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On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote: On a series that goes to game five, the odds are: 1% to get 5 times the same race 12% to get 4 times the same race 37% to get 2 times the same race and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.
So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though. You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct. woOt? 50% to get 3 times the same race? 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race 33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent am i right here?
He was calculating getting the same race 3 times out of 5, not 3 in a row.
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On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote: On a series that goes to game five, the odds are: 1% to get 5 times the same race 12% to get 4 times the same race 37% to get 2 times the same race and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.
So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though. You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct. woOt? 50% to get 3 times the same race? 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race 33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent am i right here? err, no? and whitera's race has no correlation at all, whitera isnt playing random.
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On May 13 2010 08:34 huameng wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote: On a series that goes to game five, the odds are: 1% to get 5 times the same race 12% to get 4 times the same race 37% to get 2 times the same race and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.
So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though. You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct. woOt? 50% to get 3 times the same race? 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race 33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent am i right here? He was calculating getting the same race 3 times out of 5, not 3 in a row. actually that is incorrect for 3 in a row as well.
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I'm excited for the IdrA vs. NonY match!
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On May 13 2010 08:45 Dopamine wrote:I'm excited for the IdrA vs. NonY match!  Have they announced when this game will be played?
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On May 13 2010 08:47 Capteone wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2010 08:45 Dopamine wrote:I'm excited for the IdrA vs. NonY match!  Have they announced when this game will be played? In the State of the Game podcast Nony said it would be sometime this weekend (Saturday I believe?)
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On May 13 2010 08:47 Capteone wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2010 08:45 Dopamine wrote:I'm excited for the IdrA vs. NonY match!  Have they announced when this game will be played?
Nope.. but according to Husky they anticipate the stream to be live this weekend.
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Really loved game 1 & 3. + Show Spoiler +A bit disappointed not to see any terran spawns from TLO in a 5 game series tho 
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On May 13 2010 08:37 Sfydjklm wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2010 08:34 huameng wrote:On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote: On a series that goes to game five, the odds are: 1% to get 5 times the same race 12% to get 4 times the same race 37% to get 2 times the same race and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.
So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though. You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct. woOt? 50% to get 3 times the same race? 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race 33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent am i right here? He was calculating getting the same race 3 times out of 5, not 3 in a row. actually that is incorrect for 3 in a row as well.
::blinks::
I can't stand people who can't do math -.-'
The probability of randomly getting the same race three times in a row (given that there are three different races, all of the same 1/3 probability) is just 1/3 * 1/3, not 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3, because the first game's race is irrelevant. The second and third games have to match whatever the first game's race is, and that's all you need to worry about. If you were random and then talked about the probability of getting PROTOSS all three times (or any specific race), THEN it would be (1/3)^3.
~A mathematician
Anyways, I'm really excited for the rest of the matches :-D
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On May 13 2010 09:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2010 08:37 Sfydjklm wrote:On May 13 2010 08:34 huameng wrote:On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote: On a series that goes to game five, the odds are: 1% to get 5 times the same race 12% to get 4 times the same race 37% to get 2 times the same race and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.
So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though. You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct. woOt? 50% to get 3 times the same race? 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race 33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent am i right here? He was calculating getting the same race 3 times out of 5, not 3 in a row. actually that is incorrect for 3 in a row as well. ::blinks:: I can't stand people who can't do math -.-' The probability of randomly getting the same race three times in a row (given that there are three different races, all of the same 1/3 probability) is just 1/3 * 1/3, not 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3, because the first game's race is irrelevant. The second and third games have to match whatever the first game's race is, and that's all you need to worry about. If you were random and then talked about the probability of getting PROTOSS all three times (or any specific race), THEN it would be (1/3)^3. ~A mathematician Anyways, I'm really excited for the rest of the matches :-D
Haha I didn't believe you were a mathematician till I looked at your signatures.
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On May 13 2010 09:09 Exteray wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2010 09:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On May 13 2010 08:37 Sfydjklm wrote:On May 13 2010 08:34 huameng wrote:On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote: On a series that goes to game five, the odds are: 1% to get 5 times the same race 12% to get 4 times the same race 37% to get 2 times the same race and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.
So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though. You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct. woOt? 50% to get 3 times the same race? 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race 33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent am i right here? He was calculating getting the same race 3 times out of 5, not 3 in a row. actually that is incorrect for 3 in a row as well. ::blinks:: I can't stand people who can't do math -.-' The probability of randomly getting the same race three times in a row (given that there are three different races, all of the same 1/3 probability) is just 1/3 * 1/3, not 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3, because the first game's race is irrelevant. The second and third games have to match whatever the first game's race is, and that's all you need to worry about. If you were random and then talked about the probability of getting PROTOSS all three times (or any specific race), THEN it would be (1/3)^3. ~A mathematician Anyways, I'm really excited for the rest of the matches :-D Haha I didn't believe you were a mathematician till I looked at your signatures.
Haha :-D Yup ^-^
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Lol some seriously bad math going on in this thread... people need to go back to school.
chance is 1/27 to get protoss 3 times in a row (after game 2) 1/9 (aka 3/27) to get the same race 3 times in a row (T, P or Z)
27 possibilities: TTT ZTT PTT TTZ ZTZ PTZ TTP ZTP PTP TZT ZZT PZT TZZ ZZZ PZZ TZP ZZP PZP TPT ZPT PPT TPZ ZPZ PPZ TPP ZPP PPP
I hope whiteRa wins... that prize money is worth nearly 4 months wages in Ukraine http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
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The probability of him getting any possible race combination is 1/27, which means there is a 100% chance that TLO was going to get a very rare race combination no matter what he got! Suddenly 1/27 doesn't seem so rare after all.
It's like saying man, TLO got zerg terran then protoss! Man there was only a 1 in 27 chance of that happening! Dang! =p
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Wargizmo, White-Ra will win, don't worry these other players aren't even close to White-Ra's caliber. White-Ra is a protoss dragon.
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There is a 100% probability of him getting the race he chooses. Think about those odds. If you pick a race there is a 1 in 1 chance you will get that race. If you pick it 3 times that is 3 in 3. With those odds how could you lose? You can't.
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White-Ra has been underrated consistently for no good reason - he's incredibly solid. You can tell because he consistently wins in tournaments, and yet his opponent's losses are chalked up to flukes or luck.
That means he's holding it down just fine. I think he could take Idra in a BO7 because I could see Idra struggling to recover if he loses 2 in a row.
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On May 13 2010 07:20 HuskyTheHusky wrote:We're hoping to have NonY vs Idra sometime this weekend 
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
</vader>
Make it sooner!!!!
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Anyone aware of where we can get the HDH replays? Specifically TLO v WhiteRa? I really want to analyze game 1. Badly.
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TLO vs Nony in finals hopefully X_X
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zomg zomg no T for TLO
Blizzard's random-number-generator is OP, needs to be nerfed.
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