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[IEM] World Championship Day 4 - Page 30

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
Post a Reply
Prev 1 28 29 30 31 32 177 Next
Tsubbi
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany7996 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-08 10:45:43
March 08 2013 10:45 GMT
#581
parting on ohana? hes gonna be all wiggly and jiggly
Vundox
Profile Joined March 2011
United States182 Posts
March 08 2013 10:45 GMT
#582
Even though some of the strats are the same, I'm getting really hyped for all the matchups. Maybe it's just the novelty of a new expansion
implying Suzy isn't perfect
Dragt
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany73 Posts
March 08 2013 10:46 GMT
#583
On March 08 2013 19:40 Type|NarutO wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:37 Dragt wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:29 nkr wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:27 Grovbolle wrote:
                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yonghwa 18.73% 16.74% 35.63% 28.90% 0.00%
viOLet 17.69% 10.97% 26.59% 44.75% 0.00%
PartinG 16.40% 9.66% 9.86% 13.71% 50.36%
YoDa 10.14% 8.93% 23.00% 57.93% 0.00%
Mvp 9.69% 10.60% 27.62% 52.09% 0.00%
Stephano 8.00% 9.17% 4.84% 28.36% 49.64%
Dream 5.78% 8.74% 12.72% 26.92% 45.83%
First 5.44% 5.11% 6.95% 28.33% 54.17%
MaNa 5.37% 12.06% 34.67% 47.91% 0.00%
Sting 2.62% 7.62% 14.70% 59.03% 16.03%
Ret 0.14% 0.41% 3.42% 12.06% 83.97%
Nerchio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

After Mana vs Nerchio


how does stephano have a bigger chance for top2 than top4 :D


I think there needs to be a lot of work done before we can take these charts serious.
The first 4 Players have a higher chance of winning the tournament then reaching the finals.
The chances of Stephano winning is higher then reaching semi finals etc etc.


I don't see how having a higher chance to win overall compared to finish 2nd makes no sense to you? YongHwa for example likely to win the tournament 18,73% while losing in the finals would be 16,74%. Being only top for is 35,63%. That sounds about right to me... :x

I interpreted the chart wrong it seems, i thought top 4 would include winning for ecample.
Musicus
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany23576 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-08 10:46:52
March 08 2013 10:46 GMT
#584
On March 08 2013 19:44 Pandemona wrote:
What did stephano and parting say? Im watching at work and don't have any sound :3


Stephano hopes he learns something new about hots in the games and can maybe show it later in the seires. Parting thinks it's a good idead to show Stephano his soultrain (rachels asked about that).
Maru and Serral are probably top 5.
Sc2Null
Profile Joined April 2011
United States3754 Posts
March 08 2013 10:46 GMT
#585
can someone explain to me how QXC is "analysis"?
The great Spaghetti vs Screwdriver debacle of June '12" - Porcelina
BlackCompany
Profile Joined August 2012
Germany8388 Posts
March 08 2013 10:46 GMT
#586
Hydras have higher DPS? Did i miss something?
rasnj
Profile Joined May 2010
United States1959 Posts
March 08 2013 10:47 GMT
#587
On March 08 2013 19:45 Vundox wrote:
Even though some of the strats are the same, I'm getting really hyped for all the matchups. Maybe it's just the novelty of a new expansion

zvz? I'm hoping proper infestor control will make mass-muta unviable, but as it is I don't find zvz enjoyable. All other matchups seems decent to watch (except maybe lategame zvp).
DJHelium
Profile Joined December 2010
Sweden13480 Posts
March 08 2013 10:47 GMT
#588
Would love to see the Life hydra-muta build from Stephano, but my guess is that he wont since he doesn't really use mutas in ZvP. So prob roach hydra into vipers.
#1 player in the world atm: J-god | Follow me on twitter! @DJHelium
Sc2Null
Profile Joined April 2011
United States3754 Posts
March 08 2013 10:47 GMT
#589
ohana in map pool why?
The great Spaghetti vs Screwdriver debacle of June '12" - Porcelina
y0su
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
Finland7871 Posts
March 08 2013 10:48 GMT
#590
On March 08 2013 19:37 Dragt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:29 nkr wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:27 Grovbolle wrote:
                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yonghwa 18.73% 16.74% 35.63% 28.90% 0.00%
viOLet 17.69% 10.97% 26.59% 44.75% 0.00%
PartinG 16.40% 9.66% 9.86% 13.71% 50.36%
YoDa 10.14% 8.93% 23.00% 57.93% 0.00%
Mvp 9.69% 10.60% 27.62% 52.09% 0.00%
Stephano 8.00% 9.17% 4.84% 28.36% 49.64%
Dream 5.78% 8.74% 12.72% 26.92% 45.83%
First 5.44% 5.11% 6.95% 28.33% 54.17%
MaNa 5.37% 12.06% 34.67% 47.91% 0.00%
Sting 2.62% 7.62% 14.70% 59.03% 16.03%
Ret 0.14% 0.41% 3.42% 12.06% 83.97%
Nerchio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

After Mana vs Nerchio


how does stephano have a bigger chance for top2 than top4 :D


I think there needs to be a lot of work done before we can take these charts serious.
The first 4 Players have a higher chance of winning the tournament then reaching the finals.
The chances of Stephano winning is higher then reaching semi finals etc etc.


You're reading the chart wrong if you think Mvp has 0% chance to reach the finals because his chance at top16 is 0%.
The chart is where they FINISH not what they pass through.
FreudianTrip
Profile Joined July 2011
Switzerland1983 Posts
March 08 2013 10:48 GMT
#591
On March 08 2013 19:46 BlackCompany wrote:
Hydras have higher DPS? Did i miss something?

I think they just meant 'than Roaches'
Sc2Null
Profile Joined April 2011
United States3754 Posts
March 08 2013 10:48 GMT
#592
On March 08 2013 19:46 BlackCompany wrote:
Hydras have higher DPS? Did i miss something?


i think hydras has the 2nd highest single-target dps; next to stimmed marines
The great Spaghetti vs Screwdriver debacle of June '12" - Porcelina
Pandemona *
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Charlie Sheens House51490 Posts
March 08 2013 10:48 GMT
#593
On March 08 2013 19:46 Musicus wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:44 Pandemona wrote:
What did stephano and parting say? Im watching at work and don't have any sound :3


Stephano hopes he learns something new about hots in the games and can maybe show it later in the seires. Parting thinks it's a good idead to show Stephano his soultrain (rachels asked about that).


Thank you sir
ModeratorTeam Liquid Football Thread Guru! - Chelsea FC ♥
WIllBIll
Profile Joined June 2011
590 Posts
March 08 2013 10:48 GMT
#594
The French is gonna get + Show Spoiler +
fried.
BlackCompany
Profile Joined August 2012
Germany8388 Posts
March 08 2013 10:48 GMT
#595
On March 08 2013 19:48 FreudianTrip wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:46 BlackCompany wrote:
Hydras have higher DPS? Did i miss something?

I think they just meant 'than Roaches'

Ah, compared to roaches. I thought he meant Higher DPS than hydras in WoL..
Thanks!
Caletor
Profile Joined March 2013
32 Posts
March 08 2013 10:49 GMT
#596
Is there a reason for no crowd shots at all this tournament btw? Is there even a crowd? if yes low volume as usual in germany :S
Ketch
Profile Joined October 2010
Netherlands7285 Posts
March 08 2013 10:49 GMT
#597
Ohana as first map.... oh my god... Choo choo choo, train is leaving in 7:00 minutes
Vundox
Profile Joined March 2011
United States182 Posts
March 08 2013 10:50 GMT
#598
On March 08 2013 19:47 rasnj wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:45 Vundox wrote:
Even though some of the strats are the same, I'm getting really hyped for all the matchups. Maybe it's just the novelty of a new expansion

zvz? I'm hoping proper infestor control will make mass-muta unviable, but as it is I don't find zvz enjoyable. All other matchups seems decent to watch (except maybe lategame zvp).

haha yeah even zvz, reminds me of bw
implying Suzy isn't perfect
UniversalSnip
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
9871 Posts
March 08 2013 10:50 GMT
#599
is there a heart/head poll for this match
"How fucking dare you defile the sanctity of DotA with your fucking casual plebian terminology? May the curse of Gaben and Volvo be upon you. le filthy casual."
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
March 08 2013 10:50 GMT
#600
On March 08 2013 19:40 dainbramage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 19:35 Grovbolle wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:30 Shellshock1122 wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:29 nkr wrote:
On March 08 2013 19:27 Grovbolle wrote:
                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yonghwa 18.73% 16.74% 35.63% 28.90% 0.00%
viOLet 17.69% 10.97% 26.59% 44.75% 0.00%
PartinG 16.40% 9.66% 9.86% 13.71% 50.36%
YoDa 10.14% 8.93% 23.00% 57.93% 0.00%
Mvp 9.69% 10.60% 27.62% 52.09% 0.00%
Stephano 8.00% 9.17% 4.84% 28.36% 49.64%
Dream 5.78% 8.74% 12.72% 26.92% 45.83%
First 5.44% 5.11% 6.95% 28.33% 54.17%
MaNa 5.37% 12.06% 34.67% 47.91% 0.00%
Sting 2.62% 7.62% 14.70% 59.03% 16.03%
Ret 0.14% 0.41% 3.42% 12.06% 83.97%
Nerchio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

After Mana vs Nerchio


how does stephano have a bigger chance for top2 than top4 :D

because the opponent he has to face in the semis is rated lower than the player he would face in the ro8. looks like it's basically saying if he makes it to the ro4 he's going to win and make top 2 whereas he'll have a harder time vs his ro8 opponent


Something like that. I am not quite sure of the underlying model.
Of his entire most likely placement (100%), 50% of it is in top 16 (top 12 but you get the idea). viOLet also has a bigger chance to be 1st than being 2nd. It's the likelyhood of them having a certain position, given the probabilities of other matches and various opponents they might meet.


Feeding that into Aligulac, it shows nerchio as rank 13 after being knocked out - out of twelve players. I know you're not theBB, but I dunno, 'tis a bug report anyway.

Link: http://aligulac.com/predict/sebracket/?bo=5,5,5,7&ps=0,13,58,26,0,54,5,10,0,20,64,208,0,8,109,39&m1-2-1=3&m1-2-2=2&m1-4-1=0&m1-4-2=0&m1-6-1=0&m1-6-2=0&m1-8-1=0&m1-8-2=0


Hmm. Yes. There is no number 12 on that list though. Will tell him.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
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