by Waxangel

LG-IM_dreamertt vs SlayerS_Genius

The WCS Korea Nationals have provided some great opportunities for lesser known players, and so far they've had some added luck in having to face each other and not Code S caliber opposition. Miya took on horror, TAiLS beat Happy, and Reality defeated YuGiOh to make their way to the winners Ro16. Unfortunately for dreamertt, he gets no such welfare, having to go up against one of the most consistent Code S players, and former finalist in Genius.

You can't help but be reminded of the Happy vs TAiLS match that happened just a few days ago, and that bodes poorly for Dreamertt. Then, another third string LG-IM Terran in Happy was defeated by an MVP Protoss in TAiLS, at the end of a series where sloppy play and micro mistakes were the most notable points. It's actually an even worse situation for Dreamertt, as he's even lower on the LG-IM depth charts than Happy, and has almost no broadcast game experience compared to a fair amount for Happy. His opponent is far better as well, with Genius having played in nine Code S tournaments and having finished finished second place in one of them.

Dreamertt's preliminary run was okay, as he took out a capable Protoss players Hwangsin and Inori along the way. But those results are hardly impressive enough to predict a victory in his first match, unlike how some expected preliminary wins over Shine and Symbol were enough to convince some (rightfully so) that Reality would overcome YuGiOh in the Ro32. Additionally, Genius' best match-up is PvT, and he's beat two other LG-IM Terrans in Happy and Mvp in the last few months.

In the end, there only appears to be one logical result: Genius crushing Dreamertt, and making Team Liquid wonder why they don't have this guy on their team for the upcoming IPL TAC finals.

Prediction: Genius 2 – 0 Dreamertt


ST_Squirtle vs BBoongBBoongPrime

In another match that looks to be a beatdown, the former Code S finalist and IPL4 moral victory award winner Squirtle takes on the ZvP impaired, now Code B player BBoongBBoongPrime.

We all know Squirtle, and we don't need to explain much about him. Still, since we'll never get tired of touting this stat, Squirtle is a player who was so good he won around 49 games in three days to come within a hair of winning IPL4. Also, since this is a story that will follow him around for the rest of his life, he's a player who had a Code S title 90% in the bag after stopping Mvp's proxy-rax all-in in game seven of the grand finals, only to (literally) make the worst decisions in Code S history and lose the championship to a desperation follow-up all-in. Basically, you should feel free to leave Squirtle in the oven and forget about him, go do some yard work or watch some TV, and check back when he's just about done.

B4 can't hold a candle to Squirtle's achievements, but we maintain that he's a bit underrated. Sure, there's a bit of a Zerg talent gap on the Prime team, but he's managed to play fairly well for them as often their only Zerg option in Team Leagues. Also, his ZvT is actually really, really good, with a 13 – 4 record this year including wins over MMA, Gumiho, Heart and YoDa.

The only reason he's in Code B now after making Code S twice this year is because of his horrendously bad ZvP, which may supplant JYP's PvT as the new, universally acknowledged joke match-up. He's 12 – 22 this year for a 35.29% win rate. Two of those wins were pretty much gifted to him when he got matched up against the walkover wonder uRGGandDol – a masters player who made it into Code A due to an incredible combination of luck and multiple walkovers – and B4 still managed to lose a map against him.

It's a terribly unlucky draw for B4, who would have struggled to defeat even the weakest Protoss player in this WCS pool, but would have had a fighting chance against even the best Terrans. Luckily, he's likely to play Dreamertt in the losers round, so can keep his tournament hopes alive.

Prediction: Squirtle 2 – 0 BBoongBBoong


SAMSUNG_RorO vs ST_Hack

We're going to quietly ignore fake-hero's PvP coin-flip win yesterday (something that was inevitably going to happen, sooner or later), and say that the seeded KeSPA players have shown they have a very poor chance at making the ten-man Korean representative list. Only Reality has truly won us over, being the only KeSPA player to actually make it through the preliminaries, and backing up those strong preliminary performances with an equally good one in the studio.

Does RorO have a chance to change anything? The record isn't particularly good for RorO at 7 – 5, but it's not dismal either. The real problem here is that he's only played one single televised ZvT game (a victory against Flash), which makes it extremely hard to draw any conclusions. Basically, you have to trust KeSPA's judgment here, which is not easy to do with an organization that once defined "free agency" as a policy where teams have to pay compensation fees to acquire "free" agents at the end of their contracts. Even with players they practically hand-picked, KeSPA could go zero for six.

At least RorO gets to play Hack, the least established of all the KeSPA players' opponents. However, it might very well be fool's gold, as Hack's thin resume obscures the fact that he's been quickly rising up as a Terran to look out for. From near obscurity in 2011, Hack is knocking on the door of Code S two seasons in a row now, and might very well make it through in the upcoming Up/Downs. Coupled with good-but-not-great performances in various online qualifiers, Hack could be seen as a player on the verge of making a breakthrough.

We'd love to see Roro win to keep up the intrigue in the great KeSPA vs Gom storyline at the WCS, but it's far more likely that the only KeSPA gloating there will be tomorrow is Reality's, as he confirms he's the best SC2 player on Samsung Khan, and maybe in all of KeSPA.

Prediction: Hack 2 – 1 RorO


FXOLeenock vs SK_MC

Through some excellent stroke of luck, the WCS Korea Nationals have managed to have one marquee match per day in the Ro32. Started with Jaedong vs aLive, we've also seen Polt take on Mvp, and then Creator go up against DongRaegu. Tonight is no exception, with MC facing Leenock in the match-up that might be the best of them all in terms of present skill.

At this point, MC is just a name that speaks for itself, with almost no introduction needed. Well, except to maybe say that while his defeat to Seed stops him from being the undisputed best Protoss player in the world, he's still #2 at the very worst. He comes into this tournament off winning a cool $6.5k at ASUS ROG Summer, though he's won so many tournaments he could consider that to be cheap change.

On the other hand, Leenock is a player that's far harder to place. From once being a candidate for best Zerg in the world, he fell off considerably after reaching his peak at MLG Providence where he won the 2011 MLG Pro Circuit Championship. However, he's been rising fast in the last month, scarily fast at that. He was showing some painfully poor games as near back as June this year when he flopped out of Code S, but he turned everything around in July as he went on a furious run. After getting his groove back against easier opponents like TAiLS and Dream, he's added wins over Code S class players like DongRaeGu and Ryung in his most recent games.

His momentum has been a slowed a bit as he hasn't had a tournament game to play in a few weeks now, but it's frightening to think how much more he might have improved with that much time to focus on preparing for this tournament. Leenock's downfall was one of the most disappointing stories of 2012, and this match could be his chance to turn things around for good.

On paper, this match should favor MC, as one of Leenock's biggest weaknesses even when he was at his peak was his susceptibility to Protoss all-ins. As we all know very well, MC is the pioneer and godfather in that field of strategy, and his 5 – 2 record against Leenock goes to show he's completely willing to leverage that advantage. However, the way Leenock has improved in July (especially when you look at the before and after of his ZvT when he played Ryung twice) makes you think he's in a special zone right now, where he's motivated enough to shore up any facet of his game. Whatever the result, MC will definitely not be facing the Leenock of the past.

Prediction: Leenock 2 – 1 MC