMT
#558
On March 08 2013 19:29 nkr wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:27 Grovbolle wrote:
                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yonghwa 18.73% 16.74% 35.63% 28.90% 0.00%
viOLet 17.69% 10.97% 26.59% 44.75% 0.00%
PartinG 16.40% 9.66% 9.86% 13.71% 50.36%
YoDa 10.14% 8.93% 23.00% 57.93% 0.00%
Mvp 9.69% 10.60% 27.62% 52.09% 0.00%
Stephano 8.00% 9.17% 4.84% 28.36% 49.64%
Dream 5.78% 8.74% 12.72% 26.92% 45.83%
First 5.44% 5.11% 6.95% 28.33% 54.17%
MaNa 5.37% 12.06% 34.67% 47.91% 0.00%
Sting 2.62% 7.62% 14.70% 59.03% 16.03%
Ret 0.14% 0.41% 3.42% 12.06% 83.97%
Nerchio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

After Mana vs Nerchio


how does stephano have a bigger chance for top2 than top4 :D

it's exclusive, not inclusive

dainbramage
Profile Joined August 2011
Australia1442 Posts
March 08 2013 10:40 GMT
#559
On March 08 2013 19:35 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:30 Shellshock1122 wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:29 nkr wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:27 Grovbolle wrote:
                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yonghwa 18.73% 16.74% 35.63% 28.90% 0.00%
viOLet 17.69% 10.97% 26.59% 44.75% 0.00%
PartinG 16.40% 9.66% 9.86% 13.71% 50.36%
YoDa 10.14% 8.93% 23.00% 57.93% 0.00%
Mvp 9.69% 10.60% 27.62% 52.09% 0.00%
Stephano 8.00% 9.17% 4.84% 28.36% 49.64%
Dream 5.78% 8.74% 12.72% 26.92% 45.83%
First 5.44% 5.11% 6.95% 28.33% 54.17%
MaNa 5.37% 12.06% 34.67% 47.91% 0.00%
Sting 2.62% 7.62% 14.70% 59.03% 16.03%
Ret 0.14% 0.41% 3.42% 12.06% 83.97%
Nerchio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

After Mana vs Nerchio


how does stephano have a bigger chance for top2 than top4 :D

because the opponent he has to face in the semis is rated lower than the player he would face in the ro8. looks like it's basically saying if he makes it to the ro4 he's going to win and make top 2 whereas he'll have a harder time vs his ro8 opponent


Something like that. I am not quite sure of the underlying model.
Of his entire most likely placement (100%), 50% of it is in top 16 (top 12 but you get the idea). viOLet also has a bigger chance to be 1st than being 2nd. It's the likelyhood of them having a certain position, given the probabilities of other matches and various opponents they might meet.


Feeding that into Aligulac, it shows nerchio as rank 13 after being knocked out - out of twelve players. I know you're not theBB, but I dunno, 'tis a bug report anyway.

Link: http://aligulac.com/predict/sebracket/?bo=5,5,5,7&ps=0,13,58,26,0,54,5,10,0,20,64,208,0,8,109,39&m1-2-1=3&m1-2-2=2&m1-4-1=0&m1-4-2=0&m1-6-1=0&m1-6-2=0&m1-8-1=0&m1-8-2=0
Sc2Null
Profile Joined April 2011
United States3754 Posts
March 08 2013 10:40 GMT
#560
On March 08 2013 19:25 Vanadiel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:24 WoodLeagueAllStar wrote:
You know people say they would rather watch Koreans but a Korean Zerg would NEVER allow the Protoss back in after getting the lead this has been a way more interesting series then it would have been IMHO.



Yeah, Nestea has never done such a thing.


i've never seen nestea lose a lead like this to protoss...terran on the other hand ~.~
The great Spaghetti vs Screwdriver debacle of June '12" - Porcelina
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