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HDH Invitational #1 - Page 216

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
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huameng
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
United States1133 Posts
May 12 2010 23:34 GMT
#4301
On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:
On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote:
On a series that goes to game five, the odds are:
1% to get 5 times the same race
12% to get 4 times the same race
37% to get 2 times the same race
and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.

So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though.

You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct.


woOt?

50% to get 3 times the same race?

33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race

33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent

am i right here?


He was calculating getting the same race 3 times out of 5, not 3 in a row.
skating
Sfydjklm
Profile Blog Joined April 2005
United States9218 Posts
May 12 2010 23:35 GMT
#4302
On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:
On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote:
On a series that goes to game five, the odds are:
1% to get 5 times the same race
12% to get 4 times the same race
37% to get 2 times the same race
and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.

So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though.

You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct.


woOt?

50% to get 3 times the same race?

33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race

33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent

am i right here?

err, no?
and whitera's race has no correlation at all, whitera isnt playing random.
twitter.com/therealdhalism | "Trying out Z = lots of losses vs inferior players until you figure out how to do it well (if it even works)."- Liquid'Tyler
Sfydjklm
Profile Blog Joined April 2005
United States9218 Posts
May 12 2010 23:37 GMT
#4303
On May 13 2010 08:34 huameng wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:
On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:
On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote:
On a series that goes to game five, the odds are:
1% to get 5 times the same race
12% to get 4 times the same race
37% to get 2 times the same race
and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.

So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though.

You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct.


woOt?

50% to get 3 times the same race?

33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race

33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent

am i right here?


He was calculating getting the same race 3 times out of 5, not 3 in a row.

actually that is incorrect for 3 in a row as well.
twitter.com/therealdhalism | "Trying out Z = lots of losses vs inferior players until you figure out how to do it well (if it even works)."- Liquid'Tyler
Dopamine
Profile Joined May 2010
Canada2 Posts
May 12 2010 23:45 GMT
#4304
I'm excited for the IdrA vs. NonY match!
Capteone
Profile Joined March 2010
United States197 Posts
May 12 2010 23:47 GMT
#4305
On May 13 2010 08:45 Dopamine wrote:
I'm excited for the IdrA vs. NonY match!

Have they announced when this game will be played?
Devious-Gaming - www.Devious-Gaming.co.cc
McCain
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States187 Posts
May 12 2010 23:51 GMT
#4306
On May 13 2010 08:47 Capteone wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 13 2010 08:45 Dopamine wrote:
I'm excited for the IdrA vs. NonY match!

Have they announced when this game will be played?

In the State of the Game podcast Nony said it would be sometime this weekend (Saturday I believe?)
Dopamine
Profile Joined May 2010
Canada2 Posts
May 12 2010 23:51 GMT
#4307
On May 13 2010 08:47 Capteone wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 13 2010 08:45 Dopamine wrote:
I'm excited for the IdrA vs. NonY match!

Have they announced when this game will be played?


Nope.. but according to Husky they anticipate the stream to be live this weekend.
Phyxx
Profile Joined April 2010
Denmark681 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-05-12 23:53:53
May 12 2010 23:53 GMT
#4308
Really loved game 1 & 3. + Show Spoiler +
A bit disappointed not to see any terran spawns from TLO in a 5 game series tho
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46450 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-05-13 00:05:44
May 13 2010 00:02 GMT
#4309
On May 13 2010 08:37 Sfydjklm wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 13 2010 08:34 huameng wrote:
On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:
On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:
On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote:
On a series that goes to game five, the odds are:
1% to get 5 times the same race
12% to get 4 times the same race
37% to get 2 times the same race
and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.

So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though.

You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct.


woOt?

50% to get 3 times the same race?

33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race

33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent

am i right here?


He was calculating getting the same race 3 times out of 5, not 3 in a row.

actually that is incorrect for 3 in a row as well.


::blinks::

I can't stand people who can't do math -.-'

The probability of randomly getting the same race three times in a row (given that there are three different races, all of the same 1/3 probability) is just 1/3 * 1/3, not 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3, because the first game's race is irrelevant. The second and third games have to match whatever the first game's race is, and that's all you need to worry about. If you were random and then talked about the probability of getting PROTOSS all three times (or any specific race), THEN it would be (1/3)^3.

~A mathematician

Anyways, I'm really excited for the rest of the matches :-D
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
Exteray
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States1094 Posts
May 13 2010 00:09 GMT
#4310
On May 13 2010 09:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 13 2010 08:37 Sfydjklm wrote:
On May 13 2010 08:34 huameng wrote:
On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:
On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:
On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote:
On a series that goes to game five, the odds are:
1% to get 5 times the same race
12% to get 4 times the same race
37% to get 2 times the same race
and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.

So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though.

You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct.


woOt?

50% to get 3 times the same race?

33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race

33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent

am i right here?


He was calculating getting the same race 3 times out of 5, not 3 in a row.

actually that is incorrect for 3 in a row as well.


::blinks::

I can't stand people who can't do math -.-'

The probability of randomly getting the same race three times in a row (given that there are three different races, all of the same 1/3 probability) is just 1/3 * 1/3, not 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3, because the first game's race is irrelevant. The second and third games have to match whatever the first game's race is, and that's all you need to worry about. If you were random and then talked about the probability of getting PROTOSS all three times (or any specific race), THEN it would be (1/3)^3.

~A mathematician

Anyways, I'm really excited for the rest of the matches :-D


Haha I didn't believe you were a mathematician till I looked at your signatures.
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46450 Posts
May 13 2010 00:12 GMT
#4311
On May 13 2010 09:09 Exteray wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 13 2010 09:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On May 13 2010 08:37 Sfydjklm wrote:
On May 13 2010 08:34 huameng wrote:
On May 13 2010 08:16 Bloodyrock wrote:
On May 13 2010 06:49 Glufs wrote:
On May 13 2010 06:47 Matoo- wrote:
On a series that goes to game five, the odds are:
1% to get 5 times the same race
12% to get 4 times the same race
37% to get 2 times the same race
and 50% to get 3 times the same race, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened today.

So yeah by being very good at one matchup (ZvP) but sucky at another (PvP) it's basically a coinflip, and the coin actually came pretty close to turn into a triple-zerg victory so was TLO really that unlucky? No idea about how he would've fared with T though.

You have to divide that 50% into 3 though, if we assume he didnt want pvp and your math is correct.


woOt?

50% to get 3 times the same race?

33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race

33% * 33% * 33% for get 3 times the same race as your opponent

am i right here?


He was calculating getting the same race 3 times out of 5, not 3 in a row.

actually that is incorrect for 3 in a row as well.


::blinks::

I can't stand people who can't do math -.-'

The probability of randomly getting the same race three times in a row (given that there are three different races, all of the same 1/3 probability) is just 1/3 * 1/3, not 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3, because the first game's race is irrelevant. The second and third games have to match whatever the first game's race is, and that's all you need to worry about. If you were random and then talked about the probability of getting PROTOSS all three times (or any specific race), THEN it would be (1/3)^3.

~A mathematician

Anyways, I'm really excited for the rest of the matches :-D


Haha I didn't believe you were a mathematician till I looked at your signatures.


Haha :-D Yup ^-^
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
Wargizmo
Profile Joined March 2010
1237 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-05-13 00:29:00
May 13 2010 00:27 GMT
#4312
Lol some seriously bad math going on in this thread... people need to go back to school.

chance is 1/27 to get protoss 3 times in a row (after game 2)
1/9 (aka 3/27) to get the same race 3 times in a row (T, P or Z)

27 possibilities:
TTT ZTT PTT
TTZ ZTZ PTZ
TTP ZTP PTP
TZT ZZT PZT
TZZ ZZZ PZZ
TZP ZZP PZP
TPT ZPT PPT
TPZ ZPZ PPZ
TPP ZPP PPP



I hope whiteRa wins... that prize money is worth nearly 4 months wages in Ukraine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
shinosai
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1577 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-05-13 00:36:39
May 13 2010 00:29 GMT
#4313
The probability of him getting any possible race combination is 1/27, which means there is a 100% chance that TLO was going to get a very rare race combination no matter what he got! Suddenly 1/27 doesn't seem so rare after all.

It's like saying man, TLO got zerg terran then protoss! Man there was only a 1 in 27 chance of that happening! Dang! =p
Be versatile, know when to retreat, and carry a big gun.
3FFA
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States3931 Posts
May 13 2010 01:03 GMT
#4314
Wargizmo, White-Ra will win, don't worry these other players aren't even close to White-Ra's caliber. White-Ra is a protoss dragon.
"As long as it comes from a pure place and from a honest place, you know, you can write whatever you want."
floor exercise
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
Canada5847 Posts
May 13 2010 01:22 GMT
#4315
There is a 100% probability of him getting the race he chooses. Think about those odds. If you pick a race there is a 1 in 1 chance you will get that race. If you pick it 3 times that is 3 in 3. With those odds how could you lose? You can't.
RPGabe
Profile Joined January 2010
United States192 Posts
May 13 2010 01:24 GMT
#4316
White-Ra has been underrated consistently for no good reason - he's incredibly solid. You can tell because he consistently wins in tournaments, and yet his opponent's losses are chalked up to flukes or luck.

That means he's holding it down just fine. I think he could take Idra in a BO7 because I could see Idra struggling to recover if he loses 2 in a row.
fant0m
Profile Joined May 2010
964 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-05-13 01:36:42
May 13 2010 01:36 GMT
#4317
On May 13 2010 07:20 HuskyTheHusky wrote:
We're hoping to have NonY vs Idra sometime this weekend


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

</vader>

Make it sooner!!!!


mint_julep
Profile Joined October 2009
United States254 Posts
May 13 2010 01:38 GMT
#4318
Anyone aware of where we can get the HDH replays? Specifically TLO v WhiteRa? I really want to analyze game 1. Badly.
I hope Plexa's sig is right.
Fruscainte
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
4596 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-05-13 01:39:44
May 13 2010 01:39 GMT
#4319
TLO vs Nony in finals hopefully X_X
dARKmATTER
Profile Joined May 2010
United States2 Posts
May 13 2010 01:43 GMT
#4320
zomg zomg no T for TLO

Blizzard's random-number-generator is OP, needs to be nerfed.
Oh team liquid, you cad!
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